2024 Game Thread

[lou]

One thing I disagree with lou on is Cabrera. I think he is a sell high player.

There's something there but...like, he might have the most hittable fastball in baseball and it drags down the rest of his secondary stuff.

To put it in perspective, the average exit velocity is 4 MPH fewer and OPS against 200 points lower on Bellozo's 4 seam compared to Cabrera despite being 8 MPH slower.

And that also limits his options as a power reliever. His sinker isn't good either.

He is so perplexing. But he has a weirdly solid finish to the year along with control seasons that they might get a team to overpay for.

Sure. I am fine if anyone wants to say he isn't going to be a frontline starter (mainly because of control issues) - to be clear my position is there is something there and he's going to be a player wherever he lands whether it's the rotation or bullpen.

I too have thought maybe he's the one to trade? For instance, he seems to always demolish the Rockies in Colorado. B. Doyle and McMahon are perfect for the Marlins even if Doyle was over his head this year. McMahon bails him out money (which is in Bruce's budgets), so Cabrera and another arm or two (and this is a good one, like Snelling as Doyle shows a lot of hit upside and the defense is perfect) in the minors becomes interesting quickly, etc. I'd probably keep him as the sky is the limit, but I'd get a move like that as part of a larger package to get them 2 big time arms for at least 2 big time bats (they have liked Rodgers in the past too - platoon SS for 1 year with you know who? Rodgers is a lefty killer). I wouldn't phrase this as a sell high - was this a high? I think most would say no.

The counterpoint to this is, his fastball might be his 5th best pitch (even if used 2nd most). The changeup is outrageously good. The slider should be a real weapon but the pitch mix was "interesting" this year with that coming in and out so they are doing something. We'll have to see if that sticks. Maybe that is a "health" cut even if good which would be disappointing. The curve is a good 3rd pitch in any evaluation even if not elite. That's fine. I fully agree the fastball/sinker are holding Cabrera back to an extent, but if either gets figured out to an average (or even acceptably below average) pitch, he's a 1/2 starter with everything else versus a frustrating walk happy mid/back rotation guy who randomly dominates.

I'd also quib he throws the changeup so outrageously hard, it can effectively operate as what a fastball historically does. i.e., the set up the offspeed stuff. His FB/Sinker are 96 and change 93 which is silly. The curve is 84, and slider 89. His changeup is genuinely a velocity change from this breaking options, and unique as its one of the hardest changeups all over. If he's going to throw the change that hard, he has the velocity gaps in pitch types where he can be a changeup, curveball, and slider pitcher as he has the 3 pitches without a fastball. Of course, this is where "bad control" and "slider usage dropped to 8.5%" come in where yes I agree there needs to be the FB/sinker somewhere to likely survive in being a great SP.... but he may not need that to be a changeup, curveball, and show me-slider and fastball 2.5 pitch reliever. There are no reliever limitations here for me with that kind of set up if there is enough control (ala Scott level control 23/24 range. Not great, but everything else is unhittable so it works). Hence, why when I see a low $2m arbitration projection for him for 2025, you get to a 5/$30m + 6th year option comp quickly (that's 1-2 free agency years), and paying Cabrera as an "above average" reliever versus a starting pitcher is a perfect "buy low" opportunity as full circle - there's something here.

Ultimately, he's a keep for me for at least another year as I think they are tapping into this pitch mix with larger changeup usage (let's get that over 40% and not at 33%, use the curve/slider 35% of the time and not 30%+, and decrease the FB/sinker to 25% versus 36%+. These are the tweaks to figure out. It's basically throw the changeup more and 3-5 more sliders a game) and maybe some control comes with age. His walks were down a lot this year and he didn't sacrifice many whiffs. Maybe you are right and the lack of a FB kills him, but this is a jumping off point for me. I have been killed before on enthusiasm levels like this (this is where we say HERMIDA) but I love this guy.


Good discussion post Todd. I agree - perplexing but I am a buyer. Maybe they can extract more value via trade than keeping. We shall see.

[Nick]

Cabrera is a true wild card for sure, I'm not sure we'd be actually selling high with him dealing him this offseason, but maybe we would be.

I've always been a huge fan of his, but it's been quite a while now and he still hasn't put it together. I think I'm still in the camp of holding on to him and hoping he turns into the ace I think he could be. Is he a top 5 pitcher for us going into next season, though? I guess yes, until Eury comes back, but I'd have Weathers, Luzardo and Garrett in front of him.

[Todd]

One thing I disagree with lou on is Cabrera. I think he is a sell high player.

There's something there but...like, he might have the most hittable fastball in baseball and it drags down the rest of his secondary stuff.

To put it in perspective, the average exit velocity is 4 MPH fewer and OPS against 200 points lower on Bellozo's 4 seam compared to Cabrera despite being 8 MPH slower.

And that also limits his options as a power reliever. His sinker isn't good either.

He is so perplexing. But he has a weirdly solid finish to the year along with control seasons that they might get a team to overpay for.

