2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

Sounds like a whole lot of hyperventilating was done the last few days for nothing.

I’m glad the Marlins didn’t cave. Fuck these other teams.

[lou]

Nimmo, Gimenez, Vientos, and Nido doesn't sound like a great return for Realmuto. If this is the return I don't understand coming down from asking for Rosario and Peterson to Gimenez and Vientos without getting another prospect. Also why do we have to take back a scrub catcher? Is it just to have an additional backup? Since that is all Nido would be. Everyone is saying that if Nimmo is the guy they will flip him to another team for prospects but I think most likely they will just keep him.

Nimmo is projected with have a 2.5 WAR next year, with terrible defense. If you look at the fielding numbers, he's neutral in LF. He was miscast in CF. Basically, upside. That's him hitting basically .240/.350/.400. He has an elite walk rate so it seems like he is a high-floor as if nothing else, he will get on base. His upside is obvious, he hit .263 last year, with an even better walk rate, and even better slugging. Can't discount his 4.4 WAR, even if he isn't probable not to do it again. If any one of those three things holds up, you're doing great.

He's basically the LF Brian Anderson.

A 2.5 WAR projection over Nimmo's age 26-30 age seasons, minus say "good" arbitration numbers, can get you to a $75 million surplus value really quickly if you view him positively. Even call him a 2 WAR player, with an accordingly decrease in arbitration numbers, you're still $50-60 easy.

He may not be sexy like the Braves names, or Tucker, but there is something to be said about a safe everyday starter somewhere on the field. Likewise, Nimmo had a 4.4 WAR last year and maybe it was indeed a breakout and he's going to keep the average, or the 15% BB rate, or the slugging. He does have 1st round pedigree. People have believed in this kid for at least a decade at this point.

I don't see this deal as a negative at all. They just have to value him like this, and not the 4+ WAR guy.

As for Gimenez, he's a pretty solid rock solid FV55 prospect, and Fangraphs range on that is around $40-45 million in value.

Vientos and Nido aren't worth much, they are lottery tickets. Nido is definitely a throw in as the currently have 3 MLB catchers (D'Arnaud, Plawecki, Nido), and Plawecki seems like the obvious backup to Realmuto.

No matter how you view this, these guys get to a $100 million surplus value evaluation for purposes of roundballing a trade.

Realmuto, as a 4.5 WAR player, signed for 5 years and $80 million (I am giving him the best valuation possible with a team extending on the deal he should get. I also think it's fair for the Marlins to ask for this as an acquiring team can do this), he's worth $100 million easy.

It generally lines up.

This then becomes solely an eyes of the beholder situation in that, you believe Nimmo is a solid Brian Anderson type for LF, and one of the other guys becomes at least a 1.5+ WAR guy over their club controlled years. Personally, I'll take that bet with these guys. It's 11 years of Gimenez and Nimmo. Nimmo has high-floor traits with the BB rate, and Gimenez seemingly has a high-floor with the glove. Reasonable upside for everyone all around.

I think Rosario + any of the good names would be an epic win as Rosario has always been the best prospect of the bunch. I'm not getting bummed with the Marlins holding out for the best deal, and then just taking a good one.

They don't have to win big in every trade with total destruction of another team. An Adrian Gonzalez/Ugeth Urbina trade would certainly help right now, but this isn't bad.

There could be better, but this is not objectively bad by any stretch if it's those 4 Mets dudes.

I also think you keep Nimmo in LF if you get him and reassess after 2019 once you see what Brinson, Monte, and VVM do.

Conforto I'd trade with the lesser years of control.

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Sounds like a whole lot of hyperventilating was done the last few days for nothing.

I’m glad the Marlins didn’t cave. Fuck these other teams.

The argument of them being cheap in trades is over with this one. They are truly trying and playing hardball with them. I appreciate it.

I still think we're all going to be happy with this when it inevitably happens.

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And his walk rate is awful too. The toughest thing about watching the Marlins is the parade of joggers down to first base. Ferrel doesn't figure to stem that flow.

Barraclough walks everyone and is pretty good. You never know with an elite K rate.

[Lee Stone]

Nimmo is projected with have a 2.5 WAR next year, with terrible defense. If you look at the fielding numbers, he's neutral in LF. He was miscast in CF. Basically, upside. That's him hitting basically .240/.350/.400. He has an elite walk rate so it seems like he is a high-floor as if nothing else, he will get on base. His upside is obvious, he hit .263 last year, with an even better walk rate, and even better slugging. Can't discount his 4.4 WAR, even if he isn't probable not to do it again. If any one of those three things holds up, you're doing great.

He's basically the LF Brian Anderson.

A 2.5 WAR projection over Nimmo's age 26-30 age seasons, minus say "good" arbitration numbers, can get you to a $75 million surplus value really quickly if you view him positively. Even call him a 2 WAR player, with an accordingly decrease in arbitration numbers, you're still $50-60 easy.

