2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

It's honestly a pretty short list of who makes sense and qualifies as an "oomph" signing.

Correa, Seager, Bryant, Semien, S. Marte, Castellanos, and if you believe in them, Story and Baez. There is also C. Taylor, but I don't consider him an "oopmh" signing even if he is great and would work well in Miami. Everything else is a stop-gap free agent that shouldn't be a top 2 piece they acquire this offseason.

Also, there are a lot of good pitchers (Max, Kershaw, Gausman, Ray, Stroman, Rodon, Syndergaard, J. Gray who I have a soft spot for, E. Rodriguez, maybe Verlander, etc.). I think the "sneaky" plan would be the Marlins doing two massive pitching trades for bats, call it Pablo in one deal and Meyer in another, and then using free agency money to sign a pitcher to replace Pablo on a 2 year deal (maybe a Sydergaard reclamation project and he gets a good home ballpark in the NL). If Pablo gets you Brandon Marsh and prospects, and Meyer/Watson leads a package of absolutely blowing out the farm for K. Marte/Kelly, you can plug in a veteran SP as your 3/4 starter and have a real nice team on paper. Especially if they continue to splurge on a Loup/lefty veteran reliever on top of this.

I'm hopeful. I think they understand they gotta go for it in year 5 as what are you doing if you don't? The Dolphins and Canes suck, this is a good year to try and make some noise even if the Heat and Panthers look to be really good.

Agreed. Correa would be the dream, and I'd be very happy with the rest. I'm just not sure I see them ever doing a $200M-$300M deal again, so I think the younger, higher profile guys on that list are probably not going to happen. A guy like Castellanos is going to get a high AAV, but you're looking at a shorter deal. I did see a Blear Report article predict Correa to the Marlins, and that would be a hell of a splash as well as be the closest thing to a sure bet you can get. And with the rest of the payroll, you're really still not going to be spending a lot even with a monster deal for a guy like that. I just don't see them doing it, even if they do plan to open up the pocketbooks.

[fish16]

I'm always a proponent of a vet SP signing for the inevitable injuries and/or innings limits for younger guys.

absolutely, things could have turned out very differently this year if they had done so last offseason. Instead they cheaped out and once elieser and sixto went down they were playing 40% of their games with a terrible SP. A guy like gray to me makes the most sense because I think he will benefit greatly from coming to our ballpark for half his starts and, since I doubt he will cost all that much, he can easily become a late inning bullpen weapon with his velocity and repertoire in the best case scenario of all our young guys staying healthy and pitching well.

It sounds obvious but just getting that 1 consistent veteran on the staff who you can count on to give you quality innings every 5 days takes just so much pressure off the young arms that we would otherwise be relying on. Gray is the level I would look at but if they do decide to invest money into the rotation to stabilize it, Zack Greinke is the ideal option. Perfect combo of durability, proven track record, and great innings eater. I doubt they go anywhere near that price point though so jon gray level is the perfect addition.

[fish16]

Agreed. Correa would be the dream, and I'd be very happy with the rest. I'm just not sure I see them ever doing a $200M-$300M deal again, so I think the younger, higher profile guys on that list are probably not going to happen. A guy like Castellanos is going to get a high AAV, but you're looking at a shorter deal. I did see a Blear Report article predict Correa to the Marlins, and that would be a hell of a splash as well as be the closest thing to a sure bet you can get. And with the rest of the payroll, you're really still not going to be spending a lot even with a monster deal for a guy like that. I just don't see them doing it, even if they do plan to open up the pocketbooks.

for what it's worth, mish said no way they get into the sweepstakes for a huge guy like that. I think you're right on the money, if they do decide to spend, it will be a tier II type guy like Castellanos who they can get on a relatively short term deal. Id go 3/60 or 4/75 for him. Only if the DH is assured though.

