2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[emkayseven]

According to fishstripes BA was one of just 27 players to ever play 6+ years for the Marlins. Just absurd. This team is misery

[lou]

I'll split this into 2 posts. Its pretty easy to go to your page, find your posts, and search by WAR. takes about 2 minutes. And you can do the same to me. I've said plenty of wildly wrong shit, but i at least learn from why i was wrong and adjust my thinking, such as thinking this team had a solid capable lineup full of decent hitters going into last year when in reality they have a single impact hitter throughout their entire organization.

Stallings failing is not unexpected. When you rely on players to contribute whose value is completely defensive dependent, you get huge variations from year to year, especially catchers whose value is completely reliant on things like pitch framing, which was a really dumb thing to invest in considering the change to automated strike zone eventually, and considering that their true need was impact talent, not a jeff mathis clone. It is not at all unexpected that a terrible hitter stayed terrible and his defense fluctuated. He was a stupid guy to acquire and it was obvious last year when i said so.

Aguilar was also not unexpected. He should have been non-tendered and the 10 million he was due reinvested in the bullpen. Corner infielders and outfielders are the easiest thing to find year in and year out and they are found in free agency for dirt cheap consistently. Garcia being terrible was also not unexpected. His entire career has been completely volatile. I made the same argument when you wanted him back in 2019. He is especially volatile.

My biggest argument with you for years has been your insistence on relying on clearly absurd projections of WAR, and especially defensively driven valuation of WAR. I've been pretty clear that i think WAR is a hugely flawed stat that produces way too much value on defense. Your lineup projections based on WAR without taking into consideration how that WAR is produced leads to the terrible lineups we have trotted out there. And yes, there is a difference in the actual winning impact of defensive WAR vs offensive WAR and how that impacts how good a team actually is.

Baseball is an incredibly volatile sport full of wild fluctuations, specifically for mid level, non star talent. The most reliable thing is impact-level hitting talent and high level pitching talent. Their will be fluctuations, but there are incredibly few bellingers but a hell of a lot of avisail garcias. You can find defensive driven WAR, the hardest thing to do find consistent impact hitters that you can rely on year in and year out. You might get a lucky garcia or soler season, but you cant count on that. This team has 0 impact talent other than Jazz. they need to acquire at least 2 more star-level hitters, and they have 0 in their system.

I feel this year and the 88 wins/finally giving up on Brinson has changed your perspective, however I maintain you were too much a homer, and now too negative, and it's that leveling off into the middle which is where you need to get. Also I didn't really want Aguilar, and never after Soler, so not sure what that's about. Also, the corner players are cheap narrative may be over in a world Joc/Rizzo are getting $19 and 20m bucks. Let's see what Gallo, Bell, and Drury get. I suspect we all think it's "too much money." That's a wait and see.

As for projections, go to fangraphs and blame the composite of all the projection systems. Frankly, they are smarter than all of us and we should defer to their expertise. It doesn't mean they are always right, but maybe I overvalue them as the gospel. That being said, how else is one to figure out how to get a small market team to a projection to fight and claw to 87 wins?

Also with this whole let's blame all the things on defensive value thing, currently fangraphs thinks this:

Great Defensively - Stallings, Rojas
Good - Fortes
Slightly Above Average - Wendle
Neutral(ish) - Jazz, Groshans, J. Sanchez, Bleday, LeBlanc
Slightly Below Average - Berti
Bad - DLC, Garcia
Hide the women and children - Soler and Cooper

I'm not sure about Berti here, he should probably go up, and Bleday/LeBlanc at minimum go down a peg, but overall this translates into a pretty MEH defensive team that has a good catcher and platoon infielder, neutral 2B/3B/LF situations, and lord help you for the rest. Suggesting there is a defensive driven bump here isn't accurate. This team is currently projecting as a below average offense, and the defense isn't propping themselves up here to get there.

I agree with they need 2 all star talents if we want to consider this a back end top 10 position core. Correa and an Arizona CF would get them there. Rosario, Arizona CF, and upgrading Cooper (or I guess LF or C) could also get you there but more limited margin of error. I'm not sitting around here asking for Kiermaier and Andrelton Simmons 2015 ya know.

