2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Erick]

I don’t get the point of waiting with Eury if he’s ready to be honest.

Same, to even more of an extent, with Meyer.

It’s ridiculous how little urgency the organization has to win. Castano has been ok, but, realistically, he’s not good. These guys are better than Garrett too, and Rogers has been bad, as well. You’re not serious about competing with those guys as the 3-5 starters right now when you have better alternatives.

[fish16]

Beat me to it. He’s officially a Beckett and Jose level prospect.

the SP talent to me is why if you make a trade for a closer this year you get a rental for cheap. too many options for next year for the rotation to not be able to field a ridiculously dominant rotation of whatever 5 end up winning the jobs on top of the overfill forming a dominant back end of the bullpen.

It never seems to work out at the same time with injuries, but with the time tables of everyone returning from injury, you have the option if you have a competent owner of having a ridiculously talented and filthy rotation and a lineup with talent like Jazz, Correa, and a lot of other pieces that are enough to form a playoff team. It sucks to continuously look forward to next year, but I hope they really go for it next year when it comes to starting the year with the best SP rotation and not worrying about service time AND spending money on free agent talent for the lineup like Correa and hopefully some sort of long term catcher option.

[Erick]

By the way, I’m all in on Brandon Nimmo after the season.

[Nick]

I don’t get the point of waiting with Eury if he’s ready to be honest.

Same, to even more of an extent, with Meyer.

It’s ridiculous how little urgency the organization has to win. Castano has been ok, but, realistically, he’s not good. These guys are better than Garrett too, and Rogers has been bad, as well. You’re not serious about competing with those guys as the 3-5 starters right now when you have better alternatives.

It may just be the organization being overprotective but pitch count would be an issue at the major league level. They don’t let him go past 80 pitches. Maybe they could use him out of the pen.

[fish16]

I don’t get the point of waiting with Eury if he’s ready to be honest.

Same, to even more of an extent, with Meyer.

It’s ridiculous how little urgency the organization has to win. Castano has been ok, but, realistically, he’s not good. These guys are better than Garrett too, and Rogers has been bad, as well. You’re not serious about competing with those guys as the 3-5 starters right now when you have better alternatives.

meyer to me at this point makes no sense why he isn't up here. He's clearly too good for AAA. The only reason his numbers are not as dominant as they seem is because he clearly pitched a few games injured. Even if its as a closer, he should be up here. Its just more service time bullshit. What you're saying is what I've been saying in the game thread. They can claim the "we're trying to win" bullshit that everyone can see through, but they are a 2nd class or 3rd class franchise, and they truly arent trying to win. Im fine with eury not coming up until may next year to get the 1 extra year, but he should be up here the literal second that they get the extra year of service time out of him. Dont wait for the super 2 bullshit, call him up and let him figure it out at the major league level. Next year will be year 6 of this "build", go for it from opening day.

Like i was saying earlier, we are all discounting what sixto is and can be again, but if he anywhere close to what he was, that is a completely huge piece moving forward, and it's why i complete;y disagree with throwing him in any deal until he's healthy again. You don't trade a talent like that at his lowest value. It's hard to see through the weeds with all the pain in the ass injuries, and those injuries may never all get these guys right at the same time, but if they do in time for opening day next year, look out. If its looking good for all those guys come December for next year, if they don't go and do whatever it takes to sign correa I'm done with this team. this team is ready to win, if you can get all the guys healthy and not have to give up farm pieces for the best bat this lineup has had in 5 years, MLB should force this ownership to sell.

Eury, Sixto, Luzardo, Cabrera, and Meyer being added to the mix and all being healthy is one of the deepest and most ridiculous "stuff" young rotation and overall pitching staff's baseball has seen in years.

[fish16]

It may just be the organization being overprotective but pitch count would be an issue at the major league level. They don’t let him go past 80 pitches. Maybe they could use him out of the pen.

eury I completely get. While we all are curious and want to see him, it makes sense why he wouldn't be up here until may of next year. Meyer being in AAA still, at this point, is just an insult to the die hard fans like all of us who take the time to post here. I don't even care whether its in the rotation or as the closer, but there is no reason other than for super 2 status, for him to be in AAA still. Castano has done everything he is capable of and honestly I cant even get made seeing him get torched tonight. To be throwing him out there every 5th day at this point while throwing Ng out there to gaslight everyone and say they are doing everything to win this year at this point is just an insult.

[fish16]

if you take out the 2 starts for Meyer before he hit the DL where he was clearly trying to pitch through an injury, he's given up just 24 hits, 9 ER's, 57 k's and 10 bb's in 48 innings. i might be off on the calculations doing this on the fly but that's a 1.68 ERA and .70 WHIP outside of two injury filled starts.

