2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

You like Otto Lopez way too much, Lou. His 2 WAR is all defense which is still fairly hard to quantify. He is a truly awful hitter.

His WRC+ is 85 with a normal BABIP. You say his RHP splits are good if they hold but they aren't good, dead average against RHP with a high BABIP. And he's needed a near .400 BABIP the last 2 months to even be mediocre against RHP. He is unplayable against LHP.

He is fine as a utility infielder or late game defensive replacement but he should not be a starter in MLB.

WAR is conveniently a good stat when it helps bolster a case for a player

WAR is conveniently a bad stat when it helps bolster a case

[Todd]

You like Otto Lopez way too much, Lou. His 2 WAR is all defense which is still fairly hard to quantify. He is a truly awful hitter.

His WRC+ is 85 with a normal BABIP. You say his RHP splits are good if they hold but they aren't good, dead average against RHP with a high BABIP. And he's needed a near .400 BABIP the last 2 months to even be mediocre against RHP. He is unplayable against LHP.

He is fine as a utility infielder or late game defensive replacement but he should not be a starter in MLB.

[fauowls44]

I'm fully with you on the first paragraph, but I'd quib DDLS could come up mid-April versus mid-June as the major deciding factor should be the "7th" control year versus paying him a 4th arbitration year. If he's ready mid-April, I'd say call him up. He's not this elite guy like Eury where a S2 deflection may really matter (to mention, Jesus Sanchez is a super 2 ultimately, and he's more along those lines to me). This goes for all of them too (Ramirez, Serna, Martorella, Snelling, Marsee, Mack, etc.). Of course, they have to be ready and most won't be. To note, catchers are so cheap in arbitration its pathetic so no sense holding Ramirez back past mid-April *if* he is ready.

But I agree on the 3B strategy as let's be objective here, Norby is actually a 30th percentile defender - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Now, that is not great and yes a SSS, but if he is going to hit, that's something you can get behind if you have some superior defenders elsewhere. I think there is plausible hope Norby can improve at the position over the winter and if he is just going to linger in the "acceptably below average" defensive range which I think what the 30th percentile is, that's fine with me if that's a .750+ OPS bat (effectively a top 20 hitter at the position, so Norby would be a solid low-end starter as an average bat, below average defender, and above average base runner theoretically, which frankly is fine for the price). I have way more hope for Norby at 3B leading to a try all that shit out in 2025 like you said, even if I'd agree he is likely still going to move to LF eventually, than any confidence in......

I'm not with you on Edwards playing SS. He is pitiful and they need to make the move to 2B ASAP. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. 3rd percentile(!) range and 20th percentile arm strength? I know you mentioned he's ultimately going to be a 2B so you're not advocating for this and just projecting the Marlins brass being cheap AF, but he is so bad I can't get behind that as a plausible plan. They must get a SS (and also, they have many minor leaguers - especially someone like Serna - to trade on top of the SP. They have real assets they can move). But if they don't, Otto has 96th range at 2B and 36th percentile arm strength (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb) so I have to imagine he'd be the better defender at SS showcasing really elite traits and this entire charade going on with Edwards getting any time at SS is hope/prayer zone. That's fine for this September garbage time, but in a world they do not get any major infielder in FA/trade, Otto needs to be the SS against all RHP next year with this current personnel.


Ultimately, I do think they will bring in at minimum a bridge catcher and two more bats for the field (SS, right handed OF) so this will work itself out.

I do like the idea of swapping Lopez and Edwards. I feel like they have committed to giving X this year to play SS, which is why they haven't made that move yet. Given what is available on the FA market this offseason and how poorly the Tim Anderson experiment went, I can't see them signing another stop-gap SS for next year. IMO, the best move would be to play some combination of X, Otto, and Sanoja there in 2025 with Serna playing SS in AAA to start the year.

The only place I can see them spending any money this offseason would be on a RH OF bat since the system doesn't really have any of those ready to come up and play regularly. He's nothing special, but perhaps Harrison Bader makes sense on a 1 year deal to play CF with Sanchez, Stowers, Myers/Conine/Random FA/offseason pickup (probably someone the Rays couldn't fit on their 40 man) rotating in the corners.

