2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Xavier Edwards ... I like Nasim Nunez a lot better. (Esp with new rule limiting number of tosses to bases to hold runners.)

[lou]

Besides the obvious hole in CF, they definitely need to address 1B and LF. Those would seem to be the most obvious places to add 3 bats to the lineup (assuming you stay in house at SS/3B). You cannot go into another season counting on Cooper. I suppose Jerar can also play that position, but this would seem to indicate they’ll be in the market for someone (Abreu? Mancini? Trade).

LF is another area of concern. I could see them wanting to give DLC another look after how he finished the season, but they could definitely upgrade there. I’d also argue to upgrade RF and DH, but unless they can unload either Garcia or Soler, they probably are stuck there for now and have to hope both bounce back.

The new Steamer 2023 projections came out, and it roughly comes out as this:

C - Fortes/Stallings platoon (3 WAR)
1B - Cooper (1.5 WAR)
2B - Jazz (3.5 WAR)
SS - _____ + It likes Rojas/Wendle as 1.6-2 WAR players. Defensive floor. We'll call 1 of them the primary IF backup (1 WAR)
3B - Berti/Groshans/LeBlanc platoon + 2nd bench infielder (2.5 WAR)
LF - DLC + Sanchez/Bleday platoon (2 WAR)
CF - _____
RF - Garcia (1 WAR)
DH - Soler (1 WAR)
=15.5 WAR

To me, this seems like over-achieving at catcher, under-achieving at 2B, and I think the 1B/3B/OF/DH situation balances each other out if we want to argue someone is negligibly high or low. This is a pretty reasonable overall projection IMO. Of course, there is a real disgusting floor here, but I do think Garcia/Soler will be better, Cooper is definitely solid when healthy, and there was some LF growth closer to the end of the year. The 3B situation is going to be fine. Also, they likely won't be as injured. Kim is right - to an extent - the team was really hurt.

Middle of the pack position group was 18-19.8 WAR last year (that is Boston, Texas, Baltimore, Arizona, Tampa). Above average 21-24 WAR (Minnesota, San Diego, Philly, Cleveland, Seattle Milwaukee). The elite was effectively 29-38 WAR (Atlanta, Houston, Toronto, Mets, Cards, Yankees, Dodgers). This is pretty similar to 2021 where a 19 WAR position group was the middle.

So they need to add 3-5 WAR minimum, and even better if it's 5+. That's going to give them a fighting chance if the pitching holds up, just like the Padres, Phillies, Guardians, and Mariners. Of course, I would love too a larger turnover and for them to get a 1B, SS, LF, and CF and all of those add up to 8-10+ win upgrades. But we have to be realistic and respect the payroll/youth.

I don't think they need a LF at all. They need to try out these kids and the price is right. They have shown enough promise and you can get corner players at the deadline. I am probably the biggest DLC critic, but that new swing end of the year showed some real statistical promise. I'm not out on Sanchez or Bleday yet either.

I do think they need a 1B as Cooper's health can't be trusted. This is where maybe the best idea is to trade Bleday/Sanchez for an equal value 1B/OF type (or maybe they are both under instruction to learn 1B this offseason to start 50 games there?), maybe just keep Anderson and have him play 1B/3B (Groshans and LeBlanc AAA) and hope he and Cooper can stay healthy not playing every day, or a larger dump trade where they swap Garcia/Soler with an equally as bad 1B contract. Or, Cooper is just moved for a RP and they get a more dedicated younger 1B who can play everyday. I think something like this will happen. I don't know which one. Frankly, it would be great if they could move Cooper to DH and play 100/40 DH/1B. This goes back to comments above - Soler is the worst signing. It just demolished the positional flexibility here. We'll see what they do, but something will give here. It would be great if it's a major move, but a minor one could equally be OK here and deal with 1B at the deadline if Cooper is a liability and the rest of the team is fine.

So this is where we say CORREA! TURNER!, trade a SP for an Arizona CF, sign 1-2 stop gap arms for a season (Clevinger? Eflin?) or pick up Bumgarner in a bad contract dump with Arizona (send them Garica/Soler depending on package), and that team is pretty good and absolutely works on paper. Or do the cheaper version of that and trade for A. Rosario instead of a mega SS. or Peraza and hope for an immediate explosion. These scenarios get them to floor minimum (when healthy) offense with some real upside.

To note - Steamer has the staff at 15.5 WAR also (Sandy 3.7), which is good for 14th overall entering next year and I think that could be notably low (See, Sandy). Trading Pablo would hurt here, but if they get an OK stopgap, 1 bullpen overachievement (ala Floro 2 years ago and Bass this year), and some modest gains from everyone else, it's only a small leap (20 WAR) to get to 6th-8th overall staff.

And that's the goal right? To be a 6th-8th staff, and slight above average offense, and all of a sudden you're a scary looking playoff team in short series with Sandy and friends. This is of course, absent a $150m payroll scenario where we should want more.