[lou]

I'd be very happy if the offseason is something like:

Castellanos (5 years, under $90 mil, front loaded 2022-2023)
Marsh (and prospects, for Pablo and Bass. Dump him on them)
Jon Gray/Noah Syndergaard/any potential top of the rotation starter (2 years, price irrelevant)
Carson Kelly (something like Nicolas/Eury/Fulton and Neidert probably)
Loup or any other legitimate bullpen lefty (1-2 years, price irrelevant)
Trade/DFA Cooper and get another veteran infielder
Sandy extension (5/$50 range, front loaded 2022-2023)

That would be

Kelly, Alfaro/Fortes/Jackson/Who Cares/Henry
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Veteran Infielder
Castellanos
Marsh, De La Cruz
Sanchez

Sandy, Rogers, Veteran Starter, Luzardo, Hernandez
Bender, Floro, Thompson, Cabrera, Pop
New Lefty, Bleier, Okert

Next men up for pitchers - Sixto, Poteet, Garret, Meyer. Cabrera and Sixto are slowly built up over the season to take on more significant roles. As previously discussed, shoot for 125ish innings for Sixto and Cabrera at all levels.

Don't have minor league depth for bats outside a Bleday/Burdick/Misner/Scott breakout, but you can probably sustain 1-2 significant injuries and get to the summer to reassess.

This works better with Ketel, because you've now injury proofed the entire team being able to move him around. But you can't have everything. It would be awesome if "veteran infielder" above was Chris Taylor and jesus can you mix and match the team then. We can dream.

[fish16]

I'd be very happy if the offseason is something like:

Castellanos (5 years, under $90 mil, front loaded 2022-2023)
Marsh (and prospects, for Pablo and Bass. Dump him on them)
Jon Gray/Noah Syndergaard/any potential top of the rotation starter (2 years, price irrelevant)
Carson Kelly (something like Nicolas/Eury/Fulton and Neidert probably)
Loup or any other legitimate bullpen lefty (1-2 years, price irrelevant)
Trade/DFA Cooper and get another veteran infielder
Sandy extension (5/$50 range, front loaded 2022-2023)

That would be

Kelly, Alfaro/Fortes/Jackson/Who Cares/Henry
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Veteran Infielder
Castellanos
Marsh, De La Cruz
Sanchez

Sandy, Rogers, Veteran Starter, Luzardo, Hernandez
Bender, Floro, Thompson, Cabrera, Pop
New Lefty, Bleier, Okert

Next men up for pitchers - Sixto, Poteet, Garret, Meyer. Cabrera and Sixto are slowly built up over the season to take on more significant roles. As previously discussed, shoot for 125ish innings for Sixto and Cabrera at all levels.

Don't have minor league depth for bats outside a Bleday/Burdick/Misner/Scott breakout, but you can probably sustain 1-2 significant injuries and get to the summer to reassess.

This works better with Ketel, because you've now injury proofed the entire team being able to move him around. But you can't have everything. It would be awesome if "veteran infielder" above was Chris Taylor and jesus can you mix and match the team then. We can dream.

I would love that offseason as long as they make sure to shore up the back end of the bullpen with a legit proven option and not just do what they've been doing which is throwing shit at the wall and hoping 8 guys stick. that's not a bad strategy to build a bullpen, but they need to sign or trade for a legit proven closer who can get you big outs, not just continue to force guys who have been nice middle relievers into an elevated closer's role. some guys just arent cut to be in such high end leverage situations and that's ok, you can avoid that if you spend money on a guy who might not be a star closer but will blow less games than a middle reliever thrust into a more important role. Especially the last few years, you can get so much fucking value for not a ton of money by signing the right couple of relievers.

[fish16]

I'd be very happy if the offseason is something like:

Castellanos (5 years, under $90 mil, front loaded 2022-2023)
Marsh (and prospects, for Pablo and Bass. Dump him on them)
Jon Gray/Noah Syndergaard/any potential top of the rotation starter (2 years, price irrelevant)
Carson Kelly (something like Nicolas/Eury/Fulton and Neidert probably)
Loup or any other legitimate bullpen lefty (1-2 years, price irrelevant)
Trade/DFA Cooper and get another veteran infielder
Sandy extension (5/$50 range, front loaded 2022-2023)

That would be

Kelly, Alfaro/Fortes/Jackson/Who Cares/Henry
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Veteran Infielder
Castellanos
Marsh, De La Cruz
Sanchez

Sandy, Rogers, Veteran Starter, Luzardo, Hernandez
Bender, Floro, Thompson, Cabrera, Pop
New Lefty, Bleier, Okert

Next men up for pitchers - Sixto, Poteet, Garret, Meyer. Cabrera and Sixto are slowly built up over the season to take on more significant roles. As previously discussed, shoot for 125ish innings for Sixto and Cabrera at all levels.

