2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

In the last 2 years he's started 66 games at 2b and 171 at other positions. And he is one of the best hitters in baseball. As evidenced by winning the batting title, even though that is a little outdated of a stat, but no one hits .316 anymore with more walks than strike outs while still putting up close to a .800 OPS. he is absolutely one of the best pure hitters in baseball. and he'd honestly be perfect for this ballpark.

So what where he has started. Fortes DH'd and he isn't a DH.

Kirilloff got hurt last year and he played 1B out of desperation and they had better options. The guy is a good 2B who can play LF and dabble at 1B. That's it. You don't trade main assets to play guys not at their best position. Talk to me about moving Jazz to SS and taking that plunge, or just throwing him in CF and his speed takes over, then this can make sense. Shit, trade Jazz for Corbin Carroll too!

[fish16]

So what where he has started. Fortes DH'd and he isn't a DH.

Kirilloff got hurt last year and he played 1B out of desperation and they had better options. The guy is a good 2B who can play LF and dabble at 1B. That's it. You don't trade main assets to play guys not at their best position. Talk to me about moving Jazz to SS and taking that plunge, or just throwing him in CF and his speed takes over, then this can make sense. Shit, trade Jazz for Corbin Carroll too!

Fortes dh’ed in 11 of 60 starts, good for 18% of his starts. Arraez has started at 2b for 28% of his starts the last 2 years. Using your logic and the percentage of starts at those positions, arraez is barely more of a 2b over the last 2 years than fortes is a dh. He plays multiple positions, and the bat is tremendous. If you can get him for a guy like Garrett plus prospects you pull the trigger immediately. He’s one of the best pure hitters and obp threats in the league, and has some of the best plate discipline in the leagie. He can’t be your only addition, but if he’s available he makes this a much better team, specifically in this big ass ballpark they play in. And he’s an absolute fan favorite in Minnesota because of how he plays the game
he was also a pretty good 1b according to your beloved fan graphs. 2.2 UZR and 6.6 uzr/150 and 4 defensive runs saved in just 60 games at 1b

[lou]

Fortes dh’ed in 11 of 60 starts, good for 18% of his starts. Arraez has started at 2b for 28% of his starts the last 2 years. Using your logic and the percentage of starts at those positions, arraez is barely more of a 2b over the last 2 years than fortes is a dh. He plays multiple positions, and the bat is tremendous. If you can get him for a guy like Garrett plus prospects you pull the trigger immediately. He’s one of the best pure hitters and obp threats in the league, and has some of the best plate discipline in the leagie. He can’t be your only addition, but if he’s available he makes this a much better team, specifically in this big ass ballpark they play in. And he’s an absolute fan favorite in Minnesota because of how he plays the game
he was also a pretty good 1b according to your beloved fan graphs. 2.2 UZR and 6.6 uzr/150 and 4 defensive runs saved in just 60 games at 1b

Sounds good. Get him for Garret and trade Jazz for Corbin Carroll. Then sign Correa.

[fish16]

Sounds good. Get him for Garret and trade Jazz for Corbin Carroll. Then sign Correa.

Or just trade for him and play him at first and add one of the best pure bats in baseball and have multiple really good hitters in a lineup and stop relying on Cooper to do anything other than get hurt and be fairly mediocre. This idea that he and jazz can’t possibly coexist in the same lineup is really dumb

[lou]

Or just trade for him and play him at first and add one of the best pure bats in baseball and have multiple really good hitters in a lineup and stop relying on Cooper to do anything other than get hurt and be fairly mediocre. This idea that he and jazz can’t possibly coexist in the same lineup is really dumb

The idea you think a guy with 14 career HR in 1569 PA is a longterm 1B and one of the best pure hitters in baseball is what one would call really dumb. It's also ironic you dump on the Marlins collection of solid role players (Berti, Wendle, Rojas), yet want to trade for a younger/better version of one who is more apt to start in his prime. For perspective, this is like saying Rojas should have been moved to 1B after the 2017 season because he had a .361 OBP and that plays anywhere. Are we so desperate for any news as Marlins fans literally anything is viewed as a good idea? A. Rosario is a very similar player to Arraez, and he plays SS. This is a better idea?

