2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Jimmy Yacabonis allowed the GW HR to Pete Alonso today, but he's becoming an arm to watch out of the bullpen.

I like the way Yacabonis and Zach Pop have been looking recently. This is what we have to look forward to with this team. Yay.

Pop is going to be a solid 3-5th RHP out of the bullpen. Bass, Bender, Poteet, and Pop is probably pretty good. It's just a question of who is the 5th RHP next year - are they cheaping out, converting Hernandez full-time, Sixto emerges, or spend some money.

I think a more interesting longterm bullpen question for me is Rogers. WTF is happening with him? I saw some stats he is losing major velocity 3rd inning and on. Is he hurt? Or does he need to move to the bullpen as a max effort guy? He had major RP projections all through the minors, so was last year a fluke?

I suspect this is a summer 2023 decision, but maybe the longterm view (assuming Pablo bounces after arbitration) should be Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer/Cabrera, and Eder.

[Erick]

Pop is going to be a solid 3-5th RHP out of the bullpen. Bass, Bender, Poteet, and Pop is probably pretty good. It's just a question of who is the 5th RHP next year - are they cheaping out, converting Hernandez full-time, Sixto emerges, or spend some money.

I think a more interesting longterm bullpen question for me is Rogers. WTF is happening with him? I saw some stats he is losing major velocity 3rd inning and on. Is he hurt? Or does he need to move to the bullpen as a max effort guy? He had major RP projections all through the minors, so was last year a fluke?

I suspect this is a summer 2023 decision, but maybe the longterm view (assuming Pablo bounces after arbitration) should be Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer/Cabrera, and Eder.

I would think Bass is a candidate to be traded this season, no?

And yeah, I’m surprised there haven’t been more questions about Rogers as a starter. I said earlier in this thread that there have to be questions about him starting or out of the bullpen.

Braxton Garrett is another lefty who seems to have a two-pitch mix that would be better out of the pen.

[Todd]

Not sure why no one mentions Holloway as a long term Bullpen option.

[fish16]

Not sure why no one mentions Holloway as a long term Bullpen option.

Probably something to do with the fact that he has no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand

[lou]

I would think Bass is a candidate to be traded this season, no?

And yeah, I’m surprised there haven’t been more questions about Rogers as a starter. I said earlier in this thread that there have to be questions about him starting or out of the bullpen.

Braxton Garrett is another lefty who seems to have a two-pitch mix that would be better out of the pen.

He's really good right now on a cheap option next year. Combined with this being a win-now team (regardless of current results), I am expecting them to keep him as the veteran right hander. Bass, Bender, Poteet, and Pop/rotating option arms is a good RHP bullpen core, needing something on the top. Whether that be a FA reliever or Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto conversion. This team doesn't need more FV40 guys like what Bass would bring. They have a ton of depth right now so keeping these cheap luxuries is more valuable IMO. I think they'd need a Burdick/Fulton level guy for him or not worth it.

I think Rogers was so good last year you let him work through this, but a bad start next year and its likely to the bullpen. Eury/Eder may be legitimate post super-2 options next year so that's the line in the sand for me absent truly horrible showings. Plus, no reason to change out Bleier (contract + FIP good), Okert (results good, FIP iffy), and Scott (good FIP) right now. They have 3 solid bullpen lefties even if none are studs.

[rmc523]

He's really good right now on a cheap option next year. Combined with this being a win-now team (regardless of current results), I am expecting them to keep him as the veteran right hander. Bass, Bender, Poteet, and Pop/rotating option arms is a good RHP bullpen core, needing something on the top. Whether that be a FA reliever or Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto conversion. This team doesn't need more FV40 guys like what Bass would bring. They have a ton of depth right now so keeping these cheap luxuries is more valuable IMO. I think they'd need a Burdick/Fulton level guy for him or not worth it.

I think Rogers was so good last year you let him work through this, but a bad start next year and its likely to the bullpen. Eury/Eder may be legitimate post super-2 options next year so that's the line in the sand for me absent truly horrible showings. Plus, no reason to change out Bleier (contract + FIP good), Okert (results good, FIP iffy), and Scott (good FIP) right now. They have 3 solid bullpen lefties even if none are studs.

They seem to do the opposite of what they should, so they’ll probably ship out half the team and begin a “mini build”.

[lou]

They seem to do the opposite of what they should, so they’ll probably ship out half the team and begin a “mini build”.

Yea we'll see. I would say an instant reload and not mini build.

If they are out of it, they should ship out a BUNCH of guys. Aguilar, one of Wendle/Anderson/Rojas, and a ton of the secondary arms (Bass, Sulser, Floro, Hernandez, Bleier, Okert) at minimum. If they can get three more FV45 guys from that grouping (or even some sky high FV40+ guys), that is really a good big picture move. If the price is right, Berti, Stallings, and Soler too, and if the price is REALLY right Cooper. They can live without these guys too as the clear money and Berti and Cooper will never be more valuable. They should probably keep them though unless they get a really good offer.

This is like high $60s/low $70s depending on which guy you keep in the either/or ones. They should have money to spend on top of this plus can always move Watson/Salas/Lewis, a good prospect arm like Cabrera/Eder/Fulton, Lewin, Bleday, and those guys above to supplant this. Honestly, that could be a lot coming back in trades as this could be 10-12 guys here, and 3-4 of them may have real value like Anderson, Watson, and Cabrera.


