2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

Apparently the Marlins are trading Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham to the Mets for Franklin Sanchez.

[fish16]

They won 67 last year. Importantly, they had an expected W/L of 71-91 (they were 30-36 in 1 run/extras). The below is very very rough so no one yell at me.


C - 2.5+ wins, getting rid of Leon, Wallach, and upgrading Alfaro for Stallings is a big improvement

1B - No change, they got 2.3 WAR out of Aguilar, Cooper, and Lewin, and that seems fair

2B - 3+ wins, Panik and Isan are listed as 2B on fangraphs, so they tanked the stats. Jazz progression and Wendle backup is a huge change

SS - No change - Rojas/Wendle do the same

3B - 1.5+ wins - Anderson being healthy, and Wendle being a competent backup is jump

LF - 1.5+ wins - I'm considering this Sanchez improvement, and DLC/others replacing Dickerson/Brinson

CF - -4 wins - As it stands right now, I'm expecting worse than replacement level slop of Harrison/Berti versus Marte/Sierra getting the lions share last year

RF - +1 win - I'm considering Avisail an upgrade on Duvall/DLC/all the other fleeting Miller/Harrison OF we saw

Adding 5+ wins to their expected W/L is 76 wins. I think you have to expect improvement to the mean with the expected W/L.

This is just an example of the ridiculousness that lou projects WAR as for players on a year in and year out basis. This is from last offseason.

[emkayseven]

Apparently the Marlins are trading Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham to the Mets for Franklin Sanchez.

insane K/9 and HR/9

equally insane BB/9 in the other direction

[fish16]

They've added probably 6+ WAR to the team adding Head, Garcia, Stallings, and Wendle, and losing from the active roster Thompson and presumably Alfaro and Berti. They did this for around $16+m (subtracting Alfaro/Berti arbitration), and gave up Thompson, Nicolas, Scott, and Misner (and Alfaro and Berti). This seems very smart to me overall. We can bitch about Garcia's 4th year, and I still think the Stallings package was heavy, but Wendle's was light and overall, this is a big improvement. This also ignores these guys may be replacing negative WAR players ultimately.

They need to get a few more guys, but I see this as the depth moves have just presented themselves first and the big one is coming. I can't imagine a scenario they hold onto every major pitcher and don't get a large bat.

Another doozy

Yes. They need more. They need to get 10+ WAR this offseason minimum. Right now, they've probably gotten 5+ with Garcia, Stallings, and Head, and losing Thompson. This is likely 3-4 more guys (CF, bench upgrade or two, lefty reliever), and add another arm if they are moving one of Pablo/Elisier/Floro/Bleier in deals.

Another. In reality, those 3 combined for -1.5. Off by a mere 6.5 wins in just 3 players.

Elisier is clearly one of the best 13 pitchers in the organization today and projects as a 1 WAR player over 100 innings.

Off by -1.6. in just 62 innings.

[Namaste]

They won 67 last year. Importantly, they had an expected W/L of 71-91 (they were 30-36 in 1 run/extras)..

Not even close.

The Marlins were 24-40 in 1 run games

32-49 if you add extra innings record.

[fish16]

Not even close.

The Marlins were 24-40 in 1 run games

32-49 if you add extra innings record.

sorry, that was a quote from lou in the 2021 offseason thread. I was just trying to point out that he takes no consideration of how wildly inaccurate his WAR projections are on an annual basis. The only part that was mine from that post was the last sentence.

[rmc523]

The Marlins will get a PTBNL or cash in addition to the previously mentioned part of the Elisier/Brigham trade.

[lou]

This is just an example of the ridiculousness that lou projects WAR as for players on a year in and year out basis. This is from last offseason.

I feel so sad for you you took the time to go back a year and find some out-dated posts.

Also, Stallings failed unexpectedly, Aguilar was way worse, Sanchez struggled, and Garcia failed. Frankly, blame Fangraphs and not me for those projections. Sometimes players don't work out.

[lou]

sorry, that was a quote from lou in the 2021 offseason thread. I was just trying to point out that he takes no consideration of how wildly inaccurate his WAR projections are on an annual basis. The only part that was mine from that post was the last sentence.

Blame fangraphs. Who are very good and players don't work out. I trust industry analysts. You know, how we should all trust experts in their field.

Remind me again how you got to 88 wins in March 2022, how Lewis Brinson turned the corner summer 2021, and how you liked the Yelich deal (I panned from day 1 and wanted Hiura at least so I would have been wrong too)? If you want to play the scoreboard, let's do it.

Get over the frustration of 2022. The sky isn't falling.

[sports24/7]

The powers at be finally made a good broadcasting decision. JP Arencibia was let go. Apparently they'll stick with the rotation of analysts, but he won't be one of them. I actually really liked Rod Allen. I'd like to see more of him. Gabby Sanchez and Jeff Nelson are kind of meh, but Allen and Hutton are good. I just wish they could find a good play by play guy. Severino seems like a good guy, but he's hard to listen to at times going overboard on shilling for the team, and is really corny.

[fish16]

I feel so sad for you you took the time to go back a year and find some out-dated posts.