[fish16]

According to fishstripes BA was one of just 27 players to ever play 6+ years for the Marlins. Just absurd. This team is misery

That’s honestly a lot more than I would have thought have played 6 years here

[lou]

The way this team will be built to win is on cost controlled, impact level talent. They have it with the rotation, they need 2-3 more in the lineup. The way to get that is not by trading cost controlled guys like rogers at their lowest value, it's by trading soon to be expensive guys or guys who will soon be free agents who have value and who you wont sign long term at a value. It's how the rays remain competitive with their low payroll annually. And by sticking to that plan, it's how you allow yourselves the budget to sign missing pieces for decent money and low years when you identify a need (See charlie morton and corey kluber).

And yes, i admit i get things wrong all the time. The brewers trade and brinson was a huge whiff, and i was way off on the impact level hitting this team had going into last year, or at the very least how deep the lineup was with competent hitters (.700 to .800 OPS guys). Everyone who comes here falls off a cliff or underperforms for whatever reason. You take those past failures and you adapt your thinking over time to how this team should be built.

hat's the entire reason i keep harping on your love of defensive driven WAR guys who cant hit the broad side of a barn. Wendle, Rojas, Stallings, Berti, are not major league starters for good teams, and their value is entirely defensive (berti's speed is valuable too but not enough to justify his terrible hitting). They are good utility guys or bench bats or at the very least 8-9 hitters on good teams, but if you look at the best teams, they have star-level hitting talent all throughout their lineup. We dont have a single Yordan, Bregman, Correa, Acuna, Albies, Harper, Lindor, Olson, Freeman, Turner, Betts. The best teams have 3+ of those type of guys who can carry a lineup.

And we have a single good hitter in the entire lineup. You can keep making WAR projections all you want, but when they are all defensively driven valuations, you will end up with what we had the last 5 years- terrible lineups 1-9 and WAR's that might look good on paper, but add up to the worst lineup in baseball. You have not made a single analytical adjustment in your WAR projections and what that means for how good they actually are as a complete lineup. Stop using defensively driven WAR to make valuations on how close this team is. As of right now, this team is a really bad team, with a good rotation, terrible lineup, and a bullpen full of decent relievers without a closer. It's not a sky is falling overreaction, it's an adjustment of thinking of what this team needs to be competitive, and how far away they are to actually getting what they need.

Disagree on Marlins pitcher value, don't need to get into it. They are all fine. We all "love" the Rays, yet they never win. They aren't the model. Cleveland is run better. Let's be Cleveland who spends like Milwaukee. A larger media market in Miami should be able to do that right? This may be splitting hairs however.

See above defensive driven WAR.

Also, I don't disagree the Marlins have a collection of low end starts/bench bats. That is a blessing and curse you know. See below. They may be able to get "a lot" of production from guys 7-17 on the roster, and yea they need two friends for Jazz at the top and then for hitters 4-5-6 (Garcia, Soler, Cooper) to do something.

For perspective, Phillies bats 7-17 (Bohm, Stott, Sosa, Maton, Marsh, Stubbs, Herrera, Hall, Carmargo, Vierling, and Didi) had cumulatively 6 WAR last year. Current projections for Marlins 7-17 bats (Rendle OR Wendle, Berti, DLC, Stallings, Fortes, Groshans, J. Sanchez, LeBlanc, Bleday, Burdick, T. Johnston/Edwards) are 9.9 WAR next year. This is a HUGE deal to effectively have *on paper* 4 more WAR coming from the back of your roster.

So let's look at the top 6 for the Phillies (Realmuto, Harper, Hoskins, Schwarber, Castellanos, Segura) - 14.7 WAR. Marlins current 2023 projection of Jazz, ____, ____, Garcia, Soler, and Cooper is 7.3 WAR for those 4 guys. HUGE difference here, but it's also 6 players versus 4. I do realize Harper was hurt and Castellanos is better than he played so the Phillies could really add some OOPH here quickly (but I do think Realmuto/Schwarber slow down a little next year, but still), but this really goes without saying the Marlins need those 2 bats you mentioned. And they need to be good. Worst case, they can easily match the Phillies back 10 guys and Fangraphs is over-projecting that back of the roster, so getting two guys that get to 5+ WAR makes this a pretty close comparison on lineups even if the Phillies are better. Cue - holy shit just sign Correa and drop that 5 WAR projection on this with any Arizona CF and this offense may be really good that quickly. They need that OOMPH and some health.

