2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

I mean ya, if they will take 2 guys coming off tommy John, 2 a ball prospects having terrible years, a guy well over performing his ability, and 2 terrible contracts for a future hall of famer, set up man, and catcher, ya id do it

My 2nd post was serious, I'd give them pretty much any combination of players in our minor leagues that they wanted. Still probably not enough to get it done, adding Segura and Garcia was just a way to make the money make sense considering Bruce won't spend.

[fish16]

My 2nd post was serious, I'd give them pretty much any combination of players in our minor leagues that they wanted. Still probably not enough to get it done, adding Segura and Garcia was just a way to make the money make sense considering Bruce won't spend.

Even setting aside how little Bruce is willing to spend, we really have nothing to offer that won’t subtract from our current roster because of how bad they have been at drafting and player development and every one of our top pitching prospects is injured. At this point I think they are limited to the mid tier of the deadline. We don’t have what it takes to get a star level talent at this point.

[Nick]

Even setting aside how little Bruce is willing to spend, we really have nothing to offer that won’t subtract from our current roster because of how bad they have been at drafting and player development and every one of our top pitching prospects is injured. At this point I think they are limited to the mid tier of the deadline. We don’t have what it takes to get a star level talent at this point.

We certainly do, but Bruce would have to spend a chunk of change.

[fish16]

We certainly do, but Bruce would have to spend a chunk of change.

Exactly, we have the type of prospects that would require you to take on a ton of future salary. I wouldn’t even want him to do that unless you’re getting a legitimate star and not just another bad contract. We don’t have the type of prospects in the system currently that allow you to get an impact player that doesn’t also have a contract that is huge money years into the future

[Namaste]

The Braves, Giants, Phillies and Reds have won 27 games in a row.

[Nick]

Exactly, we have the type of prospects that would require you to take on a ton of future salary. I wouldn’t even want him to do that unless you’re getting a legitimate star and not just another bad contract. We don’t have the type of prospects in the system currently that allow you to get an impact player that doesn’t also have a contract that is huge money years into the future

I don’t necessarily agree. Goldschmidt makes a ton of money and is old, but he’s still worth that money and his contract only goes through 2024. Same with Perez, yeah this is huge money by Marlins standards but not by the rest of the league’s standards.

[lou]

The Braves, Giants, Phillies and Reds have won 27 games in a row.

Yea but the Braves and Reds don't matter there.

You have to imagine the Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and maybe Mets are fighting for 3 spots. And I think the hope is the NL West beats up on each other eventually (especially Giants) and the Mets do just circle into the toilet the rest of this year..... until he signs Ohtani, Nola, Chapman, and Urias next year for $1 billion dollars.

[fish16]

I don’t necessarily agree. Goldschmidt makes a ton of money and is old, but he’s still worth that money and his contract only goes through 2024. Same with Perez, yeah this is huge money by Marlins standards but not by the rest of the league’s standards.

Just to clarify, when i say huge money, i mean not only salary wise, but years wise. Goldschmidt to me would be the perfect addition because he is only under contract through next year. That's not problematic to me. I just get scared off by guys under contract longer than next year like Perez because of our track record for guys to come here and fall off a cliff. I doubt they make him available and if we even have the minor league pieces to make a deal work if he were available, but goldschmidt being added to this lineup along with maybe Knizner and Gallegos or Stratton as a bullpen arm could not be a more perfect addition for what this team needs. Righty bat which we need, great glove, perfect middle of the order guy. But again, i just dont think we have the system right now to find a deal that the cardinals would accept for him. And you just cant subtract from the major league roster right now. Which is a shame because given how much we have invested in the draft and IFA it is completely fucking pathetic that we dont have the minor league system to be able to get him.

Kim has done a great job i think, but it is a complete joke that the #6 pick less than a year ago isnt even a top 10 player in a bad system right now. Do you know how hard it is to take a guy in the top 10 of an entire draft and not have him even be in the top 10 of your system less than a year later? The complete whiffs we continue to have in the draft are inexcusable and need to change if this is going to be sustainable.

Just look at the list of guys we have taken in the top 3 rounds in recent years other than 2020 where they did a good job with Meyer, Fulton, McCambley, and Eder- Berry, Miller (good results so far), Millbrandt, Watson, Mack, Morrisette, McCants, Bleday, Misner, Burdick, Connor Scott, Osiris Johnson, Banfield, Pompey,

Luckily they have been able to move on quickly and trade guys for useful pieces before the value completely craters, but you cannot continue to draft this poorly. The 2020 class is the only class that looks remotely promising, and every single promising guy from that class has had or needs elbow surgery. Just not sustainable.

