2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

I see 25 year old LH slugger James Outman as a cf trade target from Dodgers. Perhaps part of a package for Pablo. Outman is basically a Misner-type that seems to have panned out.

[lou]

I see 25 year old LH slugger James Outman as a cf trade target from Dodgers. Perhaps part of a package for Pablo. Outman is basically a Misner-type that seems to have panned out.

Yes Lee. In July, the predominant idea was Vargas, Pages, Amaya, and Outman for Pablo and Cooper (since they wanted a bat pre-Gallo). Nothing new here with Outman.

They aren't going to move Vargas now, so you probably give up on Cartaya and swap in Busch here and think if they bite on that. Frankly, I think they might if it's Pablo, Rojas/Wendle, and a mid prospect or two like Ian Lewis and McCambley. Rojas (or Wendle) is pretty perfect with them so they can platoon with presumably Taylor and maybe a little Lux at SS. Muncy DHs. They could then spend on a free agent OF and be really set up. There is one in particular I am thinking about who hit a lot of home runs last year.

Marlins effectively get their longterm 1B in Busch to be able to phase out/platoon Cooper this year, hopefully longterm CF if not a corner OF, and ideally their 4th OF and bench SS. Maybe more if things click.

The offense turns over to this longterm as the kids supplant the veterans:

Fortes, Stallings
Busch
Jazz, Edwards
____, Amaya/Nunez
Groshans
Pages, DLC/Sanchez/Bleday
Outman (big platoon here of LF/CF)
Garcia
Berry

SCREAMING, and I mean SCREAMING, Correa here if they were to pull something off like this. I don't love the idea of still maybe not having a true defensive CF (as Outman is likely a backup), but it's difficult to argue that Busch/Pages won't hit so I think you'd risk it and that's good value for Pablo. Frankly, they'd still have another pitcher to trade in 2024 in everyone stays healthy, and, if they did sign Correa, all of Salas/Watson/Cappe become expendable do one of them could become a centerpiece for something else.


Trading with Arizona is still the best idea as Thomas/McCarthy would be perfect if the price is right, but this could work assuming there are another 1-3 moves behind this to fill out other spots.

[Nick]

Jeff Conine brought back as special assistant to the owner. Probably inconsequential, but nice to see some respect for the history of the franchise.

[fish16]

most recent JAckson and Mish article in the herald just came out and some stupidity- they feel Rogers is more likely to be traded than pablo. just moronic. Textbook overthinking. Rather than deal the guy 2 years from free agency with a huge history of shoulder injuries but finally coming off a healthy season, they will deal the guy 4 more years of team control coming off a horrendous season at his lowest value. All because pablo is close to Sandy. If that's not the dumbest reasoning for not trading him i dont know what is. This is really not that hard.

And anderson is at high risk of being non-tendered. Dont necessarily disagree with the move, but id try to sign him to a 1 year contract for cheaper than his arbitration number would be. He's not a starter but he's not worth the money he will get with his last few years.

[emkayseven]

I don't have an issue with moving Rogers if you get the value of his last few starts/2021 campaign. A smart team would extend Pablo anyway.

[lou]

most recent JAckson and Mish article in the herald just came out and some stupidity- they feel Rogers is more likely to be traded than pablo. just moronic. Textbook overthinking. Rather than deal the guy 2 years from free agency with a huge history of shoulder injuries but finally coming off a healthy season, they will deal the guy 4 more years of team control coming off a horrendous season at his lowest value. All because pablo is close to Sandy. If that's not the dumbest reasoning for not trading him i dont know what is. This is really not that hard.

And anderson is at high risk of being non-tendered. Dont necessarily disagree with the move, but id try to sign him to a 1 year contract for cheaper than his arbitration number would be. He's not a starter but he's not worth the money he will get with his last few years.

Are you seeing free agency with Martin Perez being paid $19m a season, Eovaldi DECLINING that amount as he thinks he can do better, Tyler Anderson getting $39m. Projections have Kluber/Eflin/Clevinger as $10m pitchers. The Marlins pitchers are all fine and extremely valuable. Rogers isn't at his lowest value. The industry still loves him. There were articles this trade deadline teams weren't discounting Rogers, and then there is this love letter https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-r...changed-it-up/. Assuming they bring in another stop-gap arm (Yarborough was released?), *any* SP not named Sandy is expendable for the right offensive piece(s). If it takes Rogers to get that Alek Thomas or Varsho package, so be it. If Eury is Corbin Carroll, so be it. As continually said, trading Pablo might be a good idea, but it is not the only idea.