So yea, maybe this is all wrong and Garcia and Stallings are negatives again, but I doubt it. They will be better and expecting them to be 1 WAR players isn't great but it's adding wins quickly here.

We're ultimately on the same page - 2 really good bats and a reliever. And I do think you agree they need some other kind of 4/5 SP or bulk reliever if they trade any MLB level starting pitcher.

That's the offseason. Who are these names? They are closing than people think, but these 2 bat names and 1-3 other subsidiary players need to be real good. 7+ WAR between them good. Hence, cue Correa again holy shit Bruce just do it.

[lou]

I think the Marlins would have had more interest in him in a trade rather than FA now that he'll get there. I'd definitely have interest in him as a reclamation project, though.

I think it's the opposite, trading for him means that $18m arbitration award. It was going to be huge. He'll be cheaper in free agency.

He's worth it if the price is right and he's healthy, but I think he gets $10-12 with escalators. Maybe even a two year deal with an opt out after one ala Soler to buy him some insurance.

I would still rather just trade pitching for Rosario and Arizona CF, and use money to extend Rosario and sign stop-gap SP to bridge to Eury/Eder/Fulton.

[lou]

Woke up and thought of another way to rephrase.

Phillies 2023 squad projected to be 23.2 WAR for their best 16 hitters next year (core lineup + injury replacements). They have room for 1 more guy for their top 17, likely a 2B/SS starter or a platoon option. Depending on their budget. So this likely scales for 25-27 WAR depending on what they do.

Marlins are 17.2 + two starting players. Rosario and Alek Thomas projections would add 5.3 WAR, so the Marlins get to 22.5 WAR projection land, which would be a very solid position core. That's not the Phillies, but it's not nothing. That projects as an above average squad pretty quickly based on what actually has happened in 2022/2021. Get Correa instead or Rosario, and the Phillies may be 1-2 wins better on offense.

Phillies staff plus a few injury replacements coming out to be 17.3 WAR. And they could potentially add a SP here budget permitting. Marlins staff plus a few injury replacements coming out to be 16.7 WAR, plus likely at least 1 RP to add. This is basically keeping it even between them. This is keeping Pablo, so obviously this is difficult if you pull him out (2.8) and have to add others as this is going down. I do have a problem with these SP totals though, as Sandy is behind Nola/Wheeler in production, Luzardo and Garrett are projected to do worse at more innings, and they are underselling the bullpen even if they aren't world beaters.

So overall, absent the Phillies really going for it again and signing one of the massive SS and a 2+ WAR SP, the Marlins get pretty close to them "nickel and diming" some combo like Rosario/Thomas onto the team with 1-2 stop-gap arms, whether that be a SP/bulk reliever or RP.

The projection is still behind the Phillies, and then we get to the homerism - fuck all this shit and Jazz (3.5), Sandy (3.7), Luzardo (2), Cabrera (1.4), Garcia (1.2), All Lefty relievers (1.1), and Floro/Chargois (.3) are each adding .5-1 WAR win more to those totals, and Eury is coming to kill everyone, that's where the extra 5+ wins are. I can buy this TBH. I'd take the over at minimum from this group at least.

That gives you a plausible way to 87 wins if everything cuts right.

This is a rinse/repeat of last offseason, where we can then point out - why not just eliminate this margin of error and have to count on big years from your 2 stars and some modest gains from 4-5 other position groups, sign Correa/Turner, use minor league arms for the Arizona OF and keep Pablo so no downturn there, and very, very quickly you get this team to being a contender on paper that can sustain some injuries.


Just saying here, whether you agree with these projections or not, the front office is using them or something similar. If they go in a different direction, say keep Rojas AND Wendle and jettison Cooper instead and upgrade 1B/CF only, it's effectively the same amount of production they need to make up (minimum 5 WAR, ideally 7+), and that gets them to a "fighting chance if everything cuts right."

