2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

I think he is an easy 40 man cut or trade him to a team that wants him. He's a AAAA guy. Stowers has a better hit profile if either work out (but yes he seems underwhelming. Everyone strikes out too much here). Stowers does have an option so he can get 500 PA in AAA very easily next year and be a call up if say, Dane works out.

At some point you have to trust what you're seeing on the field. We saw both Stowers and Conine for a big chunk of the 2nd half, and Conine was clearly the more productive player.

[Nick]

I refuse to believe they don't get a SS and a right handed CF. They gave Edwards his shot at SS, he failed. It's time to move him to 2B.

This is also why I think Edwards/Serna is a trade chip as there is a 2B overload (as might be Norby's and Sanoja's best position too), as that would in addition to getting something else (i.e. part of that package for a SS or CF), open a 40 man spot to keep say Hill or get another OF (So Stowers can more easily stay in AAA). That's kind of important. Given Edwards has hit a bit (despite that .398 BABIP....), I imagine this is Serna being moved unless they are supremely confident Serna and Otto can handle SS for years.

Seems like you're down on Edwards and I don't understand why. If you're watching the games, Edwards has incredible bat to ball skills, Arraez levels, I'll go ahead and say it. Edwards 31/35 in SBs in 70 games. Over 162 games that comes out to 72 SBs. Will he continue to have a .398 BABIP? No, but I don't think .350-.360 is all that hard to believe, plus he only just turned 25, he's going to get better. He didn't fail at SS, the Marlins played him at a spot where almost everyone knew he didn't have the necessary skills to be able to fill that position, but he was put there because they threw up a prayer in a season that was lost, and they had failed to develop any other viable SS candidates. They should deal your boy Otto if anybody. Nice Bendix pickup, but clearly they don't see him as an everyday SS, or else they wouldn't have gone through with Edwards at SS. We don't need a light hitting great defensive 2nd Baseman. We need hitters and we need them desperately Edwards is a great hitter and will be for a long time in this league, you keep those around.

[lou]

At some point you have to trust what you're seeing on the field. We saw both Stowers and Conine for a big chunk of the 2nd half, and Conine was clearly the more productive player.

You bet on Stowers' contact profile being better IMO. You see the red on Stowers which is not there for Conine. Conine is ultimately, a very small sample size in September compared to being a relative non-prospect for years because of the whiffs.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb


They are overall, basically the same player and neither will make it striking out this much so this discussion may not matter. It probably boils down to one question - who do you think strikes out less? They should keep that one and the other probably is a 40 man cut

[Nick]

You bet on Stowers' contact profile being better IMO. You see the red on Stowers which is not there for Conine. Conine is ultimately, a very small sample size in September compared to being a relative non-prospect for years because of the whiffs.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb


They are overall, basically the same player and neither will make it striking out this much so this discussion may not matter. It probably boils down to one question - who do you think strikes out less? They should keep that one and the other probably is a 40 man cut

Conine is 6 months older than Stowers. They were both 2nd round picks.

[lou]

Seems like you're down on Edwards and I don't understand why. If you're watching the games, Edwards has incredible bat to ball skills, Arraez levels, I'll go ahead and say it. Edwards 31/35 in SBs in 70 games. Over 162 games that comes out to 72 SBs. Will he continue to have a .398 BABIP? No, but I don't think .350-.360 is all that hard to believe, plus he only just turned 25, he's going to get better. He didn't fail at SS, the Marlins played him at a spot where almost everyone knew he didn't have the necessary skills to be able to fill that position, but he was put there because they threw up a prayer in a season that was lost, and they had failed to develop any other viable SS candidates. They should deal your boy Otto if anybody. Nice Bendix pickup, but clearly they don't see him as an everyday SS, or else they wouldn't have gone through with Edwards at SS. We don't need a light hitting great defensive 2nd Baseman. We need hitters and we need them desperately Edwards is a great hitter and will be for a long time in this league, you keep those around.

I agree with the bold and have been saying that for awhile? He should be a high BABIP player with the lack of whiffs + speed?????? I think we can all buy .280/.350/.375 being a base line, but that comes with very good base running and likely good defense at 2B which is a very good player. And there are good year spikes to that where he might hit .295-.310, and the downside may not be that vast with the speed to bloop his way on base. He's good, but he's not a .398 BABIP player, nor a SS. He failed at SS. He's one of the worst defensive players in the league at SS. Make no mistake about it.

I also have been saying this for weeks - they should trade one of Edwards, Serna, Otto, and Norby to alleviate a 2B logjam, but considering Norby might offer some hope at 3B (and can then become the LF probably as they have many left handed OF now and coming), and Otto will likely not attract enough significance in trade until he does it again as this year certainly came out of nowhere, the smartest idea to me is moving Edwards or Serna in a package for a SS or CF (that is of course, unless Serna + Otto can handle SS for years). If Otto can attract the value, sure send him out as they need hitters and they can do a lot of different things with their depth to trade for those hitters. Ultimately, any can go. Even past these guys, they have more 2B in the farm (Johnson, Pauley, Sanoja, maybe even Cappe reclaims some form or G. Miller looks OK in a year, etc.). There is just nothing at SS until they do actually sign Salas.

