2024 Game Thread

[lou]

I dont get why people want to keep Alcantra, who is close to being on the wrong side of 30 and in years the team isn't going to be competing. He is likely what brings the final pieces needed to be competitive.

I don't disagree with you SP need to be traded and after Luzardo, he makes the most sense for the reasons you've said (plus most expensive), but it's premature to know they won't be competitive. They have a very interesting collection of guys who can click. They should keep Sandy as if he rattles off 15 good starts, that midseason value in 2025 is going to be insane if the Marlins do need 3-4 bat pieces still, etc.

So I think saying if he is still with the club 8/1/25 as being is idiotic is a stretch as there are some unknowns, but I also think you shouldn't be getting some of the pushback from others as maybe this has to happens. For a hypothetical, if Eury, Cabrera, White, Garrett/Snelling/Weathers/Veneziano, and Max/Mazur/Noble/Oller, along with a free agent 1 year # 3/4 SP using the Sandy money, looks like a 2026 rotation - I get it. Maybe Sandy and Luzardo bring back all club controlled bats, and they're sitting at a sub $50m roster (including Stanton/Garcia money) with no holes and that creates what Fish16 wants - luxury upgrades ala the Rays signing Eflin, versus having to spend more, etc.

It is just a wait and see. The lowest common denominator right now is they need the three long term bats at SS, 3B, and a right handed CF/OF, and they need to do whatever it is they need to do to get those even if SP are sacrificed. Optimistically, this is Luzardo being traded for 1, Bruce doing that thing with the $$$ in FA, and then a reverse Yelich trade ala maybe Noble, Serna, and D. Head turn into "1" more play now guy which they may be able to easily handle depending on who else works out. It's just a wait and see past Luzardo who clearly has to go first with only 2 years of control left and no reason to extend him with what White/Noble are doing and just adding Snelling/Mazur/Oller/Veneziano as there are a lot of potential options here.

[lou]

i didnt even realize kitchen only started because cabrera was scrateched right before first pitch for yet another injury. Ideally, if we can have Cabrera, Meyer, and Nardi as our back end bullpen for the next several years, that is ideal. I would continue trotting meyer and cabrera out as starters untill it's clear it's not an option, but those 2 are ideally closers or back end arms with a full rotation of team controlled high talent guys. I dont want to seem like a cabrera hater but the guy cannot hold up as a starter, it's abundantly clear.were now going on 3 years straight of not only consistent injuries, but consistent arm injuries. And that's without even talking about the fact that he gets rocked the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup plus the awful control. I look towards 2026 and Sandy, Eury, Weathers, Snelling, Luzardo?, Mazur, and then probably close to White and Meyer time with Cabrera and Meyer in the bullpen looks really good to me, plus whatever other bullpen arms pan out in the next year. That's a great start.

The bold is right and reassess when Eury is back + seeing what happens with Mazur, Snelling, White, and Noble between now and July.


But yes you are a Cabrera hater and I hope it isn't because I like him and want to extend him. Cabrera had a migraine and was great this last start. He wasn't injured. His xFIP this year is 3.78 1st time through, 3.93 2nd time through, and 4.74 3rd time through, and his career rates are 3.84 first time through, 4.22 2nd time through, and 5.64 3rd time through. Yes Cabrera has been rocked his 3rd time through the lineup for his career, but very important to note it's not a 2nd time through thing as you mentioned above which is a big indicator of where is he going to end up, and he is really flashing some improvements. This is also coming off an analytical darling 2023. New pitch mix in 2024 which I have noted. They are workshopping him and figuring it out. This is similar to what they did with Scott who walked everyone when he got here, where *any* control improvement creates a legitimate monster. Cabrera has the 3rd or 4th most upside of any arm in the Marlins organization depending on what you think of White, so they need to explore him being a SP until he clearly isn't one. Ultimately, maybe Cabrera's health does make him a 60+ usage reliever, but Cabrera is trending to becoming a huge SP and you can see the flashes. His walks this year are down from 5.96 last year to 4.66 this year. He's lost some whiffs due to that (10.66 to 9.76 K/9), but that's a worthy exchange as he just needs guys to swing and the pitches will do the rest (i.e., not going to have a 1.52 HR/9 forever). He's taking a step forward to me and I feel they will figure out the right pitch mix. No more major arm injuries is the question and hopefully this is the springboard for him.

[lou]

im fine trying out guys because its absurd how many injuries we have had in our rotation this year, but i can legitimately name like 3 guys on the pitching staff off the top of my head currently.

I saw Garrett and weathers are supposed to maybe make a return for a little to end the year. Cool i guess. What is the projected rotation for next year at this point? Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, with other options being Meyer and Eury when he comes back probably in July, Mazur should get close to full year in AAA next year but i guess is an option. Im probably missing someone injured right now, but while it looks good on paper with the top 5, we've said that for years, and as much as we talk about trading an arm like Luzardo (with way limited value now), honestly at this point we need a mid rotation innings eating type stabilizer for next year even without dealing someone currently. Mark redman 2003 would be the perfect addition for next year. He's probably not an option right now though as a 50 year old.

