2024 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Well I see everyone is done with baseball, but some AFL news.

Aldermann (80 raw power in case anyone forgot) has opened in four games with five home runs in 19 PA (.412/.474/1.294 (1.768)) with a 2/4 BB/K rate. Two mega prospects (C. Emerson (SEA) and E. Salas (SDP)) are on the team so it's a good bench mark so see how he does versus them. For perspective, Aldermann hit 8 HR in 300 PA across for minor league levels so this is hopefully a guy starting to get healthy (he was hurt earlier in the year) and starting to figure it out. Marsee hit the AFL hard last year too, but this might be a nice end of season good news if he shows well.

I was done with baseball long ago lol.

anyway, partly because it’s the offseason now…

http://soflamarlins.com/forum/miami-...fseason-thread

[lou]

Well I see everyone is done with baseball, but some AFL news.

Aldermann (80 raw power in case anyone forgot) has opened in four games with five home runs in 19 PA (.412/.474/1.294 (1.768)) with a 2/4 BB/K rate. Two mega prospects (C. Emerson (SEA) and E. Salas (SDP)) are on the team so it's a good bench mark so see how he does versus them. For perspective, Aldermann hit 8 HR in 300 PA across for minor league levels so this is hopefully a guy starting to get healthy (he was hurt earlier in the year) and starting to figure it out. Marsee hit the AFL hard last year too, but this might be a nice end of season good news if he shows well.

[lou]

I think I am higher on Conine than some.

IMO his bat, with a normalized BABIP, will be a similar offensive profile to Burger. Except with pretty good defense at the OF corner. Not a premier offensive player, but a solid 6 or 7th bat like Burger.

It's all about the whiffs and chase rates. None of Conine, Stowers, Norby, Myers, or Hill are going to be good players whiffing over 30% of the time with terrible chase rates. I know that isn't a ground breaking statement. Burger has gotten the whiffs down to 25.9% for perspective (it was over 30% same age as Conine to be fair), and while he chases everything (8th percentile woof), he really hammers the ball when he hits it (80th percentile across all the metrics) so he can survive. Conine isn't showing those hard hit rates right now so he's really going to have to make more contact, but it's a SSS so who knows.

I don't love how Conine whiffed more against right handers than left handers which is a bad omen to me as he'd likely have to survive in a splits role similar to Sanchez. It's a SSS so maybe he'll improve, but the MiLB time isn't encouraging. Stowers, Norby, and Dane hit the ball harder when they got it last year so they are all a rung or two up for me, and Hill is just a bench lefty killer. They will frankly be lucky to get 1 player out of these guys as believing they all cut their whiff rate by 5% is a lot. It's probably going to be Norby as he has the best track record and is the youngest so he would be most apt to adjust, make more contact, beat out some hits (94th percentile sprint speed), and become at minimum a serviceable .260+ hitter.

I'd worry about the 40 man crunch for Conine. They will probably keep 21 pitchers even if they churn the last few like Baumann or Petersen.

C - Ramirez, Fortes, Banfield
1B - Burger, Bride, DDLS
2B - Edwards, Otto, Serna, Brujan
SS -
3B - Norby, Pauley
LF - Stowers, Dane, Conine
CF - Hill, Sanoja, Mesa Jr.
RF - Sanchez
(19)

DFA - Pereda, Hensley

They probably need four bats - bridge catcher, SS, 3B/OF, and a CF. They can probably get away with a MiLB deal with a veteran catcher with the understanding they'll move to the 40 when Eury is able to be IL'd, but three of those bolds aren't going to make it to spring training via just 40 man churning absent other moves (i.e. trading one of the 2B for depth elsewhere as the team's 3rd 2B can't be a top 7-8 longterm name on the overall position depth chart, etc.).


We shall see.


Hope anyone in Tampa area is OK. Tropicana looks terrible.

[Todd]

I think I am higher on Conine than some.

IMO his bat, with a normalized BABIP, will be a similar offensive profile to Burger. Except with pretty good defense at the OF corner. Not a premier offensive player, but a solid 6 or 7th bat like Burger.

[lou]

Do away with Interleague. Stay at 162. Expand to 32.

3 teams in your division 18 times(9h/9r)

Rotate the other 3 divisions. Play one division 12 times(6h/6r). Play one division 9 times(2 teams 6h/3r; 2 teams 3h/6r). Play one division 6 times(3h/3r).

Do away with the Wild Card. Only 4 division winners make playoffs.

Problem is the playoff revenue. They need that.


Also to add to my longer post above - shorten spring training by 1 week. The pitchers can ramp up in 3+ weeks easily and with lowering the schedule by say 9 games, they can add 3 more off days per team to April so that is an organic ramp up that month, etc.