[lou]

i never said "it's fine." I said bitching about michael lorenzon not signing here when the rotation was already completely decimated was a waste of time. And i was right because there was no signing that was making up for the complete devastation they had in our rotation. A bullpen of Faucher, Nardi, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller, and Veneziano/Mcmillan is a truly awful bullpen. Going into next season with that being the bullpen would be a giant mistake.

this team is not signing significant bats. there is no desperate money issue here. any bats they add would be cost controlled long term pieces. so yes, there is plenty of room to both add bats as well as spend on a couple bullpen arms that would provide stability in the early months of the year plus give them potentially a few pieces to deal in july. obviously bats are a priority. ive never said anything to the contrary. But adding cost controlled long term bats AND spending on making the bullpen better are not incompatible. Relying on that group of relievers is a really fucking dumb idea. it is the lee stone of bullpen construction. and it will go very poorly.

Faucher, Nardi, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller, Veneziano, and McMillian - 5.3 WAR in 2024. Would be the # 8 bullpen in baseball in 2024. If they do half that, 22nd in baseball. Which is not "truly awful." Just below average. Only Marlins fans could have the # 1 bullpen in baseball 2023 and 2024 combined, have a ton of viable options who are fine, and be so down on it.


And I would love the bold to be true for this organization. A viable 2nd lefty would genuinely be a good get over say Baumann or Petersen for the last spot, even if those guys are fine to keep.

I'll say it again - Angels have Neto, T. Ward, and B. Burke which is a SS, right handed CF, and lefty reliever. Blow them away. That's 5, 2 and 2 years of control, and combined 6.6 WAR last year and will cost $9m total next year. Blow out the farm, Angels suck and headline that with Noble, Serna, Head/Morlando/Johnson, and 3 more guys outside the top 10 prospects. That is really hard for them to pass up for just Neto as Ward don't get too much with only 2 years of control and Burke is solid reliever only and not going to get a Scott return down the road.

Payroll $74m:

Fortes, ____ ----> Ramirez
Burger, Bride ----> DDLS
Edwards, Otto
NETO
Norby
Stowers, Dane ----> Martorella, Marsee
WARD, Sanoja
Sanchez

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Max ----> Eury, Snelling, Mazur
Faucher, Bender, Tinoco/Cronin, Oller (AAA - McMillian, Maldonado, Petersen, Bellozo)
Nardi, Burke, Veneziano (AAA - Simpson)


That's the kind of move that could be a lightning bolt as Bruce does spend $90m and this is SCREAMING for a free agent 3B/LF to kick someone to AAA there and the rest can be moved to a bridge catcher.

So that loops back to Nick - are they going to do something like this, as there will be a cost in prospects at a minimum. I would not give 1 fuck giving up Noble, Serna, and another strong FV45+ top 10 guy and three more guys in top 10-20 (excluding Mack) if they some long term bats.

[Namaste]

:popcorn:

[lou]

Bendix has forced 2025 to be a rebuilding year. There's no way around it. Continue to throw shit at the wall, then spend money on 1 or 2 proven reliever commodities the offseason after. (won't happen)

It depends, but maybe. I think this could produce a contending team because they have the arms:

1 - Luzardo + RP trade for a good SS/3B/CF
2 - Noble + Serna/Edwards trade for a good SS/3B/CF
3 - Spending money on the third of those - minimum a Bader type
4 - Spending money on a SP to replace Luzardo

It can be sub $90m, but he will have to commit to making major moves and cash in major assets to get these 4 guys and we might not like the result if someone doesn't pan out.

But if the idea is they do not plant the flag like above (this is likely and yes, I am here too), it is more than likely a rebuilding year to get healthy SP and get Ramirez, DDLS, Serna, Norby, etc. and gang's feet wet. That sets up the midseason Luzardo and yes Todd, Sandy, trades (probably Burger, Sanchez, Fortes, Nardi, Bender, etc. too. All the money), which plug all the holes on paper, and 2026 looks like that young Orioles/good Rays team name wise and do the prospects work out? It's the reality of a shitty owner.


And this really is the focus. Are they going to do that or are we getting a true development year with keeping SP healthy to trade them and just easing in everyone? In addition to that above list, could add Mack, Snelling, Mazur, McMillian, Martorella, Marsee, even Dane has not really gotten the dedicated 250 PA in a row yet, etc. A ton of turnover potentially next year (which may not be a bad thing longterm, but ya know when are they going to try to win immediately??? How long is it going to take for Bruce to try and move faster???).

[fish16]

What torpedos the season quickly is putting all your eggs in the Bethancourt, Anderson, Brujan, and Gordon basket, and if you have a SP deficiency, not signing innings. And I remind you, every single person here except you criticized the 2024 offseason in March for getting these shlubs and not signing an innings eater (Lorenzen) post-playoffs, and you were "its fine." So let's talk about it being the same thing every year and are you going to get it this offseason and not predict 87 win seasons and think they have enough depth when they don't? You are projecting here again.