[lou]

how am i cherry picking offense by providing his war? I'm not cherry picking anything, im valuing what guys can do at an elite level as opposed to their weaknesses. If he is now a full time DH as opposed to an everyday, bad fielder creating negative WAR, his WAR should stay around the same provided the same offensive production but moving to a spot with higher expected offensive production in DH. If he hits like he has, he is a 2-3+ WAR guy. Especially if he is now just a full time DH as opposed to a negative defender. It's ok for a guy to be a damn good DH. There will always be a spot for guys who strike out less than 5% of plate appearances, hit .330+, and put up an OPS around .800 when healthy. focusing on what he cant do as opposed to what he can do at an elite level that no other player in the league can do is dumb.

Because that WAR includes his defensive performances. And DH time (i.e. extremely not valuable and very replaceable) is part of those calculations moving forward. He's never going to touch 2.7 WAR again absent he hits .370 (which he might be able to do?). He's a 2 WAR DH (which is very good BTW). A contending piece for the right team for sure. What you're missing here is, we are all focusing on the entire picture not just what is bad, and you're just looking at the hit tool. It's why Otto has a higher WAR than Arraez. His defense (and base running) lifts him over the lower OBP this season.

Let's close this book. You love Arraez. Everyone else also thinks he is very good, but you love him more. But he has two huge warts (defense, LHP), maybe a third one (base running, it's not like it's coming to improve). But what he does well (RHP) is extremely valuable and awesome and should be sustainable for the rest of the decade. He's going to be a very viable RHP DH for years. Kim should have signed him. She messed up not doing that. Maybe Peter traded for the right guys and we'll know in 2 years. Maybe he didn't and they all suck and it was a bad trade.

Let's close this book. Who cares about Arraez. It was great to have him and make the playoffs in 2023.

[Namaste]

Broke Dik Bruce can’t afford a long contract for a high OBP, low Slugging bad defender.

Thank you, Otto Lopez, for stepping up and providing a 2 WAR this year!

[fish16]

Respectfully, you are cherry picking offense again. You are using WAR figures for Arraez when he was a "sort of" viable 25th percentile defender in years past, which has now cratered to 3rd percentile. He's never going to pop 2.7+ WARs again with this defense. He'd have to hit .370.

What is happening here? Can we move on from Arraez?

how am i cherry picking offense by providing his war? I'm not cherry picking anything, im valuing what guys can do at an elite level as opposed to their weaknesses. If he is now a full time DH as opposed to an everyday, bad fielder creating negative WAR, his WAR should stay around the same provided the same offensive production but moving to a spot with higher expected offensive production in DH. If he hits like he has, he is a 2-3+ WAR guy. Especially if he is now just a full time DH as opposed to a negative defender. It's ok for a guy to be a damn good DH. There will always be a spot for guys who strike out less than 5% of plate appearances, hit .330+, and put up an OPS around .800 when healthy. focusing on what he cant do as opposed to what he can do at an elite level that no other player in the league can do is dumb.

[lou]

very smart. Always good to use the most recent injury spoiled sample as opposed to the last 3 healthy years where fangraphs had him at 1.6, 2.6, and 3.3 WAR and bball reference had him at 2.4, 3.7, and 4.7 WAR. borderline genius.

Arraez by month this year:

April: .330 average and .780 OPS
May- .389 average and .875 OPS
gets hurt on June 3rd and plays through a shoulder injury he shouldnt have
June- .257 average and .622 OPS
July- .279 average and .656 OPS
finally gets the week off over the all star break,
Post all star break he has hit .370 and OPS of .795 with 4 fucking strikeouts in 225 PA's. 4!

It's an unbelievably stupid argument you're making based on him playing through a bad shoulder injury to try to rationalize trading a guy who made this team significantly better that they got nothing of significance for that will contribute any time soon.

Respectfully, you are cherry picking offense again. You are using WAR figures for Arraez when he was a "sort of" viable 25th percentile defender in years past, which has now cratered to 3rd percentile. He's never going to pop 2.7+ WARs again with this defense. He'd have to hit .370.

What is happening here? Can we move on from Arraez?