He may not be sexy like the Braves names, or Tucker, but there is something to be said about a safe everyday starter somewhere on the field. Likewise, Nimmo had a 4.4 WAR last year and maybe it was indeed a breakout and he's going to keep the average, or the 15% BB rate, or the slugging. He does have 1st round pedigree. People have believed in this kid for at least a decade at this point.

I don't see this deal as a negative at all. They just have to value him like this, and not the 4+ WAR guy.

As for Gimenez, he's a pretty solid rock solid FV55 prospect, and Fangraphs range on that is around $40-45 million in value.

Vientos and Nido aren't worth much, they are lottery tickets. Nido is definitely a throw in as the currently have 3 MLB catchers (D'Arnaud, Plawecki, Nido), and Plawecki seems like the obvious backup to Realmuto.

No matter how you view this, these guys get to a $100 million surplus value evaluation for purposes of roundballing a trade.

Realmuto, as a 4.5 WAR player, signed for 5 years and $80 million (I am giving him the best valuation possible with a team extending on the deal he should get. I also think it's fair for the Marlins to ask for this as an acquiring team can do this), he's worth $100 million easy.

It generally lines up.

This then becomes solely an eyes of the beholder situation in that, you believe Nimmo is a solid Brian Anderson type for LF, and one of the other guys becomes at least a 1.5+ WAR guy over their club controlled years. Personally, I'll take that bet with these guys. It's 11 years of Gimenez and Nimmo. Nimmo has high-floor traits with the BB rate, and Gimenez seemingly has a high-floor with the glove. Reasonable upside for everyone all around.

I think Rosario + any of the good names would be an epic win as Rosario has always been the best prospect of the bunch. I'm not getting bummed with the Marlins holding out for the best deal, and then just taking a good one.

They don't have to win big in every trade with total destruction of another team. An Adrian Gonzalez/Ugeth Urbina trade would certainly help right now, but this isn't bad.

There could be better, but this is not objectively bad by any stretch if it's those 4 Mets dudes.

I also think you keep Nimmo in LF if you get him and reassess after 2019 once you see what Brinson, Monte, and VVM do.

Conforto I'd trade with the lesser years of control.

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The argument of them being cheap in trades is over with this one. They are truly trying and playing hardball with them. I appreciate it.

I still think we're all going to be happy with this when it inevitably happens.

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Barraclough walks everyone and is pretty good. You never know with an elite K rate.

Of course we are only speculating about a trade package - nothing has been announced - but a few points. Nimmo not only got on base at a 40% clip in 2018, he did the same in a limited sample in 2017. Given that his game is built on approach and discipline, I think it's fair to assume his performance will hold up. Maybe not a 4+WAR, but in the neighborhood. I think both the Indians and Braves covet a cheap and productive OF and would offer multiple contributors for him. If not, he would become a great leadoff hitter for Miami. If we presume that Mauricio is the third piece of the deal, it gets really exciting. At only 17, he has tons of potential similar to Rosario.

[lou]

Of course we are only speculating about a trade package - nothing has been announced - but a few points. Nimmo not only got on base at a 40% clip in 2018, he did the same in a limited sample in 2017. Given that his game is built on approach and discipline, I think it's fair to assume his performance will hold up. Maybe not a 4+WAR, but in the neighborhood. I think both the Indians and Braves covet a cheap and productive OF and would offer multiple contributors for him. If not, he would become a great leadoff hitter for Miami. If we presume that Mauricio is the third piece of the deal, it gets really exciting. At only 17, he has tons of potential similar to Rosario.

A lot of teams would like him. Including the Marlins.

I'm pretty sure if the Marlins were to give up Brian Anderson, Victor Victor Mesa, Osiris Johnson, and a throw in or two outside top 15-20 for 2 (maybe 5) years of Realmuto, there would be some pause and debate as to whether that is too much.

That may lack superstar upside and I totally buy the argument to get a star potential player (which is ideal), but there is something to be said about getting a good package for a player you simply have to trade.

I'm hoping for Atlanta/San Diego/Los Angeles to beat the Mets deal, but that Mets deal just isn't objectively bad. I don't get it, but someone can convince me that Nimmo is less than half of his last year if I am missing something.

[Lee Stone]

A lot of teams would like him. Including the Marlins.

I'm pretty sure if the Marlins were to give up Brian Anderson, Victor Victor Mesa, Osiris Johnson, and a throw in or two outside top 15-20 for 2 (maybe 5) years of Realmuto, there would be some pause and debate as to whether that is too much.

That may lack superstar upside and I totally buy the argument to get a star potential player (which is ideal), but there is something to be said about getting a good package for a player you simply have to trade.