[Nick]

What do we think about keeping Jonathan Davis on the team when Jazz comes back? He's the only OF we've had this year where I feel completely comfortable with defensively, not sure if the analytics back that up, and he has been surprisingly passable with the bat. Not sure if he can continue that though.

[fish16]

What do we think about keeping Jonathan Davis on the team when Jazz comes back? He's the only OF we've had this year where I feel completely comfortable with defensively, not sure if the analytics back that up, and he has been surprisingly passable with the bat. Not sure if he can continue that though.

fuck that. He's terrible. For his career he is average defensively. His bat is unplayable. He had a great game his first game and has been predicatably terrible since. For his career he has a terrible 63 WRC+ and he k's 26% of the time.

By the time the deadline is over we need to find a way to improve 1b, backup C, 5th OF spot, and 1 more RP. if we arent going to add the one big piece we need in the lineup they desperately need to improve in the fringes. I'd like to see Cooper gone of moved to the bench, get rid of Hampson, Davis, Stallings, and improve that last bullpen spot with a righty set up man. It shouldnt cost a ton. Edwards can take one of those spots, backup C shouldnt be too expensive to get, and then go get something like Gallegos and a 4th OF who can play CF from a non-contender.

Getting a 3b who can play would also be great but i think they ride it out with Segura when he comes back because of the money owed next year.

If by July 31 you can add Edwards, Gallegos, Yan Gomes, and a 4th OF who can play CF and subtract Davis, Hampson, the current Brazoban spot, and Stallings, that's a hell of a deadline in my opinion that isnt splashy but really improves this team.

[Nick]

fuck that. He's terrible. For his career he is average defensively. His bat is unplayable. He had a great game his first game and has been predicatably terrible since. For his career he has a terrible 63 WRC+ and he k's 26% of the time.

By the time the deadline is over we need to find a way to improve 1b, backup C, 5th OF spot, and 1 more RP. if we arent going to add the one big piece we need in the lineup they desperately need to improve in the fringes. I'd like to see Cooper gone of moved to the bench, get rid of Hampson, Davis, Stallings, and improve that last bullpen spot with a righty set up man. It shouldnt cost a ton. Edwards can take one of those spots, backup C shouldnt be too expensive to get, and then go get something like Gallegos and a 4th OF who can play CF from a non-contender.

Getting a 3b who can play would also be great but i think they ride it out with Segura when he comes back because of the money owed next year.

My only thought is Sanchez/DLC are not great defensively. Soler is a DH. Jazz and Edwards would both be 2B playing CF, even though Jazz eventually will be very good, maybe he already is. Would be nice to have a defensive replacement/pinch runner.

[fish16]

My only thought is Sanchez/DLC are not great defensively. Soler is a DH. Jazz and Edwards would both be 2B playing CF, even though Jazz eventually will be very good, maybe he already is. Would be nice to have a defensive replacement/pinch runner.

Laureano would make sense. We clearly seem to have a good trading rapport with the same few teams (Rays, Cardinals, A's) and they have no need for him. He has fallen off a little defensively but he can still play CF and you gotta think his bat would get a boost going from that situation to a contender. He wouldnt cost much more than a lower level prospect. Only owed 3 million this year with 1 more year of arbitration next year that you could just decide to non-tender if he looks bad the rest of the year.

You get him, Edwards, Gomes, and Gallegos and you are looking at a roster that isnt spectacular but doesnt have the usual few albatrosses bringing up the rear.

C- Fortes/Gomes
1b- Arraez/Gurriel
2b- Edwards
SS- Amaya/Wendle
3b- Segura/Berti
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Soler
Bench- Backup C, Gurriel, Berti, Laureano, Amaya/Wendle

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, Garrett with Rogers/Cueto coming back at some point
Bullpen- Puk, Nardi, Okert, Scott, Floro, Gallegos, Barnes, Chargois

[Nick]

Laureano would make sense. We clearly seem to have a good trading rapport with the same few teams (Rays, Cardinals, A's) and they have no need for him. He has fallen off a little defensively but he can still play CF and you gotta think his bat would get a boost going from that situation to a contender. He wouldnt cost much more than a lower level prospect. Only owed 3 million this year with 1 more year of arbitration next year that you could just decide to non-tender if he looks bad the rest of the year.

You get him, Edwards, Gomes, and Gallegos and you are looking at a roster that isnt spectacular but doesnt have the usual few albatrosses bringing up the rear.

