2024 Game Thread

[lou]

That Matt Chapman extension (6/$151m) for his age 32-37 seasons is something. The Giants have missed on many free agents the last few years, but that seems like a gross desperation overpay and should have been a 4 year deal, or a cheaper 5 year deal. They moved Luciano to 2B and look committed to Fitzgerald at SS, so this is good news as it extremely likely takes them out of an Adames/Kim sweepstakes (they would be next most obvious IMO after LAD, DET, and MIA needing a bonafide SS), but is more bad news as Adames and Kim will each be 29 and it is extremely hard to say Chapman will out perform them for 6 years with those 35 and over seasons coming quickly. The hope a vortex of a Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, and Chapman free agency and all the big guys whiffing where the Marlins could sneak in just took a little hit here.

Swanson was 29 when he signed his deal (7/$177m) and that seems like this is where it is heading for Adames and Kim, but maybe Kim is closer to 6/$140m and Adames 6/$152m sort of thing. Swanson is still a bit better even though Adames is having the best year of his career so it's probably just 1 less year. I was hoping these numbers would maybe trend in a depressed market for FA to the $120-130m and closer to the Castellanos ($100m) spectrum of deals versus Swanson, but the Giants may have just set the market by paying Chapman so much money when he is 36 and 37. Frankly, Adames is going to shoot for 8/$200m out of the gates or maybe 9/$220m sort of the thing. He won't get that anywhere of course, but $150m is likely the magic number based on the new comp, or a Nimmo-esque 8/$162m, and that's a lot to commit. It's likely a Chapman to Swanson contract range absent a market collapse. This may be up to the Dodgers as Detroit spending this money is iffy with what happened to them with Baez, and of course Bruce doesn't spend money, so maybe these guys are just screwed and it's cheaper because the rest of baseball likes them, but isn't willing to spend so much based on their own internal options (which most teams do have SS which I've shown). We can hope the market squeezes them.


If I were the Marlins and Bruce greenlights the $90-100m payrolls next few years, I'd appeal to a higher annual value, shorter deal, and give Adames/Kim an opt out so they could retest free agency. Something like 4/$116m (or 5/$135m), but give an opt out after year 3 (and year 4) so they could try and get another "Chapman" kind of deal at age 32 (or 33) and beyond seasons. The appeal is more money per year, and betting on yourself for a chance at a second big free agent contract. Front load 2025 a little too so maybe that contract is structured $35m-$27m-$27m-$27m(-$19m). Optimistically, they would be great and could do better in free agency than 1/$27m or 2/$46m sort of thing after 27/28 (similar to Soler opting out), so this ultimately becomes something like a 3/$89m type of deal which works for a potentially contending Marlins team 2026 and 2027 (i.e. aligning with Sandy's service time, a healthy Eury, and the theoretical emergence of Cabrera, White, and others into superior SP), which is the entire point. If Adames/Kim hold up, they could shoot for another $100-150m contract similar to Chapman at the same age, and all of a sudden they are above all the comps (Swanson, Nimmo, Springer, Chapman, etc.) and are genuinely closer (or above) Correa level money for the same or similar years.

This is all unlikely of course per the Marlins, but the big picture here is, if this were to work, I feel it's "overpaying" (is this possible with Bruce and budgets so low? The answer is no) for 3 years and giving Adames/Kim an opt out to try free agency again after 2027 and hoping they opt out, which works for getting paid handsomely for these years over expectations, and maybe the player would want to bet on themselves in free agency, or potentially getting out of a bad situation if the Marlins do stay this injured and suck. Marlins don't care as it's not 6 years like Chapman, as this builds out the window for when they still control Sandy, etc. and gives 3 years to figure out SS otherwise (C. Johnson? IFA-Salas kid? etc.).

Just some musing here as while most are completely out on Bruce doing anything and yes that's probably right, payroll will still be $65m or so next year and they have spent $80-110m the last 3 seasons so there is potential to do things as other payroll is moveable (Luzardo and Bender will make close to $7m and they might have easy replacements if say Snelling and Mazur are pretty real quicjly, etc.) to help fit this all in if need be. Luzardo would bring back another SS/3B or CF quickly, No one is going to be expensive besides Sandy for literally 3 full seasons, except maybe Luzardo if they do keep him and that'll just be for 2026 if he goes off in 2025. So there are some paths this could work if Bruce says the magic $100m number is right.

I'm expecting 1-2 SP trades for young bats, signing some cheap/skeptical SP to make up the innings, and praying to god as the 2025 strategy, but just thinking here how some kind of Adames/Kim move could work if lightning strikes. Best I can think of is the higher money per year, 3 year opt out to align with Sandy's contract to really go for it in 26/27, and taking a bet the guy opts out and shoots for a second bigger deal.

