2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Dodgers have 6 guys in the Top 100

they are the ideal franchise right now. pretty much top notch in every respect. despite spending a shit ton of money, they are still probably the best or 2nd best behind the rays at drafting and developing. It's not like they are all bottom fringe top 100 guys either, it's cartaya for mlb at 14, Miller at 24, Vargas at 37, Busch and Stone at 54 and 56, Pepiot at 70, Pages at 81. That's 7 in the top 100 for mlb.com.

[lou]

gotta be a typo for Berry. I'm guessing for Dax he is right off that list. Fangraphs is very often against the grain compared to the traditional lists, especially in the backend of the list.

It's definitely a typo for Berry. They say he is first in his draft class to break into the bigs. Mid-June 2024 as where I'd put him. After super 2.

I find it very probable Fulton and Meyer are strong FV45+ within next 10-20 guys and both enter the top 100 next year. They had Ian Lewis in that category in 2022 too but we'll see if he lasts as he didn't exactly set the worldd on fire. Watson should probably be here also but I can understand if they want to knock him down until he shows a little more.

Im interested in seeing where this Vargas guy that BP loves (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ma...ition=2B/3B/SS) ends up. Hopefully he is the next out of nowhere Cappe/Eury.

[fish16]

It's definitely a typo for Berry. They say he is first in his draft class to break into the bigs. Mid-June 2024 as where I'd put him. After super 2.

I find it very probable Fulton and Meyer are strong FV45+ within next 10-20 guys and both enter the top 100 next year. They had Ian Lewis in that category in 2022 too but we'll see if he lasts as he didn't exactly set the worldd on fire. Watson should probably be here also but I can understand if they want to knock him down until he shows a little more.

Im interested in seeing where this Vargas guy that BP loves (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ma...ition=2B/3B/SS) ends up. Hopefully he is the next out of nowhere Cappe/Eury.

I generally take those guys like Vargas with a grain of salt until they get to at least low A ball. how they can project a 17 year old is beyond me, but most of those guys flame out and never make it. It's just people to keep an eye out on. Same thing with the gerardo guy the scouts love as well. Both of them have pretty ridiculous DSL numbers last year and are super young at 17, but i just dont know how you can make any kind of meaningful projection on guys like that.

[Namaste]

Don't bait Lee into telling us which 5 he wants for Sandy

Hahaha yeah that exactly what I thought right after I hit Post Reply

[lou]

They had an add on chat to FG's top 100 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top...rospects-chat/

Three Marlins references:

There are a number of players, like Jose Salas, that have fallen off the list from last year. Has your opinion on guys like Salas changed meaningfully or has he slipped from a 50 FV to a 45+ FV? 12:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Salas is just a 45 now, Josh Rojas type. Came away from AFL thinking he wasn’t a lock SS. Who might be an apt historical comp for Eury Perez? Seems like almost a unique tools package and body combo. What are the chances he pitches meaningful innings in MLB this year? 12:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Righty CC

Who is your favorite prospect? Not the top prospect, but one you really went to bat for and think is going to be an absolute stud despite risks in the projection?

1:02	Eric A Longenhagen: Cappe

They still need to extend Arraez for 2-3 free agency years, but that really deflects against Salas' value if he is not going to end up at SS. Just more good news on Eury and Cappe otherwise. CC Sabathia is an interesting comp. CC was great but wasn't a huge strikeout guy. Wondering if that's just a physical profile expectation.

[Nick]

They had an add on chat to FG's top 100 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top...rospects-chat/

Three Marlins references:

There are a number of players, like Jose Salas, that have fallen off the list from last year. Has your opinion on guys like Salas changed meaningfully or has he slipped from a 50 FV to a 45+ FV? 12:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Salas is just a 45 now, Josh Rojas type. Came away from AFL thinking he wasn’t a lock SS. Who might be an apt historical comp for Eury Perez? Seems like almost a unique tools package and body combo. What are the chances he pitches meaningful innings in MLB this year? 12:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Righty CC

Who is your favorite prospect? Not the top prospect, but one you really went to bat for and think is going to be an absolute stud despite risks in the projection?

