2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

It's finally here - Fangraphs top prospects

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miami-ma...rospects-2022/


There is some fun stuff here

-Salas over Watson
-Lewis, Cappe, Morisette, and Nasim Nunez over Bleday

Just started reading. Liked this.

"Within the last few weeks, scouts who have seen P

[lou]

TLDR

60
-Eury is acetastic

50
-Meyer mid-rotation starter
-Salas probably moves to 3B but projects as an every day starter
-Watson's whiffs major concern, but really athletic and may end up in CF as may not have ability to stay at short. High variable outcome.
-Cabrera will be good in some role if healthy

45+
-Eder some relief risk, but he has some skills and needs to pitch
-Lewis and...
-Cappe have huge upside and potential, but risk in bat profile

45
-Burdick - just going to quote this one. Before this was "he may strike out a lot"....... BUT THIS IS BIG and first time I've really seen someone give him real credit he can play CF. -While he’s seen time at all three outfield positions, he is fine in center and actually quite adept at going back on balls, and he’s fearless around the wall, perhaps because he’s an indestructible cyborg. This gives Burdick room to have a below-average hit tool and still play a significant big league role.
-Fulton has a deceptive delivery, and is likely a back or the rotation guy as we can't expect velocity. This one is sad.
-Morisette - Future IF reserve kind of guy with hit/contact tool

40+
-Fortes - Has the makings of a solid backup. This is good. Nice improvement for him.... why was Jackson/Henry the targets then???
-Mack - Huge upside and can play 2B/3B also, very young
-Nunez - Amazing defender, Rey Ordonez type. Could be a great reserve if hits
-Sixto - Injuries land him here, but he can throw if he can stay healthy

40
-Bleday isn't likely going to hit
-R. Hernandez - a projectable young catcher
-Poteet - Backend SP/reliever
-Garrett- Has gained some velocity and may get more interesting if that keeps ticking up years post TJ

There are another 10 or so interesting guys, but nothing too major to discuss

[lou]

So this pumps me up on Eury, Meyer, Salas, Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Moristee, Fortes, Mack, Nunez, R. Hernandez, Poteet, and Garrett. This is a nice squad.

I'm fine with the negatives with Cabrera, Fulton, and Sixto. If there are some RP here, so be it. Looks like Sandy/Eury/Luzardo/Meyer/Rogers is going to be the longterm view once Pablo FA occurs.

I'm majorly disappointed on Watson, Bleday, and McCambley (not discussed above). These were their # 1 picks, and their IFA squad (Salas, Lewis, Cappe) is smoking this. This is really bad. That being said, they do have years of control to figure it out and fix swing paths. McCambley I thought was going to project as a better FV40 or better guy/RP prospect, but I guess he is more ordinary. Minor quib with him though.

[Nick]

TLDR

60
-Eury is acetastic

50
-Meyer mid-rotation starter
-Salas probably moves to 3B but projects as an every day starter
-Watson's whiffs major concern, but really athletic and may end up in CF as may not have ability to stay at short. High variable outcome.
-Cabrera will be good in some role if healthy

45+
-Eder some relief risk, but he has some skills and needs to pitch
-Lewis and...
-Cappe have huge upside and potential, but risk in bat profile

45
-Burdick - just going to quote this one. Before this was "he may strike out a lot"....... BUT THIS IS BIG and first time I've really seen someone give him real credit he can play CF. -While he’s seen time at all three outfield positions, he is fine in center and actually quite adept at going back on balls, and he’s fearless around the wall, perhaps because he’s an indestructible cyborg. This gives Burdick room to have a below-average hit tool and still play a significant big league role.
-Fulton has a deceptive delivery, and is likely a back or the rotation guy as we can't expect velocity. This one is sad.
-Morisette - Future IF reserve kind of guy with hit/contact tool

