2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Erick]

I'd ask for Laureano, Puk, Trivino, and Piscotty.

Piscotty salary dump and immediate DFA. Trivino also moves salary for them and has a good FIP. I'd take a shot on him. Laureano and Puk are good longterm players. The obvious targets here.

You're going to hate it, but I'd float Watson, Sixto, Burdick/Lewin/Bleday, Nunez/Morisette, and Jerar/outside top 20 or two. Gotta pay up. Maybe Neidert here as a post hyper prospect throw in.


I'd then trade Okert to someone who needs a lefty, recoup a prospect, and run with Bass, Trivino, Poteet, Sulser, Floro, Scott, Puk, and Bleier, with Pop/Castano/Garrett as the main injury replacements. Luzardo, Cabrera, and Meyer are effectively the big pitching adds with 2 in the rotation and the third who knows. Someone is always hurt so they are likely all up somewhere.


*Then you trade one of Anderson/Wendle in the offseason and sign a mega SS and Floro is only pitcher free agent and gets replaced by Pop/Castano/Garrett.

Why trade Okert in this case? He’s probably the best reliever on the team.

[fish16]

This team has shown no indication they are going to pay more for a better return so why not just suggest realistic trade proposals, plus you’re proposing to trade 3 different guys at some of their lowest value in Watson, sixto, and burdick.

id start with a minor prospect to the cubs for David Robertson, and then see what it would cost to get bednar. As long as it’s 3 mid tier prospects I’m cool with that, if it costs any of the top guys find another closer on a bad team and get them. They shouldn’t be trading top prospects for closers when they have options in the next few years and the closer position can be filled pretty easily every offseason if you can identify that you need someone at the position and aren’t delusional

[Nick]

I wonder how much it would take to get Daniel Bard and C.J. Cron from Colorado.

[lou]

Why trade Okert in this case? He’s probably the best reliever on the team.

Well Bass is the best reliever on the team and it's not close, but you can make an argument for 5 guys for next best sure.

Okert has a worse FIP (but still solid) than Scott and Bleier. Bleier is under contract so nothing to do there, Scott they love and has better stuff, so it's an opportunity to sell-high on a reliever. Especially if you are going to replace them internally, or via trade. I did mention Puk there - the idea is the Marlins do go for it and part ways with Watson, there should be something else substantial coming back even if the Marlins include another 4-5 good prospects.


Bass, ______, Poteet, Sulser, Floro.... with Pop/Yacabonis/SP trickle downs..... with room for a better trade acquisition
_____, Scott, Bleier.... with Castano/Garrett trickle downs.... with room for a better trade acquisition

That works for me

[lou]

This team has shown no indication they are going to pay more for a better return so why not just suggest realistic trade proposals, plus you’re proposing to trade 3 different guys at some of their lowest value in Watson, sixto, and burdick.

id start with a minor prospect to the cubs for David Robertson, and then see what it would cost to get bednar. As long as it’s 3 mid tier prospects I’m cool with that, if it costs any of the top guys find another closer on a bad team and get them. They shouldn’t be trading top prospects for closers when they have options in the next few years and the closer position can be filled pretty easily every offseason if you can identify that you need someone at the position and aren’t delusional

They paid Oakland $4m along with Marte for a better return in Luzardo, so that's not accurate at all. And that's exactly the point - Oakland would NEVER get a guy like Watson or Sixto healthy for Laureano so they take on risk to get much higher upside. That's the kind of moves you have to make as a small market team likely years from contending. And why you ask for Puk so you have some reliever upside with it. That move could be a major backfire for the Marlins, but that's the price of getting competent young major leaguers.

Robertson would be good and likely not cost a ton. Everyone is probably thinking that though. Bednar costs you a lot more than mid-tier guys. A lot. He costs you at least Cabrera with what he is doing. 2.2 WAR his last 100 IP. He's amazing. Bednar only makes sense if you just go for it and get Reynolds too.

I'd rather trade for guys with control than fringe rentals like Robertson ultimately. It worked for Atlanta last year, but that isn't the kind of upgrade the team needs. This isn't a surefire contender so it's continuing to build while you subtract. They got a good opportunity to move Watson/Salas, Lewin/Burdick/Bleday, Sixto/Fulton, Lewis/Cappe/Morisette/Nunez, and low end FV 40 guys to some like Jerar/Conine/Fitterer/McCambley to really just get a CF and a reliever upgrade. They can put together a really nice 4-6 prospect package here, and use payroll as a weapon and take on a bad contract (Piscotty) to save someone some bucks. There is precedent with that with Luzardo.

Hoping for the best, expecting Billy Hamilton getting hot for 2 weeks and they do nothing.