Also, Stallings failed unexpectedly, Aguilar was way worse, Sanchez struggled, and Garcia failed. Frankly, blame Fangraphs and not me for those projections. Sometimes players don't work out.

I'll split this into 2 posts. Its pretty easy to go to your page, find your posts, and search by WAR. takes about 2 minutes. And you can do the same to me. I've said plenty of wildly wrong shit, but i at least learn from why i was wrong and adjust my thinking, such as thinking this team had a solid capable lineup full of decent hitters going into last year when in reality they have a single impact hitter throughout their entire organization.

Stallings failing is not unexpected. When you rely on players to contribute whose value is completely defensive dependent, you get huge variations from year to year, especially catchers whose value is completely reliant on things like pitch framing, which was a really dumb thing to invest in considering the change to automated strike zone eventually, and considering that their true need was impact talent, not a jeff mathis clone. It is not at all unexpected that a terrible hitter stayed terrible and his defense fluctuated. He was a stupid guy to acquire and it was obvious last year when i said so.

Aguilar was also not unexpected. He should have been non-tendered and the 10 million he was due reinvested in the bullpen. Corner infielders and outfielders are the easiest thing to find year in and year out and they are found in free agency for dirt cheap consistently. Garcia being terrible was also not unexpected. His entire career has been completely volatile. I made the same argument when you wanted him back in 2019. He is especially volatile.

My biggest argument with you for years has been your insistence on relying on clearly absurd projections of WAR, and especially defensively driven valuation of WAR. I've been pretty clear that i think WAR is a hugely flawed stat that produces way too much value on defense. Your lineup projections based on WAR without taking into consideration how that WAR is produced leads to the terrible lineups we have trotted out there. And yes, there is a difference in the actual winning impact of defensive WAR vs offensive WAR and how that impacts how good a team actually is.

Baseball is an incredibly volatile sport full of wild fluctuations, specifically for mid level, non star talent. The most reliable thing is impact-level hitting talent and high level pitching talent. Their will be fluctuations, but there are incredibly few bellingers but a hell of a lot of avisail garcias. You can find defensive driven WAR, the hardest thing to do find consistent impact hitters that you can rely on year in and year out. You might get a lucky garcia or soler season, but you cant count on that. This team has 0 impact talent other than Jazz. they need to acquire at least 2 more star-level hitters, and they have 0 in their system.

[fish16]

The way this team will be built to win is on cost controlled, impact level talent. They have it with the rotation, they need 2-3 more in the lineup. The way to get that is not by trading cost controlled guys like rogers at their lowest value, it's by trading soon to be expensive guys or guys who will soon be free agents who have value and who you wont sign long term at a value. It's how the rays remain competitive with their low payroll annually. And by sticking to that plan, it's how you allow yourselves the budget to sign missing pieces for decent money and low years when you identify a need (See charlie morton and corey kluber).

And yes, i admit i get things wrong all the time. The brewers trade and brinson was a huge whiff, and i was way off on the impact level hitting this team had going into last year, or at the very least how deep the lineup was with competent hitters (.700 to .800 OPS guys). Everyone who comes here falls off a cliff or underperforms for whatever reason. You take those past failures and you adapt your thinking over time to how this team should be built.

hat's the entire reason i keep harping on your love of defensive driven WAR guys who cant hit the broad side of a barn. Wendle, Rojas, Stallings, Berti, are not major league starters for good teams, and their value is entirely defensive (berti's speed is valuable too but not enough to justify his terrible hitting). They are good utility guys or bench bats or at the very least 8-9 hitters on good teams, but if you look at the best teams, they have star-level hitting talent all throughout their lineup. We dont have a single Yordan, Bregman, Correa, Acuna, Albies, Harper, Lindor, Olson, Freeman, Turner, Betts. The best teams have 3+ of those type of guys who can carry a lineup.

And we have a single good hitter in the entire lineup. You can keep making WAR projections all you want, but when they are all defensively driven valuations, you will end up with what we had the last 5 years- terrible lineups 1-9 and WAR's that might look good on paper, but add up to the worst lineup in baseball. You have not made a single analytical adjustment in your WAR projections and what that means for how good they actually are as a complete lineup. Stop using defensively driven WAR to make valuations on how close this team is. As of right now, this team is a really bad team, with a good rotation, terrible lineup, and a bullpen full of decent relievers without a closer. It's not a sky is falling overreaction, it's an adjustment of thinking of what this team needs to be competitive, and how far away they are to actually getting what they need.

[fish16]

and speaking of cody bellinger, that's a guy id be very interested in in CF. He's a good CF and his value couldnt be lower but he has potential to figure it out again obviously. Id take a stab on him for 2 years 20-25 million. No idea what a guy like him would cost right now though in the open market.

[sports24/7]

and speaking of cody bellinger, that's a guy id be very interested in in CF. He's a good CF and his value couldnt be lower but he has potential to figure it out again obviously. Id take a stab on him for 2 years 20-25 million. No idea what a guy like him would cost right now though in the open market.

I think the Marlins would have had more interest in him in a trade rather than FA now that he'll get there. I'd definitely have interest in him as a reclamation project, though.

[fish16]

anderson non-tendered along with neidert. neidert id have kept around but anderson can go. 2 terrible years in a row. lost all power with the shoulder injuries.