Don't have minor league depth for bats outside a Bleday/Burdick/Misner/Scott breakout, but you can probably sustain 1-2 significant injuries and get to the summer to reassess.

This works better with Ketel, because you've now injury proofed the entire team being able to move him around. But you can't have everything. It would be awesome if "veteran infielder" above was Chris Taylor and jesus can you mix and match the team then. We can dream.

Taylor is a nice player but he will be out of our price range for that type of complementary piece, and I would be terrified to give him big money because I think he benefits greatly by being surrounded by a lineup of superstars. At 31, he is probably at his peak and to me he is the type of guy we have seen a ton of in the last 10 years who would come here and immediately face a numbers decline due to the ballpark and surrounding pieces in the lineup.

Carson kelly though the more I look at his numbers and situation with varsho behind him, I think he might be the perfect C to target. Upside, still young, grades out really well as a catcher, and while he isn't a tremendous hitter, he puts up more than enough offense as a catcher and he isn't the alfaro type where there are way too many strikeouts to the point where he kills you in crucial situations. For kelly alone I cant imagine the price is anything crazy either. Given that they are rebuilding and have Varsho behind him, I think 2 lower level guys with upside would make a ton of sense for each side.

[fish16]

Also, the guy who i would give up more for than almost anyone else realistically available would be byron buxton. Soon to be FA, I would shoot for the moon and trade for him (if the injuries and upcoming FA makes the price OK), and then see if you can use his injury history to your advantage and take a huge swing on a big long term deal with him. 7 years 125 million is a number I wouldn't hesitate to give to him, not sure what he would expect though.

To me it is incredibly important that we acquire impact talent at a value and I think you can get a huge steal relative to what we give up if we trade for him and then extend him long term. Its a huge risk with the injury history but a lot of it has been truly unlucky and to me its worth the injury risk for a guy who is a legitimate superstar when healthy. If you trade Pablo and other minor leaguers in a deal for him and then trade for Kelly as well, fill out the rotation with 1 innings eater and then get 2 quality bullpen arms, and you have a monster team as long as its healthy.

Lineup of:

SS-Rojas
2b- Jazz
Cf-Buxton
RF- Sanchez
DH- Aguilar
3b- Anderson
C- Kelly
1b- Lewin Diaz
LF- Stopgap free agent


Rotation of: Sandy, Rogers, Sixto, Jon Gray, Elieser/Cabrera/Meyer/Luzardo/etc

With a decent bullpen that's a team that is not only good but has legitimate contender upside given health. Accoridng to Fangraphs buxton was a 4.2 WAR in 60 games. He is one of the best players in baseball, just injured a lot. As a small market team, if you can use his injury history and take an enormous risk by signing him long term, there is a very good chance you get an enormous surplus value for a legit superstars prime years. That's a guy id give up Eury, Cabrera, Meyer, etc. for.

[fish16]

Barry Jackson

@flasportsbuzz
Just spent time with Marlins officials at a Marlins Park workout for prospects. I'm convinced they are committed to spending money and seriously upgrading offense this winter. With their depth of quality pitching/Chisholm/Jesus Sanchez etc. there is reason for hope

Means nothing but it beats the alternative of them carefully putting out statements that make sure not to talk about spending money. Jeter also said similar stuff the other day regarding spending so hopefully they don't lie

[Nick]

I still like a San Diego trade the most:

San Diego Gets:

Pablo Lopez
Garrett Cooper
Nick Neidert

Miami Gets:

Luis Campusano
Robert Hassell
Wil Myers and Yu Darvish (Padres eat about $20 million in 2022)

You pick up Starling Marte (with his eventual replacement in Hassell in hand, maybe he would accept a 2 year / $20 million per type contract?) and 2 quality backend relievers, and I think you're ready to rock, spend a little more in 2022 and 2023 to have a sustainable payroll going forward after that, and then hopefully the money will be there if we ever need to go out and get a final piece in Free Agency or the deadline. I think you have a team that competes for the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 and then has even greater potential after that.