Don't get me wrong, Arraez is a very good player and a great buyout target 3 years from free agency, but to repeat, the Marlins should not devote their top or second best trade asset for primarily a 2B unless there is high confidence Jazz can play SS or CF longterm. Or he is traded for a SS or CF. Just because you could move Arraez somewhere else, doesn't mean you should. Also, have you considered Minnesota is floating his name out there as they know this may have been his peak season and they can potentially cash out of him? You know, your whole buy low/sell high philosophy you always seem to mention.

And to note - I am not opposed to the idea of moving Jazz for a "Carroll" level CF talent and trading Garrett and a solid prospect for Arraez to play at 2B. Ordinary fans may think that is peculiar as Jazz was really good last year, but ultimately solving CF is the longterm goal and everyone but Sandy is theoretically on the table even if Jazz/Eury are mostly untouchable. This scenario wouldn't impact 2B getting Arraez, so go for it. Correa or Rosario or Peraza on top of Carroll and Arraez (even losing Jazz) and the roster looks pretty good once they replace some innings as presumably Pablo and Garrett have been moved here. So this guy works, but yes, there is a major Jazz question that needs to be asked simultaneously if Arraez is your guy.

[Lee Stone]

Saw a trade proposal on the baseball trade site that intrigued me: Arraez and Royce Lewis for Pablo. Lewis, when healthy, can play short or center and offers intriguing potential IMO.

[fish16]

The idea you think a guy with 14 career HR in 1569 PA is a longterm 1B and one of the best pure hitters in baseball is what one would call really dumb. It's also ironic you dump on the Marlins collection of solid role players (Berti, Wendle, Rojas), yet want to trade for a younger/better version of one who is more apt to start in his prime. For perspective, this is like saying Rojas should have been moved to 1B after the 2017 season because he had a .361 OBP and that plays anywhere. Are we so desperate for any news as Marlins fans literally anything is viewed as a good idea? A. Rosario is a very similar player to Arraez, and he plays SS. This is a better idea?

Don't get me wrong, Arraez is a very good player and a great buyout target 3 years from free agency, but to repeat, the Marlins should not devote their top or second best trade asset for primarily a 2B unless there is high confidence Jazz can play SS or CF longterm. Or he is traded for a SS or CF. Just because you could move Arraez somewhere else, doesn't mean you should. Also, have you considered Minnesota is floating his name out there as they know this may have been his peak season and they can potentially cash out of him? You know, your whole buy low/sell high philosophy you always seem to mention.

And to note - I am not opposed to the idea of moving Jazz for a "Carroll" level CF talent and trading Garrett and a solid prospect for Arraez to play at 2B. Ordinary fans may think that is peculiar as Jazz was really good last year, but ultimately solving CF is the longterm goal and everyone but Sandy is theoretically on the table even if Jazz/Eury are mostly untouchable. This scenario wouldn't impact 2B getting Arraez, so go for it. Correa or Rosario or Peraza on top of Carroll and Arraez (even losing Jazz) and the roster looks pretty good once they replace some innings as presumably Pablo and Garrett have been moved here. So this guy works, but yes, there is a major Jazz question that needs to be asked simultaneously if Arraez is your guy.

No, that 2017 was Rojas with a single season with 272 ab's where he had 1 hr and a .736 OPS after 3 previous years of sub .329 OBP and 2 of those below .288. Comparing Rojas' single year of .290/.361/.375 to Arraez 4 full years of .314/.374/.410 and more walks than k's is nonsensical. I dont care about the power, i care that he is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, which he is. Also, you keep calling him a 2b when he's played 72% of his starts over the last 2 years at other positions. His bat profiles as a 2b traditionally, but the bat is so good it plays at other positions, despite the lack of power. He has nearly 1500 ab's in his career, he's hitting .314, OBP of .374, and slugging at .410 with a career K/BB of 131/137. That bat plays anywhere, i dont care if he is not a traditional 1b, he has graded out well there and that bat plays at any position with that production. Again, who cares where they play if they produce? If jazz gives you elite 1b production and Arraez gives you elite 2b production, who gives a flying fuck? They need great hitters, and Arraez is that.

