2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Alcantara, Rojas, Encarnacion/Bleday/ Burdick for Walker, O'Neill and Gorman Ozuna trade becomes Jazz, O'Neill, Gorman and Walker - half the Marlins lineup.

[Nick]

Alcantara, Rojas, Encarnacion/Bleday/ Burdick for Walker, O'Neill and Gorman Ozuna trade becomes Jazz, O'Neill, Gorman and Walker - half the Marlins lineup.

You been watching Marlins games lately Lee? We might want to hold onto Alcantara for a while. Especially since we just signed him (to what now looks like) a very favorable extension for us in the offseason.

[Lee Stone]

You been watching Marlins games lately Lee? We might want to hold onto Alcantara for a while. Especially since we just signed him (to what now looks like) a very favorable extension for us in the offseason.

He's brilliant. Great contract. Couldn't be a more favorable time to move him in order to build a lineup. Lopez, Rogers, Eder, Meyer, Luzardo, Cabrera, Hernandez, Poteet, Perez, Sanchez? make it possible to let him go. Now, don't get me wrong, Alcantara is only moved if Walker is part of the deal.

[fish16]

There is so much I find incorrect here it is difficult to figure out where to start.

First, the continual trope of "but the Rays!" isn't an argument for keeping players and not spending. This is for two reasons. One, they are the only team that consistently does this as this is very hard and not a model to follow the outlier. This isn't sustainable absent near perfection. Saying this is how "low payroll teams" compete is insane - LOW PAYROLL TEAMS DON'T COMPETE(!). These teams aren't consistently winning absent a truly amazing outlier year! Tampa is the only one. Even Milwaukee is spending $30-40m more than the Marlins and that's Correa and a great reliever difference! Two, the goal isn't to get knocked out of the playoffs perpetually in the first round. That's the Rays upside. They absolutely get the most out of what they have - but also never win. The Marlins are a good series away from the same run differential right now, and that does matter. Being an efficiency champion isn't a thing. Surely, making the playoffs 33-50% of the time would be a vast improvement for the Marlins so if you want to say we have to start there great, but this isn't the end game I envision. My position is, you can't operate as a team just looking to be "cost-effective good" always. This is where you are at it seems. While rebuilding, sure. They've done a great job IMO up to the start of 2022 sans the Yelich trade to put them in the position to go for it. But you need to eventually get to "win the whole damn thing" good and the Marlins have -0- shot at doing this internally. Your best argument here is - let's just try to do this home grown and hit home run trades and try and turn middle/non-prospects and aging veterans into superstars. Let's never send out value to get value or really spend unless it's a super efficient contract. This is a mind boggling position which ends up constantly treading water. Big picture, this team needs at least two "Jayson Werth to the Nationals" type deals that are total overpays as that's the only way they are going to bridge the gap to catch up to Atlanta and the Mets. One is a FA (Swanson, Nimmo, Turner, Correa, Xander, etc.), and the other is likely an "over pay" trade where a FV50 guy or two is shot out for the plant the flag move. Considering they have Watson/Salas, it's likely starting with one of them as suggested as we all agree - the 3 big pitcher names are better.

Which brings us to two - trading for a great player. Bryan Reynolds has been on absolute fire May - .870 OPS which is 10th best among OF. He's playing at a 3.5+ WAR pace this year right now with a BABIP 40 points below his career average. Guys have bad months. He's a 4+ WAR player and had a bad month, and he has upside for more - See 2021. Laureano is more difficult with the PED suspension, but ultimately he is also playing at a 3 WAR pace (fangraphs project a 2.5-3 WAR over 500 PA) after being off for a long time. I think you need to ask yourself, what would Pablo cost via trade as Reynolds and Laureano are very arguable Pablo value wise. Reynolds a little more, Laureano a little less. And that’s this year, right now Pablo (who is on a 3+ WAR pace). I think you would LAUGH if some other team offered Watson and a collection of FV45/40+ guys like I suggested above for Pablo, and effectively Poteet (Puk), Burdick (Allen), Bleier (Trivino), and Aguilar (Piscotty). LAUGH. Laureano for a couple mid-level prospects like Fulton/Burdick, what? Is Pablo worth Fulton and Burdick/Bleday to you? I think that is stupid. Tell me again how I am over rating other team's players when the data backs this up? What I suggested above is - the Marlins try and overwhelm Oakland with 1 premium prospect and then numbers via their deep FV45/FV40+ group and take on dead salary (Piscotty) to try and entice them in a hail mary to try and get a guy like this. Please note, you saying I'd move Cabrera/Meyer for Laureano is false, but Sixto? Sure. What has he done? Eder? No, keep the best young MiLB lefty you have. Ultimately, 3 WAR players (Pablo!!!) are REALLY GOOD and if your idea is the team only should try and get floor high 4+/5 WAR players who are even better than Reynolds, well I hate to break it to you but they are rarely available and only about 35-50 of them perpetually exist. Many are cost controlled and unavailable, and many of them cost a lot of money. Much more than Reynolds and Laureano who make $3 and $7 million.