I'll tell you one thing that isn't going to torpedo the season - Tinoco, Oller, and Veneziano/McMillian as your last 3 relievers after Faucher, Nardi, Bender, and Cronin, with Eury, Snelling, and Mazur (and potentially others) coming midseason for people's jobs. That isn't tanking anything. Bride, Hill, Brujan, Conine, and Pereda is a death sentence opening day.

i never said "it's fine." I said bitching about michael lorenzon not signing here when the rotation was already completely decimated was a waste of time. And i was right because there was no signing that was making up for the complete devastation they had in our rotation. A bullpen of Faucher, Nardi, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller, and Veneziano/Mcmillan is a truly awful bullpen. Going into next season with that being the bullpen would be a giant mistake.

this team is not signing significant bats. there is no desperate money issue here. any bats they add would be cost controlled long term pieces. so yes, there is plenty of room to both add bats as well as spend on a couple bullpen arms that would provide stability in the early months of the year plus give them potentially a few pieces to deal in july. obviously bats are a priority. ive never said anything to the contrary. But adding cost controlled long term bats AND spending on making the bullpen better are not incompatible. Relying on that group of relievers is a really fucking dumb idea. it is the lee stone of bullpen construction. and it will go very poorly.

[lou]

it's the same thing every year with him. and when he's proven wrong to start next year, it will be that the process was correct but it just didnt pan out as opposed to it being a stupid point to begin with. these guys are fringe major leaguers and/or guys with almost 0 major league experience. to rely on them to start next year instead of signing a couple of steady veteran bullpen arms is a great way to torpedo a season pretty quickly that is already probably pretty close to a non-contending year to begin with.

What torpedos the season quickly is putting all your eggs in the Bethancourt, Anderson, Brujan, and Gordon basket, and if you have a SP deficiency, not signing innings. And I remind you, every single person here except you criticized the 2024 offseason in March for getting these shlubs and not signing an innings eater (Lorenzen) post-playoffs, and you were "its fine." So let's talk about it being the same thing every year and are you going to get it this offseason and not predict 87 win seasons and think they have enough depth when they don't? You are projecting here again.

I'll tell you one thing that isn't going to torpedo the season - Tinoco, Oller, and Veneziano/McMillian as your last 3 relievers after Faucher, Nardi, Bender, and Cronin, with Eury, Snelling, and Mazur (and potentially others) coming midseason for people's jobs. That isn't tanking anything. Bride, Hill, Brujan, Conine, and Pereda is a death sentence opening day.

[lou]

Tinoco has -.6 career WAR and .8 of that came with the Marlins last year. He has an ERA of almost 5 in the minors. He seems like a typical bad reliever who had a random stretch of good games more than anything.

Sure - but he looked good, relievers are volatile, and he'll be protected on the 40 with a real solid floor as a 4th/5th RHP out of the pen to open. And if he falls apart, he'll get pushed off. That easy.

To also note, his FB velocity is significantly up from 2019-2021. It was up in 2022. Since then, he's been very solid in AAA over 70 innings, and very solid at the MLB level for 60 innings. It's really important to see how guys generate their production as including time in Colorado in 2019 when he was throwing slower for some reason to what Tinoco threw in 2024 at a higher velocity is not relevant. We gotta look under the hood. He is a real interesting find right now and credit to Bendix.

[lou]

They arent signing bats in free agency. Not sure how that could not be any clearer at this point. Not sure why we do this every single offseason.

a 3.99 bullpen XFIP was middle of the pack for the time period in question after the deadline.

there is no 40 man roster crunch. you could easily trim 8 guys who are shit off the 40 man right now without blinking an eye. For example, shaun anderson, lake bachar, mike baumann, darren mcgaughan, roddery munoz, michael petersen, jhonny pereda, vidal brujan, david hensley. replace some of them with the 60 day IL guys who will be ready to start next year like Nardi, Sandy, Luzardo, and Garrett, and get rid of Sixto because he's awful.

You could easily slide josh simpson through waivers as well depending on the time of year you take him off the 40 man because he hasnt done jack shit for 2 years in AAA on top of being consistently injured the last 2 years.

Penciling in tinoco after 26 innings is just dumb given his track record. Saying "Tinoco had a fantastic year" based off 26 innings is Lee Stone reincarnate. Penciling Oller as this dynamite reliever after 0 proof of him being any kind of good pitcher is also stupid. You can do the DLC swing change/positioning on the rubber change but it doesnt change who he is and who he has been. He's not a good pitcher. He's also been a reliever previously and was awful. You said the changes have "produced results." The guy had a 5.24 XFIP, 7.65 k/9, and 4.68 BB/9. He's just not good. And when he sucks to start next season you will just say it was the right process instead of admitting that you were wrong. No one is claiming him. Penciling in Veneziano after 11 innings is absurd. IF you want to bring them to spring and see if they earn a spot be my guest, but relying on these guys is really dumb instead of spending the 5-7 million it would take to sign 2 quality bullpen arms that would give this team some proven stability in the bullpen.