[lou]

I agree with you on Otto and Edwards, but if they were going to do that with Otto next year, why aren’t they doing it now?

agreed give Norby every opportunity to become a passable 3B next year.

I have no idea why they aren't doing this with Otto. Maybe it is a showcase for a trade as I genuinely don't know how Otto, Edwards, Serna, and Norby all co-exist on the roster unless Norby pulls off the 3B miracle (or full time moves to LF and they make room for him there), Otto can play SS vs RHP, Edwards/Serna can play SS versus LHP, with then DDLS and Burger backing up 3B and I have doubts there too.... Or, maybe it's just the hope/prayer time for Edwards before the inevitable move to 2B and they just plop Otto there as he doesn't need the reps.

TBH, for me this is kind of just as bad as having Cooper, Soler, Yuli, and DLC on the roster, or opening with Bell, Burger, and DLC, etc. It is a logjam of guys all out of position/redundant and something has to give here. They have too big of holes at SS and needing a right handed OF. Practically, it is simply moving one of Edwards/Serna for a real SS (or right handed CF and getting a real SS elsewhere), but *that* kind of moves needs to happen to alleviate the depth chart of theoretically four primary 2B types.

[Namaste]

I’d like to add that fish16 brought up Arraez AGAIN so that’s why I lobbed that out there

[fish16]

Luis Arraez has a 1.5 WAR this season and we can’t allocate a lot of money toward a high batting average, low slugging, slow base runner who sucks at defense

Thats the end of my argument. Have a great day!

very smart. Always good to use the most recent injury spoiled sample as opposed to the last 3 healthy years where fangraphs had him at 1.6, 2.6, and 3.3 WAR and bball reference had him at 2.4, 3.7, and 4.7 WAR. borderline genius.

Arraez by month this year:

April: .330 average and .780 OPS
May- .389 average and .875 OPS
gets hurt on June 3rd and plays through a shoulder injury he shouldnt have
June- .257 average and .622 OPS
July- .279 average and .656 OPS
finally gets the week off over the all star break,
Post all star break he has hit .370 and OPS of .795 with 4 fucking strikeouts in 225 PA's. 4!

It's an unbelievably stupid argument you're making based on him playing through a bad shoulder injury to try to rationalize trading a guy who made this team significantly better that they got nothing of significance for that will contribute any time soon.

[lou]

Luis Arraez has a 1.5 WAR this season and we can’t allocate a lot of money toward a high batting average, low slugging, slow base runner who sucks at defense

Thats the end of my argument. Have a great day!

In Arraez defense, he's a 50th percentile base runner so he's fine there!


BTW, since July 1st when the team started to really turn over, they've moved to middle of the pack into GIDP. A real shift has happened. This isn't a dig on all those contact groundballs Arraez hits, but this is a topical comment Bendix did address this wild AF GIDP issue they are having some some personnel changes we were bitching about. Edwards, Otto, and Norby have effectively eliminated this problem with getting rid of Arraez and DLC.

[lou]

the eye test? K% and average are statistics. the guy has 28 strikeouts in 641 plate appearances. he's a career .324 hitter, with a .374 OBP and a close to .800 OPS for his career with a wrc+ of 120. he was top 10 in OBP last year when he was actually healthy. Even this year playing with a fucked up shoulder he is 23rd in OBP, right behind altuve, while leading the league in hitting, and having by far the lowest k rate in the sport.

His k rate this year is 4.4%. 2nd in the entire league is Kwan at 9.4%. the difference between arraez and kwan is the difference between kwan and the 14th best k rate in baseball, that's how far and away the best contact hitter he is. If you dont think it's valuable to make contact by far more than any other player in the league, and with that contact lead the league in hitting, i dont know what to say. you just want to act like the guy sucks because they traded him and you will defend anything the team does.

Also, for the 100th time, which part of the trade is it? Is he just so bad that otto lopez is better than him, or is he just so incredibly good that we couldnt afford the extension he would have gotten? You're arguments have been all over the place because you dont have an argument. you have a conclusion that you will go to any lengths to defend because you refuse to acknowledge that they could possibly have made a terrible move. there was 0 reason they couldnt have kept him on a team with terrible hitting and afforded his extension that he has clearly earned. whether that was at 2b, 1b, or dh. he provides a clear, elite skill set that no other player in baseball has.