Future Lineup Looks like:

C - Campusano
1B - Lewin Diaz
2B - Jazz
SS - Salas/Watson (one of these guys being ready by 2024 I think is realistic)
3B - Anderson/ (maybe you use your #5 pick next year on a Jace Jung who replaces Anderson)
LF - Burdick
CF - Hassell
RF - Sanchez
DH - Elite FA Bat hired gun

[lou]

Also, the guy who i would give up more for than almost anyone else realistically available would be byron buxton. Soon to be FA, I would shoot for the moon and trade for him (if the injuries and upcoming FA makes the price OK), and then see if you can use his injury history to your advantage and take a huge swing on a big long term deal with him. 7 years 125 million is a number I wouldn't hesitate to give to him, not sure what he would expect though.

To me it is incredibly important that we acquire impact talent at a value and I think you can get a huge steal relative to what we give up if we trade for him and then extend him long term. Its a huge risk with the injury history but a lot of it has been truly unlucky and to me its worth the injury risk for a guy who is a legitimate superstar when healthy. If you trade Pablo and other minor leaguers in a deal for him and then trade for Kelly as well, fill out the rotation with 1 innings eater and then get 2 quality bullpen arms, and you have a monster team as long as its healthy.

Lineup of:

SS-Rojas
2b- Jazz
Cf-Buxton
RF- Sanchez
DH- Aguilar
3b- Anderson
C- Kelly
1b- Lewin Diaz
LF- Stopgap free agent


Rotation of: Sandy, Rogers, Sixto, Jon Gray, Elieser/Cabrera/Meyer/Luzardo/etc

With a decent bullpen that's a team that is not only good but has legitimate contender upside given health. Accoridng to Fangraphs buxton was a 4.2 WAR in 60 games. He is one of the best players in baseball, just injured a lot. As a small market team, if you can use his injury history and take an enormous risk by signing him long term, there is a very good chance you get an enormous surplus value for a legit superstars prime years. That's a guy id give up Eury, Cabrera, Meyer, etc. for.

Buxton is a 4.4 WAR player per 600 PA for his career, let alone the production splurge last year. He's good.

I wouldn't give up Pablo, Sixto, Cabrera, Meyer, or Watson for him with 1 year of control though unless you're getting something else back (or agreed extension). Those guys could dwarf 1 year of Buxton as health and contract aren't guaranteed. But, the Marlins certainly have the players to make it happen and try and get an extension. It's not a bad idea.

Maybe you agree to take Donaldson who isn't dead yet (2/$43.5) and don't give them much for absorbing major money. Anderson kicked to OF for a year, and Donaldson moved to DH in 23.

Hell, get weird and throw in Garver also. Those 3 guys are major bat upgrades and 10 WAR collectively if they are healthy. I'm not sure what they'd want for that, but I have a hard time seeing them not loving get out of Donaldson. Maybe something like E. Hernandez, Eury/Fulton, Morirsette/Nasim/Lewis, Neidert/Poteet, Pop/Holloway, Cooper (dump), and Bass (dump) would do it.

Adds about $25m in payroll (after dumping Cooper and Bass on them) and it's mostly Donaldson who is gone after 23. Twins get a ton of playable arms and big money to spend on younger guys.

They match up, just depends on if this is the best deal.

[lou]

I still like a San Diego trade the most:

San Diego Gets:

Pablo Lopez
Garrett Cooper
Nick Neidert

Miami Gets:

Luis Campusano
Robert Hassell
Wil Myers and Yu Darvish (Padres eat about $20 million in 2022)

You pick up Starling Marte (with his eventual replacement in Hassell in hand, maybe he would accept a 2 year / $20 million per type contract?) and 2 quality backend relievers, and I think you're ready to rock, spend a little more in 2022 and 2023 to have a sustainable payroll going forward after that, and then hopefully the money will be there if we ever need to go out and get a final piece in Free Agency or the deadline. I think you have a team that competes for the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 and then has even greater potential after that.

Future Lineup Looks like:

C - Campusano
1B - Lewin Diaz
2B - Jazz
SS - Salas/Watson (one of these guys being ready by 2024 I think is realistic)
3B - Anderson/ (maybe you use your #5 pick next year on a Jace Jung who replaces Anderson)
LF - Burdick
CF - Hassell
RF - Sanchez
DH - Elite FA Bat hired gun

I like the idea a lot, but I can't see them moving Campusano. Catcher prospects are gold when not the deadline.

Eating bad money on San Diego is an idea I generally love, and there are certainly pieces to work with up and down their team.

Like seriously, can we have Nola back?

[lou]

Fucking Nola has 4.2 WAR in 650 PA for his career.

