2024 Game Thread

[nny]

Which, fun fact while looking at the above, top ISO leaders this years for all of MILB min 450 PA (so, who's displayed the most power in all of minor league baseball):

2) Deyvison De Los Santos (.301), 21yo
10) Agustin Ramirez (.227), 22yo
11) Joe Mack (.226), 22yo

The only other <=22yo in the top 11 is Brayden Taylor, who is a top-100 prospect for the Rays and came in #8

Power's coming boys

[nny]

Also with DDLS, it's definitely the power I am dreaming on. A 21 year old doing what he's doing is just insane. He's putting up a .300 ISO as a 21yo in AAA; when Burger was 21yo, he was putting up a .320 ISO with metal bats in the Missouri Valley Conference. He's not 25 and doing this, and he's not doing this in A+. 21 in AAA putting up a .300 ISO.

I can only find 3 players in the last 10 years to display this much power, at this level, around that age: Bobby Witt Jr, Joc Pederson, and Kris Bryant (Pederson and Bryant were 22, Witt 21). Hell it's actually interesting just comparing his peripherals to Witt:

Witt vs DDLS
BB%: 9.0% vs 6.4%
KK%: 23.2% vs 24.2%
BB/K: 0.39 vs 0.26
ISO: .286 vs .301

Witt with the slightly better plate discipline, DDLS with the slightly better power.

This is certainly not saying he's going to be as good as Witt (especially with what all Witt brings outside offense), but I do think what he's accomplished is being slept on.

Of course not that power is everything. But worse comes to worse he's Wily Mo Pena and we can appreciate random moonshots haha

[nny]

Yeah I expected the defense to be worse. Definitely growing pains like with X at short, but he looks like he'll hold it down just fine.

Honestly if we're running out 1B Burger, 3B Norby, SS Edwards, and being aggressive at 2B with either Serna or Sanoja next year, I ain't against it (w/ probably Otto back up MI, Bride back up CI).

It's hurting defensively but you gotta make the best of what you've got, optimize the aggregate rather than optimize the individual player. I appreciated Kim doing that last year and loved trading for a 2B who was moved off 2B by his last team and putting someone who never played OF straight into CF. It was a risk, but it was optimizing the aggregate and paid off. And while these guys may be bad defensively (and still too early to say one way or the other with Norby), they at least reach the floor of serviceable.

I'd certainly rather have a good defensive SS, but this is a team that could quickly turn around with the potential staff we have next year. So while SS certainly would still be a long term hole, if there is no long term option available I'd rather they use resources to eg improve the OF to make 2025 better rather making a move for the sole purpose of moving X off SS. And whenever long term pieces start filling out, you can move players off to new positions/holes.

But if we're not really trying and eg running out Otto again there next year, it's a lot harder to be okay with playing 2Bs out of position (especially X at SS). And they've already been very aggressive with Sanoja since taking over

And this is ignoring X having the back issues, which moving him off SS sooner rather than later just for his body to take less of a beating might be required.

And of course the always big if on if that staff stays healthy, as it's really the only competitive part of the team. If it fall apart again then nothing matters next year anyway lol

[Nick]

Early returns but Norby looks like he belongs. Made a nice pick on a throw from Brujan at SS to get an out, but also had a play where he whiffed on a grounder at 3rd.

[fish16]

Hope you don’t need a visa to get from queens to Syracuse. Mets optioned Brazoban to aaa

[Nick]

Edwards injured. Being a Marlins fan sucks yo.

[fish16]

thomas white with another great performance last night. they keep limiting him to 5 innings even when he has a low pitch count which i cant stand but whatever. He should be a consensus top 50 prospect for next years lists. I'd have him higher than meyer.

[lou]

Fangraphs hit piece on Trevor Rogers for fish16 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/revisiti...ers-trade-oof/


TLDR - Things are not going well for Baltimore, but he has options and control years so they have time and who knows what Norby and Stowers will do, but a contender should make better moves than this.


Seems pretty fair. They'll get something out of him, but they should have swung higher.