I also think it's a good idea to give BA a 1/$3 with incentives prove it deal. If he says no, probably a DFA or trade. I do think he would have a big market for a bench/platoon role for clubs looking for a cheap and still pretty young guy. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with all the infielders.

[lou]

I don't have an issue with moving Rogers if you get the value of his last few starts/2021 campaign. A smart team would extend Pablo anyway.

I imagine any team trading for him is giving him 5/$70+ pretty quickly. And he can't say no to that two years from free agency and looking at maybe $6m this year and nothing guaranteed after it.

I do think it's a pass for the Marlins though because they have a lot of arms. No need to devote long term money there.

[lou]

And the Mariners got Kyle Lewis. Setting themselves up with a right hander for the OF that can work with all the lefties.

The CF trade is coming with them.

[Lee Stone]

Line 'em up! Present your top (realistic) trade return for Pablo Lopez. Yankees, Dodgers, SF, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, WS, Cards would all seem like logical trade partners.

[fish16]

Are you seeing free agency with Martin Perez being paid $19m a season, Eovaldi DECLINING that amount as he thinks he can do better, Tyler Anderson getting $39m. Projections have Kluber/Eflin/Clevinger as $10m pitchers. The Marlins pitchers are all fine and extremely valuable. Rogers isn't at his lowest value. The industry still loves him. There were articles this trade deadline teams weren't discounting Rogers, and then there is this love letter https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-r...changed-it-up/. Assuming they bring in another stop-gap arm (Yarborough was released?), *any* SP not named Sandy is expendable for the right offensive piece(s). If it takes Rogers to get that Alek Thomas or Varsho package, so be it. If Eury is Corbin Carroll, so be it. As continually said, trading Pablo might be a good idea, but it is not the only idea.

I also think it's a good idea to give BA a 1/$3 with incentives prove it deal. If he says no, probably a DFA or trade. I do think he would have a big market for a bench/platoon role for clubs looking for a cheap and still pretty young guy. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with all the infielders.

the industry still loving him and him being at his lowest value are not mutually exclusive things. He is coming off a truly horrendous year. From 2021, his k rate was way down, his bb rate is way up, he gave up 9 more hits, 26 more earned runs, 9 more home runs, and an ops that was .207 higher in 26 less innings last year compared to 2021. He was a complete disaster for all but the last few starts of the year before getting injured again. His value is easily at the lowest its been. To trade him at the bottom of his value with 4 years left of team control at the minimum as opposed to Pablo who is at the height of his value, has 2 years left before free agency, and they will not re-sign him, is asinine. This really is not as difficult as you make it out to be. You buy low, and you sell high. You dont sell low for a cheap promising arm at the bottom of their value instead of trading the guy with an injury history at the height of his value who you have no intention of, nor should you, of re-signing in 2 years. We have never been able to get, and we will never again be able to get, more for pablo than this offseason. We're not close to contention, and we have plenty of good cheap young pitching right behind him. It's an easy decision. And if they base their decision on pablo being friends with sandy, this organization is even dumber than they have made themselves look over recent years.

[lou]

Line 'em up! Present your top (realistic) trade return for Pablo Lopez. Yankees, Dodgers, SF, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, WS, Cards would all seem like logical trade partners.

I will amuse you Lee

Yankees - Peraza and Pereira, and they can have any lefty reliever on the 40 man on top of that, as well as Rojas/Wendle/BA if they would want any of them.

Dodgers - Pages, Busch, Amaya, and Outman, and Marlins chucking in Rojas/Wendle and another decent prospect not on the 40 man. Minimum Ian Lewis.

SF/BJ/CHC - No thanks

DBacks - It's probably not Pablo and another SP with more control, but it's Alek Thomas and getting them a right handed bat (maybe send BA and $1-2 m with him. He's perfect for them TBH). A footnote is Garret-McCarthy straight up if we believe McCarthy is a 1.5-2 WAR CF and going to produce a good platoon split moving forward. I'm not so sure about him yet as Garrett may be pretty good.

