2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

someone brought up joe mack yesterday, i would let him start next year in AA as well. I like to see guys mash at a level before promoting them. Let him start AA next year, hopefully he crushes and earns a promotion to jax.

He's 2nd in the Southern League in HRs and 1st in RBIs, playing catcher. He's done more than enough.

[fish16]

i feel like they are just making up the names of our bullpen arms at this point. who the fuck is austin kitchen. Adam oller? Not a real person

[lou]

Myers was at 86 pitches going into the inning. Skip has had a quick hook before with guys to “build confidence”, and maybe that should be done with Myers, but also he’s gotta figure out how to get deeper into games

But yeah, he was clearly done after the 5th

I'm fine with throwing all of them now and getting shelled 3rd time through the lineup (it also helps future arbitration arguments in a total dystopian view of front office management too by depressing ERAs!) as they just need the innings, but I really think throwing deep into games does not matter with the Marlins personnel.

The Rays really champion quick hooks and bulk relievers which is where I am at. They just can't do it as their entire rotation is literally hurt right now with Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, and Weathers. If they have Sandy, Luzardo, and I'm going to say an eventual blossoming Cabrera (and if not replaced by Eury at some point) eating innings 3 times through, all of sudden they can make two starting arm platoons for the 4th and 5th SP next year:

Max + Weathers
Garrett + Bellozzo (or whoever. Curry, Mazur, new similar acquisition and hope it goes better than Munoz/Tyler, etc.)

I am imagining a world Max is throwing say 4.2 IP x 30 appearances (140 IP) and Weathers averages something like 4 IP x 32 appearances (128 IP). I think we all agree for who those guys are, those are very healthy totals for 2025.

Maybe Garrett is a little heavier like 32 appearances x 5 IP average (160 IP) and Bellozzo/whoever operates as a 1+ time through guy and is something like 35 appearances x 2.2 IP average (93 IP). Practically Garrett will probably skip a few spots so maybe he is 140+ IP and Bellozzo/whoever is closer to a 105+ IP guy and the de facto 7th SP. Bellozzo's analytics are cratering which is unfortunate, but he's still throwing an interesting cutter and this seems like a guy they may tinker with to get some real 1 time through slop innings. They can also find this kind of pitcher probably and just keep the seat warm until they reassess when Eury is back in action as that will change everything quickly.


Yes they need to stay healthy, but if you do that math, this quickly becomes situations where the bullpen really gets to rest so they can help Luzardo and Cabrera really quickly and we can pray Sandy is gonna Sandy. As guys get hurt, you can reassess on the fly as everyone is relatively stretched out.

So just saying here, sure throw Max now, but I don't know if we should care about him going deep into games long term as Sandy, Eury, Luzardo (even for just 1 year if he's moved), and probably Cabrera are going to eat and everyone else can be thrown in waves absent major breakouts. Beating that "no third time through the lineup" drum unless a guy shows he is a true third starter or better and we can probably only say that with Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, and maybe Cabrera if he fully clicks.

[fish16]

someone brought up joe mack yesterday, i would let him start next year in AA as well. I like to see guys mash at a level before promoting them. Let him start AA next year, hopefully he crushes and earns a promotion to jax.

[fish16]

jacob berry has had a great last few months. hit his first AAA homer last night. now they have him playing RF. is he going to be the star level impact bat that they thought he would be? probably not. but if they can salvage him as some sort of piece moving forward that would be a pretty big development, especially with this new found versatility. not sure how he has looked at these spots, but he's played 1b, 3b, 2b, and RF this year. would like to see some more 20-25 hr power, but the plate discipline gives him a solid floor to me. He has had a 41/25 K/BB ratio since june in AA.

[fish16]

one of the things i like about mazur is the elite control. the guy walks absolutely no one. reminds me of why i liked pablo lopez when we got him and then what he did when he was in our minor league system.

[fish16]

mazur should get some time in AAA to start next season as well. he was rushed, as was snelling. Let them develop and get the most out of the asset. i very much disagree with fangraphs on mazur. He has a starter profile, and they will and should continue to start him. He was a top ranked prospect in the padres system for a reason, a bad start to this year because he was rushed should not change that.