[fish16]

good outing for noble meyer last night. hasnt been dominant this year like white but really really good year for a 19 year old across A and A+ ball. looks like they crushed the top of last year's draft

[lou]

not breaking any news here in saying the white sox are bad but it is hard to believe that a team as bad as us this year can be 21 games in front of anyone.

The funniest part is they can't get the # 1 pick with the new draft rules, which others here have mentioned but fun to say out loud.

We got a huge shot at Ethan Holliday (probably 3B), Jace LaViolette (CF), and Cam Cannarella (CF) as the presumed top 3 picks and all stud bats prospect wise. Everyone lines up postionally and is a genuine missing piece. I'll be surprised if they fall out of this top 3 as they should get at least that.

It then gets real exciting when two more bats are obtained via trade........ (or they do spend the money on some kind of SS. Maybe a right handed one from the Dominican who has a 4.4 WAR this year already, although that may really inflate the value, but his defense is starting to crater (51st percentile) so a 3B move might be coming in 2-3 years similar to Machado, and that may turn some teams off which is good for the Marlins as a SS/3B works for the Marlins in any scenario and Willy being a stud 3B defender + hitting jacks in a few years is still a real viable longterm starter. That would set up LaViolette/Cannarella as fast rising college players as the targets and hopefully one goes full Langford and is up quick, etc. Let's dream the missing three bats are Adames, Laviolette/Cannarella, and a SP move for a young SS/3B depending on visions of Adames' defensive future which is probably just trading Luzardo and parts for Brooks Lee sort of thing. Let me dream).

[lou]

guys can improve. he's pitched 63 major league innings with a TJ surgery thrown in the middle and a super dumb handling of him this year thrown in the mix. he probably doesnt because of the "depth" we have at SP, but it's worthless to talk about because we had depth this year and not a single guy out of that depth stayed healthy for even half the year. He's going to end the year at 130 or so innings between the big leagues and minors. There is no reason why he wouldnt be capable of throwing 150-170 if the injuries shake out the way they would need to in order for him to be in the rotation all year. Realistically he will be a hybrid multi inning reliever and starter next year, or he starts the year in the rotation and moves to the bullpen when eury comes back in order to keep him effective down the stretch. It's way too early to say that he never throws 170 innings when they clearly envision him as a starter.

It's important to note I said he will never throw 170 innings in current form, and he'd have to get the slider usage down and I didn't say guys can't improve. Pointing out that you are debating something not being said. Yea Max needs some work. We'll see what happens but I'm with you he's off injury and will be fine however he lands. Likely not his pick pedigree as an epic # 1 ace, but he's a piece somewhere on this team for awhile even if its in the pen. He's probably an awesome reliever immediately but I'd start him until at least Eury is back next summer and reassess as who knows who gets traded, hurts, explodes in a good way, etc.


But if this is worthless, rev my engines and let's start talking about Maldonado, Simpson, McMillian, Veneziano (new trade acquisition and a lefty!), maybe Tinoco..... and I guess Oller and De Geus being the last 7 arms on the 40 man.

Because that's what it probably is right now, what is important the last month of the season, and is actually a pretty interesting group. Optimistically 2 more guys emerge from Oller, De Geus, Baumann, Curry, Bellozzo, Soriano, and Bachar (and Sixto?) so this becomes really obvious of who the keeps are and the Marlins have all 20 arms set prior to the winter, with only looking for really high end waiver claim or opportunistic improvements. McMillian and Tinoco look real real interesting right now which is kind of a big deal of establishing the arm depth. They might be able to trade say Bender (in arb, save $500k!) and keep another guy on top of that as this might be real depth, and roll out Faucher, Cronin, McMillian, Tinoco, Nardi, Veneziano, and Oller as the opening day bullpen, and have Simpson, Maldonado, and say De Geus and Curry as the option arms (with Mazur also a possibility as he's on the 40).

This is kind of interesting/sneaky good and very much resembles the Rays solid pens. I note again, the Marlins have had a top 2 bullpen in baseball this year along with Cleveland, but yes Puk, Scott, Brazoban, and even Hoeing was a good third or more of that production so they have to fill those spots + practically Faucher and Cronin are likely over achieving to some extent. So they have a bit of work to do as a repeat is unlikely absent 2 big breakouts, but maybe McMillian and Tinoco can replace a lot of that as they objectively look pretty good/interesting enough.

Here's to churning and finding two more RHP relievers from these reliever slog moves, McMillian and Tinoco not going off the deep end, and Veneziano showing at least solid 3rd lefty reliever upside. September is fun?

[fish16]

not breaking any news here in saying the white sox are bad but it is hard to believe that a team as bad as us this year can be 21 games in front of anyone.

