2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

fangraphs has luzardo at .6 WAR already. And looking at the peripherals, obviously his era wont stay this low, but he doesnt appear to be getting significantly lucky. His BABIP is .304. He's throwing a full MPH higher than last year, and producing more ground balls (career high rate). He's leaving a ridiculously high amount of guys on base at 87%, but not a ton of guys are even getting on base.

[lou]

andrus wasnt good the whole season. He hit .237, just above .300 OBP for the a's, with a sub .375 slugging percentage. There is a reason they got rid of him for nothing. He had a great month for the white sox to end the year. He was bad for the 4 years prior to that one month. His OPS+ for 2018-2021 was 78, 78. 60, 73.

And this whole idea that andrus is some lefty masher is just not based in any sense of reality. He is a career .723 OPS against lefties. He is a slap hitting, defensive first SS. He would have given us what rojas gave us last year, which didnt move the needle whatsoever. That's not what this team needed. Gurriel is a career .807 OPS against lefties, and he's good against righties too. Berti can take care of that SS role, as i was saying at the time. The team needed a potential run producing hitter. Sure, andrus would have improved the defense, but the defense is not even close to the biggest team need, plus wendle and Berti are quality defenders. they needed, and still need, run producing hitters.

Absolutely, gurriel had an awful year last year, but he had a great playoff run and provided to the astros exactly what we needed- contact, low k guys, who can drive in runs. He also has a not too recent history of having a huge year off of a down year. sure he's older, but he is sure as hell worth the risk of wasting money over andrus, who would have made this offense even more dreadful to watch. He's a career 86 OPS+, and that's including his peak years. He's been terrible for years, see his 2018-2021 OPS+ above.

If you have to make the outfield defense slightly worse, who gives a fuck, they need to score runs. It's not like Avisail garcia is a positive defensively either. If gurriel can give us gaby sanchez level production, that beats anything that Andrus ever would have provided to us. It's as simple as having Gurriel, Soler, Cooper, and DLC in a lineup as opposed to having Andrus, Garcia, Soler, and Cooper. The former is the clear better option for a team desperately searching for players who can drive in runs.

Also, you bring up gurriel's BABIP this year and dont even acknowledge what it was last year- it was .266. He isnt what he was last year, and he definitely isnt what he was the year before. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, and that is a much more important piece for us this year than anything andrus would have brought to the table.

Andrus has played as a 2+ WAR player per 600 PA the last 4 years, in over a 1800+ PA sample size. So yea, your story doesn't check out.

Who said lefty masher, a playable hitter against lefties with positive defense would be a huge step forward for this team. They have HAMPSON on the roster right now. This team literally needs, at minimum, a "Rojas" who can play SS and hit lefties. Amaya makes sense because take a bet on a longterm term asset, but they still need that player. Berti hasn't graded great at SS so far, but it's a small sample size so we'll see. They did not fill this need. So yea, your story doesn't check out.

If you normalized Gurriel's BABIP last year he would have hit .270 with no power because he was making pathetic contact. So no, no one is ignoring that. An empty .270/.325/.375 1B/DH only guy wouldn't be helpful. Just look. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. If Gurriel hits his career rate (.775+ OPS) this year, I will be surprised. So yea, again your story doesn't check out. We will all tip our hat to the FO and you if he does that in another 100 PA. Don't you worry. But this is a bad bet.

Garcia is also a pretty solid defender (historically anyways) and still has a good sprint speed as he's a plus athlete. He's fine. But yes if he is going to hit .150/.200/.300, of course you will bat nearly anyone over him.

So this one is basically an 0-4 so you're batting a Garciaesque 2-15 (.133) with these last few posts, with the hits being they should throw Puk more (a duh) and a second generous hit effectively arguing Arraez is going to start slugging even more and maybe you are right as that one isn't easily debunked like this other dumb stuff.

[lou]

fangraphs has luzardo at .6 WAR already. And looking at the peripherals, obviously his era wont stay this low, but he doesnt appear to be getting significantly lucky. His BABIP is .304. He's throwing a full MPH higher than last year, and producing more ground balls (career high rate). He's leaving a ridiculously high amount of guys on base at 87%, but not a ton of guys are even getting on base.

Just take it further to really drive it home on Todd as this is where you can take the victory lap you are looking for:

Since August 29, 2021 when he had that first rebound start:

28 GS, 154 IP, 3.39 ERA (3.30 FIP), 10.4 K/9, 3.3 WAR, 42nd overall WAR among all SP this period (Sandy is 3rd as a sidenote)

And only Kershaw and J. Springs have less innings in front of him, so effectively, Luzardo is even better than that 42nd ranking.