We're still on this? Multiple things can be true:

1 - Arraez is a great DH against RHP and worth $12m-13m bucks or so he will get in arb next year

2 - He also would be worth the $15m or so AAV contract Kim should have given him the second she traded for him, that would have been around $75m over a 5 year extension

3 - Arraez is probably not worth a deal where his AAV would creep up to $18-20m range over $100-120m ala Bryan Reynolds, you know what he'd shoot for today or just say no thanks and take his chance in free agency. I note he'd be slightly older these years too versus the above

4 - Arraez is a pitiful defender which enormously impacts his value, so yes the criticism of you giving him an eye test is valid as it's ignoring average statistics. You can cite all the whiff rates you want here, but he is a bad player against left handed pitching or when in the field. He is of course completely wonderful against right handers in the batters box. We can't just look at the good and not at the bad with him, and you are doing that here and why you are getting some pushback. Hes a good player, a contending piece for sure for the right team. But he's closer to Joc Pederson than Jose Altuve with what is happening.

5 - It's too early to tell on Head, Martorella, and Marsee if the trade is a bust. Since July 11th for some perspective, Martorella is hitting in 221 PA - .260/.339/.526 (.257 BABIP), 11% BB, 19% K. He is totally fine and per the same logic you are trying to attack Namaste, Martorella can't simultaneously be a bust, and a classic low average, high OBP, lefty 1B basher which is what you keep saying. Martorella is fine. I don't have nice things to say about Marsee besides he has a fun BB rate so maybe he figures it out, and Head is just hurt and circle 2028. You might be right these guys are a bad trade, but we're 2 years out on this. You gave Lewis Brinson 4 seasons. These guys aren't FV60s so I would agree less of a leash here, but let's have some runway here please. 2026 drop the bombs.

6 - Otto Lopez is a good baseball player, and potentially very good against RHP if the offensive split holds. It is very arguable he is more valuable than Arraez right now, but that is mostly due to his contract status (will cost likely 10% of what Arraez makes the next 5 years). That being said, Otto has a lot more to prove so please don't go rampaging about Otto being better than Arraez as I said it is "very arguable" - not that he is. Of course, the floor of Arraez's hit tool is safer and he is not *that* expensive yet so that counts for a lot, but Otto is having a very good year and ending strong as hell right now. He is a fantastic development heading into the offseason for the Marlins for a number of reasons so we should be happy about this.

[Namaste]

Luis Arraez has a 1.5 WAR this season and we can’t allocate a lot of money toward a high batting average, low slugging, slow base runner who sucks at defense

Thats the end of my argument. Have a great day!

[Nick]

I'm fully with you on the first paragraph, but I'd quib DDLS could come up mid-April versus mid-June as the major deciding factor should be the "7th" control year versus paying him a 4th arbitration year. If he's ready mid-April, I'd say call him up. He's not this elite guy like Eury where a S2 deflection may really matter (to mention, Jesus Sanchez is a super 2 ultimately, and he's more along those lines to me). This goes for all of them too (Ramirez, Serna, Martorella, Snelling, Marsee, Mack, etc.). Of course, they have to be ready and most won't be. To note, catchers are so cheap in arbitration its pathetic so no sense holding Ramirez back past mid-April *if* he is ready.

But I agree on the 3B strategy as let's be objective here, Norby is actually a 30th percentile defender - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Now, that is not great and yes a SSS, but if he is going to hit, that's something you can get behind if you have some superior defenders elsewhere. I think there is plausible hope Norby can improve at the position over the winter and if he is just going to linger in the "acceptably below average" defensive range which I think what the 30th percentile is, that's fine with me if that's a .750+ OPS bat (effectively a top 20 hitter at the position, so Norby would be a solid low-end starter as an average bat, below average defender, and above average base runner theoretically, which frankly is fine for the price). I have way more hope for Norby at 3B leading to a try all that shit out in 2025 like you said, even if I'd agree he is likely still going to move to LF eventually, than any confidence in......

