2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

You have every right to be skeptical of Berry. No speed, no glove and no power. That's a helluva situation for a guy drafted near the very top.

As to the prospect list you referred to, what a joke. Sixto is pretty much gone as a prospect. And how the heck does Meyer rate above Eder? They were both at Pensacola together, Eder was better in every way, they both had TJS, but now Eder is returning. IMO, Eder, Perez and Fulton are the top three and the only surefire prospects in the entire system.

I'm curious what homework you've done on Berry to say he has no power. MLB Pipeline graded his power tool as a 65. Baseball America 60. Fangraphs had the following to say: "His right-handed swing is pretty grooved, but still powerful, while his lefty swing is more skillful and dynamic, giving him a potent contact/power blend." We'll see if that translates, but to say he has no power simply isn't true.

[Lee Stone]

I'm curious what homework you've done on Berry to say he has no power. MLB Pipeline graded his power tool as a 65. Baseball America 60. Fangraphs had the following to say: "His right-handed swing is pretty grooved, but still powerful, while his lefty swing is more skillful and dynamic, giving him a potent contact/power blend." We'll see if that translates, but to say he has no power simply isn't true.

Low A ball he hit three homers in 135 ab. Had an OPS below ,700. Very Connor Scott looking, without the speed and arm. Very Bleday-looking at Jupiter ... though it was High A for JJ at the time. Further note: Am I the only one who sees absolutely nothing in Groshans?

[fish16]

Eh, I’ll take a crack at it.

Sixto: had several dominant outings in the major leagues (playoffs included)

Have Eder and Fulton ever done that?



Meyer: crushed opposing lineups several times in AAA before an injury that almost everyone ultimately gets these days.

Have Eder and Fulton done that? I honestly don’t know how high up Eder and Fulton have pitched. I know Eder got TJ.

Exactly. If Sixto can ever get healthy and back to what he was he's a top of the rotation talent. if you go look at the highlights of his year when he came up in the pandemic season, he was completely filthy with command. He just cant seem to get over the shoulder injury. And at this point its more likely than not that he's just done as a marlin, but there is a clear reason why these prospect ranking outlets are still ranking him in the top 10.

[fish16]

Low A ball he hit three homers in 135 ab. Had an OPS below ,700. Very Connor Scott looking, without the speed and arm. Very Bleday-looking at Jupiter ... though it was High A for JJ at the time. Further note: Am I the only one who sees absolutely nothing in Groshans?

Low A ball in Jupiter he did not have an OPS below .700, nor did he have an OPS below .700 overall for his year last year so you're just making shit up. He had a .347 OPS in the GCL in just 16 ab's which is clearly an outlier because its an extremely small sample against high school kids after a long layoff. His OPS was .750 at Jupiter, and again his stats were impacted by the slow start he got off to after a few month layoff between the end of his college season and when he started playing minor league ball. He showed good plate discipline and OBP with a 23/13 K/BB ratio and a .358 OBP, the power just didnt come in quite yet in an extremely limited sample, which you love making sweeping judgments based off of. Im not as high on berry as i said, but to judge him off of his initial minor league games last year after a long layoff and in Jupiter's pitchers park is pretty dumb. He also got better every month in Jupiter. July he had a .398 OPS in 3 games, August he had a .698 OPS in 92 ab's, and then in September he hit .300 and had an .895 OPS in 9 games.

[lou]

Am I the only one who sees absolutely nothing in Groshans?

Yes.

However he probably only has a low end starter/plus bench player upside unless a lot more power shows up. He is big (6'3) so he might tap into some power as he is still 23 and probably has another year or two of bulking up into his prime self. ZIPS has him .261/.333/.368 and a .8 WAR in only 217 PA. That is effectively a 2+ WAR player which is pretty good if they are right. There is a lot to like here, but it's setting expectations he is not a Jazz, he's optimistically a future Anderson level contributor. Who played at a 2.4 WAR pace per 600 PA for his Marlins career which is very solid if not very good.

BTW, Anderson hit roughly .265/.345/.390 with 12 HR and a 10.5% BB / 18% K rate as a 23 year old split in AA/AAA. Groshans was predominantly all in AAA/MLB as a 22 year old and had roughly the same slash with a little less slugging, but a better BB/K. Anderson didn't become "good" at the MLB level until he was 25. Some patience is going to be needed here. Optimistically, Groshans starts in AAA and is an injury replacement and then takes over next year. But we'll see what they do depth wise. It might be smart to open with LeBlanc as the last guy on the bench and just see if he in his 26/27 year old season is figuring it out. He can be a quick hook in May if that BABIP drop happens, but I don't think this kills the season. We shall see.