1:02	Eric A Longenhagen: Cappe

They still need to extend Arraez for 2-3 free agency years, but that really deflects against Salas' value if he is not going to end up at SS. Just more good news on Eury and Cappe otherwise. CC Sabathia is an interesting comp. CC was great but wasn't a huge strikeout guy. Wondering if that's just a physical profile expectation.

Other than Sabathia being relatively tall (Eury's even quite a bit taller) I can't think of physical similarities.

[lou]

Biggest wildcards to me are what Jerar and Berry become in the infield and whether Sanchez and Burdick pan out to form a really good platoon, or maybe more. Lot of ifs there, but thats a lot of power to add to the lineup long term if they do pan out. Helps keep the door open on signing a long term SS as opposed to somehow getting 1 more longterm OF piece in a signing or trade.

Yes it's a SS. Problem is FA only has 1, maybe 2, good options next year. And both may not be very exciting, even if I really like both of those guys upside.

Elvis Andrus, Brandon Crawford, Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adalberto Mondesi, Amed Rosario, Joey Wendle


The good news is you can go up/down baseball and most teams have SS figured out for YEARS

Bos - Mondesi / Story / they love Mayer
Tor - Bichette
NYY - Peraza
TB - Franco / Williams
Balt - Gunnar / Ortiz / Defensive types / Holliday

Cle - Gimenez or Rocchio / other defensive types
CHW - Anderson, but only signed for 2 years
KC - Witt (probably), but they won't throw payroll at this
DET - Baez. Likely won't opt out and they can get a 2B easier < --- Maybe
Twins - Correa / Lewis

As - They dont spend and will be bad for years so who cares
Sea - Crawford
Tex - Seager + others
Hou - Pena
LAA - Fletcher/Rengifo < ----- A luxury upgrade possibility. One.

Mia - Wendle to Amaya and _______ < ----- No brainer with only Amaya/Nasim. Two
Atl - Grissom This one is a maybe if he is bad, but he won't be bad
NYM - Lindor + Mauricio
Phi - Turner
Wash - Abrams/ Garcia

CHC - Swanson
STL - Edman / Winn
Mil - Adames / Turang
Cin - De La Cruz
Pitt - Cruz(?), but they won't spend money on this regardless

SF - Post Crawford nothing <---- They will be in the market. They tried for Correa already obviously. Three
Col - Tovar
SDP - Kim / Tatis / Merrill
LAD - Lux / Rojas < - Luxury upgrade potential if Lux can't do it. That is likely IMO, but still is a maybe. They may spend on Ohtani/Machado
Ari - Perdomo bridging to Lawlar


Pretty much, SF and Mia need a longterm SS desperately and some other big spenders could strategically upgrade as a luxury.

In a best case scenario, Baez, Grissom, and Lux are all pretty good so they all get written into stone for years, the White Sox extend Anderson, and Adames becomes too expensive for the Brewers with a cheaper alternative, and we can look at SF/LAA trading big for Adames. Then the Marlins have limited competition for Rosario/Mondesi, as well as there will be some nominal trade options with Cleveland/Baltimore/Minnesota/maybe others to snag a mid-range prospect in a "Puk" sort of deal. Ideally a left hander to set up a platoon with Amaya so to speak if they go the cheap route.


