2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

We don't cherry pick statistics here. So nice try. Also don't you hate Zips? (You do)

I used zips because you constantly use it. Projections In baseball in general are stupid. But now that zips doesn’t confirm your opinion, you want to look for something that does. The other thing is your beloved fangraphs had our ss position as a ridiculous 3.7 war I believe

[lou]

I used zips because you constantly use it. Projections In baseball in general are stupid. But now that zips doesn’t confirm your opinion, you want to look for something that does. The other thing is your beloved fangraphs had our ss position as a ridiculous 3.7 war I believe

I use *all* the systems to aggregate a baseline so it eliminates any bias of 1 rating system having an outlier exception. You know, basic sample sizes here and why polls are aggregated for elections, etc. 2-27.

And they also had them 26th or 27th in the league in SS production and the Marlins don't have a longterm option, so maybe, just maybe, there is room for improvement there. Because understanding the landscape of all of baseball to understand what you have is important. 2-28.

[lou]

That’s fine, ya they need to address lhp at ss if berti isn’t enough. They did that. Iglesias is significantly better for his career against lefties than Andrus. Andrus is incredibly mediocre against lefties and bad against righties. You’re clamoring for a .720 ops against lefties. That’s not going to move any needle. Gurriel having a bounce back year does do that. Will he continue that? We will see, but that is more impactful for this team than Andrus providing a modest increase against lefties for the ss position over berti.

that’s all I’m saying. The gurriel move working out is much more impactful than the Andrus move working out.

Iglesisas is 30 OPS points better than Andrus against lefties, so yes we finally, finally, have a factual reference. But significantly better? That's not significantly better, and is out weighed by Andrus being a better overall player. Combined with a much better defender the last 5 years. Andrus is clearly better. 2-29 and counting. But the Marlins should probably be thinking about Iglesias over Hampson if Wendle is going to be out awhile.

That being said, being incredibly mediocre is an UPGRADE TO GARRET HAMPSON and extremely likely Gurriel as his hitting profile is extremely, extremely, poor. I've cited everything already. I can't keep repeating myself even if that is your modus operandi to gaslight and grandstand. If you want to buck trends and take a wild stab that Gurriel, at 39, is going to have a revival. I mean hey, go for it. But it's still a low probability event which has just always been the position by all real analytics. I don't know what you don't get here when you make sweeping declarations this is so smart after 20 AB. The numbers say getting a better defender who can hit lefties to redistribute their other defenders and keep Soler at DH would likely have a win impact on the season versus Gurriel. My position is, they should make smart decisions, which don't necessarily mean they work out. And here, they failed not getting a SS and I am very confident we are going to be much more upset about the SS situation short and longterm then a bench pinch hitter. But maybe everyone is wrong and you are right and Gurriel has an .800 OPS this year over meaningful PA over them getting a true Rojas replacement. You are really planting your flag on this low probability event versus the obviousness of - they need a SS.

[lou]

More importantly Ian Happ is getting a 3/$61m extension. He would be a free agent next year, so basically he's an expensive Josh Bell.

The Marlins really need to sign Arraez with comps like this coming out. Happ was really good last year (3.6 WAR) which was in Arraez general orbit. If they can price out Arraez free agency years around the same low $20m mark, they are easily looking at that 5/$75m extension number I floated before. Even better if they front load it. This seems really safe to me, as if he starts slugging and is about to take an Altuve XBH jump, that number becomes much scarier (6/$120m?) after this season. They'll be in full Bryan Reynolds territory then. They need to get ahead of this even more than Luzardo right now. Pay the guy.

[fish16]

Iglesisas is 30 OPS points better than Andrus against lefties, so yes we finally, finally, have a factual reference. But significantly better? That's not significantly better, and is out weighed by Andrus being a better overall player. Combined with a much better defender the last 5 years. Andrus is clearly better. 2-29 and counting. But the Marlins should probably be thinking about Iglesias over Hampson if Wendle is going to be out awhile.

That being said, being incredibly mediocre is an UPGRADE TO GARRET HAMPSON and extremely likely Gurriel as his hitting profile is extremely, extremely, poor. I've cited everything already. I can't keep repeating myself even if that is your modus operandi to gaslight and grandstand. If you want to buck trends and take a wild stab that Gurriel, at 39, is going to have a revival. I mean hey, go for it. But it's still a low probability event which has just always been the position by all real analytics. I don't know what you don't get here when you make sweeping declarations this is so smart after 20 AB. The numbers say getting a better defender who can hit lefties to redistribute their other defenders and keep Soler at DH would likely have a win impact on the season versus Gurriel. My position is, they should make smart decisions, which don't necessarily mean they work out. And here, they failed not getting a SS and I am very confident we are going to be much more upset about the SS situation short and longterm then a bench pinch hitter. But maybe everyone is wrong and you are right and Gurriel has an .800 OPS this year over meaningful PA over them getting a true Rojas replacement. You are really planting your flag on this low probability event versus the obviousness of - they need a SS.

if .30 points is not a significant upgrade, then why is .40 points higher than berti's career OPS against lefties such a huge upgrade when it comes to andrus? Berti is a .680 career OPS against lefties, last year it was .690. So andrus is a significant upgrade for us against lefties at the SS position, but iglesias being 30 points higher than andrus is not significant now? andrus value is in his defense, not his offense, regardless of what side the pitcher is throwing from. Our SS defense is fine, it's the offense that sucks. Andrus doesnt help address that in any significant way. He's not a significant upgrade over berti to justify not taking the chance on gurriel bouncing back and making an actual impact on the thing we need upgraded most- our offense.