[fish16]

MILB updated after Eury's start- 13 starts, 62 innings, 87 k's, 14 walks, 3.05 ERA, and a .188 BAA. That includes his first 3 starts of the year which was 12 innings, 10 ER's, and 5 of the walks. It's just been flat out dominance after a normal period of struggling adjusting to a new level after just a couple starts in AA last year.

Even in April, the overall numbers weren't impressive, but he had 30 k's, 5 walks, and a 1.12 WHIP. The kid is just dominant. He's 19. Do you remember being 19 and what you were?

[Erick]

Wasting a historical year from Sandy because there’s no urgency to win is a reason why they get 15,000 fans on a good night.

Daniel Castano is not a top 5 starter in the organization, and it sucks to say because he’s done his best to fill in, but it was only a matter of time with him.

The pitch count thing shouldn’t be an issue because, again, Braxton Garrett doesn’t go past 5 either unless he’s pitching against the Nationals, and I actually don’t remember the last time Rogers went past 5 innings. So, if the reason for not calling some of these guys up is pitch count, I’ll take the 5 innings from guys with better stuff.

[fish16]

Wasting a historical year from Sandy because there’s no urgency to win is a reason why they get 15,000 fans on a good night.

Daniel Castano is not a top 5 starter in the organization, and it sucks to say because he’s done his best to fill in, but it was only a matter of time with him.

The pitch count thing shouldn’t be an issue because, again, Braxton Garrett doesn’t go past 5 either unless he’s pitching against the Nationals, and I actually don’t remember the last time Rogers went past 5 innings. So, if the reason for not calling some of these guys up is pitch count, I’ll take the 5 innings from guys with better stuff.

completely agree and its what I said after leaving the game yesterday. gaslighting the fanbase might work to the casual fan who sees the overall record, but anyone watches this team or follows as closely as anyone who posts on this board does, realizes it's bullshit. It's always next year or the picture for the future, but there's never the risk of an ownership group willing to make an investment that cant be guaranteed a return that might be worth it 2-3 years down the line as an investment worth taking for potentially developing a consistent winner that will bring the fanbase out

Like I said in the game thread earlier today, its circular reasoning on behalf of the ownership/front office that holds this team back. If you had a front office with vision, you'd see the passion for this team as a winner that would bring the fanbase out more consistently. If you're a front office who refuses to spend unless a broken fan base proves they will support it first, you'll never win. We need an ownership group that sees the desire for a winning team in this market, and is willing to lose money for a year or 2 potentially for a long term strategic goal. It's why it was absolutely critical that the group that bought this franchise from loria was a group that had stupid money that could spend stupid money without worrying about every last dollar from the second they took control of this franchise.

this current front office sees a lack of support currently and says "why invest 10-15 million dollars when the fans wont support you." They think "why support a fickle fanbase with players who might compete when we cant get fans out to the ballpark". A front office with vision would see a core of SP and a few lineup pieces that is not far from contention with a few key additions. They would see a team that can't compete realistically without 3-4 more core pieces that honestly wouldn't cost a lot and would say "this fanbase has been broken, lets risk losing 15 million for the potential of bringing a winner to this town that only supports winning teams, and lets go out and do what it takes to at the very least compete into the end of the year for a playoff spot." The revenue gained from at least having competitive and meaningful games into September and potentially October home games would at the very least come close to making up for the investment made in improving this team.

No one in a position of power in this franchise has realized for going on 20 years that it takes an initial investment into the team and as a result the fanbase itself for the fans to come out. So we're at a point where the fanbase is saying prove you'll give me a winner and I'll come watch your product, and a front office that says come out and give us some revenue and we'll prove to you we will do what it takes to give you a winner. After 20 years of shit teams and nothing but disappointment with this franchise with a history of breaking this fanbases heart, why on earth would you think anyone would spend their hard-earned money to come support this without proving you as an ownership group wants to support this yourself.

And it leads to the question I ask myself every time I've gone to the ballpark from northern broward county to watch this team lose not only since this current ownership has taken the helm, but even dating back way into the last ownerships tenure, why should I spend my fucking money supporting your bullshit, if you're not even willing to spend your own money to support your own team?

[Namaste]

I long for a rotation next may of Sandy, Pablo, Sixto, Meyer, and Eury with a bullpen of Luzardo, Rogers, and Cabrera.

It will never happen.

If someone would have told me in 2020 that in July of 2022 (with us a game under .500) that we would be sending Castano out I would have laughed in their face.

[fish16]

It will never happen.