[fish16]

I was typing the other thing, but yes. The bold is all great, but the Marlins would never let him throw 170 IP next year (or probably ever) to quib in his current form. 150 is probably the max. He is a high stress arm remember - huge slider usage (40%). He is never throwing 170 unless that goes down 10% and he can throw FB/CU 70% of the time or so. And he doesn't have a viable changeup. Which is all fine. I bet they throw him twice more and shut him down. Then regroup in the offseason of what to do.

guys can improve. he's pitched 63 major league innings with a TJ surgery thrown in the middle and a super dumb handling of him this year thrown in the mix. he probably doesnt because of the "depth" we have at SP, but it's worthless to talk about because we had depth this year and not a single guy out of that depth stayed healthy for even half the year. He's going to end the year at 130 or so innings between the big leagues and minors. There is no reason why he wouldnt be capable of throwing 150-170 if the injuries shake out the way they would need to in order for him to be in the rotation all year. Realistically he will be a hybrid multi inning reliever and starter next year, or he starts the year in the rotation and moves to the bullpen when eury comes back in order to keep him effective down the stretch. It's way too early to say that he never throws 170 innings when they clearly envision him as a starter.

[lou]

good to see xavier edwards back after a minimal stint on the IL. not surprising to see an 0-5 after no rehab games.

Norby continues to impress. he has a clearly impact MLB bat. Edwards, Norby, Burger is a decent start to a lineup that will hopefully add Ramirez, Serna, DDLS, mack, and more in the coming years. Need to trade luzardo for 2 more impact bats for me to think we have a realistic chance of being a good team next year.

Norby has a .198/.239/.369 expected slash this season and is striking out 30% of the time with a 5% BB rate, so going all the way to "impact bat" is a bit premature IMO. This is a SSS and he's young, but Norby has a lot of work to do even if he has looked vastly better here and there. He has whiffed 7 times the last 3 games for instance even with getting some XBH during that time. Those whiffs need to go dramatically down. For perspective, Stowers expected offensive outcome is .233/.286/.408 (he has a current .708 OPS against RHP, so yea a SSS here too, but this is underachieving so he probably ticks up and is also a good starter against right handers as a side note here). Optimistically Norby's Baltimore exposure is dragging him down and we have a better picture end of the month when he is more comfortable. Looks like a piece for sure, but "impact" is the point here and we're a ways off from that with the whiffs and unsure defensive position. I will frankly be happy if he is a .740 OPS hitter, which splits a little higher versus LHP, a solid enough defensive LF that can dabble at 2B/3B, a good base runner (95th percentile sprint speed which I did not expect!), and he's a 450+ PA guy part of a smart LF/IF platoon with Stowers vs RHP in left/off days for infielders against RHP.


I also have a hard time seeing Luzardo getting traded off an injury, but that's going to be the story of the offseason. They can probably scrap by a year with Norby, Burger, DDLS, and whoever (Sanjoa? Pauley? Bride makes it?) covering 3B just to see what happens with them, but I do think they have a chance to be good if they get a big time SS and CF (i.e those 2 bats), and maintain all the pitching (with signing a SP to replace one if they do trade one of them like Luzardo, etc.). They have a real chance to be good if they can get 90+ starts out of Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, and Garrett, and Weathers, Max, and gang can cover the rest with a FA SP if the Luzardo move actually happens, etc.

[lou]

jesus sanchez has been across the board worse than last year in the same number of games.
Lower BB%, lower average, lower OBP, lower slugging, lower WAR, lower WRC+, lower iso. only thing better than last year is a negligible difference in K% and more SB's.

This one is extremely easy - he is getting close to double the PA against lefties, and is hitting 100 OPS points lower than them than last year. It's dragging everything down. You know, how we all wanted them to give him time against lefties and see if he is something more and well, he is not. He has a .790 OPS against righties, and last year was .809. That's a minor dip but not much ultimately. He's the same guy as last year against right handers, with better defense this year, so overall this is actually an improvement for him against what matters even if it's getting worse about lefties but that should never be a thing.

Keep playing him as why not (getting killed by lefties only helps his arbitration case!), but next year this is a hard platoon with another OF against lefties, and he can be removed situationally against lefties 3rd/4th time up depending on game conditions. It's just who he is. He's a really plus starter against RHP, an epic pinch hitter against them the other games, and a potentially solid defensive sub. We agree that a buyout shouldn't really be on the table (unless really cheap), but this is the perfect kind of guy to go year to year with in arbitration.

He's fine. Let's not do this on Sanchez and have him be the DLC replacement. Sanchez is fine. He hits righties, plays defense, and is cheap. And analytically, statcast says he is owed 105(!) OPS points and should be hitting .270/.325/.499(!) overall which is really something. He is probably closer to that than his current line (.719 OPS) if we split the difference, so just deploy him correctly next year against righties.