And to clarify, im not saying get Arraez and be done with the offseason, because youre right that they need 1 more power bat, but you can both get arraez and not be done either in FA or trade. They have enough money to spend and other pieces. Also, it would never happen, but id give up Eury + a lot more to get Arraez plus Buxton. Buxton isnt available, but id give up the world for the 2 to be added to the lineup. Buxton is one of my favorite players in the league.

[fish16]

Saw a trade proposal on the baseball trade site that intrigued me: Arraez and Royce Lewis for Pablo. Lewis, when healthy, can play short or center and offers intriguing potential IMO.

would do that in an absolute heartbeat.

[fish16]

Mish reporting we are interested in justin turner. Highly doubt he chooses to come here as some sort of contender will give him some sort of role that is more attractive than coming here, but if they can get him thats a nice stop gap for 2 years. Much prefer him than wendle. His numbers were down a little last year but i think that was more due to the lockout than purely getting older, although there is obviously some of that in there. He was terrible in April and it brought down his numbers for the year. He was great in the 2nd half. Turner + Lewis + arraez while just giving up pablo and spending money is a no brainer to me if thats on the table.

C- Fortes
1b- Arraez/Cooper
2b- Jazz
SS- Rojas/Wendle (would like an upgrade there like rosario if the only piece we give up for Arraez and Lewis would be pablo)
3b- Turner
LF- Sanchez/Bleday/burdick combo
CF- Lewis
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler/Cooper

Purely hypothetical as i dont think turner would sign here and its very questionable whether pablo would be enough to get arraez and lewis, but if it is then you find whatever you need in the minor league system (no major leaguers) to get Rosario. That's a damn good team with rosario. And it's not all that expensive.

[lou]

No, that 2017 was Rojas with a single season with 272 ab's where he had 1 hr and a .736 OPS after 3 previous years of sub .329 OBP and 2 of those below .288. Comparing Rojas' single year of .290/.361/.375 to Arraez 4 full years of .314/.374/.410 and more walks than k's is nonsensical. I dont care about the power, i care that he is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, which he is. Also, you keep calling him a 2b when he's played 72% of his starts over the last 2 years at other positions. His bat profiles as a 2b traditionally, but the bat is so good it plays at other positions, despite the lack of power. He has nearly 1500 ab's in his career, he's hitting .314, OBP of .374, and slugging at .410 with a career K/BB of 131/137. That bat plays anywhere, i dont care if he is not a traditional 1b, he has graded out well there and that bat plays at any position with that production. Again, who cares where they play if they produce? If jazz gives you elite 1b production and Arraez gives you elite 2b production, who gives a flying fuck? They need great hitters, and Arraez is that.

And to clarify, im not saying get Arraez and be done with the offseason, because youre right that they need 1 more power bat, but you can both get arraez and not be done either in FA or trade. They have enough money to spend and other pieces. Also, it would never happen, but id give up Eury + a lot more to get Arraez plus Buxton. Buxton isnt available, but id give up the world for the 2 to be added to the lineup. Buxton is one of my favorite players in the league.

I'm a big advocate of "production is production" but I find it ironic that you are trying to sell me that here, while ignoring it whenever something positive is said about Berti/Wendle/Rojas being solid role players and/or other guys who play some defense. Your position will be stronger if it is consistent, and you are contradictory here to how you are evaluating similar players. Further, you also champion the Marlins must be smart and efficient as a small market team, and there is nothing efficient about playing guys out of position - yes out of position - as Arraez best position is 2B and the Marlins are set up there with Jazz.

As mentioned exponential times, if the idea is Jazz can play good enough SS or CF, or he can be moved for say Corbin Carroll in a package, this is a *great* idea. *OR* is Arraez a good defensive 3B? Stats say no but they are a small SSS, so maybe he can be OK? THAT would open up some options with kicking Groshans and LeBlanc to AAA for 2023 and maybe Arraez would get something like 80 starts at 3B (Berti the rest), 50 at 1B (all Cooper off days), and 20 at 2B (vs tougher lefties to get Jazz some off days built in). That's a full time starter, and then in 2024 Groshans becomes the 3B platoon partner, Jazz off-days stay the same, and presumably the Marlins can get a 1 year 1B to do the same thing again and he's playing 1.5 times a week at 1B. Would still need a SS and CF for "now" but they would theoretically be able to do that still. Trade for Rosario and sign Kiermaier and that's 3 pretty good bats they brought in, even if no stars.