[Nick]

Do away with Interleague. Stay at 162. Expand to 32.

3 teams in your division 18 times(9h/9r)

Rotate the other 3 divisions. Play one division 12 times(6h/6r). Play one division 9 times(2 teams 6h/3r; 2 teams 3h/6r). Play one division 6 times(3h/3r).

Do away with the Wild Card. Only 4 division winners make playoffs.

MLB would never do this, but I'd be a fan.

[Todd]

Do away with Interleague. Stay at 162. Expand to 32.

3 teams in your division 18 times(9h/9r)

Rotate the other 3 divisions. Play one division 12 times(6h/6r). Play one division 9 times(2 teams 6h/3r; 2 teams 3h/6r). Play one division 6 times(3h/3r).

Do away with the Wild Card. Only 4 division winners make playoffs.

[lou]

me too, i'm saying i would want a larger sample than a smaller. I just hate how quickly 6 months of a season can be extinguished in 2 days of games. I think wild card round should be 5, and DS, CS, and WS all 7 games. I hate the 5 game division series as well. I think the 162 should be shortened to allow for longer playoff series if that's what it takes. 162 is very unnecessary to me.

Bingo. And there is an easy way to do it - EXPANSION.

32 Teams
4 team Divisions

3x11 games (division) = 33 games
12x6 games (league) = 72 games
16x3 games (interleague) = 48 games
=153 games

This actually increases league inventory 36 games versus the 162 schedule adding the 2 more teams, i.e. important for MLBPA so owner's saying salaries have to go down 5% because of 9 less games, get made up union wise with another 52+ players joining the big leagues so players aren't getting paid less. I don't think the talent pool will be diluted much where the last two guys on every roster become something like Bellozo, Petersen, and Pereda versus Oller, Baumann, and A. Sanchez sort of thing.... especially when this chunks out the worst 9 starting pitchers a year for teams.

I think it is Montreal (largest metro, only hockey competition, "international" for growth of game, etc.) and then Nashville/Charlotte/Raleigh as it makes having something between Atlanta and Cincy/Washington with a larger growing metro population. Something like this:


AL North <--- Keeps traditional rivalries
Boston
New York (NYY)
Baltimore
Toronto

AL Great Lakes
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago (CWS)
Milwaukee <--- Someone has gotta move, can't break up NL Central teams

AL Central <--- Don't love double TX but the world isn't perfect
Minnesota
Kansas City
Houston
Texas

AL West <-- This regionally makes more sense to me even if 2 teams move
Las Vegas
Anaheim
Colorado
Arizona


NL North <--- Consolidates North and splits Canada
New York (NYM)
Philadelphia
Washington
MONTREAL

NL South <--- Consolidates South
Atlanta
Miami
Tampa
NASHVILLE/CHARLOTTE/RALEIGH

NL Central <--- Keeps traditional rivalries
Chicago (CHC)
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Pittsburgh

NL West Coast
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Seattle <-- This makes more sense to me to be coastal as LV, Col, and AZ can be bracketed and that's just splitting up the LA teams



Something like that in a balanced schedule absent your division, and then maybe the first round to really emphasize winning your division are all home games (make it a huge benefit, and also this helps travel to keep round 1 moving as the playoffs are longer now) and expand the playoffs to half the league (8 each league). Division winners 1-4 based on best record.

1x8 - All higher seed home games, best of 5.
2x7
3x6
4x5

Next 3 rounds traditional 7 game series, re-seeded each round, higher seed gets the home field advantage, highest regular season wins gets home field for WS, etc. etc.


I'll work in my mind. But yes, some lower games will be helpful (with pitcher health too!) combined with the constant comment here about jersey ads, more in-game ads, and keep the game moving. 20 minutes of commercials can easily be shaved through quicker half inning changeovers, etc. I really think they need to treat games like Hockey intermissions/European soccer with an after the third inning "stretch" and traditional seventh inning stretch, and play through 1-3, 4-7.5, and 7.5-9 with jersey ads, on field ads, on screen ads, and just have a longer commercial break (10 minutes tops, looks like 12 minutes is an average length which is also too long) after 3rd and mid 7th, etc. I think they can drop average games to the 2:15-2:20 range doing this (it's around 2:35-2:40 currently).


I think something like this is coming but will take a few years. The can do the in-game stuff sooner, but expansion will be the scheduling leveling out event.

[rmc523]

me too, i'm saying i would want a larger sample than a smaller. I just hate how quickly 6 months of a season can be extinguished in 2 days of games. I think wild card round should be 5, and DS, CS, and WS all 7 games. I hate the 5 game division series as well. I think the 162 should be shortened to allow for longer playoff series if that's what it takes. 162 is very unnecessary to me.

