2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

We fell one spot in the Draft Lottery. We will select 10th instead of 9th.

Pirates and Twins the big winners. Hard luck team looks like the A’s.

[fish16]

How do you reconcile your positions that:

Arraez is a good 1B and his bat plays up there so while untraditional and yea maybe he is better at 2B, it is fine as production is production and who cares if he is a slap hitter. Its the bottom line.

versus

Reynolds should not be acquired to play CF, despite his bat (which is better than Arraez) playing up in CF, and production is not production in this instance so Reynolds is not a CF and the bottom line we shall ignore

My issue with reynolds was price and the inevitable move to a corner outfield spot, thus not actually filling the cf position. He doesn’t actually play cf well. Like at all. He had the 83rd best defensive grade in cf last year according to your beloved experts at fangraphs. Out of the 14 qualified cf’s, he was 13th. You wanted to give up the farm for a guy who didn’t actually fill the position long term and who you once again overrated because of your beloved war projections that are never actually accurate. Arraez graded out positively defensively at 1b. Reynolds has a negative uzr, uzr/150, and was -14 in defensive runs saved.

[fish16]

If you include just guys who had 100+ plate appearances in cf, reynolds ranked 69/70 defensively in cf

[lou]

If you include just guys who had 100+ plate appearances in cf, reynolds ranked 69/70 defensively in cf

But production is production, his bat plays up which is production, and defensive metrics aren't reliable.

So none of this matters according to you. So please again, I ask to reconcile how it's ok to play Arraez out of position but not Reynolds.

[fish16]

But production is production, his bat plays up which is production, and defensive metrics aren't reliable.

So none of this matters according to you. So please again, I ask to reconcile how it's ok to play Arraez out of position but not Reynolds.

Again, as I clearly just said, arreaz plays his non natural position incredibly well and isn’t a complete liability at 1b like reynolds is as one of the single worst defensive center fielders in baseball. Also, it’s the extent to which defensive metrics are weighted when calculating war that isn’t reliable, not necessarily the defensive metrics themselves for a lot of the metrics, though there are plenty of fielding metrics that aren’t reliable given the wild swings they have from year to year. Reynolds is a terrible defensive cf with or without metrics if you’ve ever actually watched him play center.

it’s pretty simple, arreaz bat is good enough to play him at 1st and really anywhere because the bat is tremendous and his glove is good at 1b whereas reynolds is one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball

[fish16]

I’d also do the deal for reynolds this year given that the price should be lower and it wouldn’t involve giving up the farm for a guy who doesn’t fill the long term need in cf. I just wouldn’t expect him to be in cf for very long

[fish16]

But production is production, his bat plays up which is production, and defensive metrics aren't reliable.

So none of this matters according to you. So please again, I ask to reconcile how it's ok to play Arraez out of position but not Reynolds.

I also laugh that you think saying “but production is production” is some gotcha when you quite literally said the same thing word for word about the horrendous berti/groshans combo at 3b for next year and the absurd prediction that that would produce 2.5+ war next year literally less than 5 days ago.

[sports24/7]

Ng said the Marlins were in on Bellinger and Bell, lol. I previously said I get coming up short on FA, but at some point you have to land one.

[Lee Stone]

Ng said the Marlins were in on Bellinger and Bell, lol. I previously said I get coming up short on FA, but at some point you have to land one.

Why on Earth would the Marlins even be interested in Bellinger and Bell? (or Turner for that matter.) I reiiiiiiiiiterate: the only ticket north in the future is a huge move ... Alcantara to Dodgers! Trading any of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Perez, Eder, Fulton would be nuts at this time. With the exception of Rogers, all the others will grow hugely in value if they merely match last year's level of performance. I don't know why they shouldn't do just that. I also believe that Rogers can rediscover his control, Remember: CF, 3B, SS or 2B, 1B, C and a corner OF are all huge needs.

[lou]

I also laugh that you think saying “but production is production” is some gotcha when you quite literally said the same thing word for word about the horrendous berti/groshans combo at 3b for next year and the absurd prediction that that would produce 2.5+ war next year literally less than 5 days ago.

Just so you know where that comes from:

FGDC 2023
Berti 469 PA 1.6 WAR
Groshans 217 PA .8 WAR

Steamer 2023
Berti 489 PA 1.6 WAR
Groshans 198 PA .8 WAR

They also have LeBlanc as above replacement level if someone gets hurt, and Wendle/Rojas (as one of them at minimum is the backup SS so they'll get *some* 3B time more than likely as 1.7-2 WAR players at roughly 475-550 PA).