Third, you also continually miss the point with a CF - guys like Reynolds/Laureano can do it competently enough (Laureano probably a bit better) and their hit tool is great/good so it all nets out. Laureano is a SSS issue with defense and they are playing Pache in CF. Reynolds is definitely a part time LF/CF guy. You'd get Reynolds and play him in CF versus lefties and Sanchez, who has done a very fair job which is fantastic, against righties. That's it. It's that easy. And then pray for Burdick and Mesa Jr. in 2-3 years. This gets you into a situation - right now - where if one gets hurt, you aren't decimated with a lack of organizational depth. Sanchez goes down, it's a real problem. Berti has been a revelation this year, but he's not the longterm "2nd" CF option at all. This is all they need. I'd love Jim Edmonds out there too and would continually take shots at Brandon Marsh type guys (doesn't seem like that trade idea would have worked - again baseball is hard and it looks like I'd be wrong in trading for him) but what are the chances they find a guy like him? Everyone in baseball wants that prospect.

Fourth, so you know, the way to stay mired in mediocrity is to keep guys like Aguilar around and pay him just under 10% of your payroll, and then have AAAA players like DLC getting substantial PA not out of desperation. Paying guys like Reynolds/Laureano - who are CHEAP!!!!!! - aren't a payroll concern. They don't even make Aguilar money. Who cares if they cost some prospects when you get years of club control?

Lastly, I don't want to get into ancillary issues, but I wouldn't attack Fangraphs WAR projections when their writers get picked up as analysts for baseball FO jobs literally every year. Also if you remember, I said they overpaid for Stallings but ultimately, shrugged as it was still non elite-prospects. Stallings had a consistent 2+ WAR pace for 3 seasons, and now is 50 BABIP points below his average and he forgot how to play defense. This is a truly insane drop in production on both ends. But, I don't blame them for this one. Deals don't work out. This was still a solid trade - one Yankees fans hated they didn't get him if you remember - and you win more of these than you lose. It happens. See baseball is hard which is why everyone isn't the Rays. That's the thing here, the process of this trade was fine. I can accept bad results (see, Miguel Cabrera) as long as the trade makes sense. I hate how Miller/Maybin turned out, but it made sense. Things like Rodney, Latos, and Yelich (the deal you championed, remember?) are the ones that are dumb AF on paper and results and set you back. No one is advocating for those moves here.


