2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Why would someone give Avi Garcia a longterm deal when he’s never had any year as good as Bellinger has? Why would anyone give Jorge Soler a longterm contract when he’s been replacement level or worse every year except one? Teams are stupid, and desperate, so they talk themselves into the notion that they’ll get the good, and not the bad.

Garcia had his best year right before free agency. Was it obvious that he wasnt that good and were the marlins dumb for falling for that? Yes. But him getting a big deal wasnt shocking. Bellinger has been not only not good, but straight up bad as a hitter for 2 straight years. He is a classic bounce back candidate so obviously there will be a market, but from both a player and team perspective it would make 0 sense for him to sign a long term deal unless a team is being wreckless with money.

[lou]

Garcia had his best year right before free agency. Was it obvious that he wasnt that good and were the marlins dumb for falling for that? Yes. But him getting a big deal wasnt shocking. Bellinger has been not only not good, but straight up bad as a hitter for 2 straight years. He is a classic bounce back candidate so obviously there will be a market, but from both a player and team perspective it would make 0 sense for him to sign a long term deal unless a team is being wreckless with money.

Well 2017 was certainly his best year, but 2021 second best for sure. This is why Soler was worse as a signing. For Garcia, we can say this:

2017-2021 average - 2.9 WAR/600 PA (2198 plate appearances)
2018-2021 average (let's take out the awesome 2017 he had) - 2.2 WAR/600 PA (1637 PA)

Coming off a good year, solid defensively, good analytics, could argue coming into his own as a sort of late bloomer into a solid corner starter, etc. They really aren't paying him much TBH if he was going to be a 2.2-2.9 player for them. I think it makes little sense still considering no CF, no longterm SS, no longterm 3B (at the time no Groshans), and a bevy of hopes at corner OF (Sanchez off promise, Bleday off his good AFL, say what you will about Burdick/DLC, and stopgap corner OF should be cheap in FA), all of which they failed to address after signing him, but yes. Only point here is, I agree it is not shocking he got a 3-4 year deal and he is very different from Bellinger.

Bellinger to me is something like a 2/$25 deal, and he can opt out after year 1 if he finds his stroke. Frankly, the Soler deal is a blueprint for him. That's what I'm expecting. I'm not sure he is a Marlins target either. Some contender will likely give him a similar money deal, and the Marlins throwing incremental more cash at him likely means little as how much more could they reasonably offer in the first place? Cody has made $39m already so it's not like he's broke. And why isn't he picking a hitter's park with more lineup protection, and not having to deal with the Mets, Braves, and Phillies staffs which are good? I just don't see this one at all. Maybe if they are able to get Peraza (i.e. club controlled SS) leaving some money elsewhere.

[rmc523]

Reports are that Bellinger is looking for a "prove himself" 1 year deal, as y'all have been discussing.

[rmc523]

Also, we avoided arbitration with Dylan Floro, he'll be getting $3.9M.

[Lee Stone]

Which current Marlins are on your "no trade" list? (Unless of course, the return is overwhelming,)

For me, it's Perez and Eder, possibly the best right- and left-handed prospects in the game.

[sports24/7]

Garcia had his best year right before free agency. Was it obvious that he wasnt that good and were the marlins dumb for falling for that? Yes. But him getting a big deal wasnt shocking. Bellinger has been not only not good, but straight up bad as a hitter for 2 straight years. He is a classic bounce back candidate so obviously there will be a market, but from both a player and team perspective it would make 0 sense for him to sign a long term deal unless a team is being wreckless with money.

2017 was his best year, but you’re right that 2021 was 2nd best. But the season before that was one of his worst, so it wasn’t like he was trending upward. But also, he was 30.

Bellenger will most likely take a prove it deal for the reasons you outlined, but it also wouldn’t shock me to see a 27 year old with some big offensive seasons on his resume, and his defense, get a longterm deal for good money from someone. You’re right that it would be a team being reckless, but would that be all that surprising from an MLB team?

[lou]

Which current Marlins are on your "no trade" list? (Unless of course, the return is overwhelming,)

For me, it's Perez and Eder, possibly the best right- and left-handed prospects in the game.

Sandy and Jazz, and that includes if the return is overwhelming. That's it. They can't trade them.

But Eury is very close for me I will note. There are a select handful of guys (Carroll, Witt, Rodriguez, Tatis, Franco, and Rutschman off the top of my head, maybe Varsho and Gimenez but I'd have to think about that) I can buy including Eury in for a package. That might be the whole list, but maybe I forgot a guy or two. Basically, the epic longterm right now SS/CF or an absolutely epic "proven" C with 4-5 years of control minimum and potential for a buyout if not. i.e., up the middle players.

Everyone else can go in the right package. Eder is tough as he might be selling low as he hasn't proven health, but if the price is right they have a multitude of left handers for the first time in maybe ever as an organization.