40+
-Fortes - Has the makings of a solid backup. This is good. Nice improvement for him.... why was Jackson/Henry the targets then???
-Mack - Huge upside and can play 2B/3B also, very young
-Nunez - Amazing defender, Rey Ordonez type. Could be a great reserve if hits
-Sixto - Injuries land him here, but he can throw if he can stay healthy

40
-Bleday isn't likely going to hit
-R. Hernandez - a projectable young catcher
-Poteet - Backend SP/reliever
-Garrett- Has gained some velocity and may get more interesting if that keeps ticking up years post TJ

There are another 10 or so interesting guys, but nothing too major to discuss

I'm starting to get on the give Fortes a shot to be the long-term catcher train. I know major league ABs is SSS, but he's been a .700+ OPS guy at high levels of minors + majors. 500+ ABs now. If we only need to acquire a real solid backup for him (or just keep Stallings around at a low cost) that would be huge. Give Burdick a long look in CF this year. (if we're out of it) and maybe you only have to go out and get a masher regardless of position come the offseason, which would seem like an easier proposal than trying to have to specifically get a CF and Catcher. (granted they failed at this last off-season)

[Nick]

Johnston, McIntosh and Mesa Jr. should be on the list. Not just mentions.

[lou]

So if I'm looking at this and figuring out what they *should* trade for the inevitable bat:

1 - Salas or Watson - find a believer in one of them. They have a lot of extra depth after Jazz with Cappe, Lewis, Morisette, and Nunez (even McCants). Bank on this depth and move one of them. This also would be easier to do if you know, they signed Correa/Turner. I think someone would love Watson and won't be worried about intro season whiffs. So it's probably him and keep Salas.

2 - Cabrera. I think they role with Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer, and Rogers longterm, with Pablo being kept for 2 years to bridge the gap to everyone. Then hope you get another 4/5 SP out of Eder/Sixto/Fulton/Garrett/Poteet in case someone gets hurt. Cabrera is the one to move to me. Pablo makes a lot of sense also, but he's really too good to move right now and probably should just be kept to try and win.

3 - Lewin Diaz. See below.

4 - Bleday. Seems like a high profile 3rd/4th piece in a deal to throw in and make it someone else's problem. If Burdick is playing adequate CF along with Sanchez, he has no shot at finding real time here. Name value will count for something.


Watson, Cabrera, Lewin, Bleday, and outside top 20-25 guys. That has gotta get you something pretty good and doesn't impact things too much. That's probably one major and one minor trade within there.


That sets up this:

Stallings, Fortes
Cooper
Jazz, Berti
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson*
Sanchez
_______, Burdick
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers
____, Bass, Bender, Poteet, Hernandez
Bleier, Scott, Okert

AAA - Eury, Sixto, Eder, Henry, Jerar
AA - Fulton

*They got to keep 5 2B/SS/3B on roster and I think these 5 are good. Anderson can play some 1B against RHP. No room for Lewin unless Soler opts out.


So that is probably $80m dollars in 2023, give or take. Pretty cheap. There is also money to move here - they could shed $27m+ by moving Soler (or opt out), Anderson, Bleier, and Hernandez. Those 4 make up a real chunk of this budget.

I think it makes a lot of sense to use say Watson, Lewin, Bleday, outside top 20-25 types, and dump Bleier and/or Hernandez on someone (those two clear $5m+ in payroll next year) to go get a real CF. This is probably Laureano (Oakland may have to kick something else back here depending, like AJ Puk) as he is cheap and playing a 3+ WAR pace. They'd still have Cabrera to dangle here which is important. He could get something else big - maybe another Gallen/Jazz type deal.

If Cabrera is the other bullpen line though, that team is ready to go and pretty good. They will go as far as the SP health will take them. The perceivable weakness would be lack of star power with a superstar 4-5 WAR bat, and youth in the bullpen. Sounds familiar.