No one is saying that you cant make some sort of argument for any of those guys. You could also make an argument against all of them. I'm saying that penciling them in next year and acting like we have a good bullpen based off a super small sample size for a team 40 games under .500 is absurd. This team needs 2 proven, quality relievers on top of those guys.

Yikes. Basically, everything isn't accurate here.


Where did I say they will sign bats? They still need to get bats. Trades, signings, waiver claims. Who cares.

Middle of the pack is extremely good to have for club controlled prices when there are other large issues on the team.

You are struggling with an understanding of the 40 man roster with that list you put forth. For instance, you listed 8 guys who can be trimmed, but don't realize 5 are on the 60 day IL right now so they don't count, and then there are new additions coming (Banfield, DDLS, etc.) that will claim spots. So you just described "1" spot on the 40 man just like that. You have to carry guys on the 40 when injured so it's not like you can carry extra guys in the offseason just because Sandy is hurt. They have this right now:

Fortes, Ramirez, Banfield (3)
Burger, Bride, DDLS (3)
Edwards, Otto, Serna (3)
_____ (1 - I am anticipating an IF trade/signing, or insert Brujan to hold for now)
Norby, Pauley (2)
Stowers, Conine (2)
_____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr (3 - I am ancipating another OF, or insert Hill)
Sanchez, Dane (2)
=19

Not much room here. They do need those other players to upgrade Brujan and Hill, and past that, giving up on Conine or Stowers is a drop. Bride could be a drop. Maybe they could sneak Banfield through, but he's a supposed plus defender, and look at what happened with Nasim. Maybe Pauley is a sneak through but they just got him so they like him. I don't see much churning here, but they likely have 4 spots here but will immediately replace them with MLB options.


SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers, Mazur, Bellozzo (8)
RHP - Faucher, Bender, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco(OOO), Maldonado, Oller(OOO), Baumann/M. Petersen (8)
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano, Simpson (3)
Prospect - Fulton (1)
IL - Eury (1)
=21

Not much room here either as absent a trade of a RP, they are already cutting 1 reliever here as yes Tinoco, Oller, Baumann, Petersen, and Bellozo are worth keeping, and exposing lefties like Simpson is a bad idea. I already said they could potentially improve on some of these last 3 arms or so, but my extremely clear point was they bats need a lot more help so lets not devote $$$$ to the team's 18th, 19th, and 20th pitchers for 2025. Seems reasonable (as others like Eury and Snelling will bump up on this during the season, etc.).

Eury is the only guy who will be able to be IL'd early, and that's why you sign a veteran catcher to an MiLB deal and tell him he gets the spot when they can make that transaction move. As the bridge catcher is missing here. So yes, there is a 40 man crunch and they will have to cut a viable RP or a semi-interesting bat name to make moves. I predict at least 1 RP is traded as part of a package for a bat. It's combining a second arm to Luzardo, likely a slider-based RP like Cronin or Tinoco to someone who likes them.


Tinoco had a 3.73 xFIP (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/je...ats?position=P) and analytics back it (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb), so yes Tinoco is 100% penciled into the 2025 bullpen to open absent they trade him. It may just be a good stretch, but that has nothing to do with protecting the player on the 40 man as he is clearly one of their top 20 pitchers that needs to be protected and will have a front runner spot for the bullpen in spring training if not outright guaranteed because of lack of options. He was objectively good. Maybe he's a late bloomer. Who knows?

Oller is a bit more skeptical I agree, but the results speak for themselves. But of course, you didn't watch them and now you move into a red herring argument about DLC and not talking about why his slurve is bad, nor why his 1st time through stats is what matters. He's a probably keep as he showed enough, but maybe many good RP options become available on waivers and then cool. But for present purposes, he's penciled into the 40.

And yes, these type of moves are the right process. I have no idea if Tinoco or Oller hold up - NOR DOES IT MATTER. I do know for the purposes of the 40 man roster, these are top 20 arms that need protection in the organization right now and would be disappointing drops to lose them for nothing. You are an incredible black and white person when the world is grey. Good decisions can lead to bad results. That's fine. Make these enough all of a sudden, one does get Faucher and Cronin for basically free which they did before 2024. I think we will consider 2-3 arms they churned end of this season in the same manner.

Veneziano is the 2nd best lefty reliever in the organization at the MLB level. He's not going to be churned out off the 40 man - because that is the level of analysis my dude and not whatever it is you are doing here.