Basically what I am saying here is (1) Bruce is really terrible for not going for one of the 4 SS this offseason as there was a perfect opportunity to secure this extremely needed player with low options moving forward, (2) they should really try everything in their power and get Rosario right now as the other two good free agents post 2024 (Anderson, Adames) are likely in $150+m land and Rosario will be half that with some real upside with his contact rates. He would be the least risky option here IMO unless they completely splurge for Adames (which I would also be in favor of), and (3) it might be a real smart idea to extend Wendle right now. IKF is right handed. Crawford is going to be 37. Andrus is right handed. DeJong is right handed and may not even be a MLB player anymore. Wendle could very easily be the 2nd best SS in the Marlins budget for the next 2 offseasons (after Rosario as we can assume Mondesi is perpetually hurt). If Amaya can hit lefties in 2024 (minor leagues say he will), they have the poor man's platoon with some maybe Segua/Berti backups, a little hope with Groshans staying there and Nasim's BB rate, and maybe Cappe/Watson on the 2026 horizon god-willingly. So yea, extend Joey for a year (just like what Dodgers did with Rojas). Keeping or trading him both work.

[rmc523]

they are the ideal franchise right now. pretty much top notch in every respect. despite spending a shit ton of money, they are still probably the best or 2nd best behind the rays at drafting and developing. It's not like they are all bottom fringe top 100 guys either, it's cartaya for mlb at 14, Miller at 24, Vargas at 37, Busch and Stone at 54 and 56, Pepiot at 70, Pages at 81. That's 7 in the top 100 for mlb.com.

I mean, Andrew Friedman is in charge. So you put Rays FO + tons of money....

[lou]

Other than Sabathia being relatively tall (Eury's even quite a bit taller) I can't think of physical similarities.

Maybe they think he really bulks up. This is a photo of 2002 CC at 22 years old - https://marketplace.beckett.com/item...athia_39254897

This doesn't look like Eury's build to me either.

[sports24/7]

Our last two first round picks in Watson and Berry feel like they need to develop this year for this franchise to take the next step moving forward. But outside of those two, the two guys in the system that I think can really transform things are Cappe and Joe Mack. Mack, especially, would really be a boon as getting a legitimate prospect at the catcher position would be huge for them.

[fish16]

Our last two first round picks in Watson and Berry feel like they need to develop this year for this franchise to take the next step moving forward. But outside of those two, the two guys in the system that I think can really transform things are Cappe and Joe Mack. Mack, especially, would really be a boon as getting a legitimate prospect at the catcher position would be huge for them.

Absolutely, but also all it takes is 1 or 2 guys completely outperforming expectations to change everything. Jerar seems like one guy who could come not necessarily out of nowhere but definitely outperform what we thought he could be. If just 2 of these power bats perform, we’re talking a whole other story. if I had to guess a few outside of berry, it would be jerar, burdick, Mack eventually, and cappe. BA guy is incredibly high on him. I think we will find an outfield eventually as long as jazz can stay in center, if we can find a long term 1b and 3b out of the prospects in the next few years, we will be a contender for a few year stretch

[lou]

Our last two first round picks in Watson and Berry feel like they need to develop this year for this franchise to take the next step moving forward. But outside of those two, the two guys in the system that I think can really transform things are Cappe and Joe Mack. Mack, especially, would really be a boon as getting a legitimate prospect at the catcher position would be huge for them.

I think guys like Watson, Cappe, and Mack (and I. Lewis, Peguero, Gerardo, and R. Hernandez) are next generation guys. They all may not make the bigs until guys like Jazz, Luzardo, Rogers, Arraez, Garcia, and Segura are gone. Absent extensions for the first four of course. Their development is of course important, but they would bridge the "contending team the current guys should become" farther or become the basis for the next rebuild. Maybe I am wrong and there are some fast movers here for a 2025 ETA. Berry should be on the team sooner of course.

I'd rank what transforms the team as:

1 - Bruce Sherman ceases to be the owner or is willing to spend $130-150m during contending windows

2 - The pitching actually arrives and is a 25 WAR unit. Sandy continues to be Sandy. This is Eury becoming an ace, Rogers(2021) and Luzardo (last 135 innings) both pace as 3.5+ WAR SP which they have already shown they can do, and the bullpen is just lights out with whoever isn't the 5th SP of Meyer, Cabrera, Eder, Fulton, Garrett, Puk, and Sixto just vaporizing innings. Becoming a top 5 unit, if not top 1 (27 WAR was HOU last year), radically shifts things regardless of what the offense does IMO. They could have a middle of the pack offense and be a serious contender with a 25 WAR pitching staff.