Of course, then let's think do they want to contend. Get rid of Wendle/Anderson, and now you're around $79 million (and Bleier/Hernandez being removed can lower further). How much more is Bruce willing to spend to upgrade literally anything on that list above? Basically - trade for Laureano/Puk with minor leaguers headlined by Watson, trade Anderson for prospects, dump Bleier/Hernandez anywhere, keep Cabrera for bullpen, make Pop/Holloway/whoever # 5 RHP for pen, and sign Correa/Turner and that team is banging for under $110m.

Same story as this offseason.

[lou]

I'm starting to get on the give Fortes a shot to be the long-term catcher train. I know major league ABs is SSS, but he's been a .700+ OPS guy at high levels of minors + majors. 500+ ABs now. If we only need to acquire a real solid backup for him (or just keep Stallings around at a low cost) that would be huge. Give Burdick a long look in CF this year. (if we're out of it) and maybe you only have to go out and get a masher regardless of position come the offseason, which would seem like an easier proposal than trying to have to specifically get a CF and Catcher. (granted they failed at this last off-season)

I am more than content with Stallings/Fortes/Henry as the top 3 for next year. Stallings still has a .259 BABIP (career .302) this season. There is some bad luck here. What I can't explain is the defense, from going from Johnny Bench this offseason to below average is something else. This all likely regresses to the mean and he becomes a low .600 OPS bat who plays above average defense. Depending on the defense, he's a mid/low range starter or superior backup. Either is fine with what they paid for him. Fortes who knows. He can earn as much time as he can handle for me right now. He seems to have risen to the occasion at the MLB level. Ideally, maybe Stallings/him develop an interesting R/L split and they can really play them both up. Henry is a fine third catcher if someone gets hurt. This is a good catcher set-up for under likely $4m next year. Nothing to do here at all, but I'd draft another catcher 2nd/3rd round in the draft. Pray for Mack/Hernandez long term. I think the days of hoping Banfield becomes an above average player are done.

Regardless of Burdick, they need a CF. They need some immediate MLB infusion to the OF, and it has to be at CF even if Burdick looks good for something moving forward. Laureano floor here. Go get someone. Laureano hits lefties harder than righties btw. Garcia "should" historically. Burdick is a righty. That could create a really nice OF vs LHP of Burdick-Laureano-Garcia (Soler DH), and vs RHP Sanchez replaces one of them (.803 OPS for Sanchez vs RHP). That's a potentially very good set up (as you could do the same in the IF with Rojas, Berti, and pick your poison of Jazz/Wendle/Anderson vs LHP, and the IF would hit RHP pretty hard with Jazz-Wendle-Anderson/Berti and Rojas on the bench for a defensive replacement if needed).

It's basically the team above adding Laureano only, with as mentioned, a future contending upgrade being kicking Anderson/Wendle/Rojas likely off the team and getting the BIG upgrade with Correa/Turner/maybe Arenado, etc. if Bruce will spend bottom 22 money.


All of this says to me is Watson/Salas and Cabrera should be the ones to move in some sort of CF package, and use Lewin and Bleday as secondary pieces as Lewin is showing some moderate potential and some scout will believe they can fix JJ so sell the name.

They are REALLY REALLY lucky their shrewd moves with Salas, Lewis, Cappe, Eder, Burdick, etc. are going to bail their asses out on farm depth versus some of their larger primo picks they have bombed (or dumb trades like Castillo). This is a backhanded compliment and seems par for the course - they do enough right to not be bad but more is needed.

[Nick]

The big domino to fall (or not fall) is if we keep Pablo, that's a huge decision the FO will have to make, and it could be a make or break decision. If you can get a prospect the likes of Gabriel Moreno or Jordan Walker I think you gotta think about dealing him.