From my perspective here - I think you have a philosophical obstacle in your thought process. I'm not saying you are dumb here by the way - but basically, I think the Marlins have been in a near two decade perpetual rebuild with no real path or vision. This is causing some internal bias to hold onto every prospect and get every ounce of value out of every cost controlled player as that's the only thing we've been talking about for way too long. I honestly get it. Trust me, I LOVE efficiency also. It's why I think we all agree I am obsessed with payroll and have been doing arbitration projections for fun for 20 years. For me, this thought process ship sailed at the end of 2021. They have the core players IMO - they just need these final 3-4 guys. Two of them need to be floor "Laureano" good. They *must* trade out at least one of their top 2-5 prospects (Eury is the only untouchable entire farm), and I'm going to say 5+ of their next 10-15 best guys and get longterm pieces to fit into this actual contending window. They probably could do a good 5 year run right now with the pitchers and Jazz. This *must* be combined with FA later (Nimmo? Swanson? Correa? A Pitcher and trade a different pitcher? We can debate who makes most sense here for sure). Ultimately, they don't need prospects with the amount of club control on the MLB roster right now and low payroll. This is the really important concept here. Really important. Who cares if the farm is bottom 10 (which it might not even dip that low with these trades!) 2023-2024 if you literally don't need to pull from it absent depth relievers, and you have 2 years to rebuild before you have to start worrying about internal replacements. The solution there is not to blow 13 straight 1st round picks as mentioned and spend on IFA. It's time to stop having low payroll and small market stockholm syndrome. It's time TO WIN, so this let's not keep treading water and oh wow, Lewin has a 1.4 WAR next year and cost league minimum that's great value. Who the fuck cares - go out and get at least two 3+ WAR veteran players, upgrade bullpen/bench, and give the pitchers the chance to win the whole damn thing. This moves the needle A LOT. They are a .500 team right now - with dramatic underperformances (Stallings, Rogers, Garcia), injuries (Luzardo, BA/Wendle for stretches), and haven't unleashed Meyer/Cabera yet. The only overachievers are likely Cooper and Berti so it's a net-gain coming soon more than likely. Getting some really legitimate guys right now for minors leaguers - and then adding Luzardo, Meyer, and Cabrera and maybe Stallings and Garcia getting their heads out of their asses is potentially an epic improvement. Maybe Soler is about to go on a tear like last year post all star? It's time to win some baseball games. They have relatively clawed out of the hole and 2 games under .500 in early July isn't excruciating. Get the reenforcements and spend to get them. 18 of your next 28 games are against Cincy, Pitt, Tex, and ChC. The rest are Philly/NYM. Make the moves now which you can absolutely afford prospect wise before the onslaught of August - Atl, double LAD series, SD, and Tampa. You need to win as much as possible and become a more cohesive team right now. And they can do this to win now and not sacrifice the future by getting guys with control. They don't need rentals unless Duvall/Jackson level deals (and that's a final piece not the main piece!). If they do nothing - this is just the continuing line that Bruce is cheap and sucks, and Ng, while handicapped by Bruce, is still doing a bad job with the gameboard in front of her as she clearly has prospects to move and some limited payroll to work with. To close - it is just maddening suggesting 4 year away Watson and secondary prospects to not win with Sandy, Pablo, and Jazz right now is a bad idea, when trading for guys with multiple years of control. No. Win games. Right now. Let's stop thinking this team has 88 win upside as-is. They don't and won't likely ever. Make major moves. Win games.

1) The rays were in the world series 2 years ago and 2 games from winning. The playoffs as a whole are a crapshoot and losing in the first round is not really indicative of the team being built. The regular season records over 162 games are, and they've won at least 90 games (or the equivalent of it in a shortened season) 9 times since 2008 by building the team in the way I outlined.

2) My entire premise of how to build the team isn't that they should be a low payroll team. The fact that they still are is infuriating, but ignoring the reality that they will be a low payroll team whether we like it or not and trying to come up with the team to put us over the top that includes signing guys like Correa or any other high priced fstar ree agent is just a waste of time until they show us otherwise. Yes, if they decide to start spending 115 million per year, that would change how I would build the team, but in reality, that's not their plan and they have shown no indication that they want to stray from that plan. So in the meantime, rather than focusing on how to build a team for a payroll 30-40 million higher than what it is, we need to talk about how to build a winner with our budget constraints, not consistently talk about trading the farm for a good but not great player and than paying him 20+ million a year under the impression that they will be raising their payroll anything significantly any time soon. It sucks, and I think sherman should never have bought the team if this was his plan, but it's just the reality of the situation.

3). "Your best argument here is - let's just try to do this home grown and hit home run trades and try and turn middle/non-prospects and aging veterans into superstars. Let's never send out value to get value or really spend unless it's a super efficient contract. This is a mind boggling position which ends up constantly treading water."

