2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

I wanna see more of Sanoja. Why is he up if he’s not playing every day? Put him at a different position every day.

[fish16]

If you prefer the eye test there’s nothing I can help you with.

“Leading the league in hitting” ….take that shit back to 1978 when it meant something

the eye test? K% and average are statistics. the guy has 28 strikeouts in 641 plate appearances. he's a career .324 hitter, with a .374 OBP and a close to .800 OPS for his career with a wrc+ of 120. he was top 10 in OBP last year when he was actually healthy. Even this year playing with a fucked up shoulder he is 23rd in OBP, right behind altuve, while leading the league in hitting, and having by far the lowest k rate in the sport.

His k rate this year is 4.4%. 2nd in the entire league is Kwan at 9.4%. the difference between arraez and kwan is the difference between kwan and the 14th best k rate in baseball, that's how far and away the best contact hitter he is. If you dont think it's valuable to make contact by far more than any other player in the league, and with that contact lead the league in hitting, i dont know what to say. you just want to act like the guy sucks because they traded him and you will defend anything the team does.

Also, for the 100th time, which part of the trade is it? Is he just so bad that otto lopez is better than him, or is he just so incredibly good that we couldnt afford the extension he would have gotten? You're arguments have been all over the place because you dont have an argument. you have a conclusion that you will go to any lengths to defend because you refuse to acknowledge that they could possibly have made a terrible move. there was 0 reason they couldnt have kept him on a team with terrible hitting and afforded his extension that he has clearly earned. whether that was at 2b, 1b, or dh. he provides a clear, elite skill set that no other player in baseball has.

[Namaste]

luis arraez is leading the league in hitting for the 3rd straight year despite playing through a bad shoulder injury for 2 full months. He also has a historically low k rate. If you dont think this team desperately misses a bat like that you're a moron. if you think otto lopez is anywhere close to the player that arraez is you're an even bigger moron. You dont believe either of those things, you're just an unbelievable homer who will rationalize anything this team does.

If you prefer the eye test there’s nothing I can help you with.

“Leading the league in hitting” ….take that shit back to 1978 when it meant something

[fish16]

Are you referring to Otto Lopez? The guy with the higher WAR (2.0) than Luis Arraez (1.5)?

luis arraez is leading the league in hitting for the 3rd straight year despite playing through a bad shoulder injury for 2 full months. He also has a historically low k rate. If you dont think this team desperately misses a bat like that you're a moron. if you think otto lopez is anywhere close to the player that arraez is you're an even bigger moron. You dont believe either of those things, you're just an unbelievable homer who will rationalize anything this team does. They got nothing for arraez, as i said at the time. the best piece they got immediately needed major hip surgery as a guy whose best tool is speed, and the other 2 guys both have sub ,700 OPS for the entire year this year.

[Namaste]

I also believe Otto is the starting 2B next season until Serna/Sanoja can take the job away.

Are you referring to Otto Lopez? The guy with the higher WAR (2.0) than Luis Arraez (1.5)?

[fauowls44]

So where does Jonah Bride fit in? .771 OPS. They haven’t really played him much at 3B so I guess that means they don’t like him there. Norby and Burger are both bad at 3B. My guess is Norby remains at 3B. Bride splits 1B/DH with Burger next year until DDLS pushes him out.

This is basically what I think happens too. Bride has been solid enough in his 1B/DH role in the 2nd half to at least be penciled into that job heading into spring training. Of course, they could upgrade that spot, but who am I kidding (and there isn't much on the FA market worth spending money on anyway). They will likely keep the Norby/Burger/Bride combo at 3B/1B/DH intact until DDLS is ready/passes the super 2 deadline...and really, I'm fine with that.

I think same goes for the middle infield. I think X, while ultimately a 2B in the future, has played well enough at SS to remain there going into the season unless a real upgrade is acquired...which again, is unlikely given the free agent options/lack of trade chips beyond starting pitchers coming off injuries. I also believe Otto is the starting 2B next season until Serna/Sanoja can take the job away.

[Namaste]

i hadnt heard the phrase DLC in a month and it was wonderful. He has been a borderline terrorist to the pirates lineup since they got him. .486 OPS, -.9 WAR. For his career he is now at just .2 WAR in close to 1800 PA's. the guy is not a major league player.

