2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

lee stone always there for a reminder that he has no idea how to evaluate talent/performance

[Lee Stone]

lee stone always there for a reminder that he has no idea how to evaluate talent/performance

Most say that the Marlins can't afford another whiff on a trade, esp. with their last major trade piece. Please share your analytical expertise with regard to why Rosario's 2018 performance should be disregarded. Can we disregard Lewis Brinson's last season also? PS: Responses to others on a team forum should never be in the form of personal disparagement. If you disagree with opinions of others, explain your own. What does saying that someone else is full of crap accomplish, esp when you repeat it over and over?

[tjfla]

Morning JT Update

Marlins are pissed at the NYM. Have given them 3 deals and they still undecided on dealing Rosario or Thor. Still could happen as Rosario is who is holding up deal but Miami moved onto other teams last night. I hope Rosario becomes a HOF because they are gonna get Maldonado instead of JT because of him

We are still playing hardball however with Atlanta/LAD/Houston. Crazy thing about this is if we werent asking for the moon we could prolly get something done with 1 of them fast

Atlanta-Riley/2 pitchers at least
LAD-Bellinger AND prospects
Houston-Tucker/2 pitchers at least

Philly could be in but we asked them for Sixto/Nick Williams/Alfaro/2 other GOOD prospects and we were told NO

SD is in but NOTHING far yet. One rumor that was going around last night was this

SD-JT/Sonny Gray
NYY-??
Miami-Andujar and prospects from both

NYY are talking to us for JT but it longshot and they would flip him to NYM/SD/LAD if they got him

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I think we are screwing up with LAD/Houston

Instead ask for

LAD-Verdugo/Will Smith OR Ruiz/SP(Shit take back Dick Mountain and send them Straily too)
Hou-Tucker/SP/mid level/C

I agree with asking Philly and Atlanta for crazy stuff and screw the NYM!!! Been talking with them for a week now and the FO cant decide on 1 guy to make or break the deal-give them a choice either include Rosario or done talking

Should note. I highly doubt we ever talk trade with LAD for awhile-Miami is sick of their FO after Yelich/Stanton crap LY and the JT stuff this year. They think Jeff Loria is still here I guess-keep lowballing us and telling us we need to take back contracts WTF????????

[Lee Stone]

My hunch is that the Yankees wind up sending Andujar to Cleveland for Kluber.

[tjfla]

My hunch is that the Yankees wind up sending Andujar to Cleveland for Kluber.

Ya I dont think we do a NYY deal unless its a 3 way,we like Andujar and their SP prospects

FO is scrambling right now because NYM whom they thought they could work a deal with

[lou]

I'd say the bluffing is coming from NYMets. They are hoping to build up Rosario into something highly coveted - not easy when both his offense and defense fall short of Miggy Rojas. Would you want to trade Realmuto to Atlanta for a package headlined by Darby Swanson? He was another top prospect who fizzled like Rosario.

Swanson is 2 years older and has 1 less year of control. This is a big difference from Rosario. The jury is still out on both of them, but there is a lot more to like with giving Rosario a few more years to catch up. Also, in his last 250 PA, Rosario basically hit .285/.318/.415. That's around what Jose Peraza did last year in a full season, with similar defense. That's a 2.7 WAR player. Give a small uptick in offense and/or solidifying defensively a little, and you're Jean Segura (3.8 WAR) overnight. The Mets know this. I don't think they are being unreasonable with him. It's a risk to move move, even if Realmuto is awesome. (This is why they need to stop being stupid and move an OF or Alonso in the deal to match with Gimenez, but anyways.)

Also we've been over this before, but Rosario had a 1.5 WAR last year and Rojas 1. Please scroll back and find post about fWAR as a better indicator of future performance. There is a reason the Fangraphs guys more often, and not ESPN/baseball reference ones, are being hired by teams. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ter=&players=0

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Most say that the Marlins can't afford another whiff on a trade, esp. with their last major trade piece. Please share your analytical expertise with regard to why Rosario's 2018 performance should be disregarded. Can we disregard Lewis Brinson's last season also? PS: Responses to others on a team forum should never be in the form of personal disparagement. If you disagree with opinions of others, explain your own. What does saying that someone else is full of crap accomplish, esp when you repeat it over and over?

It shouldn't be disregarded, maybe look at August/September as stated.

For the love of fuck Rosario had 2.5 WAR more than Brinson last year.

[tjfla]

I'd say the bluffing is coming from NYMets. They are hoping to build up Rosario into something highly coveted - not easy when both his offense and defense fall short of Miggy Rojas. Would you want to trade Realmuto to Atlanta for a package headlined by Darby Swanson? He was another top prospect who fizzled like Rosario.

Not really sure how they are bluffing since Rosario is already coveted

Miami keeps offering

NYM-JT/Rojas
Miami-Rosario/Nimmo/Peterson/C

the NYM response is we aren't sure we wanna trade Rosario. Let us think about it-they talk about it and half wants to keep him and the other half wants to trade him

[Lee Stone]

Swanson is 2 years older and has 1 less year of control. This is a big difference from Rosario. The jury is still out on both of them, but there is a lot more to like with giving Rosario a few more years to catch up. Also, in his last 250 PA, Rosario basically hit .285/.318/.415. That's around what Jose Peraza did last year in a full season, with similar defense. That's a 2.7 WAR player. Give a small uptick in offense and/or solidifying defensively a little, and you're Jean Segura (3.8 WAR) overnight. The Mets know this. I don't think they are being unreasonable with him. It's a risk to move move, even if Realmuto is awesome. (This is why they need to stop being stupid and move an OF or Alonso in the deal to match with Gimenez, but anyways.)