For perspective (and yes I know innings were played at some other positions, but we're not talking a drastic defensive weight difference 2B/3B versus kicking out to RF, etc.):

Actual 2022
Berti 404 PA 2.3 WAR
Groshans 65 PA 0.0 WAR
LeBlanc 169 PA .9 WAR
(and Wendle/Rojas were well above replacement level)

FWIW, I think it's reasonable to project Berti decreases his production (which is what FGDC/Steamer are projecting, and pretty notably in fact) and Groshans takes a little step forward. Practically, I think Berti may be sold a little short here though (not much though) and Groshans is a bit too optimistic to effectively play at a 2+ WAR rate right away. But this grouping is ultimately unspectacularly solid on paper, but there is some upside if Berti does run absolutely wild again and Groshans inches up his slugging over .400, etc.

Ideally they do get a 1B/3B type and kick Groshans to AAA (ala Turner or Lee's prediction of Drury) as that really helps Cooper and Berti out and Groshans is likely a premium AAA replacement. We shall see.

So when you say "absurd prediction" please understand where that comes from. My guess is, once the other projection systems come out, it's all pretty similar and no one is expecting a 1 WAR platoon.

[lou]

Again, as I clearly just said, arreaz plays his non natural position incredibly well and isn’t a complete liability at 1b like reynolds is as one of the single worst defensive center fielders in baseball. Also, it’s the extent to which defensive metrics are weighted when calculating war that isn’t reliable, not necessarily the defensive metrics themselves for a lot of the metrics, though there are plenty of fielding metrics that aren’t reliable given the wild swings they have from year to year. Reynolds is a terrible defensive cf with or without metrics if you’ve ever actually watched him play center.

it’s pretty simple, arreaz bat is good enough to play him at 1st and really anywhere because the bat is tremendous and his glove is good at 1b whereas reynolds is one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball

And yet Reynolds is still a 3-4 WAR player at that defensive level, just like Arraez, so why do we care (also ignoring this would effectively be a 3-4+ WAR upgrade for Miami in CF as what do they have out there, and Arraez replacing Cooper would likely net 1-2 WAR as Cooper is not a nothing in production)? You simply cannot want Arraez and not want Reynolds which I'm trying if we are solely focusing on a bottom line.

But we got there!

I’d also do the deal for reynolds this year given that the price should be lower and it wouldn’t involve giving up the farm for a guy who doesn’t fill the long term need in cf. I just wouldn’t expect him to be in cf for very long

Price won't be lower with this market. Mitch Haniger just got 3/$43.5m. That's more expensive than Garcia which is insane. All these club controlled guys not traded at the deadline aren't losing value with these prices.

And yes, this has *always* been the point defensively. He is a CF lifeboat and they need someone else. They get Reynolds now as he HITS, get him a true CF platoon partner immediately (ideally Kiermaier), and the OF distribution is:

LF - Reynolds 100+ / DLC and friends 60+
CF - Kiermaier 100 + / Reynolds takes the rest
RF - Garcia 90-140 games depending on what he does / DLC and friends take the rest

Let's do that. It's full time work for Reynolds, the appropriate RHP platoon for Kiermaier, and Garcia and the assortment of LFers have roughly 225 starts to split between them in a friendly competition. This would be smart.

To note - no good longterm CF are coming in post-2023 FA marketplace. This must be a trade whether it's Reynolds/1 year defensive stop gaps to help, or ponying up to Arizona, etc. Your idea of blowing out for Buxton also I can be on board with

[Namaste]

Judge gets 9 years/$360 from Yankees

[lou]

Why on Earth would the Marlins even be interested in Bellinger and Bell? (or Turner for that matter.) I reiiiiiiiiiterate: the only ticket north in the future is a huge move ... Alcantara to Dodgers! Trading any of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Perez, Eder, Fulton would be nuts at this time. With the exception of Rogers, all the others will grow hugely in value if they merely match last year's level of performance. I don't know why they shouldn't do just that. I also believe that Rogers can rediscover his control, Remember: CF, 3B, SS or 2B, 1B, C and a corner OF are all huge needs.

Bellinger is a CF reclamation project, and if they fall out of contention could be a marvelous trade asset. He would have been a good bet.

Bell, I could be on board with if they trade Cooper and still address CF/SS and any MLB SP they traded, but this is tougher unless he's the final piece. They need larger investments at SS and CF first.

Turner (and Drury) would be perfect platoon 3B and 1B starters and they could have a really nice mix of getting Cooper, Turner, and Berti each 100+ starts, keeping all of them pretty fresh and healthy optimistically. Maybe Longoria fits in here too if he can't find a bench contender job. This makes sense as it builds depth and gets Groshans/LeBlanc to AAA for 2023.