CHW - No thanks

Cards - Graffecco, Winn, and outside top 20 prospect(s), and they can take back whatever they want of a lefty reliever, Rojas/Wendle, maybe you swap Rojas/Wendle for DeJong which is a minor salary dump for them and fine, and the Marlins send over a minor prospect. I'd pass on O'Neil and the idea is Graffeco is another arm so then they can trade someone else to Arizona for Alek Thomas and still have Sandy/Cabrera/Garrett/Luzardo (assuming Rogers moved), and payroll for a stop gap SP on top of that (Clevinger/Eflin) with real midseason hope with Graffeco/Eury/Eder/Fulton. Winn is probably 2 years away, but it's good value here and then blow it out for Trea Turner and figure out everyone's positions in 2025. This one is most difficult.


It's Arizona or Baltimore (Mullins). They desperately need SP and they can burn the OF in the right deal.

[lou]

the industry still loving him and him being at his lowest value are not mutually exclusive things. He is coming off a truly horrendous year. From 2021, his k rate was way down, his bb rate is way up, he gave up 9 more hits, 26 more earned runs, 9 more home runs, and an ops that was .207 higher in 26 less innings last year compared to 2021. He was a complete disaster for all but the last few starts of the year before getting injured again. His value is easily at the lowest its been. To trade him at the bottom of his value with 4 years left of team control at the minimum as opposed to Pablo who is at the height of his value, has 2 years left before free agency, and they will not re-sign him, is asinine. This really is not as difficult as you make it out to be. You buy low, and you sell high. You dont sell low for a cheap promising arm at the bottom of their value instead of trading the guy with an injury history at the height of his value who you have no intention of, nor should you, of re-signing in 2 years. We have never been able to get, and we will never again be able to get, more for pablo than this offseason. We're not close to contention, and we have plenty of good cheap young pitching right behind him. It's an easy decision. And if they base their decision on pablo being friends with sandy, this organization is even dumber than they have made themselves look over recent years.

First, culture is really important. Happen to see front page of the news right now with a tech platform being lit on fire by a maniac? Continually trading your best players when you are legitimately getting closer to contending with this staff is a buzzkill for these guys. You want to trade Pablo for Matthew Tkachuk or Tyreek Hill? Go for it, that's different. But continually moving for prospects is a real issue. It's time for them to contend.

Second, "not closing to contending" isn't really right. Currently they are projected for a 15.5 WAR position core (league average 18-20 WAR), and that's without a SS and a CF. You can do the math there of what 2-3 upgrades will do (even two 2 WAR normal guys is very helpful here, let alone if they are smart and do get a star). Pitching, they are currently 14th in projection, but they are a sneeze to getting to the 6th-8th range if Sandy repeats and they get very small steps forward from everyone and a good bullpen year from someone ala recent Bleier/Floro/Bass performances. Or Eury is good immediately. Frankly, this will probably happen and they move clearly into the top 10. They are in fact, 2 really good position player upgrades, good health news with the SP, and another good reliever away from being pretty dangerous. Note here, this is why Bruce is an idiot. Read the room and get these guys. If you build it they will come.

Third, your opinion is noted about your perceived idea of value, and it is rejected. Pablo is *MORE* valuable than the deadline right now so you know, because (1) the SP $$$ market has radically increased making him even more valuable with a non-guaranteed $5.8m or so tender coming and nothing for next year (this is *extremely* important my dude), and (2) he proved he can throw 180 innings. These did not exist in July. KUDOS to the Marlins for not taking a "Mahle" deal (undersold) and are holding out for the deal they deserve. As well as, he is just good and they can keep him. As for Rogers, already discussed the SP $$$ market has exploded and no analytics department is worried about his performance. Let's not brush it off saying he gave up 9 more hits. If your position is he is less valuable than having 5 years of control and coming off his 2021 year, SURE. But it is frankly a drop in the bucket based on THIS FREE AGENCY MARKET which is a new factor. They will get a HAUL for any of their front 5 SP and Eury. Garrett probably needs to prove it again, but that's about it. A HAUL. They are some of the most valuable properties in baseball right now - high upside young SP in a world Martin Perez is getting $19m a season. Spencer Strider got a bigger deal than Sandy and he throws 2 pitches. Think about that. Frankly, I think Sandy is a top 5-8 most valuable player in baseball, Eury is likely 40-60 somewhere, and Pablo/Rogers/Luzardo/Cabrera all are 60-100 somewhere.


