Season Super Game Thread

[Erick]

Yelich has a 5.3 WAR season, so I don't know what you mean there. Let's see Realmuto get there before saying Yelich has never had a season as good a Realmuto? Fangraphs projects Realmuto at 4.8, 4.9, and 4.9 for this season as of now (BABIP is high, there will be a drop off). Also this doesn't include Yelich having a 4.1 and 4.4 WAR season, two thresholds Realmuto has not gotten to yet versus his duel 3.5 WAR seasons the last two years.

JT has certainly taken it to another level, but you're really selling Yelich short here. He has been better, and has a better contract situation. JT is not at his level to expect a better overall package. Maybe he nets a better prospect then Brinson, but the 2-4th players in the deal will be downgraded. But that's OK depending on who it is. Robles would be great.

Contreras is also still a star catcher who is basically projected as 4 WAR this year, and he has been arguably struggling. JT should be over him for the ASG, but he's still a really good player and can breakout overnight.

I understand your points about the contract, but my point is Realmuto being a catcher has to boost his trade value quite a bit. It's truly the sorriest position in the game right now, and Realmuto has been a steady presence (even if we dismiss this as a career year, he's proven to have a floor of a 3.5 WAR catcher which is incredibly valuable).

Yelich is a "CF'er" who realistically profiles better as a LF'er that's not going to hit for much power considering he still hasn't figured out how to elevate the ball.

Yelich has the more valuable contract and I understand you're trading contracts at the end of the day, but Realmuto, to me, is the more valuable player moving forward. 2.5 years of control is more than enough time to retrieve prospects if the team that acquires him wishes to trade him one day for whatever reason.

It seems like almost everyone is confident in trading Realmuto as long as a guy like Robles is in the deal, but I expect more than one prospect regardless of who the prospect is.

Of the players who are supposedly available at this trade deadline, none should have more trade value than JT. It should be a nice haul if he gets traded.

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Furthermore, I'm not sure why we should dismiss JT's improved .BABIP. It could just be that he's much improved as a player, which is saying a lot since he was already good.

Anyway, his .BABIP is higher because he's hitting the ball much harder. His hard-hit rate is up over 44%. His average exit velo is up over 90. His power numbers are up because he's improved his launch angle. Also helps that, especially compared to other catchers, he runs very well. .BABIP might be a bit inflated, but there are reasons why. The advanced metrics support his improved numbers.

Not to mention how much he's improved defensively from when he started.

He's easily one of the most underrated players in the game right now.

[lou]

I understand your points about the contract, but my point is Realmuto being a catcher has to boost his trade value quite a bit. It's truly the sorriest position in the game right now, and Realmuto has been a steady presence (even if we dismiss this as a career year, he's proven to have a floor of a 3.5 WAR catcher which is incredibly valuable).

Yelich is a "CF'er" who realistically profiles better as a LF'er that's not going to hit for much power considering he still hasn't figured out how to elevate the ball.

Yelich has the more valuable contract and I understand you're trading contracts at the end of the day, but Realmuto, to me, is the more valuable player moving forward. 2.5 years of control is more than enough time to retrieve prospects if the team that acquires him wishes to trade him one day for whatever reason.

It seems like almost everyone is confident in trading Realmuto as long as a guy like Robles is in the deal, but I expect more than one prospect regardless of who the prospect is.

Of the players who are supposedly available at this trade deadline, none should have more trade value than JT. It should be a nice haul if he gets traded.

A 5 WAR is a 5 WAR regardless of where it is though. Hard to think JT is more valuable when he is going to double the contract value over the same years. He's going to get paid if he keeps this up and that money does factor into the equation.

But I agree, he is absolutely the most valuable guy rumored to be traded at the deadline. Way more then Machado. Philly getting Machado is probably the best thing that can happen to the Marlins so the Nationals freak out and go overboard.

They'd need more then a 1-1 for Robles also. Adding Kieboom is aggressive, but adding in Antuna/Garca, Read/Severino, and another RP arm (ideally a lefty, Raquet?) would make sense at a minimum. That's a really nice trade for the Marlins based on Robles ceiling, and even more so if you can get them to absorb Prado or Ziegler in the deal.

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But I'm still with you - option 1 is sign him long term. Back up the dumptruck of money and BUILD with him for 5-6 years. He's worth it even if he halves this production.

[tjfla]

Washington is considering offering Robles,Severino,and 1 or 2 low level prospects(NOT Antuna or Garcia) and then ball is in Miami's court

If they aren't offered Robles,Soto,Tucker,Vlad Jr,or another Top 10 Prospect in baseball its expected they hold onto him then offer an extension in Oct.

He accepts and he stays. He says NO and he is dealt at Winter Meetings to Houston? Oakland? Colorado? for a Yelich type package

[rmc523]

http://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/ml...mpression=true

The possibility remains the Marlins will elect to offer Realmuto, who would not be a free agent until after the 2020 season, a long-term contract to become a centerpiece in their plans for the future.