All of these relievers are fine options to try out in the spring and April/May. Every $5-7m they have open needs to go to bats, bats, and more bats because the team can pitch and not hit. It is very on brand for Marlins fans to complain about the "best" bullpen in the existence of the Marlins organization, as that was what Bendix pulled off in 2024. It was the best bullpen year the organization has ever had. They weren't in top 2 in RP innings this year either so it's not like it's a total quantity outlier. The guys were just very good/solid. As well as, the Marlins have had the # 1 bullpen in baseball over 2023-2024. I repeat, the Marlins have had the best bullpen in baseball over 2 years. Yes a lot of that was Scott and Puk, but it wasn't just them. Every fan base hates their bullpen because ones focus on things like...... AJ Puk giving up a HR in the 9th which you joyously announced after weeks of waiting, and ignore that for the previous 43 appearances, he gave up 1 total ER in one of the most dominant RP stretches in recent history. That's just how it works. I would love for some perspective to seep into Marlins fans bones to understand what is actually happening around the league because when one watches and looks at what other teams are throwing - we are LUCKY they have these relievers and Bendix was smart AF plugging 40 man arm holes for free after trading out Scott, Puk, Brazoban, and Hoeing. This was an A+ job with reliever churning. Even if the guys don't work out - smart process leads to better results and this was smart process. They will get a few arms out of this. Practically, Faucher, Cronin, McMillian and Veneziano will likely be around for a bit unless traded. Adding in Nardi and Bender as hold overs. This is a practically full bullpen and churning the last spot and the AAA group. If anything here, Bendix has proven HE CAN CHURN RP GUYS so when we're talking about spending $$$$, why are we mentioning spending money ON LITERALLY THE ONE THING BENDIX JUST PROVED HE IS GOOD AT DOING AT -0- COST??? Some people just like to watch the world burn????

The bullpen is totally fine. This again is - look around the league. Bendix deserves a ton of credit where he's positioned himself he doesn't have to spend any money on the staff if he so chooses (absent if Luzardo/MLB SP is traded yes he has to sign 1 of those).

[fish16]

A xFIP 3.99 bullpen is good

Again, you keep saying you are writing names, then acknowledge (correctly) McMillian looks nice, which means there is a 100% chance he is kept on the 40 man absent catastrophic arm injury. So they have limited space. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately (Rockies have 1st position). I note again he was a borderline top 100 prospect as a RP to FG, and he showed up with decreased velocity so he got dropped, and it rebounded. This is a Scott level RP upside if he stops walking people and holds this velocity. Huge upside. I have no idea if those walks stop, but you try those guys out each time without question.

Veneziano is interesting, but I suppose I solely rely on statcast, even though you struggle to reconcile when I say things that arguably go against statcast. If you knew who Veneziano is, you'd know he is a starter they are turning into a RP so he is likely going to play up in bursts so he is becoming something new. It's why he was a xFIP 3.89 with his SSS at the big league level. Adding he is a lefty, he is extremely likely a keep on the 40 man so they have limited space. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately.

You have no idea about Oller because you haven't watched and are digging deep for historical stats (which is something you criticize me for doing, so tough to reconcile). The Marlins moved his windup to a different part of the rubber and his pitches are moving on a different plane to the plate now which is producing the results. His xwOBA for his Slurve is .217 (that is dominant pitch numbers), and he's flashing enough of a 2nd pitch (curveball primarily) to likely turn into 2 pitch and show-me 3rd pitch 2 inning reliever. His stats 1 time through are OK. He is a project for sure, but I think a worthy one. It is why, they let him start among all of these churned guys. He is, a strong 40 man keep as the 2nd to last or last righty in the pen and see what you get if that slurve can carve people up for 2 innings. Not sure if the Rockies would take him, but wouldn't get past the Angels or White Sox.

Simpson is a lefty and before the season they said he was the organization's pick for a Nardi-like breakout. They like him. He is likely a strong 40 man pick as a lefty which they are low on. Someone would claim him in waivers. He was just hurt but he is a 40 man keep as a lefty..

Tinoco had a fantastic year, both actual and analytics, and it's not an arm you cut. He is a 40 man lock. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately. Also, this whole thing about bullpen depth is do they have 4th, 5th, and 6th relievers. No one but McMillian is likely a top top option, but that's OK if you develop a cheap group of solid club controlled guys, and then go gold mining for McMillian, Puk, and Scott type guys who sometimes work out like the later two did.

Maldonado is a prospect, but has a grade 70 slider and is flashing. He is close to a 40 man lock. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies, Angels, or White Sox. With an option he is an obvious keep.

Faucher had a 1.3 WAR last year with an xFIP of 3.76. He looked every bit of the part. He was the 26th most valuable RP in baseball last year. I encourage you to watch games and understand what the rest of the league is throwing as it is often ugly. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately. He is very solid, but should be your 3rd or 4th reliever not arguably 1st.




What Bendix is doing is exactly what you want - doing Rays things. All of this, is a Rays bullpen of names they turn into something. You should be happy doing exactly what you want them to do - churning cheap and viable RP - and not doing things like signing RP, which the Rays don't do. You can sell me on upgrading Baumann, Petersen, and Bellozo, but again, they need bats and this is way way way down the priority list for worrying about your last relievers and 8th SP over legitimately needing 4 offensive upgrades and 2 of those being huge upgrades. Those 3 are probably fine 18th, 19th, and 20th pitchers, even if churnable if another McMillian or Veneziano pops on waivers.

