2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Erick]

Berti’s had nice spurts but he’s also had stretches of not hitting at all. He had a .570 .OPS in the 2nd half last year. Definitely seems like a guy who tires out after starting for long stretches. He is what he is; a decent bench player.

Profar provides more stability as a hitter with his above average walk rate/contact skills, and I would much rather have him if we can afford him.

Obviously money would not be equal, but a lot of that also has to do with Profar being valued higher (because he’s better).

[lou]

I still feel like another pitcher for hitter trade should be made. I’m cool with this one, but I would like another one.

1 of Cabrera, Rogers, or Garrett can be traded for further help in the lineup, and maybe the hitter can fit in to make the defensive alignment make more sense.

Frankly, throw in Garrett Cooper as I’d much rather have Arraez play 1B than 2B. It would be great to add another middle infielder (or a CF’er and move Jazz back to the middle infield, idc either way).

If they do that and add another bullpen arm or two, I don’t mind the team.

Also, Berti isn’t better than Profar btw.

If they sign Wacha to replace any of the top 6 SP moved, that would work. But they can't lose any other innings without bringing someone else in steady to replace. And yes, another bullpen righty would be great to kick "Nance" to AAA.

Arraez at 1B versus 2B is not something I can get behind. Arraez is vastly superior at 2B as the hitting bar is much lower. He's also been a fine defender there since 2020. The Marlins are moving their best player to make this happen, so they get it IMO.

I agree about Profar, he has a lot more upside. Berti had his career year, but he's still solid.

[lou]

Berti and Profar had essentially the same WAR last year (2.3 and 2.5)

Profar will cost more, no?

Profar will cost 3-4x more over at least 1 more guaranteed year. He's fine. Berti is also fine. Profar is more of a poor man's Arraez though, he's not really a competitive roster spot to Berti who is more of a 2B/3B option who can dabble at SS/CF.

It all depends on what the Marlins are going to do here.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez
Wendle
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz
Garcia
Soler

This is 12 guys. What's the biggest problem here? That's a genuine question. I don't know the answer. They can add whoever to this as they have everything covered (besides arguably a backup CF).

Is it another CF who can hit left handers (Michael Taylor)?
Getting a longterm SS which gets you more Arraez in LF as Wendle would handle more RHP IF work (Amed Rosario)?
Needing a star (Bryan Reynolds)?
Cheap(er) free agent that's flexible to allow the team to radically move around every position all year (Jurickson Profar)?
Just signing 3 DH's again because that worked last year (Gurriel)
Is it two of those above and ditching one of Cooper/Wendle/Berti/Sanchez to make it happen?

If Reynolds is cost prohibitive, I might say do 3 things here - Rosario, M. Taylor, and Gurriel, and ship out Cooper and Wendle to make it happen. 1B might be a disaster, but Wendle/Cooper should net out most of Rosario/Taylor prospect wise so you've barely paid anything for them and just pray to god Gurriell is good enough (even if a platoon, he is a LHP hitting heavy guy so weaker side), or reluctantly just play Arraez at 1B, Segura at 2B, and Berti 3B. You can always just move Jazz back also and Taylor is a major defensive CF and fine out there.

Lots of options *still.*

[lou]

Fangraphs sides with Minnesota - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twin...had-to-happen/

Not a surprise. This is pretty spot on.

[Namaste]

Fangraphs sides with Minnesota - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twin...had-to-happen/

Not a surprise. This is pretty spot on.

Thanks for posting that. Two comments:

Although the writer sides with the Twins, he admits the Marlins got “the best player in the deal”.

The writer says if it was a one for one, the Marlins won the trade. If Salas becomes a very good major leaguer we obviously got crushed here but it’s more unlikely that likely.

[Namaste]

Dan O’Dowd of MLB Network (whose opinion means a lot to me) thinks the Marlins won this trade.

[rmc523]

Profar will cost 3-4x more over at least 1 more guaranteed year. He's fine. Berti is also fine. Profar is more of a poor man's Arraez though, he's not really a competitive roster spot to Berti who is more of a 2B/3B option who can dabble at SS/CF.