Stallings, Fortes
Cooper/Lewin
Jazz
______, Rojas/Wendle
Wendle/Anderson, Berti
Sanchez
______, DLC/Burdick
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer/Cabrera, Rogers
____/Meyer/Cabrera, Bass, Poteet, Bender, Hernandez/Pop/Meyer/Cabrera/other RHP
_____, Scott, Bleier/Okert/Garrett/Castano

(Not listed - Sixto, Eury, Eder, Bleday)


That's a good/great team above if they do it right. You can easily sell me that team projects to be 32-35 WAR and four blank lines of production. It's the same broken record, are they going to actually get the two big bats they need, and what's the bullpen strategy, especially will some of the starters turning into relievers. Let's hope Bruce lets Ng sign one (Nimmo/Swanson or better), and Ng makes smart trades to figure out the other 3 blank lines and not break the bank.

This should be VERY doable and is VERY telling if Bruce/Kim fail for a second offseason.

[lou]

Here's also an idea if the above + additions aren't exciting enough - this is easily under a $100m team.

(1) Swanson - FA. This is the big money. Go for it. $150m.

(2) Gorman - Wendle, CABRERA, Bleier, Sulser, and Lewis/Cappe/Morisette/Nunez
(before I get yelled at here, Marlins will take something else back in the form of 1-2 lower level FV45/40 prospects years away)

The idea here is simple - Arenado is likely not an opt out, and if he is their top prospect is a 3B above Gorman. This is an across the board immediate pitching infusion, and Wendle does not suck for today and is controlled next year. Longterm, they get a good 2B prospect to help their own pipeline. How I see it is, Gorman is a step above Cabrera, and these other guys don't really matter, so it's seeing if St. Louis will dance on some longterm upside with Gorman, to effectively swap him for Cabrera and much needed NOW help. The kicker is sending them over one of those other longterm 2B types so it'll be hard for them to get killed here even if Cabrera gets hurt. This probably also works for Meyer depending on what else is coming back (I think Meyer is a little above Cabrera FWIW).So then 3B is taken care of longterm.

(3) Now Laureano. He's pretty cheap, but the Marlins have really locked up the IF with control here for 4+ years minimum, so we're now talking about Salas isn't really needed and he becomes a centerpiece for Laureano. They can probably send over Lewin and Sixto/Bleday in a really nice 3-1 for Oakland. None of these guys matter if they get a 3+ WAR CF for 2+ years.

(4) Aguilar, Anderson, and relievers - trade for younger reliever arms


So you can do three of these now and hope for the best this year, and then go for broke with Swanson. Next year looks like this:


Stallings, Fortes
Cooper
Jazz
SWANSON, Rojas
GORMAN, Berti
J. Sanchez
LAUREANO, Burdick
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers
Bass, Poteet, Bender, Pop, _____
Scott, Okert, Garrett/Castano

With Eury, Eder, and Fulton all in AA or higher to account for pitching depth (as well as whatever you got for Anderson and gang), and down in A ball is Watson, 2022 # 1 and 2 pick, Mack, R. Hernandez, and at least two of Lewis/Cappe/Morisette. That's a real solid top 10 prospects and the MLB team is fully controlled for years and years besides Cooper, Soler, Pablo, and old relievers. I'll take the bet they can find cheap 1B/DH mashers


Very doable. They have tons of resources to play with.

[Namaste]

Lots of interesting ideas there, lou, but I’m not crazy about us finally spending a ton of money on a FA who has a .390 BABIB this year. I know Swanson has had a pretty solid last 3 years but still. Especially after the (so far) Garcia disaster.

[fish16]

Lots of interesting ideas there, lou, but I’m not crazy about us finally spending a ton of money on a FA who has a .390 BABIB this year. I know Swanson has had a pretty solid last 3 years but still. Especially after the (so far) Garcia disaster.

agreed, there's also no chance they spend real money to get a guy in that price range. it sucks, but that seems like reality at this point. they will make minor free agent signings like Soler and try to act like they are significant, then try to build around them with cost controlled guys, whether that's through our current system or through trades from the current core for other teams cost controlled guys.

[Namaste]

Marlins fans didn’t deserve Sherman/Jeter getting awarded the team over Jorge Mas.

[lou]

Lots of interesting ideas there, lou, but I’m not crazy about us finally spending a ton of money on a FA who has a .390 BABIB this year. I know Swanson has had a pretty solid last 3 years but still. Especially after the (so far) Garcia disaster.

I fully believe in a BABIP regression and he is over his head, but his 2019-2021 rate all at sustainable levels is a 3.2 WAR player. If he is turning the corner (at 28!), there is growth room here. He certainly has pedigree. He's going to be at a 3.2+ WAR pace this year even adjusting his average.

Everything is dependent on price, but a 3+ WAR SS at 29 years old piques my interest on a 5+ year deal. That's all I'm saying here.

Or do the same thing above, sign Nimmo, trade for a SS (or keep Wendle and pray)

[lou]

agreed, there's also no chance they spend real money to get a guy in that price range. it sucks, but that seems like reality at this point. they will make minor free agent signings like Soler and try to act like they are significant, then try to build around them with cost controlled guys, whether that's through our current system or through trades from the current core for other teams cost controlled guys.

If they do not they have failed twice in a row and I'm really, really done. The only reason I still can't get over them is they haven't made "the move" yet.

But if that doesnt come soon, see ya never

[lou]

Marlins fans didn’t deserve Sherman/Jeter getting awarded the team over Jorge Mas.

This does seem to be a major problem. Hopefully he learns from his mistakes of this offseason.

[rmc523]

This does seem to be a major problem. Hopefully he learns from his mistakes of this offseason.

I hope they understand the stakes. But I said that last offseason and they didn’t do much of note, and yet I’m still here. Shame on me I guess.