[lou]

Low A ball he hit three homers in 135 ab. Had an OPS below ,700. Very Connor Scott looking, without the speed and arm. Very Bleday-looking at Jupiter ... though it was High A for JJ at the time.

Are we ever going to acknowledge a small sample size? A first introduction to pro ball/wood bats? And these guys are entirely different builds from one another? They are nothing alike. Bleday would be more apt though. Also, just to mention, I won't be surprised if at the end 2023, Berry (3) has more career HR than Scott (23).

I share the concerns with him and wouldn't have drafted him either (gotta take a position player or arm that high!), but to cast him into the pit already is a "bit" much. He hasn't even had a real opportunity to criticize yet.

Let's put a pin in Berry until 200+ PA this upcoming year, and that'll just be for initial impression.

[lou]

Low A ball in Jupiter he did not have an OPS below .700, nor did he have an OPS below .700 overall for his year last year so you're just making shit up. He had a .347 OPS in the GCL in just 16 ab's which is clearly an outlier because its an extremely small sample against high school kids after a long layoff. His OPS was .750 at Jupiter, and again his stats were impacted by the slow start he got off to after a few month layoff between the end of his college season and when he started playing minor league ball. He showed good plate discipline and OBP with a 23/13 K/BB ratio and a .358 OBP, the power just didnt come in quite yet in an extremely limited sample, which you love making sweeping judgments based off of. Im not as high on berry as i said, but to judge him off of his initial minor league games last year after a long layoff and in Jupiter's pitchers park is pretty dumb. He also got better every month in Jupiter. July he had a .398 OPS in 3 games, August he had a .698 OPS in 92 ab's, and then in September he hit .300 and had an .895 OPS in 9 games.

Yes - follow the BB/K. Also, if Berry played 1 more game and hit a 2B and a HR, he'd be batting like .270/.370/.450 and Lee would be happy. Continued fun with small sample size percentages.

Let the guy get to June. It's way too early.

[lou]

I honestly don’t know how high up Eder and Fulton have pitched. I know Eder got TJ.

Eder demolished, and I mean demolished, AA hitters at 22 years old, then got hurt. He's 24 this year and should be healthy. Lee is right that if he is healthy and picks right back up, he is a top 2-3 prospect in the system after Eury and probably a top 30-50 overall prospect. But he needs to show that.

Fulton for his age (20) did very well in A+ and first few starts in AA. He had a TJ surgery earlier in high school already too. He's more of a deceptive delivery/lower velocity guy so those guys start struggling more as they raise levels. But, some reports suggest he is ticking up his fastball so that would move him to a funky 4th SP/excellent LHP reliever projection to more of a #3 or better SP. So let's see if that is happening (i.e., he had the surgery and is still a baby so he may need a few years to really develop into an adult physique). It'll be a big year for him next year, but they should be able to slowly bring him along as the SP depth at the moment is excellent (we'll see if they trade someone). If Sixto, Eury, and Eder (and maybe Castano hangs in the pen as the longman/6th SP) can handle starts when someone gets hurt, no reason to think Fulton makes the team this year. He is not Rule V eligible until 2024, so it is in their interest to just keep him in AA all year absent a real explosion and he forces his way up.

[sports24/7]

Low A ball he hit three homers in 135 ab. Had an OPS below ,700. Very Connor Scott looking, without the speed and arm. Very Bleday-looking at Jupiter ... though it was High A for JJ at the time. Further note: Am I the only one who sees absolutely nothing in Groshans?

It was noted by others, but he did not have an OPS below .700 in Low A, and also making any kind of definitive statements about a prospect based on his minor league stats the year he was drafted seems a little unfair, to say the least.

[Todd]

You are quoting a guy who bases whether a player is good or not on as few as 15 ABs. He has no clue what the term sample size means.

[Nick]

Say what you want about Lee, the man is consistent.

[lou]

Say what you want about Lee, the man is consistent.

A very large and consistent sample size*

[fish16]

some interesting names i could see us taking in the rule 5. It seems like we have generally focused on bullpen arms because they are easiest to project to the majors and easier than position players to stash on the roster for a year, but there are some interest bats available from the lists im seeing. The issue becomes stashing them for a year and if they can realistically be kept on the roster for the year without being abysmal.