I mentioned to you before, if you want to get really weird, if the medicals/belief steroids are nothing with Tatis, I think Eury can be in that package and the Marlins have the juice to get it done. Maybe the relationship with SD has completely soured? Further, maybe throw in Grisham who needs a change of scenery (who has a 2.1 WAR player batting .184 last year with a .231 BABIP, which is basically 50 points below his career rate) and that could be an absolutely massive impact for the Marlins and sheds a ton of salary for the Padres to pay Soto and sign some other bats for now (Bellinger for a year or Nimmo longterm would make amazing sense here, combined with bringing back Drury and/or Bell who won't be that expensive in years). Tatis makes 4/$58 the next 4 seasons so Bruce can figure out the budgets later as that is not expensive now and aligns with Sandy's/Jazz control years. Talk about a top 3 with maybe the best SP, 2B, and SS in baseball all of a sudden. Something like...

Eury, Pablo/Rogers, Salas/Cappe, Rojas/Wendle, DLC/Sanchez/Bleday, Floro, and a flyer (McAmbley/Morisette/Peguro/Santos/etc.) for the two of them works on paper I think. Their rotation/bullpen would be nuts with Eury coming quick, the other two of them would be good bench SS/LF for them which they need, and a really nice back end top 100 prospect on top they could trade or keep for the pipeline.

It's beyond a longshot, but I'd get weird and shoot for the moon assuming medicals are fine. There is no other way for the Marlins to ever get a bat like this absent drafting one or signing one, and Tatis doesn't scale in payroll for years so he is worth the trade versus just signing Correa. Payroll would be $75 million(!) for 23 guys and they'd effectively need a 1B/OF type to platoon at both and some back end SP/RP. Something like Wil Myers on a 1 year deal (wasn't bad last year), Eflin/Clevinger (120+ innings in SP/Bulk RP bursts), and pulling another Bass out of their ass for cheap would be a real scary team on paper when healthy, easily under $90m. Just saying, Eury can't be untouchable for one of those elite C/SS/CF guys who they can use right now for years. There are very few of them though.

[sports24/7]

Which current Marlins are on your "no trade" list? (Unless of course, the return is overwhelming,)

For me, it's Perez and Eder, possibly the best right- and left-handed prospects in the game.

Sandy and Jazz. Eury also, unless you’re somehow getting a legitimate superstar with years of control, which you won’t.

[Lee Stone]

Who is your top trade target that has a realistic chance of being acquired? I'm going with Oswald Peraza from the Yankees first, Cartaya from the Dodgers second, and Moreno from the Jays third. Each of these would involve Lopez or a two-pitcher package such as Cabrera and Eder..

[lou]

Who is your top trade target that has a realistic chance of being acquired? I'm going with Oswald Peraza from the Yankees first, Cartaya from the Dodgers second, and Moreno from the Jays third. Each of these would involve Lopez or a two-pitcher package such as Cabrera and Eder..

Alek Thomas. And it's not particularly close.

[fish16]

The more i look at the realistic free agents that we can bring in, the more jose abreu makes sense to me. He wont require a long term deal, the money should be mid level (10-12 million i would think), he's been remarkably consistent throughout his entire career, he brings us some extra base power that we need, and he wants to play here. It creates a weird little log jam of corner outfielders and DH possibilities, but his bat is worth it and generally those things figure themselves out. If we're not going to go out and sign a major guy like correa which, lets be real, we're not going to do, he's probably the best option for someone we can throw some money at but not require 20+ million years down the line. 2 years, 20-30 million range, im all for that. Cooper, him, and Soler can battle it out for who plays first, LF, and DH.

C- Fortes
1b- Abreu
2b- Jazz
SS- glaring hole, hopefully not rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Soler/Cooper
CF- glaring hole, trade needed
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler/Cooper

then you have some young players who can provide you options in Bleday and Sanchez. If they can go out and get a Rosario or somehow trade Pablo for an Alek Thomas, that's about as good as they can do given that they wont be spending money.

[lou]

The more i look at the realistic free agents that we can bring in, the more jose abreu makes sense to me. He wont require a long term deal, the money should be mid level (10-12 million i would think), he's been remarkably consistent throughout his entire career, he brings us some extra base power that we need, and he wants to play here. It creates a weird little log jam of corner outfielders and DH possibilities, but his bat is worth it and generally those things figure themselves out. If we're not going to go out and sign a major guy like correa which, lets be real, we're not going to do, he's probably the best option for someone we can throw some money at but not require 20+ million years down the line. 2 years, 20-30 million range, im all for that. Cooper, him, and Soler can battle it out for who plays first, LF, and DH.

C- Fortes
1b- Abreu
2b- Jazz
SS- glaring hole, hopefully not rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Soler/Cooper
CF- glaring hole, trade needed
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler/Cooper

then you have some young players who can provide you options in Bleday and Sanchez. If they can go out and get a Rosario or somehow trade Pablo for an Alek Thomas, that's about as good as they can do given that they wont be spending money.