He is very good.

[fish16]

Andrus has played as a 2+ WAR player per 600 PA the last 4 years, in over a 1800+ PA sample size. So yea, your story doesn't check out.

Who said lefty masher, a playable hitter against lefties with positive defense would be a huge step forward for this team. They have HAMPSON on the roster right now. This team literally needs, at minimum, a "Rojas" who can play SS and hit lefties. Amaya makes sense because take a bet on a longterm term asset, but they still need that player. Berti hasn't graded great at SS so far, but it's a small sample size so we'll see. They did not fill this need. So yea, your story doesn't check out.

If you normalized Gurriel's BABIP last year he would have hit .270 with no power because he was making pathetic contact. So no, no one is ignoring that. An empty .270/.325/.375 1B/DH only guy wouldn't be helpful. Just look. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. If Gurriel hits his career rate (.775+ OPS) this year, I will be surprised. So yea, again your story doesn't check out. We will all tip our hat to the FO and you if he does that in another 100 PA. Don't you worry. But this is a bad bet.

Garcia is also a pretty solid defender (historically anyways) and still has a good sprint speed as he's a plus athlete. He's fine. But yes if he is going to hit .150/.200/.300, of course you will bat nearly anyone over him.

So this one is basically an 0-4 so you're batting a Garciaesque 2-15 (.133) with these last few posts, with the hits being they should throw Puk more (a duh) and a second generous hit effectively arguing Arraez is going to start slugging even more and maybe you are right as that one isn't easily debunked like this other dumb stuff.

again with the defensively driven war. also, 2 WAR pace over 600 ab's is not all that impressive. He hasnt gotten 600 ab's because he cant hit. this team doesnt need a top notch defender at SS who cant hit their way out of a wet paper bag, they need run producers. He would be a great addition if we had terrible defensive SS's who also cant hit. we dont. He provides nothing offensively. He has been a terrible hitter for going on 5 years. He has been a well below league average hitter for years. Just because they didnt upgrade SS doesnt mean Andrus would have been some huge addition. He would provide steady SS defense and that't about it. He hasnt been a quality hitter for years. Berti and wendle can hold down SS just fine without Andrus. It doesnt mean they dont need a major upgrade at SS, but andrus doesnt really provide anything this team needed. Berti is a playable hitter against lefties. He's fine. Andrus isnt a significant upgrade there. If anything, they signed the actual guy who would have brought that exact skill set but better in iglesias, and he cant even make the team. He is a career .759 OPS against lefties, significantly better than andrus. They are doing just fine without iglesias.

Yes, gurriel had a bad year. The idea is that a bounce back for him is significantly more impactful than what andrus brings, specifically for this team desperate for run producing middle of the order hitters. He bounced back once in 2021, he might bounce back again this year. That's all it is. It's a bet on him bouncing back, and if he does, it's significantly more important to what this team needs than anything andrus would bring at this point in his career. And again, when it mattered most last year, gurriel was great in the playoffs. hit .347, struck out 1 time in 50 ab's. and put up an .850 OPS on a world series run. I have never said im guaranteeing he bounces back, all im saying is that id much rather take a shot on him bouncing back than andrus being him and providing nothing offensively like he has for 5 straight years outside of 1 month with the white sox last year. Plus, gurriel is not a platoon guy if he bounces back. He has been really good against lefties and playable against righties for his career. Gives you even more flexibility with the 1b/DH/corner outfield maneuvering.

Garcia has never been a "pretty solid defender". He has graded negatively defensively every single year of his career outside of 2021 and 2020, where had had barely positive grades according to fangraphs. Losing garcia as a defender is absolutely a nothing loss. If it comes with a significant increase in offensive production from his spot in the lineup, it's a trade off you make 100% of the time.

[fish16]

just for shits and giggles since you love projections, here is what Zips has for gurriel this year: .280/.331/.419, 113 WRC+, absurdly low 11.8% K Rate, 1.6 WAR, all offensively driven.

[rmc523]

How about we all agree that they should've signed better players and leave it at that.

The back and forth "so and so is bad, no they're not", "you said this, you said that" about the same guys endlessly is annoying.