And luis arraez is about to win his 3rd straight batting title with his 3rd different team despite playing 2 full months with a messed up shoulder. Unreal contact ability. his k rate is down even further from last year. just 4.2%

His 1.5 WAR in 2024 will always be missed

[Namaste]

Jesus Sanchez 5 for 5 tonight

Marlins up 11-7 over the Dodgers

[lou]

when i say limited trade value for luzardo i should specify i mean relative to what it was a year ago. Especially given how many injuries we've had this year, i think it's a hell of a lot more prudent to see if he can stay healthy from april to the end of july 31 next year and see if he can gain some of that value back. It's such a fuck up not trading him last year, especially considering they seem to have been looking for any reason whatsoever to blow the team up ASAP.

Thanks and agree. We're on the same page. Peter had his rookie mistakes not blowing it up preseason with Luzardo and Arraez, but it is what it is.

[fish16]

when i say limited trade value for luzardo i should specify i mean relative to what it was a year ago. Especially given how many injuries we've had this year, i think it's a hell of a lot more prudent to see if he can stay healthy from april to the end of july 31 next year and see if he can gain some of that value back. It's such a fuck up not trading him last year, especially considering they seem to have been looking for any reason whatsoever to blow the team up ASAP. Just imagine all the same moves, but we also added a guy like Mayo

[lou]

i dont think they have enough confidence in the depth being healthy, plus his trade value is extremely limited, so i dont think luzardo gets dealt. I could see them doing a prospect trade including noble meyer for a long term, maybe closer to the big leagues SS. That's the real big hole in the future plans right now, and its gaping.

They are honestly at the point where they should yet again try and sign an innings eater on a 1 year deal who can throw multiple innings out of the bullpen in a best case scenario where everyone is healthy. but they wont. we all know they wont, but they should.

I am with you on Luzardo and they should probably keep him, but I don't think his trade value is extremely limited when he's going to cost $6m. Major SP are quadruple that. Someone with a lot of bat depth (looking at you Boston) needs someone like him desperately and you have to take some risks with a guy with his upside and multiple years of control. I think they would get something very very good for him ultimately. Maybe I am wrong, but I'd nontheless still keep him. I think they trade Bender for a low A baller, and then churn the last 3-4 P spots with more waiver claims/low end trades like Faucher and then reassess the SP in June. More on that below.

I am also with you on maybe they should dip into the farm and move some A Ball guys (including Noble, but not White as the lefty) + 2B (likely Serna) for SS/3B/CF help right now. The idea they can turn Noble and outside top 15 guys into a legitimate SS/3B/CF and Serna and outside top 15 guys into a suitable second one of those three, and then signing a third (even a stop gap like Moncada even if they won't go for Adames/Kim, etc.), would be really fantastic. Preserves all MLB pitching which is key and just swaps the prospect with someone similar.


However - as it stands now - I don't think they need the innings eater for next year. They could use a better Bellozo/Curry type of guy, but I think having those 6 SP + presumably Oller, Veneziano, and Mazur on the 40 man, + presumably Bellozo/Curry/similar is also on the 40 man as the last guy in AAA, + Montverde and Snelling are likely in AA/AAA and off the 40 man and could be added, + Eury is back in July more than likely..... This is some real depth. Everyone loses if 5+ SP get hurt and signing 1 more doesn't mean much in that scenario, but I just named over a dozen SP type arms we can see some action with next year so if a reasonable amount get banged up (2-3 at a time), they should still have a guy who profiles as a real arm to plug in. OR, if you meant they should sign a SP and keep Max in AAA longer as he needs it, or Max is just outright moved to the "closer" spot, sure. That's a scenario I can get on board with spending money on arms. Otherwise it really has to go to the bats as they need 3 minimum, likely 4 of them.

[fish16]

i dont think they have enough confidence in the depth being healthy, plus his trade value is extremely limited, so i dont think luzardo gets dealt. I could see them doing a prospect trade including noble meyer for a long term, maybe closer to the big leagues SS. That's the real big hole in the future plans right now, and its gaping.

They are honestly at the point where they should yet again try and sign an innings eater on a 1 year deal who can throw multiple innings out of the bullpen in a best case scenario where everyone is healthy. but they wont. we all know they wont, but they should.