Now gurriel hitting and allowing a big bat to take a corner OF spot from Sanchez/DLC against lefties and Garcia against righties? Ya, that's an actual significant upgrade.

[fish16]

I use *all* the systems to aggregate a baseline so it eliminates any bias of 1 rating system having an outlier exception. You know, basic sample sizes here and why polls are aggregated for elections, etc. 2-27.

And they also had them 26th or 27th in the league in SS production and the Marlins don't have a longterm option, so maybe, just maybe, there is room for improvement there. Because understanding the landscape of all of baseball to understand what you have is important. 2-28.

and maybe, just maybe, you can actually read and understand that at no point have i said there is no room for improvement. the entire argument is that gurriel bouncing back and allowing us to shift some of the better bats in our lineup to positions in our lineup that have been dreadful for over a year now has a higher impact than adding a defensive first SS who barely improves our SS hitting against lefties. You even did the math last year that berti's speed should be taken into consideration when judging his overall OPS. Now because that doesnt suit your argument, we forget all about that. Interesting how that works with you. Andrus isnt really a guy who is going to steal you 30-40 bags like he did in his peak years.. Berti is.

[fish16]

tyler o'neill hit one 461 feet off old friend jose urena in colorado

[fish16]

great job by cabrera to get out of the first with no damage after 2 singles. looked like he started to get some confidence there.

[fish16]

jesus sanchez swings so fucking hard its absurd.

[lou]

if .30 points is not a significant upgrade, then why is .40 points higher than berti's career OPS against lefties such a huge upgrade when it comes to andrus? Berti is a .680 career OPS against lefties, last year it was .690. So andrus is a significant upgrade for us against lefties at the SS position, but iglesias being 30 points higher than andrus is not significant now? andrus value is in his defense, not his offense, regardless of what side the pitcher is throwing from. Our SS defense is fine, it's the offense that sucks. Andrus doesnt help address that in any significant way. He's not a significant upgrade over berti to justify not taking the chance on gurriel bouncing back and making an actual impact on the thing we need upgraded most- our offense.

Now gurriel hitting and allowing a big bat to take a corner OF spot from Sanchez/DLC against lefties and Garcia against righties? Ya, that's an actual significant upgrade.

Very solid position regarding Wendle, 3-30. Got one back! However still being a little generous there as Wendle has skewed to a .600 OPS vs lefties lately (2021 and 202), but maybe that is a SSS itself and he is closer to his career rate. That is plausible. Berti is a defensive issue, I do not think the SS defensive ratings will be good (and aren't so far) and if you want a prediction, only Cooper (1B) and Jazz (CF) will have worse defensive ratings than Berti at SS (He will of course be find at 2B/3B) among all the major players. That includes the punching bag defensive catcher, Garcia, and Sanchez/DLC not in CF. I don't see it but maybe I am wrong there too. Hope I am! Andrus - any really any kind of solid SS - would help this team a lot. A lot. It wouldn't just upgrade the position, it makes Segura, Arraez, and Cooper better knowing they have a better defender at SS. I'm not sure who said it, maybe Nick, but there was a comment that we are really going to appreciate Rojas at some point this year and I fully agree.

Any bat hitting a .775+ OPS will be helpful so again, the bold prediction he will be good is written in stone in blood by you here despite all the analytics saying otherwise. You will get the hat tip if 2022 was a 38 year old mirage and 39 year old Yuli found the fountain of youth in Little Havana.

[Nick]

Hopefully that 1st innings was a turning point for Cabrera.

[lou]

You know what also sucks - Stott, Bohm, and Marsh are all looking good to me. These guys are going to be a problem for awhile with Harper, Turner, Realmuto, and they can cycle power bats around them. They have massive SP coming in the minors.

Sell baby sell.

[fish16]

cabrera always throws gas, but he looks like he's throwing even harder today. and his command couldnt be any worse than it was, but he looks much much better today so far. good sign.

[lou]

cabrera always throws gas, but he looks like he's throwing even harder today. and his command couldnt be any worse than it was, but he looks much much better today so far. good sign.

I think we all agree he should be combined as a SP with Garrett when Cueto is back and Cabrera can focus on just lighting people up for 4+ innings and not worry about the pitch counts and being efficient. Just throw your heart out and Garret will handle more innings in a solid combo.

[fish16]

I think we all agree he should be combined as a SP with Garrett when Cueto is back and Cabrera can focus on just lighting people up for 4+ innings and not worry about the pitch counts and being efficient. Just throw your heart out and Garret will handle more innings in a solid combo.

my only issue with that is whether garrett is comfortable out of the bullpen. He has started his entire life, to ask him to come out of the bullpen might not be met with great results. I wanted them to do the same thing with elieser, but he always looked so fucking uncomfortable out of the bullpen. Maybe garrett can do it, but it wont be for a while anyways. Mish and Jackson's latest article says cueto isnt due back in the next few weeks.