These guys had Barnes (7 WAR, 1150 PA, very solid), Realmuto, and Nola and we ended up with fist pumping garbage time HR from Nick Fortes.

[fish16]

Buxton is a 4.4 WAR player per 600 PA for his career, let alone the production splurge last year. He's good.

I wouldn't give up Pablo, Sixto, Cabrera, Meyer, or Watson for him with 1 year of control though unless you're getting something else back (or agreed extension). Those guys could dwarf 1 year of Buxton as health and contract aren't guaranteed. But, the Marlins certainly have the players to make it happen and try and get an extension. It's not a bad idea.

Maybe you agree to take Donaldson who isn't dead yet (2/$43.5) and don't give them much for absorbing major money. Anderson kicked to OF for a year, and Donaldson moved to DH in 23.

Hell, get weird and throw in Garver also. Those 3 guys are major bat upgrades and 10 WAR collectively if they are healthy. I'm not sure what they'd want for that, but I have a hard time seeing them not loving get out of Donaldson. Maybe something like E. Hernandez, Eury/Fulton, Morirsette/Nasim/Lewis, Neidert/Poteet, Pop/Holloway, Cooper (dump), and Bass (dump) would do it.

Adds about $25m in payroll (after dumping Cooper and Bass on them) and it's mostly Donaldson who is gone after 23. Twins get a ton of playable arms and big money to spend on younger guys.

They match up, just depends on if this is the best deal.

ya, any buxton deal for me would have to have an extension in place in order to make sense. He is just the best possible option in terms of price to get him due to the injury history and upcoming FA, best player in the league type upside, and ability to get value out of a potential long term deal. I don't like big time free agency for lower market teams like the marlins because its extremely hard to get value from a contract like that as you're paying market value for a guy who 9/10 times is not good by the end of the deal, but if his price for a long term extension is diminished due to the injury history they absolutely have to strike and pay the price both to get him via trade and then through an extension. All of a sudden that gives you a legit, dynamic, sure fire #1 star hitter when healthy and it pushes every other hitter down 1 spot in importance in the lineup. All of a sudden you go from needing Jesus Sanchez to be our best player to looking at him as a really good bet to give you really good 2nd best hitter type production, and then jazz and Anderson can be complimentary offensive pieces instead of being looked at for star production.

[fish16]

Fucking Nola has 4.2 WAR in 650 PA for his career.

These guys had Barnes (7 WAR, 1150 PA, very solid), Realmuto, and Nola and we ended up with fist pumping garbage time HR from Nick Fortes.

don't forget mark canha who they didn't even really give a chance to despite him being great at every minor league level. The funniest part of the previous regime's ineptitude is that they didn't suck because they lacked star level hitting and pitching before jose died, its that they just fundamentally didn't understand the value of building a deep and complete organization. If they valued building out a complete team next to the stars like Yelich, Stanton, Jose, Ozuna, they would have made the playoffs at least 1 or 2 times more. but instead, every single year they basically built their team as if they turned injury mode off and every single year they would absolutely tank a month of the year at a time because someone would get hurt and they had minor league players getting huge amounts of ab's.

the one thing about this current ownership group is if they get the 1-2 star level bats that they need they will be a huge fucking problem for other teams with the depth they have built. Top level talent wins games but combining that with quality depth to be able to sustain injuries wins divisions and world series.

[rmc523]

don't forget mark canha who they didn't even really give a chance to despite him being great at every minor league level. The funniest part of the previous regime's ineptitude is that they didn't suck because they lacked star level hitting and pitching before jose died, its that they just fundamentally didn't understand the value of building a deep and complete organization. If they valued building out a complete team next to the stars like Yelich, Stanton, Jose, Ozuna, they would have made the playoffs at least 1 or 2 times more. but instead, every single year they basically built their team as if they turned injury mode off and every single year they would absolutely tank a month of the year at a time because someone would get hurt and they had minor league players getting huge amounts of ab's.

the one thing about this current ownership group is if they get the 1-2 star level bats that they need they will be a huge fucking problem for other teams with the depth they have built. Top level talent wins games but combining that with quality depth to be able to sustain injuries wins divisions and world series.

I don't necessarily think it was that they (the FO) didn't understand the value of building a deep org, but more that at every turn, Loria would trade half the farm/good pieces for a "name" regardless of whether that name was washed up or not.