[lou]

And just because we're here and slow, the pitcher 40 man projection to me:


SP - Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers, Mazur, Fulton (9)

RHP - Faucher, Bender, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco(OOO), Oller(OOO) (6)

LHP - Nardi, Veneziano, Simpson (3)

Battle Royale for last 2 spots (2)

=20

The maybes are - Maldonado, Petersen, Bachar, Soriano, Curry, Bellozo, Baumann, Munoz, Sixto


I can see Bender traded as he hits his first arbitration year and was a S2 so they can save $500k, so maybe they keep 3 guys on that list. If that happens:

18th arm - Maldonado has a legitimate potential out pitch and options so he is probably a keep as that's something they can develop.

19th arm - Petersen had a great year in AAA and throws very hard so I can see him staying but that "last RP spot" is likely really in flux and attackable in other waiver claims/Rule 5. Maybe they end up liking Bachar more, etc.

20th arm - They probably want another guy with innings potential (Bellozzo/Curry/maybe Soriano) with the last spot. That last spot is also likely really in flux just finding some AAAA starter who they like the best and can call up and down


Tinoco looks good to me so I think he has firmly earned a spot and I think Oller is a keep as the slurve is really interesting once he moves into a more 2 IP role going 1 time or less through a lineup versus miscast as a SP due to injury. Seems like a Rays kind of guy to me who just becomes a solid overnight.


This is an opening day projection (6 man rotation for a few weeks until things settle. Everyone has been hurt):

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers

RHP - Faucher, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller

LHP - Nardi, Veneziano


Bender was traded here of course. And if Luzardo is traded for a bat, it's the same thing and just add a FA SP to replace him.


This is in pretty good shape as I think they do have the bodies here + Bendix seems to be pretty smart with low-end P moves to fill these last few spots.

[fish16]

i hadnt heard the phrase DLC in a month and it was wonderful. He has been a borderline terrorist to the pirates lineup since they got him. .486 OPS, -.9 WAR. For his career he is now at just .2 WAR in close to 1800 PA's. the guy is not a major league player.

And luis arraez is about to win his 3rd straight batting title with his 3rd different team despite playing 2 full months with a messed up shoulder. Unreal contact ability. his k rate is down even further from last year. just 4.2%

[lou]

So where does Jonah Bride fit in? .771 OPS. They haven’t really played him much at 3B so I guess that means they don’t like him there. Norby and Burger are both bad at 3B. My guess is Norby remains at 3B. Bride solits 1B/DH with Burger next year until DDLS pushes him out.

That comes with an .863 OPS vs RHP also.... but expected slash - .233/.322/.329.... and career vs RHP .242/.341/.359. Those later two are probably it, but the OBP makes him playable as a "not DLC" level defender/base runner. It's too bad he doesn't have an option as he'd be good for AAA as a call up replacement level guy. But I think he has done enough to be the bridge guy to the younger guys so they'll try him out a little longer. I do think 3B is where he should be but hey, Norby experiment is fine for now.


This is 40 man strategy question from your post ultimately. I foresee this as the smartest thing to do this offseason:

C Fortes, ___, Ramirez, Banfield
1B/DH Burger, DDLS
2B Edwards, Otto(OOO), Serna
SS _____
3B ____, Bride(OOO), Pauley
LF Norby, Stowers
CF _____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr. <--- (Maybe Hill if cheap)
RF Sanchez, Dane
=20

So opening day based off of that, assuming Ramirez, Banfield, DDLS, and Serna are all at minimum protected for service time issues, and Pauley and Mesa Jr. aren't ready:

C Fortes, ___
1B Burger
2B Edwards, Otto
SS _____
3B Norby, Bride
LF Stowers, Dane
CF _____, Sanoja <--- (Maybe Hill)
RF Sanchez

That sets up this as the core starting position players:

vs RHP - Catcher, Burger, Edwards, Otto, SS, Norby, Stowers, CF, and Sanchez (Bench - Catcher, Bride, Sanoja, Dane)

vs LHP - Fortes, Burger, Edwards, SS, Norby, Bride, CF, Sanjoa, and Dane (Bench - Catcher, Otto, Sanchez, Stowers)

Yes there is the assumption they do get a real SS and CF, and there are obvious who is playing what position issues here, but they will figure out what makes the most sense in the field as those are the obvious 9 hitters you want in each scenario with this personnel.


So Bride, he's just there until pushed out by whoever. Maybe it's DDLS and the lack of an option kills him, but maybe it's Martorella, Marsee, Berry, or Mack who force their way onto the roster. It's just a wait and see.

I will say, a good team would just DFA him after the season and add a 5th blank line above and get another SS/3B type on top of the much needed C, SS, 3B, and CF. Maybe one day.