I'm hoping for Atlanta/San Diego/Los Angeles to beat the Mets deal, but that Mets deal just isn't objectively bad. I don't get it, but someone can convince me that Nimmo is less than half of his last year if I am missing something.

Good perspective. From the Mets POV, keeping the assets and signing Grandal would seem to be the way to go. However, Grandal might be looking for a 4/75 type of deal that scares them off. They might feel better about 3/50 for Pollock or Brantley. They also might feel less enthusiastic about Nimmo than I am. As to Giminez/Mauricio/etc., Mets may see them as blocked by Rosario/Cano for next few years. In any case, the new Mets management is trying to put the best possible team on the field right now and that's commendable. In support of Nimmo, he had a higher OPS this season than Yelich ever achieved as a Marlin.

Today's Mish update puts the Yankees in serious play for JT with Atlanta now the favorite. Unless the Mets are not actually offering Nimmo and Giminez, I can't see how an offer of Austin Riley and a pitcher would garner much attention from the Marlins.

Watching the Keuchel free agency. It's so much like the Chen situation when Miami signed him. Similar pitchers with very similar performance the last two years before free agency. Same age basically. Keuchel could turn out to be really bad deal for a team that gives him 4-5 years.

[tjfla]

Miami is hoping to get something done this week. With who is anyone's guess?

They are still talking with NYM/NYY/Cincy/SD/TB/Milwaukee and despite what u hear-Atlanta.

Cincy/Milwaukee/TB are longshots and Atlanta is in with a very solid offer like Mish said BUT like Bowman said they really aren't talking with us. Atlanta sent Miami the offer and moved onto OF/SP-they told us we can take the offer or not but they are done "talking"

NYM has Nimmo/Gimenez and more
NYY has Andujar and more
SD has prospects AND 3 way possible too

No one knows what the hell NYY is doing-most believe if they get JT they would flip him to Cincy/NYM or LAD. They are still in however because Denbo likes Andujar,Tyler Wade,lots of their prospects and Marlins FO hate LAD FO and are sick of dealing with NYM

Should note another reason Miami is letting this drag on besides trying to get the most they can for JT is they were hoping Ramos/Grandal signed with someone like LAA or CWS and they could up the price again on NYM/Atlanta or others

[Lee Stone]

Miami is hoping to get something done this week. With who is anyone's guess?

They are still talking with NYM/NYY/Cincy/SD/TB/Milwaukee and despite what u hear-Atlanta.

Cincy/Milwaukee/TB are longshots and Atlanta is in with a very solid offer like Mish said BUT like Bowman said they really aren't talking with us. Atlanta sent Miami the offer and moved onto OF/SP-they told us we can take the offer or not but they are done "talking"

NYM has Nimmo/Gimenez and more
NYY has Andujar and more
SD has prospects AND 3 way possible too

No one knows what the hell NYY is doing-most believe if they get JT they would flip him to Cincy/NYM or LAD. They are still in however because Denbo likes Andujar,Tyler Wade,lots of their prospects and Marlins FO hate LAD FO and are sick of dealing with NYM

Should note another reason Miami is letting this drag on besides trying to get the most they can for JT is they were hoping Ramos/Grandal signed with someone like LAA or CWS and they could up the price again on NYM/Atlanta or others

Like Denbo, I love Andujar too. He oughta be in RF. Realistically, Nimmo/Giminez headliners fill Miami's needs best. Miami has SS prospects in the system but nothing remotely close to Giminez, who seems September ready.

[lou]

Andujar is a 1B based on his defense last year, but that's OK. You probably let him play at 3B in 2019 and if he sucks, move him to 1B permanently.

Service time manipulation is a real thing and if they were to call up Gimenez before approx April 20, 2020, that would lose them a full year of service time (but for those first 20 days in April). If they get him, it's mid-April 2020, or delay it until after Super2 thresholds in June 2020. This is very important and why, at minimum, VVM, Neidert, Diaz, Monte, and Guzman better not be up before July 1st this year.

I agree Atlanta is full of shit and they want him, but I also believe they may be done with the Marlins posturing and have told them the basics of what they will give up.

[tjfla]

Like Denbo, I love Andujar too. He oughta be in RF. Realistically, Nimmo/Giminez headliners fill Miami's needs best. Miami has SS prospects in the system but nothing remotely close to Giminez, who seems September ready.

Andujar is a 1B long term and if Gimenez is in he deal he would likely be in minors till Aug/Sept or until Rojas dealt at deadline

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Andujar is a 1B based on his defense last year, but that's OK. You probably let him play at 3B in 2019 and if he sucks, move him to 1B permanently.