Ah I see. Yeah, I’d be fine with a 5 game series. I HATED the one game series

[fish16]

I’d rather have a best of 3 than a 1 game wild card game.

me too, i'm saying i would want a larger sample than a smaller. I just hate how quickly 6 months of a season can be extinguished in 2 days of games. I think wild card round should be 5, and DS, CS, and WS all 7 games. I hate the 5 game division series as well. I think the 162 should be shortened to allow for longer playoff series if that's what it takes. 162 is very unnecessary to me.

[lou]

Starting to look around at OOO guys that might make sense - Peraza

Yankees will have Jazz and Volpe at 2 spots in the IF, as well as have LeMahieu (healthy?), Cabrera, Berti, and Vivas (recently traded for him, also OOO) to contribute. I imagine they are going to sign C. Walker or Bregman this offseason, so Peraza is an active roster bump as he ain't cutting through this. Especially when they have Lombard coming in 1-2 years who they like so they have IF depth there (it's why they viewed Serna as expendable, etc.).

This seems like a good buy-low. Yankees will be able to sign one of those IF, another OF (which includes Soto), have a full rotation, and...... have a garbage bullpen. Marlins have some real depth there where a reliever or two starts looking very attractive to Peraza. They won't get much and Cronin will be hard to beat here. Just saying, if they are cheap, this is cheap and the equivalent to the Edwards/Chargois and Faucher/Brujan trades. Maybe Peraza just needs the change of scenery and they can luck into a competent enough SS. They have gotten wonderful results from Edwards and Faucher (and Otto) in some moves like this recently. I imagine he would be the # 1 defensive option even if Otto or Serna can hack it there a little, and the Yankees played him a little at 3B too if there is a little Joey Ortiz flexibility in there.

Also, Peirera is also OOO and could be a flyer on top. They need more radical moves than this (major 3B for Luzardo probably and sign a real replacement for a year, etc.), but I wouldn't mind a Peraza and Peirera 3 month try out if it only costs mid tier relievers (which it will IMO). That would push two of Sanoja, Stowers, and Dane into AAA to open and no one is being hurt by that. They have options.

[rmc523]

Orioles just played 162 games to only score 1 run in 2 home playoff games and have their season ended in 24
hours.

I also have no idea how the tigers have done what they have done for 2 months now

I absolutely hate the best of 3 format for the wild card round

I’d rather have a best of 3 than a 1 game wild card game.

[lou]

Anyway, I’m really shocked that they let Stott walk with a year left. I get that there may be some serious philosophical differences between Peter and Stott but my on-the-surface knee jerk reaction is……this looks awful considering how well our pitching has performed the last few years.

Oh and I've been thinking about this. I think it's fine.

Big picture, I've obviously been on a war path of "throw guys 1 time through/combine SP/make bulk relievers" for 2-3 years now, with the constant point coming back "they aren't going to do that" and a lot of that was Stott being very dedicated in media to "believing in the 5 man rotation." For me, on a usage level, I think we're going to see this change coming immediately where they start treating guys like Oller and Veneziano as 2 IP bridge pitchers and instead of trying to get an extra few outs from a starter, pull some guys before the third time through.

For instance, this is my idea for the rotation right now (which is not that mind blowing as it is the obvious 6 I know). These are xFIP rates per CAREER per time through the lineup:


(1) Sandy (this would trend up using 20-22) - Let him throw
1st - 3.76
2nd - 4.02
3rd - 4.42
4th(!) - 3.01(!) - The best


(2) Luzardo
1st - 3.19
2nd - 4.03
3rd - 4.88 --- This says to me use a right handed opener so if he gets into the third time through, that starts middle of the order and not top of the order so his third time through is the back half of the lineup and maybe you steal an inning that way. This was 4.71 in 2023 and 4.75 in 2022 so we can't say this is an anomaly. He is a 2 times through guy for a good team, but an exceptionally great one. This is 150 innings projection.


(3) Garrett (he is better than I think he is. Dare I say 2nd most innings potential so he goes here as relievers will more often be used with Luzardo)
1st - 3.34
2nd - 3.53
3rd - 4.27 - Wow


(4) Cabrera
1st - 3.82
2nd - 4.27 - Early hook walkapalooza games (2024 rate - 4.13)
3rd - 5.49 - Get the fuck out of here, but.... (2024 rate - 4.20(!)))

He is just the best of the next two (to me at least) and could explode if the health/walks stay under control. Also, he would be sandwiched here strategically in a way the bullpen could be unloaded to help him as Garrett probably does have 2nd most innings potential even over Luzardo, and then.......