Abreu is going to make closer to $20m for 2-3 years (probably 2). Rizzo is 2/$40 and Joc 1/$19. Carlos Santana just got $6.7m and you can't tell me Abreu is looking for double of him and be radically lower than Rizzo/Joc. It's going to be a lot more than you are anticipating. And let's literally not do the bold again. He's a terrible fit unless Cooper or Soler are jettisoned, and they solve SS/CF upgrades and likely another pitcher or two in the process. Given Cooper's tender ($4m), he's a bargain based on the Carlos Santana market for corner IF so he's a keep. Soler could be used in the whole trading for Bumgarner salary dump thing, but that's a big hypothetical that hasn't gone past message board musings.

Rosario, A. Thomas, and cheap free agent pitching to replace whatever they had to trade innings wise is the economical approach. Let's say Pablo is kept, Rogers is moved for Thomas, and they find another way to get Rosario (who does make some real money).... Thats a $90m team assuming the pitcher(s) they do sign are under $5m. Best case scenario here is an 83+ win projection, i.e. not a playoff team. Same comment as last offseason - would need Jazz and Sandy to exceed expectations again (i.e. just play to 2022 levels), a positional break out from at least one of Thomas/DLC/Groshans/Sanchez and at least one of Luzardo/Cabrera/Garrett, and then some 1 run game luck with a performing bullpen. Or Garcia/Soler having real career years, Stallings/Fortes becoming a 4+ WAR platoon, etc. Basically no margin of error and a lot - a lot - must go right. Dumping Abreu on top of this gets you easily over $100m getting rid of Cooper which is the point here, and that maybe adds 1 win to 84+ wins.

And if you're going to spend $100m+..... Correa probably makes that 85+ wins, and if they actually got real pitchers instead of some stopgaps with low innings eater expectations, that might get to 87+ wins on ZIPs projections. That would start eliminating the margin of error and really boost the team if Sandy/Jazz/someone else breaks out, and the 2022 free agents are even OK. It's $110m (or call it a little less if some of Correa is deferred), but that's the financial delta to contending Bruce will have to spend. Frankly, if this team is going to contend as currently constructed, it needs an OOMPH superstar like Correa or as many have mentioned, a radical lineup turnover of 5-6 smaller upgrades and that is even more difficult to see than just signing Correa as all these secondary guys (Berti, Wendle, Cooper, Fortes, likely DLC/Sanchez) are solid and on good contracts so they have little incentive to move on when replacements are more expensive or completely demolish the farm.

So let's prepare to remain in hell as they sell us Eury/Eder/Fulton/Berry/Meyer/Bender will be ready in 2024 and no one of merit becomes a free agent. TBH, Rosario/Thomas/reasonable SP/RP signings will give them a fighting chance to July I think, so we would be betting then on them making the definitive major deadline move and maybe Eury/Eder are really ready and eat 100+ innings combined. Those could be the missing pieces if they refuse to spend real money and just go for it day 1.

[lou]

And here's the further problem, CWS signed Clevinger for 1/$8

So the "preferred" stopgap 1 year SP options if they do trade Pablo/Rogers/Garrett are going to start signing so they need to plant the flag and go get their guys now, so they have full free agency options. i.e., let's not just sit around for a perfect scenario and then just force yourself into Jorge Soler as everyone else has signed.

I'm sure they are working, but they *really* need to be proactive here unless they are just internally circling 2024/2025 and giving us lip service until then.

[sports24/7]

Abreu is off the board. No details on the money yet, but a 3-year deal with Houston.

[rmc523]

The more i look at the realistic free agents that we can bring in, the more jose abreu makes sense to me. He wont require a long term deal, the money should be mid level (10-12 million i would think), he's been remarkably consistent throughout his entire career, he brings us some extra base power that we need, and he wants to play here. It creates a weird little log jam of corner outfielders and DH possibilities, but his bat is worth it and generally those things figure themselves out. If we're not going to go out and sign a major guy like correa which, lets be real, we're not going to do, he's probably the best option for someone we can throw some money at but not require 20+ million years down the line. 2 years, 20-30 million range, im all for that. Cooper, him, and Soler can battle it out for who plays first, LF, and DH.

C- Fortes
1b- Abreu
2b- Jazz
SS- glaring hole, hopefully not rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Soler/Cooper
CF- glaring hole, trade needed
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler/Cooper

then you have some young players who can provide you options in Bleday and Sanchez. If they can go out and get a Rosario or somehow trade Pablo for an Alek Thomas, that's about as good as they can do given that they wont be spending money.

No thanks.

We don't need to handicap ourselves with another DH/1B logjam. Not to mention, with our luck, he'd come here and forget how to hit like everyone else. If it were in conjunction with several other moves that cleared the logjam and upgraded other areas of the roster simultaneously, maybe. But as-is by itself, no.