2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Mish is currently reporting "5 year, 'over' 55M", so it's around 11M per year average.....I'd imagine it's probably stair stepped (though with so little payroll now, it'd make sense to at the very least have it even or front load it some.

I'd view it as fully guaranteeing arbitration at a very healthy number (call it 3/$25) and two free agency years are (2/$30). This is very high and not much of a discount at all. I'd have to check, but I bet it's the largest deal for a pitcher his age/service time.

My hunch is, this is going to come in 5/$48-50, with a 6th year team option for $5-7 (hence getting to 5/$55) and unknown what insane option might be on the back end of that. $20-25m easily. I'll be very surprised if this is a straight 5/$55 as it's a record setter, and he doesn't have the stats to warrant that. He's great and I think it's clear here that I love him and wouldn't trade him but for getting some Vlad/Ohtano/Wander level player in the package, but Aaron Nola got nowhere near this amount and he was significantly better same time of their careers. If this is a 5/$55 straight, Marlins just reset the market for arbitration pitchers big time.

[lou]

Oh, and I hope it's really front loaded. Maybe you go cheap this year (to get 1 year veterans), and ballon it 23/24 when you have even more club controlled guys on the team, and Rogers/Jazz/Sanchez/etc. only hit arb 1.

Maybe they'll impress us.

[sports24/7]

Sandy extension is big, and encouraging. Hopefully it's the jumpstart of a big offseason.

Mish is being reluctant to spill the beans on any rumors. Says "I'm not ruining their offseason leaking their plans". When asked about rumors going around that a Buxton deal could be close (I haven't heard that anywhere), he said he "can't discuss that right now". So it does sound like they're at least working on that deal, or you'd think he'd just say it's not happening. That still remains realistic option #1 for me.

[rmc523]

I'd view it as fully guaranteeing arbitration at a very healthy number (call it 3/$25) and two free agency years are (2/$30). This is very high and not much of a discount at all. I'd have to check, but I bet it's the largest deal for a pitcher his age/service time.

My hunch is, this is going to come in 5/$48-50, with a 6th year team option for $5-7 (hence getting to 5/$55) and unknown what insane option might be on the back end of that. $20-25m easily. I'll be very surprised if this is a straight 5/$55 as it's a record setter, and he doesn't have the stats to warrant that. He's great and I think it's clear here that I love him and wouldn't trade him but for getting some Vlad/Ohtano/Wander level player in the package, but Aaron Nola got nowhere near this amount and he was significantly better same time of their careers. If this is a 5/$55 straight, Marlins just reset the market for arbitration pitchers big time.

Per MLBTR, you're correct:

"While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM)."

Even if it's not a "discount", it wouldn't be a trainwreck, as he's been consistent/improving, so the team is safeguarding himself against him performing even better and being even more expensive.

And, beyond that/more importantly, it shows other teams and FAs that we do mean business and that we will extend players when warranted.

[rmc523]

Sandy Leon signed a minor league deal with the Guardians, so he's gone for now.

[fish16]

Sandy Leon signed a minor league deal with the Guardians, so he's gone for now.

he seemed like a good clubhouse guy but my god he might have been one of the worst hitters I've ever seen in a marlins uniform.

[lou]

Per MLBTR, you're correct:







Even if it's not a "discount", it wouldn't be a trainwreck, as he's been consistent/improving, so the team is safeguarding himself against him performing even better and being even more expensive.

And, beyond that/more importantly, it shows other teams and FAs that we do mean business and that we will extend players when warranted.

I agree. The "worst" case scenario is probably the Marlins paying $1.5m ($7.5m overall) too much on a 5/$55 deal. Spread over 5 years, who gives a shit. We'll call it the shitty franchise tax.

He's going to be worth 2-3x that if he's healthy, if not more. Being so far from free agency and not making any real money to date is quite the leverage eh?

[sports24/7]

Mish doesn’t sound encouraged on Sixto. His actual words were “forget him”. Yikes.

[lou]

Mish doesn’t sound encouraged on Sixto. His actual words were “forget him”. Yikes.

What? Context?

[sports24/7]

What? Context?

In some thread on Twitter someone brought up Sixto, and Mish responded with “forget him”. When someone commented his reply was “Listen if you want truth on these subjects I’m your guy, but some just want the positive outlook at all times. There are obviously some very good things happening but this is not one of them IMO.”

So that doesn’t sound good. Especially after the weirdness that was his rehab last year. Makes you wonder how committed he is.

[rmc523]

In some thread on Twitter someone brought up Sixto, and Mish responded with “forget him”. When someone commented his reply was “Listen if you want truth on these subjects I’m your guy, but some just want the positive outlook at all times. There are obviously some very good things happening but this is not one of them IMO.”

So that doesn’t sound good. Especially after the weirdness that was his rehab last year. Makes you wonder how committed he is.

Yikes, but also not entirely surprising. He's been known for conditioning issues for years before we got him, and it's continued.

[Todd]

Without Sixto that Realmuto trade is probably one of the worst ever.

To put it in perspective Realmuto produced more value last season in 47 games than Alfaro did in 3 years with the Marlins.

[Namaste]

I think it’s funny that because Mish said “forget him” about Sixto, Marlins Twitter lost their minds and he now has zero value.

[Lee Stone]

If Buxton and the Marlins would agree on a 5-year $100M extension, what player or players would you be willing to trade for him?

[lou]

If Buxton and the Marlins would agree on a 5-year $100M extension, what player or players would you be willing to trade for him?

Ignoring the premise of this is very difficult as Buxton signing away ages 28-32 without getting 33/34 included one year from free agency doesn't add up (basically, he becomes Starling Marte in 5 years begging for 3rd/4th guaranteed years at healthy clips so why would he do that? This is his moment to lock in those prices for 7-8 years and give away his prime)....

Buxton played like a 9+ WAR player last year per 600/PA, and for his career played as a 4+ WAR guy when healthy. His floor is very, very, high with his defense and out of this world base running. It's basically trading for Yelich. Yes - Yelich's contract was half that price at the time of trade, but, Yelich was undersold by the Marlins, we have inflation of prices (including prospect packages) across the league, and Buxton is coming off a "best player in baseball when healthy" type season. I don't think his injury concerns undersell him at all. You can't acquire these types of players so you swing for the fences when available. He is a franchise changer if he plays 120 games a year.

So what's the Yelich trade for the Marlins? Probably something like this in a 5-2, and Garver is also included. The bolds is I think what I'd expect. Two top prospects, a really nice third player, and two decent flyers including a play now pitcher like Neidert who may just need a scenary change.

Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto/Luzardo/Eury/Eder (we'll keep Sixto here until I see more info at WTF Mish is talking about?)
Watson/Jesus Sanchez/Bleday/Salas
Burdick/Nicolas/Fulton/Mack/Misner/E. Hernandez/Thompson
Poteet/Neidert/Holloway/Garrett/Fitterer
Outside top 30 prospect arm

I'd call the Buxton contract 7/$150 (with an 8th year club option) FWIW.

I'd do it. Blow it all out - and keep Pablo(!) - and then sign another bat and lefty reliever.