[lou]

lee stone loved 33 year olds dominating a ball. also, do we know if lee stone is ok?

also, pittsburgh has one of the worst offenses in baseball. Him hitting 4th or 5th there is like him hitting 4th or 5th here. not exactly a badge of honor. the guy stinks

We don't. I hope he's OK and we can be friends with Lee too, even if we laugh at Ben Meyer for years. And yes Pitt does suck, but they do like him FWIW the same way I think he still could hit .270/.330/.450 quickly and that ain't bad at DH if he can do it. Just not here, it was time to move on.


That being said, for the sake of information since Fangraphs and Statcast are under attack, here's a real world example why baseball reference and defensive metrics are bullshit. I am trying to find common ground here with you as you don't think defense is generally important in analytics. So here's why I think it's bullshit.

Varsho 4.7 WAR
Meyers 1.8 WAR
https://stathead.com/baseball/versus...ear_min=2024&p layer_id1=varsho000dau&seasons_type=forall&request =1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&ut m _source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=varshda01

Fangraphs
Varsho 3.1 WAR
Meyers 2.1 WAR
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/da...ts?position=OF
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ts?position=OF

Statcast says Meyers is a better hitter, and an elite fielder even if Varsho is an eliter fielder. Varsho is a terrible hitter.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb


Varsho should be better as he's an incremental better defender this year and neither are hitting much this year so you can believe the FG performance difference. It seems a little high to me, but maybe its' right. The idea baseball reference's formula values Varsho that much higher than Meyers on a defensive level is laughable. He is not 3 wins better than Jake Meyers. I think we all agree if nothing more here - there is no fucking way Varsho is 3 wins better than Jake Meyers this year. We can agree on this?

So in a world where one does not believe defensive metrics are accurate or not valued properly, I ask - is Fangraphs better of these two with BR, or is baseball reference right and Varsho is one of the best players in baseball because of his defense alone?

I think Varsho is a fine starter because defense in CF matters greatly and he would be best utilized playing only against right handers or dabbling at catcher which I have no idea why they gave up on that, but a 4.7 WAR is outrageous to me and has no bearing or relation to other similar contributors like Meyers. BR is flawed. I can do this all day with other dumb stuff with them. I don't know why they don't get called out on that as this example is insane. FG/Statcast are better. They are valuing these guys much closer as they should be. We agree BR is stupid here right? Even if we think both players are over valued across the board because no one hits and the defense is not reliable, the delta between these two on all three system cannot be as far apart as BR has it. So BR is stupid, and FG and Statcast even if perceived to be flawed in their own manners, are better. So in my defense of the whole do I blindly following FG/Statcast, no. I look and watch other stuff, including other teams, and here's a great example of why I never care about BR because it's fucking stupid. There is a method to the madness.

[lou]

I mean, with that walk%, for sure he's a free swinger.

I'm just saying, there are lots of free swinger's in the majors. I'm more concerned by actual Ks, and from what his numbers tell me I don't find his K numbers all that concerning, like I did others that have passed through the organization.

There are and if he connects (like Burger or top scale Rooker) none of this will matter and we can all credit Peter for buying low on DDLS.

But everything you read says he swings at everything and we obviously know a skill jump happens at the MLB level with arms - especially with offspeed stuff which is the problem. He's going to be slidered to death and will he hit enough of them? I have no idea - I think he is very risky of a prospect versus a near guaranteed top 5-10 lefty reliever for years. We've mentioned the Jake Burger comparisons, but he also gets Maikel Franco comparisons at the same time ya know. Yes DDLS is blowing out Franco in AAA, but the comparisons are being made and thats a bad name to bring up as much as Burger is a good name to bring up.

I hope Peter and the DDLS Choo Choo Train passengers are right. Yes he's 21 and they can sit on him 2 more years too effectively, but there are tons of burns who guys who do this in the minors and then evaporate. I hope he's the exception and that .255/.305/.525+ stat line drops with neutral or better 1B defense. If he can play any viable 3B like the Marlins scout suggests (I don't buy it), that would be incredible.

[Nick]

Not just FG, every scouting blurb (I came here for the abov Herald post). The Marlins are publicly saying this. Pipeline has - he still chased way too many pitches and produced too many ground balls.

Everyone says he has chase issues. I'm not making this up.

I mean, with that walk%, for sure he's a free swinger.