C- Fortes/Gomes
1b- Arraez/Gurriel
2b- Edwards
SS- Amaya/Wendle
3b- Segura/Berti
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Soler
Bench- Backup C, Gurriel, Berti, Laureano, Amaya/Wendle

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, Garrett with Rogers/Cueto coming back at some point
Bullpen- Puk, Nardi, Okert, Scott, Floro, Gallegos, Barnes, Chargois

Victor Robles makes sense.

[lou]

Another Stupid Fantasy Trade that fish16 will hate.

Marlins Get:
Goldschmidt
Gallegos
Knizner

Cards Get:
Eder
Meyer
Cappe
Watson
Monteverde
Avisail Garcia
Jean Segura

Those Cardinals guys make $38m combined (not including Knizer who is nominal and doesn't matter) over next 2 years and project at an 8 WAR if everything goes right. This is like a $35m surplus value. Ignoring everything else, this is definitely Eder/Meyer, Cappe/Watson/Berry/Any System bat (their eye of the beholder), a strong third guy like Fulton/Edwards/Monteverde/Mack/Amaya, another strong throw in, probably someone like R. Hernandez (C), Mesa Jr., or Nasim, and an OUT30 flyer.

Goldschmidt, Gallegos, Knizer
Eder, Cappe, Monteverde, R. Hernandez, OUT30



Garcia makes $35m and his surplus value is negative $25-30m (.5 WAR player projection, he sucks). So I think you are on the right track here adding in Meyer and Watson on top of this if we are looking to payroll dump also. I don't love it, but I do like it because if they could sign a 2/$30 guy in Free agency (or keep Soler), that is interesting versus just keeping Meyer and Watson. I think I'd keep the prospects though.

Segura has to be considered a negative of his salary now, so we're adding Berry/Vargas and Edwards on top of this to account for him, and it's just too many prospects at this point. So I think those two guys and two basically throw in guys are missing in this equation. So for your deal, I have to imagine 4 more guys. That's a lot to get those 3 guys and recoup around $35-40m.


Remember those prior posts where I think they have $30m to spend next year, so they "could" do that first permutation this year and then trade say Scott, Barnes, and Cooper now. That would net-off the money entirely. I imagine Scott would get them a very good Edwards/Amaya/Groshans level prospect, someone would just take Cooper for free and hope for a health rebound, and they might have to add a FV40 arm (Millbrandt?) to Barnes just to move money but that's fine. Barnes was pretty solid until his last appearance where he was presumably hurt. A fine 5th bullpen arm for a contender to use as their 6th or 7th, etc.

Goldschmidt, Gallegos, Knizer
Eder, Cappe, Monteverde, R. Hernandez, OUT30

Scott
FV45 or FV40+ and FV40

Cooper
OUT50

Barnes + Millbrandt
OUT50


That sets up this next year internally, with no money to spare unless Bruce spends more than 2023:

Fortes, Knizner (Banfield, McIntosh)
Goldschmidt
Arraez, Berti
Amaya (Nasim)
Segura, Groshans
DLC
Jazz, Edwards (Mesa Jr.)
Sanchez, Burdick

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Cueto
Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett (Fulton)
Gallegos, Meyer, Chargois (Maldonado, Hoeing, Bender, Soriano)
Puk, Okert, Nardi


If we imagine Jazz needs *many* DH days, Edwards/Sanchez are pretty OK in CF half the year, and Edwards also acts as the teams 5th 2B/SS/3B type (with Jazz 6th), this works. With the footnote that obviously there are two potential upgrade spots here (Groshans, Burdick) if Bruce will spend more. Looking at Groshans here who has options as I do think Burdick might be a sneaky pretty OK 4th OF even at current levels as a .725-.750 OPS vs LHP with OK defense plays enough. Garcia will just have to be DFA'd eventually.


So I like this for 2024 a lot. They have most of the pitching intact here. For 2023, they could churn out whoever (Davis, Hampson, Garcia, Yuli) as the roster gets healthy. Goldschmidt would be tremendous and Gallegos a real luxury. I'd even say take him out of the deal, keep some extra prospect value, and just keep Scott as he's cheaper and Scott looks really good.

[Nick]

Dane Myers is very very interesting. First instinct is dismiss him as a 27-year old beating up on AA/AAA, but considering he's only been a hitter since 2021, pitcher previously, and look at his numbers as hitter, there may be something there. He was a minor league Rule 5 pickup. Has to be put on the 40-man by the end of the year or he will be FA.