I'll keep saying it, the team is positioned well even with Garcia/Soler, but they really need those 2 last position player starter upgrades and to figure out some depth moves (See Cooper/1B above). Plus another SP if they do in fact trade one to accomplish SS or CF.

[lou]

Xavier Edwards ... I like Nasim Nunez a lot better. (Esp with new rule limiting number of tosses to bases to hold runners.)

Ok, but I'd like to point out they don't play the same position.

Edwards was a good opportunistic move. In fact, you can kind of see Nunez (SS/2B) and Edwards (2B/3B) being the infield backups in a few years with ideally Groshans starting at 3B.

[sports24/7]

The Garcia deal was worse. There was a chance that last year could've been one of Soler's "good years" then he opts out after one year and you get a good year out of him. To give Garcia 4 years, when he hasn't put together 2 good years in a row his entire career, was very dumb.

Both are bad. I'd say it's pretty close. They overpaid for Garcia, but at least that looked like the safer move as he'd been a solid player for most of his career. He had, by far, the worst year of his career last season. What we saw from Soler last season was essentially who he's been his entire career, save for the one outlier season in 2019. I hated that deal from the start because if he played well, I feel like it wouldn't have helped the team enough with their other deficiencies, and would have opted out. And if he had a year on par with most of his career, he'd stay on an overpriced deal.

[rmc523]

The Garcia deal was worse. There was a chance that last year could've been one of Soler's "good years" then he opts out after one year and you get a good year out of him. To give Garcia 4 years, when he hasn't put together 2 good years in a row his entire career, was very dumb.

Yeah, both deals were questionable at best.

[Namaste]

Both are bad. I'd say it's pretty close. They overpaid for Garcia, but at least that looked like the safer move as he'd been a solid player for most of his career. He had, by far, the worst year of his career last season. What we saw from Soler last season was essentially who he's been his entire career, save for the one outlier season in 2019. I hated that deal from the start because if he played well, I feel like it wouldn't have helped the team enough with their other deficiencies, and would have opted out. And if he had a year on par with most of his career, he'd stay on an overpriced deal.

Thanks for typing all that out. Precisely why I think the Soler deal is worse.

[lou]

Thanks for typing all that out. Precisely why I think the Soler deal is worse.

And it IGNORES they had Cooper and Aguilar already and a multitude of corner OF options (Garcia, Sanchez, DLC, with Anderson and Berti being able to pop out, and Bleday and Burdick coming). So let's beat that dead horse it makes no sense positionally also!

[sports24/7]

And it IGNORES they had Cooper and Aguilar already and a multitude of corner OF options (Garcia, Sanchez, DLC, with Anderson and Berti being able to pop out, and Bleday and Burdick coming). So let's beat that dead horse it makes no sense positionally also!

They convinced themselves Garcia or someone on the roster could play CF. And that's maybe their biggest problem outside of not spending money. When things don't go the way they want, they convince themselves the half-assed way could work out. Then when it doesn't, they make excuses about why it didn't. That leads to a cycle of making mistakes, and not learning from them, then repeating the mistakes. Rinse and repeat.

[lou]

They convinced themselves Garcia or someone on the roster could play CF. And that's maybe their biggest problem outside of not spending money. When things don't go the way they want, they convince themselves the half-assed way could work out. Then when it doesn't, they make excuses about why it didn't. That leads to a cycle of making mistakes, and not learning from them, then repeating the mistakes. Rinse and repeat.

Totally.

In their defense though, Sanchez was pretty OK out in CF, but absent him REALLY picking up the offense, he should be the 2nd option. Goes back to the above - all roads lead to a CF. DLC, Sanchez, Garcia, and CF, with Bleday first call up, and Soler/Berti being able to pop out in pinches is not a bad situation.

We'll see if they learn from the CF mistake. Because frankly, they don't even have any anywhere near being MLB ready. It just blows my mind they whiffed on all of Brinson, Harrison, Sierra, Scott, Misner, VVM, etc. Not even a backup. I guess Wendle is solid. Thanks Misner.

[Namaste]

Marlins are not renewing Glenn Geffner’s contract. This team is getting on my last nerve!

[Namaste]

Marlins are not renewing Glenn Geffner’s contract. This team is getting on my last nerve!

It wasn’t an accident that they did this the same day Sandy won the Cy Young.

[Namaste]

Sandy first unanimous Cy winner since 2014 Kershaw and I can’t fully enjoy it cause I’m so tilted about Geffner.

[sports24/7]

Marlins are not renewing Glenn Geffner’s contract. This team is getting on my last nerve!

As bad as this franchise is at team building, they might be worse with their broadcast decisions. Waltz and Hutton let go, and now this. If they had any sense, they’d have made Geffner the TV guy. Instead we get a hokey apologist in Severino, and an awful, obnoxious analyst in Arencibia. And I’m sure they’ll bring in some shitty radio guy now that kisses the ass of the team. So frustrating.

[Nick]

Yeah, I've been saying Geffner was the best broadcaster we had for years.

[Lee Stone]

If they stick with the gender theme, Kelly Saco will be doing color radio work, maybe teaming with Kyle Sielaff for play-by-play