Considering BRUCE is in charge, I think we expect/hope for the minimum, and be happy if they do something more.

Frankly, any sane owner would see this team and add Correa/Turner/Xander and Nimmo (or trade for the Arizona CF or Mullins and sign a SP for a year, etc.), and then trade good minor leaguers for a good reliever (Bednar). That team projects for 43-44+ WAR (this does not include Jazz/Sandy and friends beating their projections either so there is some real upside here and not much downside as there is legitimate depth and not everyone else is contributing too much individually) and would be roughly $125m which is well well below league average. That is the team Sandy deserves to lead and why this whole exercise is infuriating as they are THIS close to having something on paper that works and after being the cheapest team for decades, why not seize this opportunity right now? It's not like we're talking add $100m payroll here, they could do this adding under $40m if they are really smart about this (Sign Correa, Trade Pablo CC CF, sign Stop-Gap SP, trade for controlled reliever, etc.) This is why I keep saying, the sky isn't falling. They are 3-4 shrewd moves from having a team you can legitimately say has a real playoff chance now, and is really set up for success for the next 4 years considering the arms here and coming.

[Lee Stone]

With the exceptions of Jazz starting in the MI and Berti and Fortes coming off the bench, there's not a single current Marlin that I want to watch next season.

[sports24/7]

I think it's the opposite, trading for him means that $18m arbitration award. It was going to be huge. He'll be cheaper in free agency.

He's worth it if the price is right and he's healthy, but I think he gets $10-12 with escalators. Maybe even a two year deal with an opt out after one ala Soler to buy him some insurance.

I would still rather just trade pitching for Rosario and Arizona CF, and use money to extend Rosario and sign stop-gap SP to bridge to Eury/Eder/Fulton.

I suppose if he’s going to take a prove it deal, which he could. But also, I could totally see someone giving him a longterm deal, which Miami will have no interest in.

[Lee Stone]

Brandon Drury would be a nice free agent signing. Probably expensive, though, since he's better than Garcia and Soler were when the Marlins signed them. Added note: MLBTraderumors actually projects 2 years and 9 million per for Drury, who had a 2.8 WAR in just over 500 ab for Padres last season.

[emkayseven]

With the exceptions of Jazz starting in the MI and Berti and Fortes coming off the bench, there's not a single current Marlin that I want to watch next season.

Sandy? Cabrera?

[fish16]

I suppose if he’s going to take a prove it deal, which he could. But also, I could totally see someone giving him a longterm deal, which Miami will have no interest in.

Why would someone give him a long term deal after two of the worst years imaginable? If you look at his career, it’s one great year another decent year, and terribleness the rest of the years

[Lee Stone]

Sandy? Cabrera?

I was focused on players, not pitchers. Sorry, thought that was apparent.

[sports24/7]

Why would someone give him a long term deal after two of the worst years imaginable? If you look at his career, it’s one great year another decent year, and terribleness the rest of the years

Why would someone give Avi Garcia a longterm deal when he’s never had any year as good as Bellinger has? Why would anyone give Jorge Soler a longterm contract when he’s been replacement level or worse every year except one? Teams are stupid, and desperate, so they talk themselves into the notion that they’ll get the good, and not the bad.

[emkayseven]

I don't imagine anyone giving Bellinger more than a 2 year deal and even then, maybe an opt-out after year 1. And I don't see Bellinger signing a long-term deal somewhere. On the back of his insane season he'll never struggle to at least find cheap one year contracts, I have to imagine that he bets on himself and goes somewhere on a one-year deal to try and improve.

[rmc523]

The powers at be finally made a good broadcasting decision. JP Arencibia was let go. Apparently they'll stick with the rotation of analysts, but he won't be one of them. I actually really liked Rod Allen. I'd like to see more of him. Gabby Sanchez and Jeff Nelson are kind of meh, but Allen and Hutton are good. I just wish they could find a good play by play guy. Severino seems like a good guy, but he's hard to listen to at times going overboard on shilling for the team, and is really corny.

They really just need to bring Rich back as the play-by-play guy, and they can have the rotation of the analysts still.