But standing alone, trading for Arraez and playing him primarily at 1B (as they do have many LF options so that's where he would go), would be absolutely puzzling of a move. It's a Jazz move off 2B scenario, or Arraez is a 50% starter at 3B. That's the only way I can see that working and making smart and efficient sense. I ask again - Are we so desperate for any news as Marlins fans literally anything is viewed as a good idea?

[lou]

Mish reporting we are interested in justin turner. Highly doubt he chooses to come here as some sort of contender will give him some sort of role that is more attractive than coming here, but if they can get him thats a nice stop gap for 2 years. Much prefer him than wendle. His numbers were down a little last year but i think that was more due to the lockout than purely getting older, although there is obviously some of that in there. He was terrible in April and it brought down his numbers for the year. He was great in the 2nd half. Turner + Lewis + arraez while just giving up pablo and spending money is a no brainer to me if thats on the table.

C- Fortes
1b- Arraez/Cooper
2b- Jazz
SS- Rojas/Wendle (would like an upgrade there like rosario if the only piece we give up for Arraez and Lewis would be pablo)
3b- Turner
LF- Sanchez/Bleday/burdick combo
CF- Lewis
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler/Cooper

Purely hypothetical as i dont think turner would sign here and its very questionable whether pablo would be enough to get arraez and lewis, but if it is then you find whatever you need in the minor league system (no major leaguers) to get Rosario. That's a damn good team with rosario. And it's not all that expensive.

You wouldn't need Turner here. You would do what I said above - Arraez needs to play 50% of the time at 3B and get the Jazz lefty days at 2B. Parenthesis are 40 man in AAA.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (LeBlanc)
Jazz (Edwards)
_____, Rojas or Wendle (still need the SS)
Arraez, Berti (Groshans)
DLC, Sanchez (Bleday)
Lewis
Garcia (Burdick)
Soler (Jerar)

1B is 110/50 split for Cooper/Arraez
2B is 140/20 split for Jazz/Arraez
3B is 80/80 split for Berti/Arraez
Rojas/Wendle is maintenance days/defensive subs
Arraez/Berti/Soler are a combo 5th OF for maintenance days/defensive subs

Getting Rosario on this (or even better Correa) and this becomes extremely interesting. You can sell my that offensive is 18-20+ WAR without the SS. (Recall, 23 WAR is proverbially the range they need to get to to be a low-end contender). Rosario may just get you there or just under, Correa would be a real OOMPH move here.

[fish16]

I'm a big advocate of "production is production" but I find it ironic that you are trying to sell me that here, while ignoring it whenever something positive is said about Berti/Wendle/Rojas being solid role players and/or other guys who play some defense. Your position will be stronger if it is consistent, and you are contradictory here to how you are evaluating similar players. Further, you also champion the Marlins must be smart and efficient as a small market team, and there is nothing efficient about playing guys out of position - yes out of position - as Arraez best position is 2B and the Marlins are set up there with Jazz.

As mentioned exponential times, if the idea is Jazz can play good enough SS or CF, or he can be moved for say Corbin Carroll in a package, this is a *great* idea. *OR* is Arraez a good defensive 3B? Stats say no but they are a small SSS, so maybe he can be OK? THAT would open up some options with kicking Groshans and LeBlanc to AAA for 2023 and maybe Arraez would get something like 80 starts at 3B (Berti the rest), 50 at 1B (all Cooper off days), and 20 at 2B (vs tougher lefties to get Jazz some off days built in). That's a full time starter, and then in 2024 Groshans becomes the 3B platoon partner, Jazz off-days stay the same, and presumably the Marlins can get a 1 year 1B to do the same thing again and he's playing 1.5 times a week at 1B. Would still need a SS and CF for "now" but they would theoretically be able to do that still. Trade for Rosario and sign Kiermaier and that's 3 pretty good bats they brought in, even if no stars.