So big picture, the bullpen - which again was # 2 in the league and only dropped to # 12 removing Scott, Puk, Brazoban, Hoeing, and Burch - is in much better shape than you think it is. And if you don't believe me, many guys they have churned already are on other 40 man rosters (Burch, de Geus, Ramirez, Kitchen, Tyler), so their cast offs are being picked up immediately on waivers. Meaning, the Marlins have some real depth here if other teams like the leftovers.


Bats, Bats, Bats. Of course, if Bruce spends $130m by all means sign luxury relievers to improve here. I won't hold my breath.

They arent signing bats in free agency. Not sure how that could not be any clearer at this point. Not sure why we do this every single offseason.

a 3.99 bullpen XFIP was middle of the pack for the time period in question after the deadline.

there is no 40 man roster crunch. you could easily trim 8 guys who are shit off the 40 man right now without blinking an eye. For example, shaun anderson, lake bachar, mike baumann, darren mcgaughan, roddery munoz, michael petersen, jhonny pereda, vidal brujan, david hensley. replace some of them with the 60 day IL guys who will be ready to start next year like Nardi, Sandy, Luzardo, and Garrett, and get rid of Sixto because he's awful.

You could easily slide josh simpson through waivers as well depending on the time of year you take him off the 40 man because he hasnt done jack shit for 2 years in AAA on top of being consistently injured the last 2 years.

Penciling in tinoco after 26 innings is just dumb given his track record. Saying "Tinoco had a fantastic year" based off 26 innings is Lee Stone reincarnate. Penciling Oller as this dynamite reliever after 0 proof of him being any kind of good pitcher is also stupid. You can do the DLC swing change/positioning on the rubber change but it doesnt change who he is and who he has been. He's not a good pitcher. He's also been a reliever previously and was awful. You said the changes have "produced results." The guy had a 5.24 XFIP, 7.65 k/9, and 4.68 BB/9. He's just not good. And when he sucks to start next season you will just say it was the right process instead of admitting that you were wrong. No one is claiming him. Penciling in Veneziano after 11 innings is absurd. IF you want to bring them to spring and see if they earn a spot be my guest, but relying on these guys is really dumb instead of spending the 5-7 million it would take to sign 2 quality bullpen arms that would give this team some proven stability in the bullpen.

No one is saying that you cant make some sort of argument for any of those guys. You could also make an argument against all of them. I'm saying that penciling them in next year and acting like we have a good bullpen based off a super small sample size for a team 40 games under .500 is absurd. This team needs 2 proven, quality relievers on top of those guys.

[fish16]

Tinoco has -.6 career WAR and .8 of that came with the Marlins last year. He has an ERA of almost 5 in the minors. He seems like a typical bad reliever who had a random stretch of good games more than anything.

it's the same thing every year with him. and when he's proven wrong to start next year, it will be that the process was correct but it just didnt pan out as opposed to it being a stupid point to begin with. these guys are fringe major leaguers and/or guys with almost 0 major league experience. to rely on them to start next year instead of signing a couple of steady veteran bullpen arms is a great way to torpedo a season pretty quickly that is already probably pretty close to a non-contending year to begin with.

[Todd]

Tinoco has -.6 career WAR and .8 of that came with the Marlins last year. He has an ERA of almost 5 in the minors. He seems like a typical bad reliever who had a random stretch of good games more than anything.

[lou]

Our relievers from August 1 through the end of the year were middle of the pack with a 3.99 XFIP. Thh reason they have such a high WAR is because the entire rotation was out and they pitched the 3rd most innings after august 1st.

you're just writing down names. none of those guys have proven a fucking thing. Mcmillion has pitched 16 major league innings. the statcast looks nice. but he's pitched 16 innings.

Veneziano has a terrible looking baseball savant page, and he's pitched 13 major league innings with a 1.43 WHIP.

Adam oller has pitched 136 major league innings, he has a 6.54 ERA, has given up 154 hits, along with another 73 walks to 95 strikeouts. Saying anything about him is dominant is a joke. His baseball savant page does not have a single above average metric to it. And it's not because he was starting. He's just not very good. in 2023 he came out of oakland's bullpen for 8 of his 9 appearances and had a 10 ERA with 12 walks and 13 strikeouts.

Josh simpson is 27 and has not thrown a major league pitch.

tinoco had good numbers in meaningless baseball games, but i would venture that there is probably a reason he has been on 4 teams in 4 years. He's probably just a guy. And definitely isnt a guy you rely on to the detriment of not signing a proven commodity.

Anthony maldonado has pitched 19 innings and wasnt all that impressive with just 11 k's, 7 walks, and another 21 hits.

Calvin faucher has pitched 100 major league innings and has a 4.65 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP.

You're just writing down names and acting as if any of these guys are all that impressive. Not a single guy you named should be stopping this team from going out and signing 1 proven set up arm and another proven quality middle reliever on small 1 year deals. You can filter these other guys into the other spots in the bullpen around them.