(5) COMBO

Weathers
1st - 3.89
2nd - 4.70
3rd - 3.35 (SSS)

Max
1st - 3.69
2nd - 5.18 (WOOF)
3rd - 4.77

I think you let Weathers open the games and expect those 2nd/3rd time through numbers to level out and hope he is a typical 2 times through guy, and then let Max come in maximum effort and end games. If Weathers looks great, let him throw a full 6 and Max can do 2-3. That's fine. It probably wouldn't happen too often where Weathers is averaging say 4.2 IP (130+ IP) and Max 3.1 (100+ IP) sort of thing. It'll all level out. Someone will get hurt and the other one will just take over for at least half the season anyways. I would hope relievers are rarely used in these games and they average 8+ IP combined over their best 20 games. Which would be a huge huge benefit to the bullpen over the season getting some days off.


So that's where Stott here would try and throw them another inning and they'd pay for it via those third time through numbers across the board. Yes I know it is technically Skip's decision, but he wanted them throwing and a dedicated 5 so it was a complete pitcher philosophy here. Use the pen - like the Rays do. I hope this is the move about to happen. These numbers are actually striking for Luzardo, Weathers, and Max in particular. They should simply let Sandy and Garrett throw as much as they can, and be conscious about a third time through for everyone else, and really really shade Max until he develops a third pitch (if ever). And when Eury is back, this all can be reassessed as he is obviously going to the "let it rip" category once he's done with innings limitations. Ride this as long as you can until someone gets hurt.


Which then leads to pitcher development and how much was Mel involved with say... White turning into a beast and Snelling immediately clicking into form versus what he was doing on SD. I imagine Bendix/organization has more to do with those developments than Stott, so developmentally while we can say Kim/Stott did do a good job, the changeover to Bendix's bunch also may be totally fine. There have been a few other unheralded under the radar wins - like Pushard is a real solid RP prospect now, Benitez is coming in hot in A ball - and Mel isn't really hands on with these guys. I don't think this is a huge problem but maybe this is ignorance however. This is "classic Rays" shit where they are finding guys that can go through twice/1 good pitch, and figuring out how to maximize them (which I have been hammering about with the bullpen also).



The usage philosophy will be the key over the development here regarding this change. I'm OK with the later, the farm arms get a thumbs up for the year. Pitcher usage at the MLB level was putrid, but they were radically hurt, so that's the missing piece when Sandy, Luzardo, and Garrett all land on top of what they now have. Stop throwing guys out to die in the 5th/6th IP in obvious pull situations. That's going to make an enormous enourmous impact when they start doing that. They have the personnel. I am optimistic here.

[lou]

Orioles just played 162 games to only score 1 run in 2 home playoff games and have their season ended in 24
hours.

I also have no idea how the tigers have done what they have done for 2 months now

I absolutely hate the best of 3 format for the wild card round

Want a fun tigers fact - I believe Skubal, Mize, and Rogers are the only players on the Tigers not club controlled (each arb 1). They are effectively playing with a minimum roster as those three aren't even making $6m. (Baez left off playoff roster, etc.). It is genuinely insane what they have done.


And lends credibility to the argument - just get in. Let someone deal with Sandy, Eury, and all hands on deck over 3 games. Sounds like Plan A to me. Don't change the format!!!! It benefits the Marlins in their current construction!!!

[lou]

The problem with a guy like Burger is he is a pretty awful hitter in every aspect of hitting outside of hitting for power. He's OK to have on the team as your 7th or 8th bat but he should not be one of your best offensive players.

I would guess we all mostly agree Burger is at best a 6 hole hitter on a great team? 8th is a bit too much for a guy with 40 HR pop and if he didn't have the epic funk might have gotten there, but yes not a 3-4-5 guy. I think the point is also, Burger is going to make around $2.2m next year, and absent the 40 HR/120 RBI season, probably won't scale too much with other (defensive) problems. So he's going to be something like a 4/$20-24m player and no year is guaranteed.

On a value basis, he's a 1.8 WAR player his last 2 years per season and that's really good for those prices. I am on team get rid of him a year early because the Mark Trumbo/Chris Davis guys always fall apart violently, but Jake is a pretty good athlete (sprint speed 65th percentile - Edwards is 78th for perspective) so maybe he is going to keep up his bat speed (86th percentile!) into his mid 30s and comps closer to an E5 longevity wise than those other two. We've talked about this before so don't need to rehash, but he's a piece. And if two of DDLS, Martorella, and Berry (or 1 if Ramirez moves there) work out, he can be traded very easily. It'll work itself out. I would predict a summer trade in 2025 as I think DDLS will be given years of a leash (similar to dare I say, DLC) and Martorella ends up being "the classic rays left handed 1B" type who will pop at least a 1.2 WAR over 400+ PA hitting right handers, etc.