[fish16]

While i agree they should prioritize getting guys with team control, the more important thing to me is to prioritize not compounding the offseasons mistake of not getting a closer by then trading prospects for a super upgrade. If we can get a guy with control for very little, I'm obviously all for it, but I'm not for trading top prospects to fill a need that we will have internal options available to fill moving forward (cabrera, sixto, Meyer, etc). Shitty teams trade their good closers at the deadline for very little annually. To get Robertson you're giving up maybe a top 20-30 prospect in your system and that's it. Go get an upgrade like him and 1 more set up man or current closer from another shitty team and call it a deadline. You upgrade the back end of the bullpen by a lot without giving up much and compounding the infuriating decision to not sign a closer in the offseason.

Getting Robertson and Bard (or insert any other back end option on a shitty team) is the best move for this year and long term. It makes no sense to give up anything close to your top 15 prospects in order to get an upgrade at closer when those guys are available in free agency every year and you have a number of internal young options already under team control for the next few years.

[Nick]

To Miami:

C.J. Cron
Daniel Bard

To Colorado:
Edward Cabrera
Sixto Sanchez
Evan Fitterer
Jesus Aguilar

You make a deal for 1 more bullpen arm, maybe a David Robertson like fish16 mentioned. And I think we're good to make a run. Bullpen is upgraded, and Cron over Aguilar is a big upgrade. Cron has another year under contract at a very reasonable price.

Then in the offseason you go out and get Brandon Nimmo to patrol CF. You get by with Sanchez and maybe Berti rest of the year. (surprised we haven't seen more of him out there)

[Lee Stone]

Trade target: Jordan Walker, 3B from Cardinals. Blocked by Arenado at third and Goldy at first. Power, speed and long-term building block at only 20. Trade bait is Pablo and a prospect or two. Wouldn't mind getting Tyler O'Neill as an add on (buy low).

[Nick]

Trade target: Jordan Walker, 3B from Cardinals. Blocked by Arenado at third and Goldy at first. Power, speed and long-term building block at only 20. Trade bait is Pablo and a prospect or two. Wouldn't mind getting Tyler O'Neill as an add on (buy low).

If we're out of it yes. Because as of right now we're not. First Big time decision for Kim Ng in my eyes.

[Erick]

Well Bass is the best reliever on the team and it's not close, but you can make an argument for 5 guys for next best sure.

Okert has a worse FIP (but still solid) than Scott and Bleier. Bleier is under contract so nothing to do there, Scott they love and has better stuff, so it's an opportunity to sell-high on a reliever. Especially if you are going to replace them internally, or via trade. I did mention Puk there - the idea is the Marlins do go for it and part ways with Watson, there should be something else substantial coming back even if the Marlins include another 4-5 good prospects.


Bass, ______, Poteet, Sulser, Floro.... with Pop/Yacabonis/SP trickle downs..... with room for a better trade acquisition
_____, Scott, Bleier.... with Castano/Garrett trickle downs.... with room for a better trade acquisition

That works for me

I think you’re looking at FIP without context.

Okert is waaaayyy better than Bleier. Bleier probably shouldn’t be in the big leagues at this point. I wouldn’t mind DFA’ing him if the team wouldn’t mind eating the remainder of the contract. His FIP is fine because he doesn’t walk guys, but he basically throws batting practice.

Edit: They should actually let Bleier throw batting practice to the team, maybe they’d start hitting lefties better.

[Erick]

If there’s a guy on the team who plays a role but should go (even if they’re buyers), it’s Aguilar.

I like what Aguilar has done here, but it’s time for him to go imo. Don’t really care what we get back. He’s redundant on this team. I was at the game last night, and that 9th inning rally started, in part, because he can’t move. A guy like Lewin Diaz is at least close to making that play. For the offense Aguilar is providing, it’s not worth it. His batted ball metrics are the worst they’ve been in a long time too so I’m not sure he’ll get hot the rest of the year or something like that.

I’d like to see Lewin at 1B already. Or maybe just put Cooper at 1B and let Soler DH full time, which is what he is anyway. We have too many DH’s (another obvious problem from before the year that is still a problem today).

[lou]

To Miami:

C.J. Cron
Daniel Bard

To Colorado:
Edward Cabrera
Sixto Sanchez
Evan Fitterer
Jesus Aguilar

You make a deal for 1 more bullpen arm, maybe a David Robertson like fish16 mentioned. And I think we're good to make a run. Bullpen is upgraded, and Cron over Aguilar is a big upgrade. Cron has another year under contract at a very reasonable price.

Then in the offseason you go out and get Brandon Nimmo to patrol CF. You get by with Sanchez and maybe Berti rest of the year. (surprised we haven't seen more of him out there)

Cron has a sub .700 OPS away from Coors (and was low .700 last year so this isn't a sample size), which is arguably a downgrade from Aguilar. He's not the guy how I see it.


