2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

dont love much of what bendix has done but i do love the clear philosophical switch from high k guys to a ton of very low k, higher BB players. Edwards was already here but bride also strikes out relatively infrequently, as does ramirez, Marsee k's a decent amount but walks a lot, Martorella is the classic rays lower power, high OBP first baseman, sanoja was already here but he also strikes out very little.

Norby strikes out a lot but it has been clear to me that they have emphasized lower k and higher BB players, at least for those guys that dont have crazy power. We had a lot of swing and miss the last few years including guys who weren't large power hitters.

[fish16]

havent been watching the games since football started but sanoja seems to have a clear contact skill set that could fit in CF long term. Probably needs more AAA time but that could be part of an answer there. Not sure how he has looked at SS.

[fish16]

So where does Jonah Bride fit in? .771 OPS. They haven’t really played him much at 3B so I guess that means they don’t like him there. Norby and Burger are both bad at 3B. My guess is Norby remains at 3B. Bride solits 1B/DH with Burger next year until DDLS pushes him out.

i think it makes the most sense for norby to be in LF long term if he can be average there given the amount of 2b's we have. 3b long term i dont think is on the roster but i dont see why bride cant be part of a stop gap for next year if he can hit like this.

Next year i want to see Burger at 1b and then eventually splitting time at dh with DDLS. Edwards at 2b. Long term SS not on roster currently. 3b bride. LF Norby but also moving him around to 3b and 2b at times.

[Nick]

So where does Jonah Bride fit in? .771 OPS. They haven’t really played him much at 3B so I guess that means they don’t like him there. Norby and Burger are both bad at 3B. My guess is Norby remains at 3B. Bride solits 1B/DH with Burger next year until DDLS pushes him out.

[Namaste]

Marlins have a one day only sale today for BOGO tickets to Dodgers series. It will be my first game since Opening Day. Broke my 8 year streak of 10 game plan seats

Got 4 tickets in Sec 140 Row 2 for $55 out the door.

[lou]

Statcast has Fortes as the 11th-15th best defensive catcher (75th percentile defender baseball), but an extremely bad hitter of course. He's totally fine as a backup.

Actually really looking at this I'm not going to be surprised if they sign Kelly or Jansen for 2 years. They are going to need a catcher next year to bridge, and if Ramirez is deemed ready at catcher some time next summer (not exactly shredding AAA even if holding his own. He's young), they can just trade Fortes who is very viable as a backup. This is a sneaky short term need on top of the larger SS/3B/CF debates.

Maybe the catcher progression is something like this to really slow cook these guys in the minors which they should IMO:


2025 - Kelly/Jansen, Fortes (Ramirez, Banfield on 40 man, Mack not on 40 man)
-> Aug 1, 2025 - Fortes traded, and then Kelly/Jansen, Ramirez/Banfield (other of Ramirez/Banfield AAA, Mack still not on 40 man)

2026 - Kelly/Jansen, Ramirez (Banfield third catcher in AAA, Mack on 40 man)

2027 - Mack, Ramirez (Banfield last option year AAA as 3rd catcher, maybe Ignoffo has worked out and has to go on the 40)

2028 - 2031 Ramirez and Mack are controlled (third catchers will have to be Ignoffo and new draftees)

2032 - 2033 Mack is still controlled in this hypothetical

Ignoffo BTW is a catcher conversion that may be working out and may move to FV40 tier in the offseason god-willingly - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ry...ats?position=C




These guys have to of course work out, but something like this makes sense to me to get Mack 2 more full years in the minors as a really young guy, and this builds in much more runway for Ramirez and Banfield in AAA too as they may really need it.

In world the Marlins do not spend on Adames/Kim (which is likely this world), spending on a C for 2 years kind of is on-brand, and then Luzardo becomes a SS, something like Serna/2B and other prospects becomes a long term CF, and they bridge 3B with a Yoan Moncada/JD Davis type of 1 year reclamation project.


I bet this team is like $80m bucks basically and this looks like a Bruce Sherman team. The bolds would be the offseason moves/decisions.

C - Kelly/Jansen FA, Fortes (Ramirez and Banfield on 40, Mack upper minors)
1B - Burger, DDLS (Martorella and Berry upper minors)
2B - Edwards, Otto
SS - "Guy for Luzardo"
3B - Moncada/Davis for 1 year in FA, Bride (Pauley on 40)
LF - Norby, Stowers
CF - "Guy for Serna/2B and other prospects" (Sanoja and Mesa Jr. on 40)
RF - Sanchez (Dane on 40, and Marsee upper minors)
=19 Bats on 40 man with a few more who could bump them. Solid depth.