[lou]

his average fastball has been 94.2 this year after being 94.9 in his 2 starts in 2022. I think he's fine. he is also up to 115 innings a year off of TJ so he could just be running out of gas. as long as he's going 5 innings im cool with him and just build him up to go 150 next year if needed. His XFIP has been significantly lower than his ERA and his FIP in every start but 1 since he came back. Just keep on building those innings and going at least 5 every time out and move on to next year. He's at 115 IP so far. If he can get up to 130 by seasons end then build him up next year for anywhere from 150-170 IP, that is a win.

I was typing the other thing, but yes. The bold is all great, but the Marlins would never let him throw 170 IP next year (or probably ever) to quib in his current form. 150 is probably the max. He is a high stress arm remember - huge slider usage (40%). He is never throwing 170 unless that goes down 10% and he can throw FB/CU 70% of the time or so. And he doesn't have a viable changeup. Which is all fine. I bet they throw him twice more and shut him down. Then regroup in the offseason of what to do.

[lou]

If his fastball is 93 mph, I just don’t see how he makes it work.

Statcast says 94 average FWIW just to mention on the season for the FB. He could be having a late season dead arm period a little right now. This is a lot of innings for him. More than 3 years is no joke. His peak velocity gets over 95 still. It looks like he reserved some juice 2nd-4th innings and ramped it up closer to the end. I just checked his first 3 games to open the year and he was throwing just a little bit harder it seems than now (more 95+ pitches, etc.), but not by much. But practically, 94.5 versus 93.1 mph is a real change if this is where he's going to fall on a big picture level, and he needs to be living on the better end of that with peaks above it without a legitimate 3rd pitch.

The point here, we knew this from the time of draft but he always had reliever risk as a littler dude (6 feet) and lack of an established third pitch where that was all projection he'd find it on top of the wipe out slider which is a legitimate out pitch. Which he still thankfully has it looks. The obvious comment is if he is going to need to throw harder to survive, this is either (1) this is a rehab year and it will be fine next year averaging 95+. Guys do come in every spring throwing 1-2 MPH harder and those are the breakout candidates and he sure is hell is one of them with the slider. Add in minor progression on a third pitch which he clearly knows he needs + he is a competitor for sure versus other guys and wants to be great unlike Sixto who wants to be great at eating pringles, this will all work out and have to give him runway to get there. Or (2) he is reserving a little juice to go longer in games right now, and just make the call to turn him into a two pitch, two inning, 1 time through reliever. He would probably be great at it right away and 84 great Max innings over 42 appearances is better than 145 shittier ones.

A hard decision probably doesn't need to be made for awhile, but I think the soft line in the sand is he has until Eury's return, as that also may align with Snelling and Mazur biding for MLB time, as well as it's not outside possibility that White has a meteoric rise and assaults AA hard in May and June next year and just has to come up.

I don't know the answer, but much like how I feel about Cabrera, I think Max will be fine and an asset. I just won't pick a role. SP? RP? Hybrid mutli inning guy? They will figure out how to get something out of both of these guys. Ultimately, I lean on Max hasn't pitched in 3 years and is getting tired right now so just get some innings, worry about conditioning, don't get hurt, and let the Marlins coaches figure out the right usage.

[fish16]

good to see xavier edwards back after a minimal stint on the IL. not surprising to see an 0-5 after no rehab games.

Norby continues to impress. he has a clearly impact MLB bat. Edwards, Norby, Burger is a decent start to a lineup that will hopefully add Ramirez, Serna, DDLS, mack, and more in the coming years. Need to trade luzardo for 2 more impact bats for me to think we have a realistic chance of being a good team next year.

[fish16]

jesus sanchez has been across the board worse than last year in the same number of games.
Lower BB%, lower average, lower OBP, lower slugging, lower WAR, lower WRC+, lower iso. only thing better than last year is a negligible difference in K% and more SB's.

[fish16]

his average fastball has been 94.2 this year after being 94.9 in his 2 starts in 2022. I think he's fine. he is also up to 115 innings a year off of TJ so he could just be running out of gas. as long as he's going 5 innings im cool with him and just build him up to go 150 next year if needed. His XFIP has been significantly lower than his ERA and his FIP in every start but 1 since he came back. Just keep on building those innings and going at least 5 every time out and move on to next year. He's at 115 IP so far. If he can get up to 130 by seasons end then build him up next year for anywhere from 150-170 IP, that is a win.

[Nick]

If his fastball is 93 mph, I just don’t see how he makes it work.

[lou]

Ya Max is cooked

He's pitched more innings this year than 2021-2023 combined. He gets probably 2 more starts (Phillies, @ Wash) so hopefully he ends strong. Slider is there but nothing else.