It's still a CF, a bullpen arm(s), and likely a lefty killer for the bench. Which is actually all Oakland as I just thought about Nick Allen who is a total lefty killer (look at MiLB stats) and is a perfect transition guy away from Rojas to be a longterm backup IF in a year. That helps the SS pipeline for sure. Oakland doesn't need these guys now compared to shooting for the moon with radical upgrades.

Laureano, Puk, Allen, and Trivino (and eat Piscotty). I'd trade for those 5. This adds about $6m in payroll. Immediately DFA Piscotty.

This is probably a FV50, FV45, FV45, FV45, FV40+, FV 40+, FV40, and FV40 sort of package. That's effectively (1) Watson/Salas, (2) Burdick/Lewin, (3) Fulton, (4) Morisette, (5) Sixto, (6) Nunez, (7) Jerar/Conine/Osiris, and (8) outside top 25 sort of package. There is some major upside here for them IMO, and the Marlins can live without these guys for a 2+ year CF, and 5+ year bullpen lefty and backup infielder who is slick defensively. These guys slotted into Oakland's system probably are # 3, 8, 10, 12, 15, and 20 top prospects which is pretty damn good.


Stallings, Fortes
Cooper
Jazz, Berti
Rojas, Allen
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez
Laureano
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers
Bass, Trivino, Poteet, Sulser, Floro
Puk, Scott, Bleier/Okert

AAA - Castano, Garrett, Head, Elisier (who is kicking ass in AAA), Pop, Nance
AAA - Williams, DLC

Anderson and Berti can be the backup OF, and BA can chip in at 1B (as well as Rojas). Laureano and Allen both hit lefties hard historically which is desperately needed.

Further trades - Okert/Bleier, Aguilar.... which should recoup at least the last 2 prospects in my hypothetical Oakland deal.

This entire team is then coming back next year except for only Floro who can immediately be replaced with "Cabrera" and if you ditch Sulser/Trivino for payroll, you can replace with Pop and literally whoever... with Eury and Eder looming.

Offensively, you then trade "1" of Anderson, Wendle, and Rojas for prospects and sign whoever you want - presumably an epic SS or 3B.


This isn't too wild. There have been other 10+ player trades in recent MLB history, albeit rare and only every few years. Oakland is always down to party with prospects and saving money and it's a good match.

[lou]

Trade target: Jordan Walker, 3B from Cardinals. Blocked by Arenado at third and Goldy at first. Power, speed and long-term building block at only 20. Trade bait is Pablo and a prospect or two. Wouldn't mind getting Tyler O'Neill as an add on (buy low).

Wrong Cardinal - it's GORMAN. Who is terrible at 2B and blocked by Arenado AND Walker (who is better).

I'd trade for him quickly with Cabrera/Wendle/Okert sort of thing and then make some other moves to clear space at 3B for him. You can still do the Oakland move AND these which would be very very exciting for them to have some real vision for winning now and later

[lou]

I think you’re looking at FIP without context.

Okert is waaaayyy better than Bleier. Bleier probably shouldn’t be in the big leagues at this point. I wouldn’t mind DFA’ing him if the team wouldn’t mind eating the remainder of the contract. His FIP is fine because he doesn’t walk guys, but he basically throws batting practice.

Edit: They should actually let Bleier throw batting practice to the team, maybe they’d start hitting lefties better.

Bleier is under contract so he isn't going to go anywhere regardless of what we think. I do agree I'd rather have Okert, but the idea is if they GET a lefty, they can trade one. And it's not Scott or the guy with the contract.

Castano and Garrett look pretty solid as depth lefties.

[lou]

If there’s a guy on the team who plays a role but should go (even if they’re buyers), it’s Aguilar.

I like what Aguilar has done here, but it’s time for him to go imo. Don’t really care what we get back. He’s redundant on this team. I was at the game last night, and that 9th inning rally started, in part, because he can’t move. A guy like Lewin Diaz is at least close to making that play. For the offense Aguilar is providing, it’s not worth it. His batted ball metrics are the worst they’ve been in a long time too so I’m not sure he’ll get hot the rest of the year or something like that.

I’d like to see Lewin at 1B already. Or maybe just put Cooper at 1B and let Soler DH full time, which is what he is anyway. We have too many DH’s (another obvious problem from before the year that is still a problem today).

Totally. He should have been DFA'd preseason as soon as they signed Soler and it's a real problem.

I want Anderson Cooper playing 1B, for both practical and fun nickname reasons. Wendle/Berti can handle 3B obviously with what they are doing.

They need a CF and a lefty killer (really any position besides 1B/DH as they have a lot of flexibility with a "new CF" and the infielders play everywhere).

We've been saying this sadly since October. Aguilar and DLC should be replaced with those as soon as possible. Nothing has changed here and its infuriating.