[lou]

Have to think Adam Mazur is up with the big league club soon.

They were pretty clear with some of the acquisition press they think he was rushed and needs some real MiLB time, especially to work on secondary offerings. You know, the "pitch in reverse" scouting reports and how FG thinks he is likely a fastball/slider reliever. Also the constant lowest common denominator comment - he was up (eyeballing) around 40 days this season, so call this...... Mid May 2025 and later and his age 30 season is unlocked via service time (and he'd be a super 2 like Garrett and Cabrera). He seems like a guy they will do this with to me. Just saying here, maybe he gets a spot or two if they are desperate as you can kick that mid-May 2025 to June 1, 2025 pretty easily on a big picture level, but I don't expect the big call up for him ala Max until some point next year (assuming he works out too). He's also up to 114 innings this year and did 96 last year. He may just have 2-3 or so starts left in him. I don't think they'll jump him more than 30-35 innings, but maybe that's wrong. I'd just let him throw in AAA and cycle these dingleberry waiver claims and AAA guys to get through the season and maybe a few (like Bellozzo and McMillian in particular) stick on the 40 man.

[lou]

Is Skip trying to send a message with Meyer? 3rd straight game I feel like he’s left him in an inning longer than he should have.

They are doing this with Cabrera too who should be coming out early a few starts including the last one. I'm not sure it's a message, but rather get your innings to build up the stamina for next year. As they need to get call it 275 innings out of those 2 next year. Max is at 109 and Cabrera 93 combined at all levels this year.

[nny]

There are encouraging batted ball analytics here FWIW - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

It's obviously the whiffs. No one is going to survive a 35% K rate, but if he can get that down to say 28%-30% (he was around 25% in 1,000 AAA PA), he's got a chance. Lets note the .660 vs RHP .205 vs LHP OPS split also, and MiLB's website seems to be combining his minor/major league splits for absolutely unknown shitty tech reasons, but it's showing an .811 RHP / .706 LHP OPS split between AAA/MLB. He's basically just gonna hit right handers more and its a question of how high can he get that.

This is also another reason to not really sign Sanchez and just keep him in arb. Stowers could quickly become a cheaper version of him and it's hard to carry 2 guys like this at virtually the same position. Maybe if they truly get a dedicated SS and CF that makes it a bit easier to carry two RHP splits OF, and someone like Sanoja can really float on the bench between SS/3B/CF, etc. The good news here is, this will absolutely work itself out on the field so hopefully Stowers can get that K rate below 30. That goes for Conine too.

I’m personally rooting for double platoon in the corner OF with Norby in the IF. All of our main bats, both in the majors and those in the upper minors coming up soon, are not left handed outside of Mack. So we’d want a another lefty bat anyway and the lineup can handle a double platoon especially with the position flexibility a lot of guys have

Sanchez has shown he’s serviceable enough for one, just a question if Stowers or Conine can get the k rate down. I think the likelihood is not but rooting for both and happy they have a month+ to get a chance to develop into it

[nny]

Also I know in the point is “right hand platoon bat” but I think it’s too early to pencil Dane into anything. He’s certainly been better than Hensley and Hill to be the top of the depth chart at the moment, but I don’t think it’s a spot that should be considered locked down

Which, been stated many times but can’t be stated enough: holy shit did he fuck up

[nny]

Myers was at 86 pitches going into the inning. Skip has had a quick hook before with guys to “build confidence”, and maybe that should be done with Myers, but also he’s gotta figure out how to get deeper into games

But yeah, he was clearly done after the 5th

[Nick]

Is Skip trying to send a message with Meyer? 3rd straight game I feel like he’s left him in an inning longer than he should have.

[Nick]

Have to think Adam Mazur is up with the big league club soon.

[lou]

Also I want to point out McMillion is pitching like a Tanner Scott level madman - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

It is only an 11.2 IP sample at the MLB level over 2 years, but he's maybe got upside to be a high leverage reliever if he can keep the walks under the control. The slider looks good, but this says it is exceptionally good.

This is of course an enormous ask and why KC gave up on him (he walked 7+ per 9 in their AAA system this year), but I'm really interested in seeing how this month goes. They did fix Scott. This is a worthwhile project for sure.