It all depends on what the Marlins are going to do here.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez
Wendle
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz
Garcia
Soler

This is 12 guys. What's the biggest problem here? That's a genuine question. I don't know the answer. They can add whoever to this as they have everything covered (besides arguably a backup CF).

Is it another CF who can hit left handers (Michael Taylor)?
Getting a longterm SS which gets you more Arraez in LF as Wendle would handle more RHP IF work (Amed Rosario)?
Needing a star (Bryan Reynolds)?
Cheap(er) free agent that's flexible to allow the team to radically move around every position all year (Jurickson Profar)?
Just signing 3 DH's again because that worked last year (Gurriel)
Is it two of those above and ditching one of Cooper/Wendle/Berti/Sanchez to make it happen?

If Reynolds is cost prohibitive, I might say do 3 things here - Rosario, M. Taylor, and Gurriel, and ship out Cooper and Wendle to make it happen. 1B might be a disaster, but Wendle/Cooper should net out most of Rosario/Taylor prospect wise so you've barely paid anything for them and just pray to god Gurriell is good enough (even if a platoon, he is a LHP hitting heavy guy so weaker side), or reluctantly just play Arraez at 1B, Segura at 2B, and Berti 3B. You can always just move Jazz back also and Taylor is a major defensive CF and fine out there.

Lots of options *still.*

I think Taylor got traded didn’t he?

[lou]

Thanks for posting that. Two comments:

Although the writer sides with the Twins, he admits the Marlins got “the best player in the deal”.

The writer says if it was a one for one, the Marlins won the trade. If Salas becomes a very good major leaguer we obviously got crushed here but it’s more unlikely that likely.

There is definitely value attributed to a prospect regardless if they work out longterm. Salas has value, he's good whether he remains an 80-100 overall prospect guy, or slips into the nether region of being a preferred 45+ and around 125ish. Marlins used that to overpay here as clearly the Twins didn't want to move Arraez unless they got a real good deal (which they did IMO).

But keeping Arraez at 2B is legitimately huge (is he a 4 WAR player at 2B? Look how bad 2B are in baseball, the bat and neutral defense could carry him there. Jeff McNeil had a 5.9 WAR last year playing 3/4ths the time at 2B. Arraez does that, the Marlins are going to smoke the Twins here as Pablo doesn't have that upside even if he is very good), so long as Jazz can in fact man CF well enough. Plus, there is buy out potential for Arraez. They should both be running to lock in 5/$55 and bonus points for a 6th year club option. Do that, and get the added 2 years of some surplus value, and that quickly balances out Salas here, etc. 5 years of Arraez even at some big costs in a few years is much better than 3. To note, Pablo will cost the Twins $90m to extend so the Twins don't really get this potential benefit here. Maybe that's the reason the Marlins had to chuck in a real quality second player, the Twins had an idea of what he'd take in a deal, so they pitched Arraez value on the anticipated extension deal versus the 3 arbitration years, etc. This deal makes complete sense if you think about it like that. That's what I'm hoping for here. We get the extension news at the press conference.

This isn't a hate immediately for me like Yelich was, I am lukewarm and disappointed it was Salas (even Cappe would have been better here more than likely), but I am fascinated by this quick move for Jazz and potential Arraez extension. Either Jazz solving CF or the extension being announced before the all-star break works for me.

Still need another upgrade though. Works not done.

[lou]

I think Taylor got traded didn’t he?

It was rumored they wanted a FV50 P prospect for him, I think from Minnesota, and Minnesota hung up pretty quickly when they asked for that. That's like KC asking for Meyer, just some silly shit on KC's end. I think he's available, but they have some delusions right now if they expect something more than "Amaya" or "Edwards" or "Groshans" at best, and that's probably stretching it.

That being said, he is *perfect* for Jazz in CF. Hits lefties and superior defense.

[lou]

Man Fangraphs is fast - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

Scaled the team up another win. They do have Arraez as a 4 WAR primary 2B, and Jazz a 3.2 WAR primary CF. So if Arraez does scale that much up at 2B, my disappointment of Salas goes away quickly (especially with an Arraez extension). Still 5+ more WAR to go to Philly. This would get them there.