A xFIP 3.99 bullpen is good

Again, you keep saying you are writing names, then acknowledge (correctly) McMillian looks nice, which means there is a 100% chance he is kept on the 40 man absent catastrophic arm injury. So they have limited space. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately (Rockies have 1st position). I note again he was a borderline top 100 prospect as a RP to FG, and he showed up with decreased velocity so he got dropped, and it rebounded. This is a Scott level RP upside if he stops walking people and holds this velocity. Huge upside. I have no idea if those walks stop, but you try those guys out each time without question.

Veneziano is interesting, but I suppose I solely rely on statcast, even though you struggle to reconcile when I say things that arguably go against statcast. If you knew who Veneziano is, you'd know he is a starter they are turning into a RP so he is likely going to play up in bursts so he is becoming something new. It's why he was a xFIP 3.89 with his SSS at the big league level. Adding he is a lefty, he is extremely likely a keep on the 40 man so they have limited space. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately.

You have no idea about Oller because you haven't watched and are digging deep for historical stats (which is something you criticize me for doing, so tough to reconcile). The Marlins moved his windup to a different part of the rubber and his pitches are moving on a different plane to the plate now which is producing the results. His xwOBA for his Slurve is .217 (that is dominant pitch numbers), and he's flashing enough of a 2nd pitch (curveball primarily) to likely turn into 2 pitch and show-me 3rd pitch 2 inning reliever. His stats 1 time through are OK. He is a project for sure, but I think a worthy one. It is why, they let him start among all of these churned guys. He is, a strong 40 man keep as the 2nd to last or last righty in the pen and see what you get if that slurve can carve people up for 2 innings. Not sure if the Rockies would take him, but wouldn't get past the Angels or White Sox.

Simpson is a lefty and before the season they said he was the organization's pick for a Nardi-like breakout. They like him. He is likely a strong 40 man pick as a lefty which they are low on. Someone would claim him in waivers. He was just hurt but he is a 40 man keep as a lefty..

Tinoco had a fantastic year, both actual and analytics, and it's not an arm you cut. He is a 40 man lock. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately. Also, this whole thing about bullpen depth is do they have 4th, 5th, and 6th relievers. No one but McMillian is likely a top top option, but that's OK if you develop a cheap group of solid club controlled guys, and then go gold mining for McMillian, Puk, and Scott type guys who sometimes work out like the later two did.

Maldonado is a prospect, but has a grade 70 slider and is flashing. He is close to a 40 man lock. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies, Angels, or White Sox. With an option he is an obvious keep.

Faucher had a 1.3 WAR last year with an xFIP of 3.76. He looked every bit of the part. He was the 26th most valuable RP in baseball last year. I encourage you to watch games and understand what the rest of the league is throwing as it is often ugly. Would be picked up on waivers by the Rockies immediately. He is very solid, but should be your 3rd or 4th reliever not arguably 1st.




What Bendix is doing is exactly what you want - doing Rays things. All of this, is a Rays bullpen of names they turn into something. You should be happy doing exactly what you want them to do - churning cheap and viable RP - and not doing things like signing RP, which the Rays don't do. You can sell me on upgrading Baumann, Petersen, and Bellozo, but again, they need bats and this is way way way down the priority list for worrying about your last relievers and 8th SP over legitimately needing 4 offensive upgrades and 2 of those being huge upgrades. Those 3 are probably fine 18th, 19th, and 20th pitchers, even if churnable if another McMillian or Veneziano pops on waivers.

So big picture, the bullpen - which again was # 2 in the league and only dropped to # 12 removing Scott, Puk, Brazoban, Hoeing, and Burch - is in much better shape than you think it is. And if you don't believe me, many guys they have churned already are on other 40 man rosters (Burch, de Geus, Ramirez, Kitchen, Tyler), so their cast offs are being picked up immediately on waivers. Meaning, the Marlins have some real depth here if other teams like the leftovers.


Bats, Bats, Bats. Of course, if Bruce spends $130m by all means sign luxury relievers to improve here. I won't hold my breath.

[fish16]

Here we go again.

Bride has likely "earned" a roster spot on the 40 entering next year, but is going to get churned out when better options (DDLS, Ramirez, Martorella) bump him off. Which could happen 15 days into the season as that is when the service time rolls over, even if it is more than likely mid-June for the S2 deadline. Bride is a light hitting, no defense player. He is an AAAA guy - just like Bellozo - who has shown enough to stick around and maybe have some depth value not having a negative value player, but neither is likely going to do much. I'd like to note I was on the call up Bride train about 2 months before everyone in April, so yes I am more aware than you are about who Bride is and what he has done in AAA, but when you get the data points he is not great compared to his peers. It is OK to reassess. The guy is over achieving. It's that easy. He'll be off the 40 man by mid-June when DDLS and Ramirez are ready.