If someone would have told me in 2020 that in July of 2022 (with us a game under .500) that we would be sending Castano out I would have laughed in their face.

fair, but a man can have some delusions for a franchise that has not allowed for anything other than that since its inception.

[lou]

Wait, Reynolds has 3.5 more years of team control? I thought he was a free agent after either next season or the year after. I think when he signed the 2 year deal for the next 2 years I thought that covered him until he hit free agency. That changes a little bit for me because it changes how much he would realistically demand in an extension which has been my biggest drawback for a while. I still would hesitate to make the deal but I've been mistaken now in thinking about how soon he needs to get paid. What would the cost be to sign him to like a 5 year deal? He's locked in for next year and this year at 6.75 million and then has 2 more years of arbitration and then he hits free agency at 31 according to spotrac. Could you offer him a 4 year extension for 60 million on top of the 2 years he's already under contract for and have him through age 32? that would be a total deal of 6 years (including this year) and 72 million. Is that enough to get it done, because that is something I would trade some prospects for if we could also find a way to dump garcia off on someone else.

FOR THE LOVE OF FUCK. You're arguing with me about his value and you don't even understand it. AAAAHHHHHHHH. Thanks for the complete validation.

[lou]

1) The rays were in the world series 2 years ago and 2 games from winning. The playoffs as a whole are a crapshoot and losing in the first round is not really indicative of the team being built. The regular season records over 162 games are, and they've won at least 90 games (or the equivalent of it in a shortened season) 9 times since 2008 by building the team in the way I outlined.

2) My entire premise of how to build the team isn't that they should be a low payroll team. The fact that they still are is infuriating, but ignoring the reality that they will be a low payroll team whether we like it or not and trying to come up with the team to put us over the top that includes signing guys like Correa or any other high priced fstar ree agent is just a waste of time until they show us otherwise. Yes, if they decide to start spending 115 million per year, that would change how I would build the team, but in reality, that's not their plan and they have shown no indication that they want to stray from that plan. So in the meantime, rather than focusing on how to build a team for a payroll 30-40 million higher than what it is, we need to talk about how to build a winner with our budget constraints, not consistently talk about trading the farm for a good but not great player and than paying him 20+ million a year under the impression that they will be raising their payroll anything significantly any time soon. It sucks, and I think sherman should never have bought the team if this was his plan, but it's just the reality of the situation.

3). "Your best argument here is - let's just try to do this home grown and hit home run trades and try and turn middle/non-prospects and aging veterans into superstars. Let's never send out value to get value or really spend unless it's a super efficient contract. This is a mind boggling position which ends up constantly treading water."

- That's somewhat my argument because it's based in the reality of the situation. I want them to deal from the depth they've built in the system for good quality additions that bolster the home grown core and then make the occasional Morton/Kluber signing to bolster the team without giving up the valuable pieces that are under team control for 6 years unless you are getting a true star. This team will not spend money. We know this. IT sucks, but it's reality. If you want to live in fantasy land and build a team that is a contender under the impression that we will at any point soon have a 110+ million payroll, be my guest, but I live in reality, and that's simply not going to happen. As a result, you have to figure out how to build a team under the budget constraints that we actually face. I don't waste my time in hypotheticals that clearly won't happen, like signing Correa or this team having a middle of the road payroll any time soon. Because we are a bottom 5-10 payroll in baseball, super-efficient contracts are an absolute must to be able to compete with the higher payroll teams. You can live in a world where sherman opens up his wallet, but I'll be just fine talking about building a winning team here in a reality where that will not happen any time soon. Yes, if we have a payroll of 110+ million ever, I'll be happy to overpay players a little and not focus on the efficiency of value per dollar, but there is 0 indication that will happen anytime soon and in my opinion its a waste of breath to even talk about.

4) Reynolds is not a star no matter how many times you want to repeat it. If he was a true CF, sure, but he's graded out significantly worse than even Jesus Sanchez defensively there, so you're not finding a long term CF upgrade, you're acquiring another corner outfielder long term that I just don't think is a star. It's the same reason I didn't want to sign Schwarber or Castellanos for 20 million a year. He had a terrible april, a mediocre may, and a great June. That has all combined for a whopping 1.3 WAR according to FanGraphs because he is terrible defensively in CF. In a vacuum, of course you take him on this team and he's an improvement to the lineup. the question becomes what he costs to acquire, and then what you have to pay him long term to keep him. You're trading top of the rotation talents who you will have under team control for 6 years. That to me is more valuable than a guy who sucks defensively who you're gonna start paying 20 million to a year on a team with a payroll of 80 million, again in the real world. My issue with Reynolds is that you're gonna have to extend him for a ton of money relative to our payroll, and you can use the value provided by those prospects who are MLB ready to contribute to the big league team and then just sign guys in free agency for short term deals to fill the holes on a yearly basis, like the rays do for veterans in free agency almost annually.