SP - Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, "FA 1 year SP", Max, Weathers (Mazur and Fulton on 40)
RHP - Faucher, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller (Assortment of FB/SL RHP arms Bendix churns)
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano (Simpson on 40)
IL - Eury
=21 arms, and good depth if the inventory arms are sorted. The RHP batch could be Bellozzo, Curry, Peterson, Maldonado, etc.

Traded - Bender

[lou]

Stallings BABIP is 62 points higher than last year. The Marlins curse. He had the game winning RBI against the Tigers who are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race

He still sucks, but they *probably* need a bridge catcher for next year and he is likely one of the better names in FA as crazy as that sounds. Their big mistake at catcher here was not claiming Joey Bart, whose .800 expected OPS (he is over achieving at the .838, but .800 is still awesome AF for a catcher) will play over the defensive inabilities. That was a miss as bet on the pedigree every time.

The FA list is - [I]Elias D


Edit - the cut/paste free agent list killed the post, but basically after d'Arnaud and C. Kelly (who will get multi year deals I imagine), there is Jansen (who is regressing but still is probably OK), and after that not much where Stallings (and Barnes and G. Sanchez....) may be next best so the Marlins who likely need a bridge catcher for 2025, might have Stallings on the short list to get them to the summer as they have nothing and there is nothing else.

[Namaste]

Stallings BABIP is 62 points higher than last year. The Marlins curse. He had the game winning RBI against the Tigers who are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race

[lou]

I know you like Lopez and I get his WAR is 1.8 but it's all defense. He is a truly horrid hitter and for a team like the Marlins that are so light offensively, he is fine as a defensive replacement and bench infielder but he can't be a starter.

Well first, nothing wrong with defensive production.

Second, I would anticipate him to be a bench infielder long term, however he has a .723 RHP split this year (.496 LHP). If he is this good defensively as a 90th+ percentile defender (and is also an 88th percentile base runner), he is a bit more than a bench guy and a great platoon starter against RHP if this is who he is. This is another one that falls into the context of look around the league and everyone are truly horrid hitters if this is the benchmark - a .723 OPS would be the 16th best primary 2B offensive production this season (100 PA minimum), and among guys who can hit right handers on the split (lowered to 50 PA), a .723 OPS is 19th vs RHP. So right now, Otto is one of the better 2B in the league against RHP as he is an average offensive starter, and then torpedos up as a 10th-13th range overall option league wide as he's a floor top 4 defensive player (Gimenez, Semien, Hoerner) and a floor top 10 base runner at the position. This isn't an oh I like him sort of thing - just look at what is happening with him compared to others around the league, and everything says this is real. His expected slash is .273/.316/.398 (which I note, is better than both Edwards and Norby) and he has a 17% K rate / .304 BABIP right now. Big contact rates and he is fast to take advantage of it. He is better than your comment IMO even if an acknowledged imperfect player which is my only point here. Maybe the defense, base running, or the K rate evaporate and then he becomes nothing fast, but I don't see that with what is happening. If someone does, I'd love a real analysis why as the he looks good out there and hacks enough contact to have a good enough average. If anything, I think the expected slugging is too high but that's also fine. If we scale things back, if he is a .650+ OPS player overall, he's going to be valuable with the defensive/base running in a Jorge Mateo/Jon Berti kind of way as a floor, etc. He's just a nice little player, and a potential benefit with 5 control years as he could also improve. He was a FV45 to start 2023, which is where Edwards landed too ya know.


But to swing this back around, this is the point. He's a nice little player even if not a pure starter. They might have four viable 2B with Edwards, Serna, Norby, and Otto. In the minors, they may also have multiple guys that end up as 2B as their best position if they even work out (C. Johnson, Pauley, Sanoja, G. Miller, Cappe, etc.). They have no viable SS, 3B, and need a right handed OF anywhere. My only point here is, we haven't talked about this idea much in the quest for where are the bats coming from, but given what looks to be four viable 2B as Edwards and Norby are having their moments and clearly not SS and 3B players, Otto does look real in at least a bench/platoon roll against righties, and Serna seems super fun from the minors slash/pedigree, exchanging one of these 4 for a similar SS/3B/Right handed OF makes a lot of sense. Or building a larger package. This is probably moving Serna as Norby can kick to a lot of LF, and Otto is more of a bench guy. Otto, Serna, and Norby are right handers, so Edwards becomes an obvious hold there. It's Serna. They just got him, but that trade was for Ramirez ultimately and just getting the next best value guy, and he can moved out already IMO based on what makes the most sense. That is of course, unless Otto or Serna can handle SS at a viable level and why I've been banging that play Otto at SS drum for months now and it really has to be every day unless the organization knows something.