- That's somewhat my argument because it's based in the reality of the situation. I want them to deal from the depth they've built in the system for good quality additions that bolster the home grown core and then make the occasional Morton/Kluber signing to bolster the team without giving up the valuable pieces that are under team control for 6 years unless you are getting a true star. This team will not spend money. We know this. IT sucks, but it's reality. If you want to live in fantasy land and build a team that is a contender under the impression that we will at any point soon have a 110+ million payroll, be my guest, but I live in reality, and that's simply not going to happen. As a result, you have to figure out how to build a team under the budget constraints that we actually face. I don't waste my time in hypotheticals that clearly won't happen, like signing Correa or this team having a middle of the road payroll any time soon. Because we are a bottom 5-10 payroll in baseball, super-efficient contracts are an absolute must to be able to compete with the higher payroll teams. You can live in a world where sherman opens up his wallet, but I'll be just fine talking about building a winning team here in a reality where that will not happen any time soon. Yes, if we have a payroll of 110+ million ever, I'll be happy to overpay players a little and not focus on the efficiency of value per dollar, but there is 0 indication that will happen anytime soon and in my opinion its a waste of breath to even talk about.

4) Reynolds is not a star no matter how many times you want to repeat it. If he was a true CF, sure, but he's graded out significantly worse than even Jesus Sanchez defensively there, so you're not finding a long term CF upgrade, you're acquiring another corner outfielder long term that I just don't think is a star. It's the same reason I didn't want to sign Schwarber or Castellanos for 20 million a year. He had a terrible april, a mediocre may, and a great June. That has all combined for a whopping 1.3 WAR according to FanGraphs because he is terrible defensively in CF. In a vacuum, of course you take him on this team and he's an improvement to the lineup. the question becomes what he costs to acquire, and then what you have to pay him long term to keep him. You're trading top of the rotation talents who you will have under team control for 6 years. That to me is more valuable than a guy who sucks defensively who you're gonna start paying 20 million to a year on a team with a payroll of 80 million, again in the real world. My issue with Reynolds is that you're gonna have to extend him for a ton of money relative to our payroll, and you can use the value provided by those prospects who are MLB ready to contribute to the big league team and then just sign guys in free agency for short term deals to fill the holes on a yearly basis, like the rays do for veterans in free agency almost annually.

5) I would never have brought aguilar back. I would have nontendered him and finally given Lewin a shot to sink or swim and if he sunk, then you move Cooper to 1b full time and you still have a glut of corner outfielders to cover the rest of the lineup.

I think your last point shows just a simple disagreement on how we think about building this team long term, and neither of us are really wrong, it's just we're basing our thoughts on different ideas of what this team is and what this team should be. I would not disagree with you at all on any of these things really if I thought there was any chance in hell of this team becoming a middle of the pack payroll team any time soon. There is simply 0 indication that this will happen. Nothing they have done or said has indicated this is coming any time soon. So why waste time discussing it (outside of how shitty it is to root for a team that does this) instead of talking about how to build a consistent winning team in the budget constraints that are likely to be our reality for the foreseeable future.

All that being said, i'd be quite ok with them trading a couple decent prospects for laureano immediately along with a flier type prospect for a Robertson type or 2, moving Aguilar to the bench, giving Lewin a shot, making Fortes the full time catcher, bringing Meyer up and hopefully get cabrera and eventually sixto and Luzardo back, and moving berti back into the super utility role.

That would be

C- Fortes
1b- Lewin
2b- JAzz
SS- Rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Cooper/Soler
CF- Laureano/Sanchez
RF- Garcia/Sanchez
DH- Cooper/Soler
Bench- Aguilar, Berti, Stallings, Garcia/Sanchez, and fillers
SP- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, (Garrett and Castano until guys get healthy) and then they can figure out the last 2 when guys get healthy out of Meyer, Cabrera, and eventually hopefully sixto and luzardo.

RP- Robertson type for minor prospects X 2, Scott, Floro, Bass, Blier, Okert, and overflow from the rotation guys.