Frankly, not liking the relievers is saying outloud "I don't watch any of these guys" and we're projecting here again. First, Faucher, Bender, and Nardi are at minimum obviously keeps (Cronin too, but I think he should be traded because they have so much depth so call it 3-4 guys). So they only need (since they have 6 SP) only 4-5 more guys for the pen. And then depth options:

Tinoco - he is good. You're not getting rid of this - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-pitching-mlb;

McMillian - he is potentially really good and was a borderline top 100 prospect a year ago. 0 chance they cut him unless catastrophically hurt. KC messed up - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Veneziano - This is a fine 3rd bullpen lefty, with potentially more upside if they move him to a real slider dependent guy. You're not giving up on him. - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Oller - I don't know how many times one has to say it, but his slurve is dominant and he is miscast as a SP. Being a max effort 2 IP guy is extremely interesting. He is OOO which sucks, but I think he will stick as the "longman" of the bullpen to open the year - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Maldonado - His slider is incredibly projectable and has an option. He stays. - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Simpson - He was hurt, but they really like him + a lefty. He started settling down in AAA the end of the year as he got into 15 games or so. He has an option. He stays. - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...ats?position=P


So this is a full pitching staff (as they have 6 SP + Eury + Mazur + Fulton is on the 40) without Cronin. Keep Cronin and this is even better. This is 18-19 guys without and with Cronin.


So saying sign 2 relievers pushes two of Baumann (interesting velocity/curve profile), Bellozo (kitchen sink 5 pitch inventory starter), or Petersen (great AAA year, cutter profile) off the roster, and if they keep Cronin and sign 2 guys, it's all 3. Practically, if they spend to improve that is OK of course, but now you're running into a problem Tinoco and Oller are OOO so this becomes the MLB staff:

Sandy, Luzardo/FA, Garret, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (MiLB - Eury, Mazur, Bellozo, Fulton)
Faucher, Bender, Tinoco, Oller, "Some free agent" (AAA - McMillian, Maldonado)
Nardi, "Some free agent" (AAA - Veneziano, Simpson)

And that's without Cronin*

McMillian, Veneziano, and Maldonado would probably each make 15-20+ bullpens in baseball for some perspective so this is some real arm talent in AAA. I might be low here. This is frankly a depth area. While you like to say you're just listing names, in reality Baumann and Petersen can very easily be viable "4th" RHP pitchers out of the bullpen immediately (or completely expendable and churned for the next waiver guy like him or better), so since they have these guys, why spend money (literally any money) to improve the last 2 guys in the bullpen which will predominantly be low leverage innings, versus they legitimately need 4 bats added to the roster to become viable. THIS TEAM NEEDS HITTING, HITTING, AND MORE HITTING.

So per your comment - they cannot continue to go into every single season just throwing shit against the wall in april and may to see what sticks. It's ok to have some competency out of the gate with the bullpen. It wont cost much in terms of money or years, and it will possibly prevent the season from going into a tailspin early again. No one is asking to sign 5 relievers, but signing a proven back end arm or 2 middle relievers to low money 1 year deals is necessary.

What they can't keep doing is opening the season with Bethancourt, Anderson, Brujan, and N. Gordon.... which is what something like "whatever they are going to do for their 2nd catcher," Bride, D. Hill, and Stowers/Dane/Sanoja, with Edwards miscast at SS and Norby miscast at 3B is. All the resources need to go to the bats. All of them. The bullpen is in much better shape than you think it is which is a compliment to Bendix. He put together the # 2 bullpen in baseball despite the revolving door, and yes some of that is due to many innings, but it's going to open the year as-is as a top 12 unit as a floor. It's fine. Bats, Bats, Bats.


Lastly, and as stated, they shouldn't sign an innings eater unless they move a MLB SP. It's just that easy. They have the innings right now.

Our relievers from August 1 through the end of the year were middle of the pack with a 3.99 XFIP. Thh reason they have such a high WAR is because the entire rotation was out and they pitched the 3rd most innings after august 1st.

you're just writing down names. none of those guys have proven a fucking thing. Mcmillion has pitched 16 major league innings. the statcast looks nice. but he's pitched 16 innings.

Veneziano has a terrible looking baseball savant page, and he's pitched 13 major league innings with a 1.43 WHIP.

Adam oller has pitched 136 major league innings, he has a 6.54 ERA, has given up 154 hits, along with another 73 walks to 95 strikeouts. Saying anything about him is dominant is a joke. His baseball savant page does not have a single above average metric to it. And it's not because he was starting. He's just not very good. in 2023 he came out of oakland's bullpen for 8 of his 9 appearances and had a 10 ERA with 12 walks and 13 strikeouts.

Josh simpson is 27 and has not thrown a major league pitch.

tinoco had good numbers in meaningless baseball games, but i would venture that there is probably a reason he has been on 4 teams in 4 years. He's probably just a guy. And definitely isnt a guy you rely on to the detriment of not signing a proven commodity.

Anthony maldonado has pitched 19 innings and wasnt all that impressive with just 11 k's, 7 walks, and another 21 hits.

Calvin faucher has pitched 100 major league innings and has a 4.65 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP.

You're just writing down names and acting as if any of these guys are all that impressive. Not a single guy you named should be stopping this team from going out and signing 1 proven set up arm and another proven quality middle reliever on small 1 year deals. You can filter these other guys into the other spots in the bullpen around them.