5) I would never have brought aguilar back. I would have nontendered him and finally given Lewin a shot to sink or swim and if he sunk, then you move Cooper to 1b full time and you still have a glut of corner outfielders to cover the rest of the lineup.

I think your last point shows just a simple disagreement on how we think about building this team long term, and neither of us are really wrong, it's just we're basing our thoughts on different ideas of what this team is and what this team should be. I would not disagree with you at all on any of these things really if I thought there was any chance in hell of this team becoming a middle of the pack payroll team any time soon. There is simply 0 indication that this will happen. Nothing they have done or said has indicated this is coming any time soon. So why waste time discussing it (outside of how shitty it is to root for a team that does this) instead of talking about how to build a consistent winning team in the budget constraints that are likely to be our reality for the foreseeable future.

All that being said, i'd be quite ok with them trading a couple decent prospects for laureano immediately along with a flier type prospect for a Robertson type or 2, moving Aguilar to the bench, giving Lewin a shot, making Fortes the full time catcher, bringing Meyer up and hopefully get cabrera and eventually sixto and Luzardo back, and moving berti back into the super utility role.

That would be

C- Fortes
1b- Lewin
2b- JAzz
SS- Rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Cooper/Soler
CF- Laureano/Sanchez
RF- Garcia/Sanchez
DH- Cooper/Soler
Bench- Aguilar, Berti, Stallings, Garcia/Sanchez, and fillers
SP- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, (Garrett and Castano until guys get healthy) and then they can figure out the last 2 when guys get healthy out of Meyer, Cabrera, and eventually hopefully sixto and luzardo.

RP- Robertson type for minor prospects X 2, Scott, Floro, Bass, Blier, Okert, and overflow from the rotation guys.

You've then found a CF for the next year and a half like we did for Marte, you've improved the bullpen through cheap additions for free agents to be at the deadline, brought up your clearly ready prospect in Meyer to help in whatever role it ends up being, and then you still have all the prospects moving forward, one of the cheapest and best rotations in baseball with crazy stuff 1-5, and you're still super cheap payroll wise moving forward to eventually make either smart free agent signings like the rays to fill holes on short term deals, or you can make the big splashy signing for a guy like Correa (which I would love) if they ever do plan on actually spending real money on this team.

1) The rays were in the world series 2 years ago and 2 games from winning. The playoffs as a whole are a crapshoot and losing in the first round is not really indicative of the team being built. The regular season records over 162 games are, and they've won at least 90 games (or the equivalent of it in a shortened season) 9 times since 2008 by building the team in the way I outlined.

2) My entire premise of how to build the team isn't that they should be a low payroll team. The fact that they still are is infuriating, but ignoring the reality that they will be a low payroll team whether we like it or not and trying to come up with the team to put us over the top that includes signing guys like Correa or any other high priced fstar ree agent is just a waste of time until they show us otherwise. Yes, if they decide to start spending 115 million per year, that would change how I would build the team, but in reality, that's not their plan and they have shown no indication that they want to stray from that plan. So in the meantime, rather than focusing on how to build a team for a payroll 30-40 million higher than what it is, we need to talk about how to build a winner with our budget constraints, not consistently talk about trading the farm for a good but not great player and than paying him 20+ million a year under the impression that they will be raising their payroll anything significantly any time soon. It sucks, and I think sherman should never have bought the team if this was his plan, but it's just the reality of the situation.

3). "Your best argument here is - let's just try to do this home grown and hit home run trades and try and turn middle/non-prospects and aging veterans into superstars. Let's never send out value to get value or really spend unless it's a super efficient contract. This is a mind boggling position which ends up constantly treading water."

- That's somewhat my argument because it's based in the reality of the situation. I want them to deal from the depth they've built in the system for good quality additions that bolster the home grown core and then make the occasional Morton/Kluber signing to bolster the team without giving up the valuable pieces that are under team control for 6 years unless you are getting a true star. This team will not spend money. We know this. IT sucks, but it's reality. If you want to live in fantasy land and build a team that is a contender under the impression that we will at any point soon have a 110+ million payroll, be my guest, but I live in reality, and that's simply not going to happen. As a result, you have to figure out how to build a team under the budget constraints that we actually face. I don't waste my time in hypotheticals that clearly won't happen, like signing Correa or this team having a middle of the road payroll any time soon. Because we are a bottom 5-10 payroll in baseball, super-efficient contracts are an absolute must to be able to compete with the higher payroll teams. You can live in a world where sherman opens up his wallet, but I'll be just fine talking about building a winning team here in a reality where that will not happen any time soon. Yes, if we have a payroll of 110+ million ever, I'll be happy to overpay players a little and not focus on the efficiency of value per dollar, but there is 0 indication that will happen anytime soon and in my opinion its a waste of breath to even talk about.