You've then found a CF for the next year and a half like we did for Marte, you've improved the bullpen through cheap additions for free agents to be at the deadline, brought up your clearly ready prospect in Meyer to help in whatever role it ends up being, and then you still have all the prospects moving forward, one of the cheapest and best rotations in baseball with crazy stuff 1-5, and you're still super cheap payroll wise moving forward to eventually make either smart free agent signings like the rays to fill holes on short term deals, or you can make the big splashy signing for a guy like Correa (which I would love) if they ever do plan on actually spending real money on this team.

[Erick]

If Reynolds is even available, I’d be willing to trade prospects for him without a doubt except for Eury who seems like he could be a generational type guy.

I’ve already said it would be cool to add Bednar to it too.

Either way, a player doesn’t have to be a superstar to trade for him, and even the Rays pay guys money when they feel the value is right. (Didn’t the Rays give Kiermaier a long-term deal a few years ago? Reynolds is better, and Laureano is similar).

[fish16]

Wait, Reynolds has 3.5 more years of team control? I thought he was a free agent after either next season or the year after. I think when he signed the 2 year deal for the next 2 years I thought that covered him until he hit free agency. That changes a little bit for me because it changes how much he would realistically demand in an extension which has been my biggest drawback for a while. I still would hesitate to make the deal but I've been mistaken now in thinking about how soon he needs to get paid. What would the cost be to sign him to like a 5 year deal? He's locked in for next year and this year at 6.75 million and then has 2 more years of arbitration and then he hits free agency at 31 according to spotrac. Could you offer him a 4 year extension for 60 million on top of the 2 years he's already under contract for and have him through age 32? that would be a total deal of 6 years (including this year) and 72 million. Is that enough to get it done, because that is something I would trade some prospects for if we could also find a way to dump garcia off on someone else.

[fish16]

If Reynolds is even available, I’d be willing to trade prospects for him without a doubt except for Eury who seems like he could be a generational type guy.

I’ve already said it would be cool to add Bednar to it too.

Either way, a player doesn’t have to be a superstar to trade for him, and even the Rays pay guys money when they feel the value is right. (Didn’t the Rays give Kiermaier a long-term deal a few years ago? Reynolds is better, and Laureano is similar).

The biggest thing you said is that they pay them when the value is right. Kiermaiers deal never paid him more than 12 million in any season. Spotrac says his salary's since 2017 are 3 million, 5.5, 8, 10, 11.5, 12 this year, and then a team option they will likely decline next year for 13 million. He's been a tremendous player for them at a great value since even before he signed that contract. His WAR's dating back to 2014 have been 2.8, 4.3, 3.5, 3.5, 1.4, 2.5, 1.6, 2.6, and 1.0 so far this year. That has been a great deal for them. Those kinds of value deals are fine.

[Erick]

The biggest thing you said is that they pay them when the value is right. Kiermaiers deal never paid him more than 12 million in any season. Spotrac says his salary's since 2017 are 3 million, 5.5, 8, 10, 11.5, 12 this year, and then a team option they will likely decline next year for 13 million. He's been a tremendous player for them at a great value since even before he signed that contract. His WAR's dating back to 2014 have been 2.8, 4.3, 3.5, 3.5, 1.4, 2.5, 1.6, 2.6, and 1.0 so far this year. That has been a great deal for them. Those kinds of value deals are fine.

Reynolds can very well do that and more, and most of his value, unlike Kiermaier, comes from offense which is what this team needs more than anything.

He’s a legit bat, switch hitter with no real platoon splits and has been consistent now for a few years. He’s also the right age and under contract until 2026 which basically covers the years that we’ll have Sandy on the cheap 5/56 extension.

I don’t know what they’re going to do, but I agree with Lou that they should make win now/win while Sandy is here cheap moves. We’re wasting Sandy’s prime at this rate much like the Angels are doing with Trout/Ohtani (the Angels being the high payroll version of dysfunction).

[fish16]

its unlikely all of these guys ever get healthy at the same time, but both cabrera and sixto threw 30 pitch bullpens today (though it feels like sixto has been treading water doing the same shit for 2 years now). If those 2 and Luzardo are healthy heading into next year, its an absolute disgrace if we don't go after correa in free agency this offseason if and when he opts out. Again, its all on paper and unlikely to ever be fully healthy at the same time, but I long for a time where they are healthy and this franchise decides to spend money on a long term guy like Correa.