I dont think they have the MLB ready depth to deal a guy right now without making a significant free agent signing on a 1 year deal if not 2 of them. and that's without any further injuries. So the talk of dealing pitching depth for arms, while eventually a reality with Snelling, Mazur, and then the next wave of White and Meyer, that's probably a year away at the earliest.

Without that, next year is probably a cubs 2014 type year (we dont have anywhere near that type of high end talent) where we have intriguing pieces but service time games and realistic time lines mean we are a year away.

They will 100% play service time games or they wont be mlb ready with Ramirez and DDLS, plus guys like VMJR, Serna, Mack, Sanoja, and others are a year away at best. And as much as lou wants to will it into existence, they arent signing a major free agent, let alone more than 1. So we are looking at 2026 in my opinion for a team that is legitimately intriguing, though next year should obviously be a lot more fun with guys coming back from injury and young guys making their debut.

Let's unpack this. A lot going on. Mostly good analysis.

They are bringing in interesting arm talent with especially McMillian, Oller, and Veneziano and these guys may stick for a bit. You should watch Oller tonight. He has a really interesting slurve and FB gets some real movement. There is something here I think. I'm expecting this opening day for the 40 man today:

SP - Sandy, Luzardo/Free Agent, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers
RHP - Faucher, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco(OOO), Oller(OOO)
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano
AAA - Simpson, Mazur, Maldonado, Bellozo/____, _____, _____ (+ Fulton)
=20 (+Eury on IL)

Effectively, Bender's days may be numbered to me (as he is in arbitration and that saves $500k to move him, etc.), as it is likely preferable to carry two guys who can eat multiple innings in the bullpen (in this hypothetical, Oller and Veneziano). The emergence of McMillian and Tinoco who both objectively look pretty good does make Bender (or Faucher or Cronin) expendable. I would try and upgrade Bellozo but I am fine with the other names. And that's a credit to Bendix for sure. Practically, this might be a 6 man rotation with Weathers to open the year as everyone has been hurt, and then see what happens once April is over and switch some guys (Sandy/Luzardo) to a normal schedule, and maybe keep everyone else on a 6 man rotation schedule for built in off days or someone goes to the pen. If they trade Bender before the Rule V, one of those blank lines is probably Baumann/Soriano/Munoz/Bachar/etc., but optimistically they can improve on that slot.

Which leads into your point about trading Luzardo. I have said this so many times, but if they trade a SP, they have to sign one. This goes for Sandy too if Todd gets his wish. They probably have the innings for next year without doing anything and just tweaking the back of pen arms/inventory starters like they do every year, but they can't really afford to lose a SP and not immediately replace. This is the banging the drum comment - if they trade Luzardo to save the $6m bucks and get 1 club controlled young bat back which would easily happen (and yes I agree Luzardo's value may be depressed versus trading him pre injury but no sense beating that dead horse), they then would have to spend that same money on a lesser SP to just make up the innings and pray Cabrera and Max take the step forward so the SP doesn't torpedo down without Luzardo as he is good. This is a tough problem for Bendix if no major bats are coming in FA.

If they keep Ramirez and DDLS down till April 15th or so, they get a year of service time and they'd still get 500+ PA at the MLB level. I'm not sure what the "service time games" here is when they can effectively get a full season, combined with constant comments they have to operate like the Rays and be smart, but then we get annoyed when the Marlins keep guys down to to operate like the Rays and be smart? Big picture, I think they will call them up mid April if they think they are ready (this secures a year and creates a Super2 which is fine as the year matters most), but is DDLS' 30% K rate since coming to the Marlins a genuine problem and he needs to stay down some more, and how is Ramirez' defense where is he ready to catch say 50-60 games immediately (and 1B/DH the rest). I think they may genuinely want to work on DDLS offspeed pitch recognition and Ramirez defense for a bit. They are both very young so they have time - and this goes to your last point about 2026. They could open with Dane on the roster for April and sign a FA catcher for 1 year, and that may be a real benefit to everybody here. I don't think this one is a problem.

I'll say it again - I do not expect them to sign Adames to a $150-175m contract, but I think it gets interesting if the market collapses ala last year's 2nd tier FA and maybe he (or Kim) is more along the lines of an $75-125m deal which they can afford with this core which is cheap for years and years. And they can *really* afford this if Sandy is moved ala Todd's wish.

And finally, yes I agree they may be circling 2026 and not want to "spend money a year early." Which then circles back to, only FA arms will make sense in free agency after this year, so we're at as "Plan A" trading multiple SP (ala Todd saying Luzardo and Sandy) for all young bats between now and August 1st, and then the natural reaction is they'll have to sign some SP to replace them unless Eury, White, Cabrera, Snelling, and Max become exactly who we want them to be by 2026.

Which I would agree makes practical sense, but when oh when are these guys ever going to really try and have a contending team day 1 as I'm sure some new excuse will pop up in the next 365 days. And ultimately, a team that has Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers, and Eury as their 1-7 rotation over the course of a season should be a contender. All we have is hope.

[lou]

you act like those players signed for pennies on the dollar on a 1 year deal.