Also we've been over this before, but Rosario had a 1.5 WAR last year and Rojas 1. Please scroll back and find post about fWAR as a better indicator of future performance. There is a reason the Fangraphs guys more often, and not ESPN/baseball reference ones, are being hired by teams. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ter=&players=0

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It shouldn't be disregarded, maybe look at August/September as stated.

For the love of fuck Rosario had 2.5 WAR more than Brinson last year.

For the love of fuck, why not take Nimmo and Giminez and flip Nimmo to Atlanta? I know we've been there before, but the match is too obvious to ignore. Riley and Anderson. Good trade. Marlins get future SS, solid hitter in Riley that lets B. Anderson fill an OF spot, and a starting pitcher with premiere upside. Giminez is looking better at age 19 than Rosario did.

[tjfla]

For the love of fuck, why not take Nimmo and Giminez and flip Nimmo to Atlanta? I know we've been there before, but the match is too obvious to ignore. Riley and Anderson. Good trade. Marlins get future SS, solid hitter in Riley that lets B. Anderson fill an OF spot, and a starting pitcher with premiere upside.

They arent getting Riley and Anderson for Nimmo(probably looking at Wentz/Mueller/Touki and Pache or another arm) and for some reason Miami doesn't seem to into Gimenez(I like Gimenez better than Rosario)

NYM would love if we took

Mia-Nimmo/Gimenez and others

Actually what they have been offering for like 2 weeks LOL

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Miami FO is like the NYM FO in the Rosario/Gimenez debate

Half of NYM love Rosario and other Half love Gimenez
Half of Miami FO love Rosario(Jeter/Denbo's half) and other half love Gimenez

[lou]

For the love of fuck, why not take Nimmo and Giminez and flip Nimmo to Atlanta? I know we've been there before, but the match is too obvious to ignore. Riley and Anderson. Good trade. Marlins get future SS, solid hitter in Riley that lets B. Anderson fill an OF spot, and a starting pitcher with premiere upside. Giminez is looking better at age 19 than Rosario did.

I don't disagree with this. If the Mets offer Nimmo, Gimenez, Alonso/Petersen, and Nido for Realmuto, that is above the "yes" line as to taking it and the debate is, is there something better out there. That's including the Marlins kicking in someone like Conley/Wittgren. I don't want to project double trades, but whether you keep or move Nimmo, either is fine. The Marlins are getting good value which is all that matters.

But the point is, Rosario is not a shlub, nor is Swanson (who isn't a shlub either). Rosario is valuable.

[Lee Stone]

Seriously, what, if anything, does Rosario do better than Giminez? Both lack power and all other tools are at least a push. Giminez has an additional year of control. I find it hard to believe there can be a hangup there.

[lou]

Seriously, what, if anything, does Rosario do better than Giminez? Both lack power and all other tools are at least a push. Giminez has an additional year of control. I find it hard to believe there can be a hangup there.

To help you here, if the Marlins were to call up Gimenez 15 days into a season (i.e., what they didn't do with Jose Fernandez), it is "7" years of control (and a Super2 status). So Gimenez could have 1.5-2 more years of control if they do it right. Basically, calling him up Summer 2020, or April 16th 2021. Look at Kris Bryant's call up as the comp here.

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I'm fine with either. They just need a SS who can start by 2021.

[tjfla]

Seriously, what, if anything, does Rosario do better than Giminez? Both lack power and all other tools are at least a push. Giminez has an additional year of control. I find it hard to believe there can be a hangup there.

2 different players

Rosario 6'2 190 more bat/power
Gimenez 5'11 160 more glove/speed

Rosario they know what they are getting
Gimenez younger and more control

I am like lou-I would take either but actually like Gimenez more but Miami seems intent on getting Rosario or even Andujar.

Both can be 2020 Starting SS

[lou]

Also, what does Rosario do better. The scouts see this. They are both still young enough for this to apply:

Rosario

Hit 40/60
Game Power 40/50
Raw Power 50/55
Speed 60/60
Field 55/60
Throw 60/60

Gimenez

Hit 40/60
Game Power 20/40
Raw Power 35/45
Speed 55/50
Field 45/55
Throws 60/60

Rosario is going to have (a lot) more power, and "maybe" a tick up as a fielder. Of course, that's assuming if they work out. Whoever probably develops the "hit" tool the best will be the better long term player as the defense and speed are probably a practical push. If you think Gimenez is going to hit like his 2018 A+ slash (.282/.348/.432, 28/11 SB/CS), there is going to be no real practical difference unless Rosario really has an explosion and starts hitting like Didi.

[lou]

FG Updated Braves prospects - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-...tlanta-braves/

If you're going by their surplus value evaluations:

Pache/Riley - $46
Anderson/Soroka/Wright - $34
Waters/Contreras - $28
Touki/Gohara/Wilson - $20
Wentz - $6
Allard/Muller - $4
Everyone else - $2-4

It's easy to get Realmuto to $80 million in surplus value on both 2 and 5 year deals, his range is probably. $70-90. Conley is probably worth $10 plus if he's needed to throw in as he works for everyone.

Riley, Anderson/Soroka/Wright, and Wentz/Allard/Muller would be a good deal for Realmuto. Not really ground breaking analysis here. It would be really nice to get Contreras, but they would have to downgrade the bigger arm, or chuck in Steckenrider. Might not be the best idea.