As continually stated, they can trade any of their non-Sandy SP for the right deal for bat upgrades, and then sign a stop-gap 4th/5th SP or really good bulk reliever type for 100+ innings, and the team will work out. Scenarios exist Pablo may be the right deal, but you really got to accept this is not black and white, he is not the other path, and find the forest in the trees. The sky isn't falling even if Garcia/Soler sucked last year. They just have to be smart with what assets they have to work with.

[Lee Stone]

I will amuse you Lee

Yankees - Peraza and Pereira, and they can have any lefty reliever on the 40 man on top of that, as well as Rojas/Wendle/BA if they would want any of them.

Dodgers - Pages, Busch, Amaya, and Outman, and Marlins chucking in Rojas/Wendle and another decent prospect not on the 40 man. Minimum Ian Lewis.

SF/BJ/CHC - No thanks

DBacks - It's probably not Pablo and another SP with more control, but it's Alek Thomas and getting them a right handed bat (maybe send BA and $1-2 m with him. He's perfect for them TBH). A footnote is Garret-McCarthy straight up if we believe McCarthy is a 1.5-2 WAR CF and going to produce a good platoon split moving forward. I'm not so sure about him yet as Garrett may be pretty good.

CHW - No thanks

Cards - Graffecco, Winn, and outside top 20 prospect(s), and they can take back whatever they want of a lefty reliever, Rojas/Wendle, maybe you swap Rojas/Wendle for DeJong which is a minor salary dump for them and fine, and the Marlins send over a minor prospect. I'd pass on O'Neil and the idea is Graffeco is another arm so then they can trade someone else to Arizona for Alek Thomas and still have Sandy/Cabrera/Garrett/Luzardo (assuming Rogers moved), and payroll for a stop gap SP on top of that (Clevinger/Eflin) with real midseason hope with Graffeco/Eury/Eder/Fulton. Winn is probably 2 years away, but it's good value here and then blow it out for Trea Turner and figure out everyone's positions in 2025. This one is most difficult.


It's Arizona or Baltimore (Mullins). They desperately need SP and they can burn the OF in the right deal.

I would take that return from the Dodgers in a second. The Yankees deal seems fair to me and worth the risk. I don't think the Marlins can deal more than one of Alcantara, Lopez, Garrett. Rodgers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Perez or Eder w/o starting pitching troubles. There will be injuries, always are.

Note: by moving Alcantars instead of Lopez, the Marlins could add starters at C and 3B to the Dodger list (Vargas and Cartaya).

[fish16]

First, culture is really important. Happen to see front page of the news right now with a tech platform being lit on fire by a maniac? Continually trading your best players when you are legitimately getting closer to contending with this staff is a buzzkill for these guys. You want to trade Pablo for Matthew Tkachuk or Tyreek Hill? Go for it, that's different. But continually moving for prospects is a real issue. It's time for them to contend.

Second, "not closing to contending" isn't really right. Currently they are projected for a 15.5 WAR position core (league average 18-20 WAR), and that's without a SS and a CF. You can do the math there of what 2-3 upgrades will do (even two 2 WAR normal guys is very helpful here, let alone if they are smart and do get a star). Pitching, they are currently 14th in projection, but they are a sneeze to getting to the 6th-8th range if Sandy repeats and they get very small steps forward from everyone and a good bullpen year from someone ala recent Bleier/Floro/Bass performances. Or Eury is good immediately. Frankly, this will probably happen and they move clearly into the top 10. They are in fact, 2 really good position player upgrades, good health news with the SP, and another good reliever away from being pretty dangerous. Note here, this is why Bruce is an idiot. Read the room and get these guys. If you build it they will come.