Chapman signed for 3 years 54 million (18 per year) with opt outs after each year.
Snell signed for 2 years 62 million.
Montgomery signed for 1 year 25 million with an easy vesting option for next year at 20 million.
Bellinger signed for 3 years 80 million.

they have no intention of signing anyone for those amounts. No matter how many times you post the depth chart with 8 paragraphs of analysis.

Im also not even criticizing them for not signing those guys. i dont think its prudent to sign deals like that given our salary restrictions. if we are going to start spending some money, it should be on guys they already have, and do it early. Internal guys signed early is how almost the entire braves decade of success was built. Signing 30+ year old free agents for 20+ million for their declining years is a terrible way for this franchise to operate. Then, and only then, you can make smarter signings like the rays did to fill holes in the short term.

Those contracts are very cheap? And align to what the Rays would do? See Eflin's free agent contract which is a drop below those besides Montgomery. Garcia was in those ranges. Soler + Segura + swap to Bell which raised payroll was in those ranges too. The Marlins have more depth now where they don't need 8 pieces, they need 4. They can afford 1 of those guys at a $65m payroll needing 4 players this offseason. Will they do it? I don't know, but why can't we chat about baseball on a baseball message board? There is no salary restrictions when the only expensive player on the team for 3 seasons is Sandy, and *maybe* Eury becomes very expensive in 4 years. So this all goes back to what I just said - do they think they are ready to contend, or do they want a healthy P year and let all the bats get their feet wet. I want to be an optimist and say they should be ready enough, but jokes aside, they may be circling 2026 as they may internally feel they want everyone 1 more year advanced which you can imagine as they are young

[lou]

You can disagree all you want. You are wrong.

You are basically a flat Earther. You been making the same multi paragraph posts with depth charts and potential money for multiple years across two ownership groups and have never been right.

Evidence slaps you in the face but you believe.

It's a bit sad.

Huh? Evidence, like they spent $110m in 2023 on payroll, and payroll opens around $65m in 2025 needing probably 4 and only 4 players? They actually spent the $110m, and yes that was a lot at the deadline w/ Bell and Robertson really bloating that figure versus opening day, but they overall spent it so there is some precedent here Bruce will turn up the dial if they think they can make the playoffs. For me? I think they have the SP pieces if healthy to make a run, but maybe they feel otherwise due to the injuries, they need another year to fully get healthy, and they need a year for Ramirez, Mack, DDLS, Edwards, Serna, Norby, Stowers, and Sanoja to really cement themselves on the MLB roster which likely all happen at points in 2025.

I'm not saying they will sign a $80-130m free agent - likely they get priced out like they did with Castellanos who they seemingly really wanted and Philly went with an extra year, etc. - but there is a world we can have some hope that the stars align with a market collapse as Montgomery, Chapman, Snell, and Bellinger ranged from effectively $45m-$80m deals as teams are sometimes more frugal now for the "second tier" free agents and a free agent of those prices easily aligns with risk tolerance of bringing in someone at that level and not a 7/$177m Swanson which is a different beast. Adames is having an awesome year and may be pricing himself out of this and LAD/DET may give him that $150m+ deal, but maybe they don't. And as mentioned, the only teams that don't have longterm SS players or viable prospects, combined with needing to spend money on other needs, are LAD, DET, and MIA, and then there are some maybes like SEA/SD may be on Kim, or some team signs Adames/Kim and then trades a 2B/SS/3B to make room for them.

We can't talk about baseball on a baseball message board?

[Namaste]

Edward Cabrera 7 scoreless with no ER’s and one walk, too.

[Nick]

Norby is a stud. 2 HRs today. Sanoja 2-2 in his first start.

[Todd]

Javier Sanoja got called up and got his first AB tonight.

[Todd]

It's going to be a hole sooner rather than later anyway.

[Nick]

I dont get why people want to keep Alcantra, who is close to being on the wrong side of 30 and in years the team isn't going to be competing. He is likely what brings the final pieces needed to be competitive.

Fill one whole by opening another.

[Todd]

I dont get why people want to keep Alcantra, who is close to being on the wrong side of 30 and in years the team isn't going to be competing. He is likely what brings the final pieces needed to be competitive.

[Nick]

Guaranteed through 2026. 2027 is an option. And he turns 30 next year. His value will never be higher.

2027 is a team option, so they have control of whether he becomes a free agent.

[Todd]

Guaranteed through 2026. 2027 is an option. And he turns 30 next year. His value will never be higher.

[Nick]

There is good reason to trade him. He turns 30 next year. He has one guaranteed year left. The team will not be competitive in his time here. The 2027 option makes what is already the team's best trade chip even better.

Alcantra being on the team past the 2025 deadline would be borderline idiotic.

They have 3 full years of control left with Sandy. You don’t know what the duxi you’re talking about.

[Todd]

There is good reason to trade him. He turns 30 next year. He has one guaranteed year left. The team will not be competitive in his time here. The 2027 option makes what is already the team's best trade chip even better.

Alcantra being on the team past the 2025 deadline would be borderline idiotic.