4) Reynolds is not a star no matter how many times you want to repeat it. If he was a true CF, sure, but he's graded out significantly worse than even Jesus Sanchez defensively there, so you're not finding a long term CF upgrade, you're acquiring another corner outfielder long term that I just don't think is a star. It's the same reason I didn't want to sign Schwarber or Castellanos for 20 million a year. He had a terrible april, a mediocre may, and a great June. That has all combined for a whopping 1.3 WAR according to FanGraphs because he is terrible defensively in CF. In a vacuum, of course you take him on this team and he's an improvement to the lineup. the question becomes what he costs to acquire, and then what you have to pay him long term to keep him. You're trading top of the rotation talents who you will have under team control for 6 years. That to me is more valuable than a guy who sucks defensively who you're gonna start paying 20 million to a year on a team with a payroll of 80 million, again in the real world. My issue with Reynolds is that you're gonna have to extend him for a ton of money relative to our payroll, and you can use the value provided by those prospects who are MLB ready to contribute to the big league team and then just sign guys in free agency for short term deals to fill the holes on a yearly basis, like the rays do for veterans in free agency almost annually.

5) I would never have brought aguilar back. I would have nontendered him and finally given Lewin a shot to sink or swim and if he sunk, then you move Cooper to 1b full time and you still have a glut of corner outfielders to cover the rest of the lineup.

I think your last point shows just a simple disagreement on how we think about building this team long term, and neither of us are really wrong, it's just we're basing our thoughts on different ideas of what this team is and what this team should be. I would not disagree with you at all on any of these things really if I thought there was any chance in hell of this team becoming a middle of the pack payroll team any time soon. There is simply 0 indication that this will happen. Nothing they have done or said has indicated this is coming any time soon. So why waste time discussing it (outside of how shitty it is to root for a team that does this) instead of talking about how to build a consistent winning team in the budget constraints that are likely to be our reality for the foreseeable future.

All that being said, i'd be quite ok with them trading a couple decent prospects for laureano immediately along with a flier type prospect for a Robertson type or 2, moving Aguilar to the bench, giving Lewin a shot, making Fortes the full time catcher, bringing Meyer up and hopefully get cabrera and eventually sixto and Luzardo back, and moving berti back into the super utility role.

That would be

C- Fortes
1b- Lewin
2b- JAzz
SS- Rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Cooper/Soler
CF- Laureano/Sanchez
RF- Garcia/Sanchez
DH- Cooper/Soler
Bench- Aguilar, Berti, Stallings, Garcia/Sanchez, and fillers
SP- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, (Garrett and Castano until guys get healthy) and then they can figure out the last 2 when guys get healthy out of Meyer, Cabrera, and eventually hopefully sixto and luzardo.

RP- Robertson type for minor prospects X 2, Scott, Floro, Bass, Blier, Okert, and overflow from the rotation guys.

You've then found a CF for the next year and a half like we did for Marte, you've improved the bullpen through cheap additions for free agents to be at the deadline, brought up your clearly ready prospect in Meyer to help in whatever role it ends up being, and then you still have all the prospects moving forward, one of the cheapest and best rotations in baseball with crazy stuff 1-5, and you're still super cheap payroll wise moving forward to eventually make either smart free agent signings like the rays to fill holes on short term deals, or you can make the big splashy signing for a guy like Correa (which I would love) if they ever do plan on actually spending real money on this team.

This post is really stupid and I can't go line by line after you post something so atrocious like that Reynolds post above. Mute button, kicked off the show, come back next week.

The model is Milwaukee - when you are ready, sell the house for a Yelich. And move payroll to at least $100-110m and you can create a small 2-4 year window before the kids hit major arbitration. That gives you a chance to win besides hoping an entire roster of perfect (like Tampa/Cleveland) works out. Even Oakland trades for Marte to TRY.

Absent that, we are all chickens without our heads running around while the owner profits.

I say - LET'S TRY. Marlins don't need these prospects with all the MLB control. Eury is the only farm untouchable.

[lou]

We’re back to playing good competition, and back to losing. So maybe we won’t even be buyers to be fair.

They have 18 games against horrible teams coming up - they just need to not get swept by Mets/Phillies.

Also you make these trades right now with an eye to next year - you get a lot of control with guys like Reynolds and Laureano, etc.