Malcolm Nunez- 1b/3b for the pirates. reached AAA. MILB stats look gaby sanchez-ish, who was a solid player before getting fat. Hit 23 homers over 3 levels, 69 walks and just 103 k's. Not pure power but enough to get by at a corner spot if he can hit major league pitching. He was just traded from STL to Pit at the deadline for Quintana, and we have seemingly had a good scouting read on cardinals prospects since this new regime took over. Just 22 years old all of next year so if you can get away with stashing him for a year or if he can play at the big league level competently for a year he could be a piece moving forward.

Matt Gorski- CF for the pirates. This is likely a guy who we wont draft because he seems to be 1 year away, but interesting profile. Very Kam Misner-ish. Former 2nd rounder out of college. Good power/speed combo, and he steals bases super efficiently in the minors like Misner. In just 81 games last year over 3 levels he had 24 hr's and 21 steals in 24 opportunities. Only 39 games above A+ ball though so that would be hard to stash for a whole year unless we do a fake injury thing.


Ryan noda- 26 year old lefty outfielder in the dodgers org. Ton of power, ton of OBP, lot of K's. Last year in AAA for the dodgers he had 25 hr's, 23 2b's, and 20/24 sb's with an OPS of .869 last year and .904 the year prior in AA. Walks by year the last 4 years- 109, 74, 74, 92, never more than 468 ab's. So super good plate discipline. And he's older with a lot of ab's at AA and AAA. I believe he is a corner outfielder guy though so might not be the best fit to stash given our glut.

Kameron misner is also available interestingly. Would be funny to get him back.Still love him as a prospect. Last year he played in AA exclusively and had 16 hr's, 25 2b's, 32/39 sb's, and hit .815 OPS. But he is a super toolsy CF so i wouldnt mind grabbing him back. I see an everyday player eventually with him.


Connor scott interestingly enough is also available and went unprotected.

Ronny Simon- 2b/SS/3b for the rays- low OBP but super interesting speed power combo. last year across A+ and AA he hit 22 hr's, another 24 2b's and 3b's, with 34/42 sb's. Like i said low OBP but high slugging. Doesnt strike out a crazy amount but walks very little. Another guy id like in the system but with only 144 ab's above A+ ball, probably a stretch to carry him on the roster all year.


Dominic Canzone- d'backs outfielder- if he can play CF at all, id be interested. Probably would not be hard to keep on the roster all year. just a solid hitter. last year in AA and AAA he hit .300, .908 OPS, another speed/power profile, though it doesnt seem overwhelming speed or power. Just looks like a really professional hitter with good contact skills and decent tools. 22 hr's, 25 2b's, and 15/17 sb's. 25 years old.

Corey Julks- older (27), MLB ready OF caught behind depth in the wrong organization. Last year in AAA for houston he hit 31 hr's, 21 2b's, 22/27 sb's, and a .854 OPS over 500+ ab's. strong Bryan de la cruz vibes over the last 2 years after a pedestrian first 3 minor league years. Again a corner outfielder, but if the bat is projected to be good at this point we cant be too picky.

My top picks would be Canzone, Misner, Julks. misner probably gets the nod depending on how well they think he can play CF in the big leagues

[lou]

Just want to say, I just realized Cabrera and Garret have 168 days of service time. If you aren't aware off the top of your head, 172 days is a full year of time under current regime. Famously, Bryant was called up and received 171 days of service time and generally, the Cubs got away with it.

So by "1" start (5 days), the Marlins very shrewdly got an entire year of control for both of them. Fully controlled 2023 and 2024 at the minimum, 2025 as a Super 2, and 2026-2028 three years of arbitration.

Very well played here.

[lou]

some interesting names i could see us taking in the rule 5. It seems like we have generally focused on bullpen arms because they are easiest to project to the majors and easier than position players to stash on the roster for a year, but there are some interest bats available from the lists im seeing. The issue becomes stashing them for a year and if they can realistically be kept on the roster for the year without being abysmal.

Malcolm Nunez- 1b/3b for the pirates. reached AAA. MILB stats look gaby sanchez-ish, who was a solid player before getting fat. Hit 23 homers over 3 levels, 69 walks and just 103 k's. Not pure power but enough to get by at a corner spot if he can hit major league pitching. He was just traded from STL to Pit at the deadline for Quintana, and we have seemingly had a good scouting read on cardinals prospects since this new regime took over. Just 22 years old all of next year so if you can get away with stashing him for a year or if he can play at the big league level competently for a year he could be a piece moving forward.