[lou]

again with the defensively driven war. also, 2 WAR pace over 600 ab's is not all that impressive. He hasnt gotten 600 ab's because he cant hit. this team doesnt need a top notch defender at SS who cant hit their way out of a wet paper bag, they need run producers. He would be a great addition if we had terrible defensive SS's who also cant hit. we dont. He provides nothing offensively. He has been a terrible hitter for going on 5 years. He has been a well below league average hitter for years. Just because they didnt upgrade SS doesnt mean Andrus would have been some huge addition. He would provide steady SS defense and that't about it. He hasnt been a quality hitter for years. Berti and wendle can hold down SS just fine without Andrus. It doesnt mean they dont need a major upgrade at SS, but andrus doesnt really provide anything this team needed. Berti is a playable hitter against lefties. He's fine. Andrus isnt a significant upgrade there. If anything, they signed the actual guy who would have brought that exact skill set but better in iglesias, and he cant even make the team. He is a career .759 OPS against lefties, significantly better than andrus. They are doing just fine without iglesias.

Yes, gurriel had a bad year. The idea is that a bounce back for him is significantly more impactful than what andrus brings, specifically for this team desperate for run producing middle of the order hitters. He bounced back once in 2021, he might bounce back again this year. That's all it is. It's a bet on him bouncing back, and if he does, it's significantly more important to what this team needs than anything andrus would bring at this point in his career. And again, when it mattered most last year, gurriel was great in the playoffs. hit .347, struck out 1 time in 50 ab's. and put up an .850 OPS on a world series run. I have never said im guaranteeing he bounces back, all im saying is that id much rather take a shot on him bouncing back than andrus being him and providing nothing offensively like he has for 5 straight years outside of 1 month with the white sox last year. Plus, gurriel is not a platoon guy if he bounces back. He has been really good against lefties and playable against righties for his career. Gives you even more flexibility with the 1b/DH/corner outfield maneuvering.

Garcia has never been a "pretty solid defender". He has graded negatively defensively every single year of his career outside of 2021 and 2020, where had had barely positive grades according to fangraphs. Losing garcia as a defender is absolutely a nothing loss. If it comes with a significant increase in offensive production from his spot in the lineup, it's a trade off you make 100% of the time.

Defense counts. 2-16.

A 2+ WAR player is a fine player. 2-17.

This team needs any sort of production upgrade at 2 spots, with SS the most likely. 2-18.

You talked shit about Wendle the whole offseason, but he's fine now as he fits your narrative about Yuli being good. 2-19.

Garcia 70th-87th percentile outs above average for 4 seasons, and Fangraphs thinks 2 of the last 6 seasons above average, 2 relatively neutral, and laid eggs in 2019/2022. So yea, pretty solid defender. 2-20.

[lou]

just for shits and giggles since you love projections, here is what Zips has for gurriel this year: .280/.331/.419, 113 WRC+, absurdly low 11.8% K Rate, 1.6 WAR, all offensively driven.

Andrus has higher projections. 2-21.

[lou]

How about we all agree that they should've signed better players and leave it at that.

The back and forth "so and so is bad, no they're not", "you said this, you said that" about the same guys endlessly is annoying.

I could not agree more. I hope one day it stops.

[rmc523]

Some of the guys that started off badly will likely get better, and vice versa.

I do think that it'll all even out and result in an overall record around .500, and we'll swing between feeling the season is over after bad games, and thinking "hey it's working" after good games.

[fish16]

Defense counts. 2-16.

A 2+ WAR player is a fine player. 2-17.

This team needs any sort of production upgrade at 2 spots, with SS the most likely. 2-18.

You talked shit about Wendle the whole offseason, but he's fine now as he fits your narrative about Yuli being good. 2-19.

Garcia 70th-87th percentile outs above average for 4 seasons, and Fangraphs thinks 2 of the last 6 seasons above average, 2 relatively neutral, and laid eggs in 2019/2022. So yea, pretty solid defender. 2-20.

Defensive war is notoriously unreliable and not weighted well. What do you think was more impactful towards their teams winning- Juan soto's 3.8 WAR last year or Andrelton's simmons 3.5 WAR in 2013 all based on his defense while hitting .248/.296/.396 with a 91 WRC+ in almost the exact same amount of at bats. The difference between the production of a great hitter vs an average hitter is bigger than the difference between the production of a great defender and an average defender.

This team does need a production upgrade, Andrus doesnt provide that. He is not a significant upgrade over what wendle has been defensively at SS.

Ya, wendle is not a major league starter. The fact that i think he is passable if the other option is Andrus instead of betting on a gurriel bounceback should tell you how bad andrus has hit for 5 years. The difference between andrus and the combo of Berti/Wendle is not much, if it's better at all.