“If they approached me, I wouldn’t be opposed to having the conversation, but right now my focus is on the season and the rest of the year and the second half and we’ll discuss that stuff when it comes,” Realmuto said. “The fact that they would think of me that way, to build around me, is an honor.”

That's different than the "trade me now" of the offseason (though that never came from him).

[tjfla]

http://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/ml...mpression=true



That's different than the "trade me now" of the offseason (though that never came from him).

Came from his agent and Miami did try to trade him but didnt get the deal they wanted. When they couldn't find a deal his "trade request" became public and still hasn't taken it back

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Dodgers offered Yusniel Diaz in offer for Machado

A RENTAL!!!

[lou]

http://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/ml...mpression=true



That's different than the "trade me now" of the offseason (though that never came from him).

Saying the right things at least.

Dumptruck of money and he can be one of the three major free agents they can afford in 20/21.

[Nick]

Came from his agent and Miami did try to trade him but didnt get the deal they wanted. When they couldn't find a deal his "trade request" became public and still hasn't taken it back

Taken it back? lol

[tjfla]

Taken it back? lol

Ya like Starlin Castro did when he rescinded his trade request after making 1

[fish16]

If JT sounds open to the possibility of re-signing after the season then you 100% keep him thru the deadline. No sense in forcing him to these particular teams when just about every team could use him come the offseason thus giving us a bigger potential market to bid against each other.

[lou]

So Realmuto is going to get superstar money for a few years, so the buyout is like...

Buster got this coming off his third year (i.e., Realmuto in March 2018).

$167m / 9 Years (2013 - 2021) + 1 Option Years (Edit)
2013: $8M, 2014: $12.5M, 2015: $16.5M, 2016: $20M, 2017: $21.4M, 2018: $21.4M, 2019: $21.4M, 2020: $21.4M, 2021: $21.4M
2022 Team Option: $22M ($3M buyout)
Signing Bonus: $7M
No Trade: Full

It was a 7.6 WAR season, so as much as we love Realmuto, this is above what he should get even with what he is doing now as Buster is crazy. Buster also 2 years younger when this all happened, because that's just how good Buster is.

So Realmuto's arbitration is probably going to skyrocket, but he's still a catcher so it's like maybe $7-8 million in 2019 and $10+ in 2020. Free agency years for an in your prime catcher, let's call it an even $20 for 3-4 years at this point. These seasons will cover age 28 and on seasons for him.

Looking at a team discount for guaranteeing all of this 2 years before free agency, I think an expectation on a 5 year deal is $75 million, give or take a few, and the 6 year deal gets to the $100 million threshold magic number. Assuming he would sign, the years all depend on when JT wants to be a free agent again - at age 33 (5 year deal) or is he OK this is being his 1 large contract and becomes a free agent in his twilight. I think he could get another 3+ year deal at 33 so I think the 5 year deal is the sweet spot for everyone. He should bank on staying healthy to try and get another longer deal like Molina.

Anyways, give/take $75 million for 5 years of Realmuto. Lop in another $5k signing bonus up front to make amends for trading the entire team, and that's a great deal for anyone all around (this beats Salvador Perez which is the comp after Buster, so it's in the range). If the money is fine but not years, go to 6/$100. The last year may be painful because catchers wear down, but you're going to make a killing on this deal so who cares. This is all about getting JT in 2021-2022 when the team is theoretically primed and ready to go.

Just saying, this is an easy deal money wise to figure out. He just needs to want to be here.

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Oh there is that whole no trade clause also. Maybe new bosses have different ideas on that. I'm honestly fine including those as this isn't a Stanton situation of $200+ million left on the deal.

[fish16]

Ive been saying for a while that it makes the most sense to overpay him but to do so in the first few years of the contract to try to convince him to re-sign as well as fit better with future contract expectations for the group of prospects/cost controlled players we currently have.

Something like 6 for 110 going by year with 20, 20, 18, 18, 18, 16. Or maybe higher on the front end and lower on the back end to protect against potential future injury and to help give more future payroll flexibility when these young guys get older and demand more money than the minimum. That might be too much, but im just talking about the general idea in terms of contract structure cause i havent really looked at the comps for him too closely. Posey seems to be the one to look at though.

[geemoney]

One of the interesting things to watch if Realmuto makes it through the season a Marlin, and if he is willing to negotiate an extension, is that this will be the new ownership group's first long-term contract negotiation. Just keeping an eye on their process and how they do business will be something to observe throughout the ordeal.

[Nick]

Fuck Marlins Man.

[fish16]

Fuck Marlins Man.

100% agreed in general. But did he do anything today?

[Nick]

In the front row, wearing his marlins visor like a dum dum.