C- Fortes
1b- Lewin
2b- Jazz
SS- Correa
3b- Wendle
LF- Soler
CF- Sanchez
RF- Anderson
DH- Cooper
SP- Sandy, Pablo, Sixto, Cabrera, Rogers
RP- Meyer, Luzardo, and whoever the fuck else.

sixto ever getting healthy and being the SP we remember would be such an enormous bonus that it feels like no one even feels like is remotely possible anymore but who the fuck knows. It feels like 25 years ago but what he did and what he showed in 2020 was nothing short of dominant at times. You could tell me his cubs playoffs start where he battled through 5 innings and cooper hit that huge home run to win the game late was 10 years ago and I wouldn't argue with you.

Edit- oh ya, and eury perez is 19 and dominating double a and is the #17 prospect in baseball who is doing everything he is humanly capable of to prove he's gonna be able to contribute at some point next year.

Sixto getting healthy and either being what he showed out of the rotation again or just being a filthy closer would change a lot for me in terms of what I'm willing to give up and spend on in free agency moving forward.

[Erick]

We’re back to playing good competition, and back to losing. So maybe we won’t even be buyers to be fair.

[fish16]

eury with 6 innings, 1 run, 10 k's and no walks again tonight. he's not got a 3.05 ERA, 87 k's, and 14 walks in 62 innings in AA. he's 19 until next April. Realistically he will not be up here until at least the service time cut off next year and even more likely the super 2 cutoff next year, but he can help this club now. He's got enough pure stuff to do what castano and garrett have done so far this year. I h honestly don't blame them for waiting until at least may of next year, but the kid is a complete fucking phenom at this point. In an out of sport comparison, its like what the bucks got in giannis. Giannis was drafted and grew like 3 extra inches and became a physical freak, eury has done similar in the baseball context.

If they ever get healthy at the same time, imagine a rotation of some combo of Sandy, Pablo, Sixto, Eury, Cabrera, Luzardo, Rogers, Meyer, with the overflow in the bullpen.

[Nick]

Eury Perez is unreal.

6 IP 1 run 2 hits 10 Ks 0 BBs

[fish16]

We’re back to playing good competition, and back to losing. So maybe we won’t even be buyers to be fair.

they haven't played well against good teams all year. There is a clear talent discrepancy that can be overshadowed against bad teams or when sandy and pablo pitch, but they clearly arent a contender or anywhere close. Jazz and soler are out, but its been clear even when they are in the lineup that they cant matchup with the good teams in the league for a few years now, even when they made the playoffs in 2020. Being willing to spend money on a 3-4 year deal for correa would go a long way, but ill probably go to my grave with hopes like that given how the sherman experience has gone so far.

Why cant we just have a jeff bezos or ballmer buy the team and just spend stupid money. The fans of this team deserve better.

They arent that far away with the right combination of ownership and front office, but count me out when it comes to having hope for this ownership group ever doing what it takes.

[Nick]

eury with 6 innings, 1 run, 10 k's and no walks again tonight. he's not got a 3.05 ERA, 87 k's, and 14 walks in 62 innings in AA. he's 19 until next April. Realistically he will not be up here until at least the service time cut off next year and even more likely the super 2 cutoff next year, but he can help this club now. He's got enough pure stuff to do what castano and garrett have done so far this year. I h honestly don't blame them for waiting until at least may of next year, but the kid is a complete fucking phenom at this point. In an out of sport comparison, its like what the bucks got in giannis. Giannis was drafted and grew like 3 extra inches and became a physical freak, eury has done similar in the baseball context.

If they ever get healthy at the same time, imagine a rotation of some combo of Sandy, Pablo, Sixto, Eury, Cabrera, Luzardo, Rogers, Meyer, with the overflow in the bullpen.

Beat me to it. He’s officially a Beckett and Jose level prospect.

[fish16]

Eury Perez is unreal.

6 IP 1 run 2 hits 10 Ks 0 BBs

I long for a rotation next may of Sandy, Pablo, Sixto, Meyer, and Eury with a bullpen of Luzardo, Rogers, and Cabrera.