Matt Gorski- CF for the pirates. This is likely a guy who we wont draft because he seems to be 1 year away, but interesting profile. Very Kam Misner-ish. Former 2nd rounder out of college. Good power/speed combo, and he steals bases super efficiently in the minors like Misner. In just 81 games last year over 3 levels he had 24 hr's and 21 steals in 24 opportunities. Only 39 games above A+ ball though so that would be hard to stash for a whole year unless we do a fake injury thing.


Ryan noda- 26 year old lefty outfielder in the dodgers org. Ton of power, ton of OBP, lot of K's. Last year in AAA for the dodgers he had 25 hr's, 23 2b's, and 20/24 sb's with an OPS of .869 last year and .904 the year prior in AA. Walks by year the last 4 years- 109, 74, 74, 92, never more than 468 ab's. So super good plate discipline. And he's older with a lot of ab's at AA and AAA. I believe he is a corner outfielder guy though so might not be the best fit to stash given our glut.

Kameron misner is also available interestingly. Would be funny to get him back.Still love him as a prospect. Last year he played in AA exclusively and had 16 hr's, 25 2b's, 32/39 sb's, and hit .815 OPS. But he is a super toolsy CF so i wouldnt mind grabbing him back. I see an everyday player eventually with him.


Connor scott interestingly enough is also available and went unprotected.

Ronny Simon- 2b/SS/3b for the rays- low OBP but super interesting speed power combo. last year across A+ and AA he hit 22 hr's, another 24 2b's and 3b's, with 34/42 sb's. Like i said low OBP but high slugging. Doesnt strike out a crazy amount but walks very little. Another guy id like in the system but with only 144 ab's above A+ ball, probably a stretch to carry him on the roster all year.


Dominic Canzone- d'backs outfielder- if he can play CF at all, id be interested. Probably would not be hard to keep on the roster all year. just a solid hitter. last year in AA and AAA he hit .300, .908 OPS, another speed/power profile, though it doesnt seem overwhelming speed or power. Just looks like a really professional hitter with good contact skills and decent tools. 22 hr's, 25 2b's, and 15/17 sb's. 25 years old.

Corey Julks- older (27), MLB ready OF caught behind depth in the wrong organization. Last year in AAA for houston he hit 31 hr's, 21 2b's, 22/27 sb's, and a .854 OPS over 500+ ab's. strong Bryan de la cruz vibes over the last 2 years after a pedestrian first 3 minor league years. Again a corner outfielder, but if the bat is projected to be good at this point we cant be too picky.

My top picks would be Canzone, Misner, Julks. misner probably gets the nod depending on how well they think he can play CF in the big leagues

I'd take a right handed reliever like you said. That's likely the best bet to stick.

After that it would be a hail mary CF or some sort of infielder and just kicking Groshans and LeBlanc to AAA as they have options remaining.

This is pretty set IMO:

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (or they'd get a larger upgrade)
Jazz
Wendle, Rojas (or they'd get a larger upgrade)
Berti, Groshans/Leblanc (can keep both in AAA so maybe some sort of middle infield type if opportunistic)
DLC, Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar (everyone has options). I can't see them adding someone else here to the corner situation. They like DLC and will play Garcia
______ < -- If they get an Uggla for CF here, I will shit my pants
Garcia
Soler

Sandy/Pablo/Rogers/Luzardo/Garret/Cabrera
_____, _____, Floro, Chargois (Brazoban, Nance, Soriano, Villalobos all have options)
Okert, Bleier, Scott (and Castano is OOO so they'd keep him over a righty or DFA him)


If they are going bat, I'd take this guy for CF also (he is a legit CF). Mets fans were surprised he wasn't protected as they were expecting him to be optionable last guy on the bench. - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ts?position=OF

No real hopes of anything here, but the right handed reliever market seems like something they are good at. Also doesn't it say something if the Pirates (low depth) don't protect someone. The Dodgers/Rays have insane depth so their guys might be pretty OK as they have no other choice, but like you said, may be a year away so they may get kicked back and are the Marlins going to try and win or circle 2024? Misner is someone the Pirates should take as they suck, etc.