But standing alone, trading for Arraez and playing him primarily at 1B (as they do have many LF options so that's where he would go), would be absolutely puzzling of a move. It's a Jazz move off 2B scenario, or Arraez is a 50% starter at 3B. That's the only way I can see that working and making smart and efficient sense. I ask again - Are we so desperate for any news as Marlins fans literally anything is viewed as a good idea?

The issue is you continue to try to make arraez out to be a slightly better version of berti/rojas/wendle when he is significantly better than any of them have ever been. Almost all of their value is based on defense, all of arraez's value is based on the fact that he is an unbelievable pure hitter with great plate discipline. Jon Berti's career OPS + is 90. Miguel Rojas' is 85. Wendle's is 101 and coming off a season of 85. Arraez's for his career is 120, coming off a season of 130, and he's just 25. Those players are not comparable. It's not like Arraez is some black hole defensively that you have to hide. Arraez is a positive fielder at 1b and LF, 2b is actually 2nd worst position for him and 3b is the worst in a small sample. So no, despite what you continue to say based off body type and hitting profile and no actual research into his fielding ability, his best position isnt 2b, it's 1b or LF, and we have a glaring hole at 1b long term because Garrett Cooper has a ball magnet on his wrist and hand when he bats. The only reason you seem to want to make it seem like a travesty to play him at 1b is because of the body type and the lack of power, and really, who gives a shit if the guy hits like he is capable of hitting. That bat is so good that even without power it plays at every position.

I hate on Rojas, Berti, and Wendle because they cant hit themselves out of a wet paper bag and their value is almost all defensively or based on speed, and this team needs legitimate impact hitters. Ive never said that they arent major leaguers, ive said that they arent major league starters on good teams and this team needs impact hitting in the worst way. Cooper has done nothing in terms of production, fielding ability, or durability to guarantee him jack shit. He is a mediocre to average baseball player that cant be counted on to stay healthy that has hot streaks. Stop relying on the guy and treat anything he does as a bonus if he stays healthy. Him and Soler at DH is fine because neither stays healthy and if they do you have quality depth and you can use the utility guys to give people days off.

Arraez is one of the best leadoff or #2 hitters in baseball, cheap and under team control for years, plays multiple positions of need, and is just a flatly really good baseball player who isnt a defensive liability. I dont care about the position he plays, if you can get him and the price makes sense in terms of prospects, you do it in a heartbeat and your lineup becomes significantly better overnight, especially in our big ass ballpark.

[lou]

The issue is you continue to try to make arraez out to be a slightly better version of berti/rojas/wendle when he is significantly better than any of them have ever been. Almost all of their value is based on defense, all of arraez's value is based on the fact that he is an unbelievable pure hitter with great plate discipline. Jon Berti's career OPS + is 90. Miguel Rojas' is 85. Wendle's is 101 and coming off a season of 85. Arraez's for his career is 120, coming off a season of 130, and he's just 25. Those players are not comparable. It's not like Arraez is some black hole defensively that you have to hide. Arraez is a positive fielder at 1b and LF, 2b is actually 2nd worst position for him and 3b is the worst in a small sample. So no, despite what you continue to say based off body type and hitting profile and no actual research into his fielding ability, his best position isnt 2b, it's 1b or LF, and we have a glaring hole at 1b long term because Garrett Cooper has a ball magnet on his wrist and hand when he bats. The only reason you seem to want to make it seem like a travesty to play him at 1b is because of the body type and the lack of power, and really, who gives a shit if the guy hits like he is capable of hitting. That bat is so good that even without power it plays at every position.

I hate on Rojas, Berti, and Wendle because they cant hit themselves out of a wet paper bag and their value is almost all defensively or based on speed, and this team needs legitimate impact hitters. Ive never said that they arent major leaguers, ive said that they arent major league starters on good teams and this team needs impact hitting in the worst way. Cooper has done nothing in terms of production, fielding ability, or durability to guarantee him jack shit. He is a mediocre to average baseball player that cant be counted on to stay healthy that has hot streaks. Stop relying on the guy and treat anything he does as a bonus if he stays healthy. Him and Soler at DH is fine because neither stays healthy and if they do you have quality depth and you can use the utility guys to give people days off.