3 - Optimistically, they'd have some major arm to trade as they might have good pen arms with Bender, Enright, Nardi, and Simpson on top of this. I listed 11 guys above so they may have this internally figured out and could jettison a major SP (likely Luzardo/Rogers/Eder/Fulton/Garret/Puk). And since # 1 exists, this might be the only way to get a 3rd large bat to help Jazz and Arraez. Could be Berry which gets to your point above, but seems optimistic for us to expect JD/Alonso. I'm happy if he is Josh Bell. I'm viewing this move as the reverse Yelich trade where they get Yelich this time, and then the Fortes/Berry/DLC/Sanchez/Garcia/Groshans/Amaya/Jerar/Burdick group are all fine low end starters/good platoon options/good bench players to let the P and Jazz/Arraez/New Guy shine. Basically, the Reynolds trade, the Correa signing, the Jayson Werth acquisition, etc. All the things they haven't done.


The bat prospects would be nice, but it just boils down to the lowest common denominator - ownership sucks, but at this point, the longterm P might be so good you double and triple down on that first and figure out the rest later. This is a rebuilidng year no matter what they want to sell us, setting up for the true arrival of Eury, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Berry, and Bender next year, when Rogers/Luzardo/Cabrera/Garrett may all have their arms built up to throw 160 IP next year which also is important. Yes, move the goal post comments etc. etc., but it is what it is because they didn't get a major bat and 1 more decent upgrade somewhere else. We have to hope for no more TJs with the pitchers as they finally will have the staff side figured out next year more than likely so maybe THEN things will change. Sigh.

[lou]

Absolutely, but also all it takes is 1 or 2 guys completely outperforming expectations to change everything. Jerar seems like one guy who could come not necessarily out of nowhere but definitely outperform what we thought he could be. If just 2 of these power bats perform, we’re talking a whole other story. if I had to guess a few outside of berry, it would be jerar, burdick, Mack eventually, and cappe. BA guy is incredibly high on him. I think we will find an outfield eventually as long as jazz can stay in center, if we can find a long term 1b and 3b out of the prospects in the next few years, we will be a contender for a few year stretch

It's the pitchers with that mostly. Jerar turning into a 2.2 WAR 1B starter would be awesome, but that's not moving the needle. Sandy, Eury, Rogers, Luzardo, and Cabrera equaling 20 WAR which I truly think they can do if they hit their peak is what makes this team a killer. That's the difference making moment. It's effectively like having Fernandez show up if Eury arrives as advertised and the other 3 take a medium step forward. Maybe Berry is a true revelation but I can't see any other bat really being an outperforming expectation kind of guy to make that much of a difference.

I generally agree with you I think they have a collection of solid guys around Jazz/Arraez to have a middle of the pack longterm offense, but they need the pitching to land and that third star and it's not coming internally. We'll see what Bruce does. FA is terrible for their needs next year so I am fearful. Pray for arm health.

[lou]

FG posted an alternative ZIPs top 100 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-202...100-prospects/

TLDR - Eury 4, Eder 65, Meyer 100....and four other unnamed Marlins in their top 200.

Wish they listed the other 4 guys. I'm going to assume this is Berry, Fulton, Amaya, and Groshans. Zips loves those later 2 as high floor defenders. Cappe is too far away for him to appear here so I don't think that is a negative.

It's effectively a middle of the pack farm system to ZIPS, so this goes along with the above, they primarily need the MLB pitchers + Eury/Meyer/Eder/Fulton to be the difference makers.

[lou]

Another FG - who will make the top 100 next year - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to...-2024-top-100/

TLDR - Fulton only

I am pretty sure Meyer has accrued service time on the DL so he has aged out as I can't imagine a world he wouldn't be here at a minimum.