Fangraphs thinks 2 of garcia's last 4 seasons have been well below average. 2 were barely above average. Your argument is that there is a significant defensive loss going from Garcia to Soler and Cooper because Garcia has historically been a good defender. It's not, and he's not. Garcia is not a significant defender in any way, and has been well below average for 2 of the last 4 years.

[fish16]

Andrus has higher projections. 2-21.

no, he doesnt. Zips has him at .9 WAR and an 80 WRC+ the rest of the season, all defensively driven, with a .233/.284/.352 slash line. They had gurriel at 1.6 WAR, all offensively driven. One helps our major problem. the other doesnt provide much of an upgrade from what we have currently defensively with berti and wendle, who are fine defensively. Again, they need an upgrade at SS, andrus isnt a significant one, if he is one at all.

[lou]

Some of the guys that started off badly will likely get better, and vice versa.

I do think that it'll all even out and result in an overall record around .500, and we'll swing between feeling the season is over after bad games, and thinking "hey it's working" after good games.

Namaste has been all over this from his comments, but the opening schedule is pretty brutal until the last few days of April. If you scan end of April to end of June, they have a 2 month stretch of this.

Cubs
Braves
Cubs
D Backs
Reds
Nationals
Giants (west coast trip)
Colorado
Angels
Padres
As
KC
White Sox
Seattle
Nationals
Blue Jays
Pirates

Obviously some good teams in there, but you can't get much better than that. If they can survive April, they may be able to get to July in pretty good shape.

It gets ugly fast from there to note - Bos, Atl, Stl, and Phi before the ASB, and then a few weak ones and then a whole lot more of STL, TB, Phi, NYY, Hou, LAD and SD on another west coast back to back, another TB, more Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Braves, Mets, Brewers, and more Mets to end.

Frankly mid-August to the end of the season is going to kill them as that is a tough 6 week stretch, so they'll have to bet they get deadline reenforcements if this is going to work. We'll see, but surviving April sets them up to July. So far, I'd say they are surviving but that run differential is scary.

[lou]

Defensive war is notoriously unreliable and not weighted well. What do you think was more impactful towards their teams winning- Juan soto's 3.8 WAR last year or Andrelton's simmons 3.5 WAR in 2013 all based on his defense while hitting .248/.296/.396 with a 91 WRC+ in almost the exact same amount of at bats. The difference between the production of a great hitter vs an average hitter is bigger than the difference between the production of a great defender and an average defender.

This team does need a production upgrade, Andrus doesnt provide that. He is not a significant upgrade over what wendle has been defensively at SS.

Ya, wendle is not a major league starter. The fact that i think he is passable if the other option is Andrus instead of betting on a gurriel bounceback should tell you how bad andrus has hit for 5 years. The difference between andrus and the combo of Berti/Wendle is not much, if it's better at all.

Fangraphs thinks 2 of garcia's last 4 seasons have been well below average. 2 were barely above average. Your argument is that there is a significant defensive loss going from Garcia to Soler and Cooper because Garcia has historically been a good defender. It's not, and he's not. Garcia is not a significant defender in any way, and has been well below average for 2 of the last 4 years.

Defense counts, I won't knock you twice for the same poor comment. Defense. Counts.

It's impossible to reconcile Wendle/Berti are fine, and then saying he's not a MLB starter. Because he is a starter here. 2-22.

But I do have to knock you again for citing statistics wrong for Garcia. He's a fine defender. Look at statcast and Fangraphs. I provided you the information. 2-23.

[lou]

no, he doesnt. Zips has him at .9 WAR and an 80 WRC+ the rest of the season, all defensively driven, with a .233/.284/.352 slash line. They had gurriel at 1.6 WAR, all offensively driven. One helps our major problem. the other doesnt provide much of an upgrade from what we have currently defensively with berti and wendle, who are fine defensively. Again, they need an upgrade at SS, andrus isnt a significant one, if he is one at all.

Andrus projections ROS - .9 , 1.8, 1.4, 2.1, 1.7. Weighted average 1.56 WAR

Gurriel projections ROS - 1.6, .3, .6, .2, .2. Weight average .58 WAR.

Andrus does have significantly more PA the last 4 though, so we can double Gurriel to help you out here.

Gurriel projections ROS doubling his PA for the 4 low projections - 1.6, .6, 1.2, .4, .4. Weight average .84 WAR. <--- This is more fair and is a lower number than 1.56 by a lot. Andrus is an upgrade. As stated, if Yuli has an .800 OPS this year, close the streets and you can have your parade. But the stats don't backup your gut feeling here.

2-24.