Third, your opinion is noted about your perceived idea of value, and it is rejected. Pablo is *MORE* valuable than the deadline right now so you know, because (1) the SP $$$ market has radically increased making him even more valuable with a non-guaranteed $5.8m or so tender coming and nothing for next year (this is *extremely* important my dude), and (2) he proved he can throw 180 innings. These did not exist in July. KUDOS to the Marlins for not taking a "Mahle" deal (undersold) and are holding out for the deal they deserve. As well as, he is just good and they can keep him. As for Rogers, already discussed the SP $$$ market has exploded and no analytics department is worried about his performance. Let's not brush it off saying he gave up 9 more hits. If your position is he is less valuable than having 5 years of control and coming off his 2021 year, SURE. But it is frankly a drop in the bucket based on THIS FREE AGENCY MARKET which is a new factor. They will get a HAUL for any of their front 5 SP and Eury. Garrett probably needs to prove it again, but that's about it. A HAUL. They are some of the most valuable properties in baseball right now - high upside young SP in a world Martin Perez is getting $19m a season. Spencer Strider got a bigger deal than Sandy and he throws 2 pitches. Think about that. Frankly, I think Sandy is a top 5-8 most valuable player in baseball, Eury is likely 40-60 somewhere, and Pablo/Rogers/Luzardo/Cabrera all are 60-100 somewhere.


As continually stated, they can trade any of their non-Sandy SP for the right deal for bat upgrades, and then sign a stop-gap 4th/5th SP or really good bulk reliever type for 100+ innings, and the team will work out. Scenarios exist Pablo may be the right deal, but you really got to accept this is not black and white, he is not the other path, and find the forest in the trees. The sky isn't falling even if Garcia/Soler sucked last year. They just have to be smart with what assets they have to work with.

This isnt a salary cap sport. This is a sport where you get the first 6 years of a players career for dirt cheap. As a small market team, you absolutely deal for prospects when guys are about to get expensive and are at the height of their value because that's how you create a great team on a limited budget when each team doesnt have the same amount of money to spend. When you bring up moves for Hill and Tkachuk, you are comparing apples to oranges.

no conversation with you is productive because you take 0 reflection every year to see that your WAR numbers are ridiculous. They have 0 impact lineup pieces outside of Jazz, who has been hurt for significant portions of each of the least 2 years. You continue to bring up WAR without just looking at basic offensive stats to see that this offense is god awful, and not remotely close to having any impact hitting prospects. you can continue to make these absurd projections, like you did for stallings and others last year, but it's a useless conversation because you never take any time to reflect on the fact that your projections are laughable year in and year out. This lineup is not remotely close to contention. Not to mention you continue to use WAR when defensive value is greatly overrated with WAR. If you want to use offensive WAR, let's do that. But relying on WAR when Stallings, Wendle, Rojas, etc are all defensive based war and this team does not have a single impact hitter outside of Jazz. Just look at the other contenders and tell me this team is anywhere near the realm of close to contention. Braves- Albies, Acuna, Riley, Olson, Harris. Mets- Lindor, Mcneil, Marte, Alonso, Nimmo if they bring him back, and they have the top prospect in baseball. Phillies- Harper, Castellanos, JT, Hoskins, Schwarber, Bohm. And that's just in our division. Dodgers- Smith, Betts, Freeman, Turner if they re-sign him, Lux, and like 4 top 100 hitting prospects. You take 0 notice of what good lineups around the league actually look like and rely on a hugely flawed stat in WAR that greatly outweighs defensive value and act like this team doesnt clearly have one of the 3 worst lineups in baseball.

Culture is important. Trading pablo doesnt break the culture. the rays trade impact pieces yearly at the height of their value and are in the playoffs annually because getting the most out of your most valuable assets and trading them at the height of their value and not giving them enormous long term contracts is how you succeed as a small market team in baseball.

[sports24/7]

And the Mariners got Kyle Lewis. Setting themselves up with a right hander for the OF that can work with all the lefties.

The CF trade is coming with them.

Mish has talked about them looking for someone like what the Phillies did with Marsh. Someone who was well thought of, but who's stock has dropped, and you buy low to hope their game gets back up closer to where they were once valued. Jarred Kelenic fits that mold perfectly. I wonder just how cheap you could get him because he was the top prospect in baseball not that long ago, but he'd be a very interesting name to watch for. Only thing is, he's a lefty.

As for the Trevor Rogers thing, I'd have zero issue trading him if he truly is valued highly around the league still like we've heard from both the local and national writers. The Marlins are rich on lefties, so it would make sense on that front. And I've never been all that high on him anyway because I don't think he has stuff that should wow anyone. All things being equal, I'd probably rather move Pablo mainly because of his injury history, and the fact that I think there's zero chance they keep him meaning they'll probably trade him at his lowest value before he hits FA. But if you can net a bigger return for Rogers, go for it.