If we could go out and get a star player, I think we might be able to live with a lesser CF/C combo:

2023 Scenario: (Assumptions: Pablo Stays & Soler opts out, Aguilar, Bleier & Anderson gone)

C: Fortes/Stallings (Henry AAA)
1B: Cooper
2B: Jazz
3B: Nolan Arenado (obviously this is the hardest sell, would take probably 7 years / $200 million or around there)
SS: Wendle/Rojas
LF: Garcia
CF: Kevin Kiermaier/Burdick
RF: Sanchez
DH: Maybe this is where you go out and make a trade, lefty bat, I'll just throw a name out there, Jared Walsh from the Angels

1. Jazz
2. Arenado
3. Walsh
4. Cooper
5. Sanchez
6. Garcia
7. Wendle/Rojas
8. Kiermaier/Burdick
9. Fortes/Stallings

Then keep Berti as super utility guy that's your 13 position players.

Rotation:

1. Sandy
2. Pablo
3. Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto (1 in rotation, 1 in bullpen, 1 inevitably injured)
4. Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett ( 1 in rotation, 1 in bullpen, 1 in AAA
5. $10 million free agent pickup (Taijuan Walker?, Mike Clevinger?)

AAA rotation

1-2 from the list of 6 guys I listed above, let's say Sixto, Garrett
3. Eury Perez
4. Jake Eder
5. Castano

Bullpen

Anchored by let's say Cabera and Luzardo

Then you have:
Scott
Bass
Floro
Okert
Poteet
Bender

You add probably around $45-$50 million to next year's payroll in the bolded names, but Soler, Aguailar, Bleier and Anderson coming off the books saves you about $25 million. Doesn't seem unreasonable, but this is the Marlins, so why did I waste my time? lol

[rmc523]

The big domino to fall (or not fall) is if we keep Pablo, that's a huge decision the FO will have to make, and it could be a make or break decision. If you can get a prospect the likes of Gabriel Moreno or Jordan Walker I think you gotta think about dealing him.

If we could go out and get a star player, I think we might be able to live with a lesser CF/C combo:

2023 Scenario: (Assumptions: Pablo Stays & Soler opts out, Aguilar, Bleier & Anderson gone)

C: Fortes/Stallings (Henry AAA)
1B: Cooper
2B: Jazz
3B: Nolan Arenado (obviously this is the hardest sell, would take probably 7 years / $200 million or around there)
SS: Wendle/Rojas
LF: Garcia
CF: Kevin Kiermaier/Burdick
RF: Sanchez
DH: Maybe this is where you go out and make a trade, lefty bat, I'll just throw a name out there, Jared Walsh from the Angels

1. Jazz
2. Arenado
3. Walsh
4. Cooper
5. Sanchez
6. Garcia
7. Wendle/Rojas
8. Kiermaier/Burdick
9. Fortes/Stallings

Then keep Berti as super utility guy that's your 13 position players.

Rotation:

1. Sandy
2. Pablo
3. Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto (1 in rotation, 1 in bullpen, 1 inevitably injured)
4. Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett ( 1 in rotation, 1 in bullpen, 1 in AAA
5. $10 million free agent pickup (Taijuan Walker?, Mike Clevinger?)

AAA rotation

1-2 from the list of 6 guys I listed above, let's say Sixto, Garrett
3. Eury Perez
4. Jake Eder
5. Castano

Bullpen

Anchored by let's say Cabera and Luzardo

Then you have:
Scott
Bass
Floro
Okert
Poteet
Bender

You add probably around $45-$50 million to next year's payroll in the bolded names, but Soler, Aguailar, Bleier and Anderson coming off the books saves you about $25 million. Doesn't seem unreasonable, but this is the Marlins, so why did I waste my time? lol

Yeah, I unfortunately don’t have any confidence that they’re going to do what needs to be done

[lou]

The big domino to fall (or not fall) is if we keep Pablo, that's a huge decision the FO will have to make, and it could be a make or break decision. If you can get a prospect the likes of Gabriel Moreno or Jordan Walker I think you gotta think about dealing him.