Arraez is one of the best leadoff or #2 hitters in baseball, cheap and under team control for years, plays multiple positions of need, and is just a flatly really good baseball player who isnt a defensive liability. I dont care about the position he plays, if you can get him and the price makes sense in terms of prospects, you do it in a heartbeat and your lineup becomes significantly better overnight, especially in our big ass ballpark.

The issue is you continue to try to make arraez out to be a slightly better version of berti/rojas/wendle when he is significantly better than any of them have ever been. - >>> How do you reconcile this with Berti was better PA to PA than Arraez last year, as well as Wendle PA to PA better than him in 2021 (as well as 2018 but that was a long time ago)

[fish16]

The issue is you continue to try to make arraez out to be a slightly better version of berti/rojas/wendle when he is significantly better than any of them have ever been. - >>> How do you reconcile this with Berti was better PA to PA than Arraez last year, as well as Wendle PA to PA better than him in 2021 (as well as 2018 but that was a long time ago)

I reconcile that by calling bullshit. Berti last year was 89 OPS+ and the year before was 71. WRC+ was 93 last year and 77 the year before. Wendle is better than both Rojas and Berti, but he's been bad for a year and a half. Last year his WRC+ was 86. In 2021, he was great for april and may and terrible the rest of the year. From june 1 to the end of the year in 2021 he had a WRC+ of 84 and a WRC+ last year of 87.

There is not a single measurement which says that Arraez on a pa to pa comparison is anywhere close to Berti, Rojas, or Wendle as a hitter. He just won the batting title with more bb's than k's and an OPS still near .800. Last year his OPS+ was 130, meaning he was about 44% better as a hitter than Wendle and 41% better than Berti.

[lou]

I reconcile that by calling bullshit. Berti last year was 89 OPS+ and the year before was 71. WRC+ was 93 last year and 77 the year before. Wendle is better than both Rojas and Berti, but he's been bad for a year and a half. Last year his WRC+ was 86. In 2021, he was great for april and may and terrible the rest of the year. From june 1 to the end of the year in 2021 he had a WRC+ of 84 and a WRC+ last year of 87.

There is not a single measurement which says that Arraez on a pa to pa comparison is anywhere close to Berti, Rojas, or Wendle as a hitter. He just won the batting title with more bb's than k's and an OPS still near .800. Last year his OPS+ was 130, meaning he was about 44% better as a hitter than Wendle and 41% better than Berti.

Ok here's one - Fangraphs overall WAR totals.

Arraez had a 3.1 war last year in 603 PA. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lu...ts?position=2B

Berti 2022 had a 2.3 war in 404 PA. Scale to 603 PA, Berti played at a 3.4 war pace. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...position=2B/3B

Wendle 2021 had a 2.9 war in 501 PA. Scale to 603 PA, Wendle played at a 3.5 war pace in 2021. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...position=2B/3B


These are factual statistics that Berti in 2022 and Wendle in 2021 - when they played and those are not small sample sizes - they out produced Arraez in 2022. So you're wrong.

If you're trying to figure out how this happened, it's because Arraez isn't being used to the full extent of his value playing out of position at 1B and LF - which have minimal defensive value versus being an above average 2B/SS/3B type. Also note, Wendle/Arraez are average at best base runners and Berti is super elite, adding some real value to him. If you want to argue being a "hitter" you at minimum can't ignore the base paths. Simply stated, if arguing "production is production" you cannot cherry pick this and simply look at something like OPS. As mentioned, your arguments will be stronger when not contradictory.

As stated, play Arraez at 2B and he would likely decimate Berti and Wendle as yea, they are older at this point and Arraez is ascending or has hit a great peak for himself offensively. Get Jazz to SS or CF, or Arraez as a 100+ game starter at 3B/2B off days, and sure let's talk. I did get a chuckle when pasting those URLs that Fangraphs denotes him as a 2B. But what do I know.