I'm not with you on Edwards playing SS. He is pitiful and they need to make the move to 2B ASAP. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. 3rd percentile(!) range and 20th percentile arm strength? I know you mentioned he's ultimately going to be a 2B so you're not advocating for this and just projecting the Marlins brass being cheap AF, but he is so bad I can't get behind that as a plausible plan. They must get a SS (and also, they have many minor leaguers - especially someone like Serna - to trade on top of the SP. They have real assets they can move). But if they don't, Otto has 96th range at 2B and 36th percentile arm strength (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb) so I have to imagine he'd be the better defender at SS showcasing really elite traits and this entire charade going on with Edwards getting any time at SS is hope/prayer zone. That's fine for this September garbage time, but in a world they do not get any major infielder in FA/trade, Otto needs to be the SS against all RHP next year with this current personnel.


Ultimately, I do think they will bring in at minimum a bridge catcher and two more bats for the field (SS, right handed OF) so this will work itself out.

I agree with you on Otto and Edwards, but if they were going to do that with Otto next year, why aren’t they doing it now?

agreed give Norby every opportunity to become a passable 3B next year.

[lou]

This is basically what I think happens too. Bride has been solid enough in his 1B/DH role in the 2nd half to at least be penciled into that job heading into spring training. Of course, they could upgrade that spot, but who am I kidding (and there isn't much on the FA market worth spending money on anyway). They will likely keep the Norby/Burger/Bride combo at 3B/1B/DH intact until DDLS is ready/passes the super 2 deadline...and really, I'm fine with that.

I think same goes for the middle infield. I think X, while ultimately a 2B in the future, has played well enough at SS to remain there going into the season unless a real upgrade is acquired...which again, is unlikely given the free agent options/lack of trade chips beyond starting pitchers coming off injuries. I also believe Otto is the starting 2B next season until Serna/Sanoja can take the job away.

I'm fully with you on the first paragraph, but I'd quib DDLS could come up mid-April versus mid-June as the major deciding factor should be the "7th" control year versus paying him a 4th arbitration year. If he's ready mid-April, I'd say call him up. He's not this elite guy like Eury where a S2 deflection may really matter (to mention, Jesus Sanchez is a super 2 ultimately, and he's more along those lines to me). This goes for all of them too (Ramirez, Serna, Martorella, Snelling, Marsee, Mack, etc.). Of course, they have to be ready and most won't be. To note, catchers are so cheap in arbitration its pathetic so no sense holding Ramirez back past mid-April *if* he is ready.

But I agree on the 3B strategy as let's be objective here, Norby is actually a 30th percentile defender - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Now, that is not great and yes a SSS, but if he is going to hit, that's something you can get behind if you have some superior defenders elsewhere. I think there is plausible hope Norby can improve at the position over the winter and if he is just going to linger in the "acceptably below average" defensive range which I think what the 30th percentile is, that's fine with me if that's a .750+ OPS bat (effectively a top 20 hitter at the position, so Norby would be a solid low-end starter as an average bat, below average defender, and above average base runner theoretically, which frankly is fine for the price). I have way more hope for Norby at 3B leading to a try all that shit out in 2025 like you said, even if I'd agree he is likely still going to move to LF eventually, than any confidence in......

I'm not with you on Edwards playing SS. He is pitiful and they need to make the move to 2B ASAP. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. 3rd percentile(!) range and 20th percentile arm strength? I know you mentioned he's ultimately going to be a 2B so you're not advocating for this and just projecting the Marlins brass being cheap AF, but he is so bad I can't get behind that as a plausible plan. They must get a SS (and also, they have many minor leaguers - especially someone like Serna - to trade on top of the SP. They have real assets they can move). But if they don't, Otto has 96th range at 2B and 36th percentile arm strength (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb) so I have to imagine he'd be the better defender at SS showcasing really elite traits and this entire charade going on with Edwards getting any time at SS is hope/prayer zone. That's fine for this September garbage time, but in a world they do not get any major infielder in FA/trade, Otto needs to be the SS against all RHP next year with this current personnel.


Ultimately, I do think they will bring in at minimum a bridge catcher and two more bats for the field (SS, right handed OF) so this will work itself out.