Service time manipulation is a real thing and if they were to call up Gimenez before approx April 20, 2020, that would lose them a full year of service time (but for those first 20 days in April). If they get him, it's mid-April 2020, or delay it until after Super2 thresholds in June 2020. This is very important and why, at minimum, VVM, Neidert, Diaz, Monte, and Guzman better not be up before July 1st this year.

I agree Atlanta is full of shit and they want him, but I also believe they may be done with the Marlins posturing and have told them the basics of what they will give up.

If Gimenez is in the deal they likely wait till August/Sept(they should have JT Riddle at SS all year until Gimenez is ready then he moves to UT)

Exactly what happened with Atlanta. They are "in" but refuse to talk anymore with us. They sent us a Final Offer and said let us know-like Mish said Riley is in it and not surprised he hasn't reported other names because some say Sean Newcomb and others say Dansby Swanson is ALSO in it

Miami-Riley/Sean Newcomb OR Dansby Swanson/Arm like Wentz or Muller

Hearing Soroka/Anderson/Wright are NOT in it

This is why Bowman(pretty solid Braves guy) has said that Atl didn't talk to us lately. They have their offer in and moved onto OF/Vet SP which they want anyway if they trade for JT or not

Issue with Atlanta is 2 things-#1 Like been saying we don't wanna trade JT there or Philly(Same Division-NYM who cares cause will suck anyways) and #2 If we do trade him there we want them to OVERPAY-this is why Philly dropped out and NYM can't pull the trigger and NYY still in.

What we want is hope Grandal and Ramos signs with someone like LAA/CWS then all of a sudden they get desperate and crazy offers arrive from NYM/LAD/whoever else. Miami is trying to hit a grand slam but only like 2 runners on base right now

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If we do trade with NYY I wouldnt be surprised if JT was flipped to SD/NYM/Cincy/LAD

Andujar/Clint Frazier/Tyler Wade/Deivi Garcia/other prospects is all stuff Denbo likes. Maybe even 3 way and get other prospects/young ML guys?

[Lee Stone]

That Atlanta offer is something to sneeze at. Braves would be dealing Swanson (a poor alternative to a Rojas/Riddle platoon) or Newcombe (who isn't viewed as good enough for their rotation). It seems inconcieivable that Yanks would offer more than Andujar and a middling pitching prospect. Mets win if it's Nimmo and Giminez - and it ain't close.

[tjfla]

That Atlanta offer is something to sneeze at. Braves would be dealing Swanson (a poor alternative to a Rojas/Riddle platoon) or Newcombe (who isn't viewed as good enough for their rotation). It seems inconcieivable that Yanks would offer more than Andujar and a middling pitching prospect. Mets win if it's Nimmo and Giminez - and it ain't close.

NYY would be more I just havent heard what beside those 2 guys.(Hard to tell cause Denbo has favs like LY trade)
Why do u think Miami hasnt jumped on Atlanta's offer. They want an OVERPAY and really aren't getting at(Solid offer but could be beat)
NYM offer of Nimmo/Gimenez/Vientos OR Mauricio/C is a winner but Mets are gun shy on trading Nimmo/Rosario. Pretty much scared of what fans think

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From Heyman

— The Braves have been in touch with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, and new word that Tyler Flowers could be had in trade lends credence to the idea that the Braves could wind up with Realmuto. One rival suggests he could see the Braves as a favorite. “They have the prospects,” that rival pointed out …

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What Miami wants from Atlanta is something like this

Riley
Newcomb OR Swanson
2 pitchers from list of 2nd Tier Touki/Wilson/Wentz/Muller/Allard

So they are pretty much saying NO over 1 mid level yet good arm but its all about getting that OVERPAY. Atlanta won't talk anymore about it

This is why said likely something done this week. NYM/Atlanta/NYY are all close with SD/TB/Cincy/Milwaukee waiting in wings with 2 of them offering pretty solid deals

[sports24/7]

Andujar, plus is the best possible outcome for me. The guy looks like a young star, no matter where he plays.

[tjfla]

Andujar, plus is the best possible outcome for me. The guy looks like a young star, no matter where he plays.

Not sure about best outcome but Denbo loves him which is why NYY are still in it.

I just hope Marlin fans dont flip out when we get Andujar and then NYY trades JT to LAD/NYM/SD for nice package


I could deal with

NYY trades Sonny Gray to Cincy or SD for prospects and then those Prospects/Andujar/Deivi Garcia for JT. Andujar/Garcia/Jeter Downs/another prospect OR Andujar/Garcia and 2 of SD's solid group

[fauowls44]

Ramos to NYM. 1 team down for JT...

[Lee Stone]

Ramos to NYM. 1 team down for JT...

And so goes what I thought was the right deal for the Marlins. I wonder what Mets best offer for JT really was? Maybe that will leak out. I don't like anything about Austin Riley as the mainstay of Atlanta deal, so screw that. How about the Indians? MacKenzie and Nolan Jones?