If we could go out and get a star player, I think we might be able to live with a lesser CF/C combo:

2023 Scenario: (Assumptions: Pablo Stays & Soler opts out, Aguilar, Bleier & Anderson gone)

C: Fortes/Stallings (Henry AAA)
1B: Cooper
2B: Jazz
3B: Nolan Arenado (obviously this is the hardest sell, would take probably 7 years / $200 million or around there)
SS: Wendle/Rojas
LF: Garcia
CF: Kevin Kiermaier/Burdick
RF: Sanchez
DH: Maybe this is where you go out and make a trade, lefty bat, I'll just throw a name out there, Jared Walsh from the Angels

1. Jazz
2. Arenado
3. Walsh
4. Cooper
5. Sanchez
6. Garcia
7. Wendle/Rojas
8. Kiermaier/Burdick
9. Fortes/Stallings

Then keep Berti as super utility guy that's your 13 position players.

Rotation:

1. Sandy
2. Pablo
3. Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto (1 in rotation, 1 in bullpen, 1 inevitably injured)
4. Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett ( 1 in rotation, 1 in bullpen, 1 in AAA
5. $10 million free agent pickup (Taijuan Walker?, Mike Clevinger?)

AAA rotation

1-2 from the list of 6 guys I listed above, let's say Sixto, Garrett
3. Eury Perez
4. Jake Eder
5. Castano

Bullpen

Anchored by let's say Cabera and Luzardo

Then you have:
Scott
Bass
Floro
Okert
Poteet
Bender

You add probably around $45-$50 million to next year's payroll in the bolded names, but Soler, Aguailar, Bleier and Anderson coming off the books saves you about $25 million. Doesn't seem unreasonable, but this is the Marlins, so why did I waste my time? lol

Unless Soler lights it up, I don't think he is an opt-out today. He gets to a 2.5 WAR pace and I think then maybe. They'd have to trade Bleier to clear his $3.5 also to note.

Arenado would have to opt out of 6/$144 and do better than that with an age 32 year old contract. I don't see it happening. That's a big risk for him. He's doing well this year, but his defense has dropped since 2019 and it's not like the bat is improving. I think he'd do marginally better at best so does he like St. Louis? This is a pass for me for the same reasons as Starling - old. I don't want 38/39 year old Arenado.


Scanning the free agency list - Brandon Nimmo is screaming out to me here. He'll be 30 and has very good plate discipline so he'll probably age gracefully. This is the Jayson Werth type deal for me from this class - he'll be $100-150m but he's worth it for THIS team to me.


Stallings, Fortes
Cooper
Jazz
______, Rojas
Wendle, Berti
Sanchez
NIMMO, Burdick
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers
____, Bass, Bender, Poteet, Hernandez
_____, Scott, Okert

AAA - Eury, Sixto, Eder, Henry, Jerar
AA - Fulton


This is probably like $90+ million as Nimmo is going to make some bucks, and only missing Anderson and Bleier. I'm just getting rid of Bleier in a salary dump/attached to bigger trade here.

Let's think big picture here.

Salas and Cappe are likely 3B, Morisette and Lewis likely 2B best positions. If Watson is the big trade candidate, the team needs a long-term SS as it's not Jazz. Get the SS, and assume you will develop 2B/3B enough.

Then use Watson, Cabrera, Anderson, Lewin, Bleday, all these secondary pitchers you can move (Sulser, Floro, Hernandez) and find a long-term young SS for right now, and projectable arms. Internally, you could just make Braxton and Sixto those blank line relievers, but you could probably get something better among those trades above. Or, sign a Tepera/Loup level guy for next year and be under $100m.

Nimmo isn't exactly the hope of Correa/Trea, but does make a lot of sense. If they combine that with a "Jazz" level SS prospect, that's a real nice longterm set up developing. Pablo is kept here, as well as Eury/Eder/Sixto/Fulton so there should be a SP pipeline.

You probably draft college bat with first rounder, and then 2nd round go another SP, and 3rd round shoot for the moon catcher.


This makes a lot of sense to me actually. Nimmo + young explosive SS. I get their current interest in Laureano if they can buy low and keep all of Eury/Meyer/Watson/Salas/Eder, but absent a beneficial trade there, maybe we have this all wrong and Nimmo is the answer in the outfield, and blow out the farm/Anderson for a SS.