Trading Sandy is a ticket SOUTH Lee. There is no realm one can replace a 4-5 WAR SP signed for 5 years extremely below market value. Likewise, if your idea is to get Busch, Cartaya, Pages, etc. Please note those guys would be replacing effectively Cooper, one of Fortes/Stallings, and one of the Marlins cheap AAA OFers. Those guys, while not world beaters, are going to get you minimum 3, maybe 4+ WAR. So effectively, you are trading Sandy, moving those other guys for prospects, and you're down 7-8+ WAR in this transaction. All those Dodgers guys being 3+ WAR players barely moves the needle here as that is how good Sandy is combined with nominal production from others, so someone will legitimately have to be a star in that trade package for this to make sense and then they'd have to invest Sandy's money into a big player. Giving the going rate ($15-17m for a normal 2 WAR guy in FA these days), I don't see how in a best case scenario where you hit on every Dodgers guy (which they won't) and then sign a normal 2 WAR guy is more than a 2-3 win improvement. Right now, they need probably 8+ to get into low end contender status. This is a beyond bad idea.

The only huge needs to contend in 2023 are CF, SS, and a RHP bullpen arm, as well as a 1B/3B can definitely be addressed in a platoon role. Yea those guys need to be like combined 8+WAR players, but it is doable. Let's not over complicate things and try and replace a cy young winner with prospects.

[fish16]

Just so you know where that comes from:

FGDC 2023
Berti 469 PA 1.6 WAR
Groshans 217 PA .8 WAR

Steamer 2023
Berti 489 PA 1.6 WAR
Groshans 198 PA .8 WAR

They also have LeBlanc as above replacement level if someone gets hurt, and Wendle/Rojas (as one of them at minimum is the backup SS so they'll get *some* 3B time more than likely as 1.7-2 WAR players at roughly 475-550 PA).

For perspective (and yes I know innings were played at some other positions, but we're not talking a drastic defensive weight difference 2B/3B versus kicking out to RF, etc.):

Actual 2022
Berti 404 PA 2.3 WAR
Groshans 65 PA 0.0 WAR
LeBlanc 169 PA .9 WAR
(and Wendle/Rojas were well above replacement level)

FWIW, I think it's reasonable to project Berti decreases his production (which is what FGDC/Steamer are projecting, and pretty notably in fact) and Groshans takes a little step forward. Practically, I think Berti may be sold a little short here though (not much though) and Groshans is a bit too optimistic to effectively play at a 2+ WAR rate right away. But this grouping is ultimately unspectacularly solid on paper, but there is some upside if Berti does run absolutely wild again and Groshans inches up his slugging over .400, etc.

Ideally they do get a 1B/3B type and kick Groshans to AAA (ala Turner or Lee's prediction of Drury) as that really helps Cooper and Berti out and Groshans is likely a premium AAA replacement. We shall see.

So when you say "absurd prediction" please understand where that comes from. My guess is, once the other projection systems come out, it's all pretty similar and no one is expecting a 1 WAR platoon.

Im aware you where you get your projections. Do you ever take any inventory on how off they are every single year? All of your projections are based on something that is consistently wrong. Perhaps stop blindly following projections and look at actual stats and project forward yourself. I would be surprised if groshans had a positive war next year. Same with Leblanc to a lesser extent. And given how much you overhype berti, you can get ready for him to have a year that doesnt meet your expectations either.

[fish16]

And yet Reynolds is still a 3-4 WAR player at that defensive level, just like Arraez, so why do we care (also ignoring this would effectively be a 3-4+ WAR upgrade for Miami in CF as what do they have out there, and Arraez replacing Cooper would likely net 1-2 WAR as Cooper is not a nothing in production)? You simply cannot want Arraez and not want Reynolds which I'm trying if we are solely focusing on a bottom line.

But we got there!




Price won't be lower with this market. Mitch Haniger just got 3/$43.5m. That's more expensive than Garcia which is insane. All these club controlled guys not traded at the deadline aren't losing value with these prices.

And yes, this has *always* been the point defensively. He is a CF lifeboat and they need someone else. They get Reynolds now as he HITS, get him a true CF platoon partner immediately (ideally Kiermaier), and the OF distribution is:

LF - Reynolds 100+ / DLC and friends 60+
CF - Kiermaier 100 + / Reynolds takes the rest
RF - Garcia 90-140 games depending on what he does / DLC and friends take the rest

Let's do that. It's full time work for Reynolds, the appropriate RHP platoon for Kiermaier, and Garcia and the assortment of LFers have roughly 225 starts to split between them in a friendly competition. This would be smart.

To note - no good longterm CF are coming in post-2023 FA marketplace. This must be a trade whether it's Reynolds/1 year defensive stop gaps to help, or ponying up to Arizona, etc. Your idea of blowing out for Buxton also I can be on board with

That's not an absurd price for haniger. He's been a really good hitter every year of his career. He has a career OPS+ of 123 in a bad hitters ballpark.

Reynolds price will certainly be lower than the ridiculous haul they were asking for last year, which was my main contention the entire time, not that he was a bad player, just that they were treating him like Juan soto. He's coming off a year that was a full 3.2 WAR less than 2021 according to the holy god of fangraphs, and his defense was significantly worse than 2021 in Center. And he has a year less of team control. The free agent contracts are out of control every year. He still isnt cheap, but he is of course less valuable this offseason compared to last.