I'm just saying, there are lots of free swinger's in the majors. I'm more concerned by actual Ks, and from what his numbers tell me I don't find his K numbers all that concerning, like I did others that have passed through the organization.

[fish16]

Agree to disagree and already pointed out the flaws here. 2/3rds of this post is what you would kill Lee Stone about. Pittsburgh batting DLC 4/5th? I guess the Marlins aren't the only ones that see potential? Maybe it's never realized. The world is not black and white.

I say lets be friends. Lets have less pressing buttons and angry ramblings over this nonsense. You can do it. I believe in you.

lee stone loved 33 year olds dominating a ball. also, do we know if lee stone is ok?

also, pittsburgh has one of the worst offenses in baseball. Him hitting 4th or 5th there is like him hitting 4th or 5th here. not exactly a badge of honor. the guy stinks

[lou]

fine, you're a complete slave to fangraphs and statcast with 0 in the way of actual, real life, evaluation by actually watching people play, which you very clearly dont. That's my problem with you, everything is exclusively based on fangraphs and whatever other advanced stats you use with 0 in the way of actual real life evaluation based on watching people play. Im not saying using analytics is bad, but there is a reason why scouts still exist. Your exclusive use of stats with nothing in the way of actual real life evaluation by watching these people play leads you to thoroughly overrate a ton of players. If you did actually watch these guys, you know, play baseball, you would be able to tell very easily that DLC always sucked and has literally always been exactly what he has been his entire major league and minor league career. You fall in love with exit velocities with guys like sanchez without ever seeing they have giant holes in their game that are not obvious beyond the stat sheet. Hitting the ball hard is important, but that alone as a trait does not make anyone a breakout candidate. Sanchez has some of the worst plate discipline you've ever seen. That's why he has been a thoroughly mediocre pro. That's why he hits 470 foot bombs and has a .700 OPS and sub .300 OBP. Not because he is unlucky and has some major breakout coming absent major changes to his approach and swing.

That's my only issue with you. Everything is based exclusively on statistics with no room for any other differing opinions based on people who actually watch these guys play compared to you making evaluations exclusively based off what fangraphs or statcast or whatever other analyitc site you use tells you. DLC's profile didnt earn any playing time, because anyone who actually watched the dude play could very easily tell you he had almost no positive aspects to his game other than the occasional time he made contact, the ball was often hit hard. the issue is he rarely made contact, had some of the worst at bats you've ever seen, was a god awful fielder, and possibly an even worse base runner. You have a giant hole in how you evaluate players. for you to continue to say that DLC still has any kind of full time starter potential is beyond laughable. he's been the same fucking guy his entire 10 year professional career.

Agree to disagree and already pointed out the flaws here. 2/3rds of this post is what you would kill Lee Stone about. Pittsburgh batting DLC 4/5th? I guess the Marlins aren't the only ones that see potential? Maybe it's never realized. The world is not black and white.

I say lets be friends. Lets have less pressing buttons and angry ramblings over this nonsense. You can do it. I believe in you.

[fish16]

i think we lead mlb in guys who cant play SS and are eventually long term 2b/LF. Norby clearly does not want to play 3b. Hopefully he gets over it though. the bat will play anywhere

[lou]

His Strikeout rate is not taking a huge downturn, but it is getting better every year.

2022 (Including AFL): 26.8%
2023: 26%
2024: 24%

BB%
2022 (Including AFL): 6.2%
2023: 5.2%
2024: 6.4%

Again, not huge gains, but gains. He's 21 years old. This is the type of thing a hitter can improve on, and honestly I don't think that K% is terrible to begin with.

Yeah we've been burned by these high strikeout guys but to me he's not on that level. For Reference:

Minor League K%
Burdick: 31.5%
Harrison: 33%
Conine: 34.8%
Bleday: 22.1% (but Bleday only had 43 HRs total in 1119 PAs, DDLS has 35 this year. When Bleday was 21 he was still in college/getting drafted.)

What are the whiff/chase projections you're seeing? Or is this just based on a FanGraphs blurb?

Not just FG, every scouting blurb (I came here for the abov Herald post). The Marlins are publicly saying this. Pipeline has - he still chased way too many pitches and produced too many ground balls.

Everyone says he has chase issues. I'm not making this up.