[Nick]

Unless Soler lights it up, I don't think he is an opt-out today. He gets to a 2.5 WAR pace and I think then maybe. They'd have to trade Bleier to clear his $3.5 also to note.

Arenado would have to opt out of 6/$144 and do better than that with an age 32 year old contract. I don't see it happening. That's a big risk for him. He's doing well this year, but his defense has dropped since 2019 and it's not like the bat is improving. I think he'd do marginally better at best so does he like St. Louis? This is a pass for me for the same reasons as Starling - old. I don't want 38/39 year old Arenado.


Scanning the free agency list - Brandon Nimmo is screaming out to me here. He'll be 30 and has very good plate discipline so he'll probably age gracefully. This is the Jayson Werth type deal for me from this class - he'll be $100-150m but he's worth it for THIS team to me.


Stallings, Fortes
Cooper
Jazz
______, Rojas
Wendle, Berti
Sanchez
NIMMO, Burdick
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers
____, Bass, Bender, Poteet, Hernandez
_____, Scott, Okert

AAA - Eury, Sixto, Eder, Henry, Jerar
AA - Fulton


This is probably like $90+ million as Nimmo is going to make some bucks, and only missing Anderson and Bleier. I'm just getting rid of Bleier in a salary dump/attached to bigger trade here.

Let's think big picture here.

Salas and Cappe are likely 3B, Morisette and Lewis likely 2B best positions. If Watson is the big trade candidate, the team needs a long-term SS as it's not Jazz. Get the SS, and assume you will develop 2B/3B enough.

Then use Watson, Cabrera, Anderson, Lewin, Bleday, all these secondary pitchers you can move (Sulser, Floro, Hernandez) and find a long-term young SS for right now, and projectable arms. Internally, you could just make Braxton and Sixto those blank line relievers, but you could probably get something better among those trades above. Or, sign a Tepera/Loup level guy for next year and be under $100m.

Nimmo isn't exactly the hope of Correa/Trea, but does make a lot of sense. If they combine that with a "Jazz" level SS prospect, that's a real nice longterm set up developing. Pablo is kept here, as well as Eury/Eder/Sixto/Fulton so there should be a SP pipeline.

You probably draft college bat with first rounder, and then 2nd round go another SP, and 3rd round shoot for the moon catcher.


This makes a lot of sense to me actually. Nimmo + young explosive SS. I get their current interest in Laureano if they can buy low and keep all of Eury/Meyer/Watson/Salas/Eder, but absent a beneficial trade there, maybe we have this all wrong and Nimmo is the answer in the outfield, and blow out the farm/Anderson for a SS.

A Nimmo/Swanson combo would work for me as well, just replace Arenado and Kiermaier with them and I'm good with that.

[lou]

A Nimmo/Swanson combo would work for me as well, just replace Arenado and Kiermaier with them and I'm good with that.

A lot of money for both. Swanson also has a .385 BABIP, but he's still good as a .250-.260 hitter.

If they sign either to a $100-150m deal over 5-6 years, and trade for the other of CF/SS with Watson/Cabrera/Anderson as the prime pieces, count me in. That is a great team on paper assuming we have health from Luzardo and Meyer, and Rogers isn't a -0-

[Erick]

It’s pretty obvious that Don Mattingly doesn’t care about this team. It’s like he’s guaranteed a job regardless of what happens.

It’s one thing for a manager to make bad decisions. They all make bad decisions from time to time.

But it’s crazy how much he doesn’t care.

[Nick]

Nick Neidert threw 5 scoreless innings at AAA tonight. Talk about the forgotten man.

[Erick]

Jimmy Yacabonis allowed the GW HR to Pete Alonso today, but he's becoming an arm to watch out of the bullpen.

I like the way Yacabonis and Zach Pop have been looking recently. This is what we have to look forward to with this team. Yay.