[Nick]

He’s going to be a solid utility guy like Berti for us, going forward.

[Todd]

I know you like Lopez and I get his WAR is 1.8 but it's all defense. He is a truly horrid hitter and for a team like the Marlins that are so light offensively, he is fine as a defensive replacement and bench infielder but he can't be a starter.

[lou]

Norby 23.1 K% in 1770 PAs in the minors, 23.8% in 1115 PAs at AAA.

yeah you expect it to go up at the majors but not by 9%. It’s been only 114 PAs. You probably chalk it up to being over aggressive wanting to impress at the big league level. I’m not worried at all. The way he’s squaring up balls and hitting for power to all fields is the takeaway from what he’s done at the big league level so far.

I agree - he is being over aggressively and selling out for power. The what have you done lately response to that is 27.7% K rate in AAA this year (375 PA) and has ballooned at the MLB level so there is some concern there is some scouting report on him versus SSS but we'll see. The walks are also - this year - 12.5% in AAA and 4.4% in MLB, so something is going to give there soon too. I'm not too worried either - and let's add here a 95th sprint speed which is quite impressive (Edwards 77th, Otto 87th for perspective) and that's going to leg out some grounders or turn some gap hits into true doubles and triples on top to pad the slash with some extra bases. Once that K rate comes down a little and he takes a few more walks, it's just a question of what kind of power is left over. I think he should be a .260-.270 hitter with what we're seeing with an adequate enough BB rate. What's the slugging? Seems like trending up right now.

It's also very clear he is not a 3B. They have a real problem with Edwards at SS and Norby at 3B. Otto also leads the team with a 1.8 WAR right now (Edwards is better on a per PA basis, but Otto really has an argument as 2nd best position player on the season for guys still here as Jazz obviously also much better), and then there is Serna, so they may really have four viable 2B guys long term. When we're thinking about team construction, something may have to give here and quickly where two of them are turned into a different bat and quite frankly, maybe this should be an idea. Why can't they move Edwards/Serna/Norby and Otto (clearly Otto would be one of them here IMO as this is likely a "high" point for him and the others have more hit tool ceilings) for a right handed CF of similar value? That would be something and sets up Luzardo for a longterm SS/3B, and then they'd need just 1 more bat at the other of SS/3B. We can live without the 2B depth ultimately. Could be interesting to think 2B depth is cashed in now as I don't know how all 4 of these guys coexist on the roster unless they actually try Otto at SS which they should immediately and Norby settles into LF, which then creates other OF issues. (But Stowers is getting some CF time so I think that is suggestive of Norby moving eventually TBH.)

We'll see, but this is a lot of viable 2B and an equal value player position swap could make a lot of sense in a lower/medium type move.

[Nick]

The power is very fun but 32.5% whiffs. He needs to cut it down dramatically. Calling him a stud is premature as he is just barreling everything and that could drop quick as its a SSS. His expected slash is .232/.264/.449. This is actually encouraging to me though as he isn't being cheated on the slugging at all, but Norby isn't going to be very good unless those whiffs get closer to 25%. I'm hoping this is a get your feet wet sample size and some kind of .270/.330/.470 type line comes eventually.

Norby 23.1 K% in 1770 PAs in the minors, 23.8% in 1115 PAs at AAA.

yeah you expect it to go up at the majors but not by 9%. It’s been only 114 PAs. You probably chalk it up to being over aggressive wanting to impress at the big league level. I’m not worried at all. The way he’s squaring up balls and hitting for power to all fields is the takeaway from what he’s done at the big league level so far.

[lou]

Edward Cabrera 7 scoreless with no ER’s and one walk, too.

Maybe he should always have migraines?

[lou]

Norby is a stud. 2 HRs today. Sanoja 2-2 in his first start.

The power is very fun but 32.5% whiffs. He needs to cut it down dramatically. Calling him a stud is premature as he is just barreling everything and that could drop quick as its a SSS. His expected slash is .232/.264/.449. This is actually encouraging to me though as he isn't being cheated on the slugging at all, but Norby isn't going to be very good unless those whiffs get closer to 25%. I'm hoping this is a get your feet wet sample size and some kind of .270/.330/.470 type line comes eventually.