Rosario -- > prospects
M. Taylor -- > Trade Wendle to Boston, Boston prospects to KC
Bednar --- > prospects. No Reynolds, just Bednar. Or really any other 1 WAR reliever club controlled.
FA Wacha
Trade - Any of Scott/Okert/Bleier

This comps to Philly as a 43+ WAR team..... it's probably $105-107m payroll

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez
Rosario
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz, M. Taylor
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Rogers, Cabrera/Wacha
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha/Cabrera
Garrett, two of Scott/Okert/Bleier

AAA - Groshans, Amaya, Edwards, Bleday, Nance, Sixto..... and Eury and Eder


This would be great if they could pull this off + extensions for Arraez and Rosario

[fish16]

Man Fangraphs is fast - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

Scaled the team up another win. They do have Arraez as a 4 WAR primary 2B, and Jazz a 3.2 WAR primary CF. So if Arraez does scale that much up at 2B, my disappointment of Salas goes away quickly (especially with an Arraez extension). Still 5+ more WAR to go to Philly. This would get them there.

Rosario -- > prospects
M. Taylor -- > Trade Wendle to Boston, Boston prospects to KC
Bednar --- > prospects. No Reynolds, just Bednar. Or really any other 1 WAR reliever club controlled.
FA Wacha
Trade - Any of Scott/Okert/Bleier

This comps to Philly as a 43+ WAR team..... it's probably $105-107m payroll

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez
Rosario
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz, M. Taylor
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Rogers, Cabrera/Wacha
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha/Cabrera
Garrett, two of Scott/Okert/Bleier

AAA - Groshans, Amaya, Edwards, Bleday, Nance, Sixto..... and Eury and Eder


This would be great if they could pull this off + extensions for Arraez and Rosario

Rosario and Michael Taylor couldn’t be further from reality. Rosario is a mediocre player on a 1 year deal
who absolutely shouldn’t get a long term deal. If we give him a long term deal it’s dumb. There a reason why he hasn’t gotten a long term deal


michael Taylor similarly sucks. Despite whatever stats that show that Michael Taylor isn’t terrible, he is awful and has been his entire career

[fish16]

Man Fangraphs is fast - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

Scaled the team up another win. They do have Arraez as a 4 WAR primary 2B, and Jazz a 3.2 WAR primary CF. So if Arraez does scale that much up at 2B, my disappointment of Salas goes away quickly (especially with an Arraez extension). Still 5+ more WAR to go to Philly. This would get them there.

Rosario -- > prospects
M. Taylor -- > Trade Wendle to Boston, Boston prospects to KC
Bednar --- > prospects. No Reynolds, just Bednar. Or really any other 1 WAR reliever club controlled.
FA Wacha
Trade - Any of Scott/Okert/Bleier

This comps to Philly as a 43+ WAR team..... it's probably $105-107m payroll

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez
Rosario
Segura, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
Jazz, M. Taylor
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Rogers, Cabrera/Wacha
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha/Cabrera
Garrett, two of Scott/Okert/Bleier

AAA - Groshans, Amaya, Edwards, Bleday, Nance, Sixto..... and Eury and Eder


This would be great if they could pull this off + extensions for Arraez and Rosario

The fact that you never realize how ridiculous and how terrible your war projections are on a yearly basis make your posts worthless. You take 0 stock ever on how terrible either your projections or the projections you rely on are

[fish16]

Jon Berti is better than Jurickson Profar.

lol.

[fish16]

Even the idea of trading wendle plus prospects for Rosario is so fucking stupid

[sports24/7]

After everything that happened today, the next move has to be for a SS if they're serious about making this team competitive, right? Unless you are really high on Amaya, you don't really have anyone on the team or close in the system capable of being an everyday SS. It's a premium position, but it should be easier to find one of those than it would be to find a good CF at this point, and I hope that's the plan, and why Jazz was moved to CF. I'd be looking for a Brandon Marsh type asset that was once seen as having big upside, but their value has depressed a bit.