Frankly, I think they can trade all of this for a SS and CF and not bat an eye. That's 1 guy per line that is moveable:

Luzardo/Garrett/Weathers/Snelling
Noble/Max
Burger/DDLS/Martorella
Edwards/Serna/Norby/Otto
Mazur/Fulton/Benitez/Santana/May
Cronin/Tinoco/Mazur/Maldonado
Sanchez/Morlando/Head
Valor/Cova/Cruz

Turn 8 into 2. We won't bat an eye if that's a longterm SS and CF on paper losing 1 guy per tier above, and there is a SP + bat double centerpiece for each as something like Luzardo/Burger/Cronin (Boston needs lefty SP and righty bats, has many OF and IF options. K. Campbell seems perfect for CF, as well as Meidroth as a throw in for 3B/bench) and Noble/Serna/Head/Valor (Zach Neto) would be really epic additions for someone. If that gets the players the Marlins need, so be it. The Marlins have real depth they can move.

Pick and choose who you want to move and maybe your list would be different, I am just big picturing this on depth not picking who I think is smartest to move. But for me, it is probably..... Luzardo, Noble, Burger, Serna, Benitez, Cronin, Valor, and the lefty OF is harder so it would depend on who is coming back but ultimately can be anyone. I'd trade all of those 8 in a heart beat to get a long term SS and CF to match with Mack/Ramirez, DDLS/Martorella, Edwards/Otto, Norby, and Sanoja... which all of a sudden becomes really cohesive when "top 3 pick" in 2025 is added to this group... and you still have Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Max, and Garrett, Weathers, Snelling, White, and Fulton, with a full bullpen of reasonable options.

And this is the "don't spend money" approach where they will at least have bucks for 1 year guys.


Basically, Edwards is fine but could be expendable. We'll see what they do, but I don't see a McCann, Canha, and bader "barf" level offseason. That's a 2024 repeat with Anderson, Gordon, and Brujan. I think they will do trades. Maybe as not "big" as I mention above, but tangible moves in some capacity.

[lou]

Conine is 6 months older than Stowers. They were both 2nd round picks.

I literally don't care which one they keep, I think they have room for 1 on the 40 man so whoever they think whiffs less is the keep. I think that is probably Stowers, but wouldn't argue it's a toss up as neither showed a lot.

If they want to keep both, they have to kick someone like Bride (I would be OK with that TBH as there is more upside with Stowers or Conine among all players who likely don't make it) or Dane (I wouldn't do that, I'd keep Dane) off the 40 man.

[Namaste]

To add to Xavier’s struggles at SS……..it’s not like he was thrown into a position he’s never played either.

He’s been a SS his entire life. He’s going to be a really good 2B.

[lou]

To add to Xavier’s struggles at SS……..it’s not like he was thrown into a position he’s never played either.

He’s been a SS his entire life. He’s going to be a really good 2B.

I'd tend to agree.

Frankly, if he has a .350+ OBP and is a terror on the bases with average defense, he's probably a 2.5+ WAR player at 2B..... and that's not including is he a good defender and/or going to speed his way to a .400+ slugging rate (expected this year - .328 slugging for perspective so close to a 100 point slugging over achievement to what he is actually doing. But that's what comes with the .398 BABIP. For perspective as we use Arraez as the contact comparable, Arraez expected slugging for his career is .420 and actual slugging..... .418 so these things do catch up. Kwan has an expected slugging of .361 for career, and actual .396.... so I think the hope is Edwards is closer to a Kwan slugging performer and is a .280/.350/.375ish base line "over achiever" player with BABIP peaks and valleys). Take that all day. A core building block with that kind of OBP from an up the middle position.

Further, I'm not sure who said it but one of you said maybe they did tell Edwards he just gets SS this year to wow the organization before the 2B move, and the reason Otto hasn't been given "that shot" yet is because they promised Edwards in this 100 loss season, wow us at SS kid. And thus, they honored the promise and played him hard at SS not worrying about the bad defensive results. And now they have the analytics data to tell him, Edwards. We like you but you can't play SS (or CF - arm strength!) for this team. Prep up 2B all winter. This is my hope. And then Otto becomes the "superior range low arm" type SS defender Berti was and is fine as a platoon SS for years who can start against most right handers and gets 400-450 PA just like Berti did. Nothing special, but call it a 1.5 WAR platoon player (he was 2.5 this year*). You can sell me a world where SS concerns are overblown if Otto can do THAT *and* on top (and they'd need this too), Serna is "fine enough" to play 60-70 starts at SS (mostly against lefties) and isn't atrocious defensively. Where now, SS can actually be ignored for the time being in this unspectacular but totally fine platoon and the heaviest investment comes for a right handed CF and they blow it out for that player immediately. Then see how Norby does at 3B in 2025 and who they get in the 2025 draft as that does seem impactful for making a long term decision, and can do the 2nd big bat move July 2025. So if anyone sees a new and genuine scouting report on Serna defensively at SS as he did play there a bit (986 innings in minors!), would love to see it as FG/Pipeline, and everyone else are all down on the defense but maybe he is improving. I think Otto not at SS is a missed opportunity to see what he would do, but optimistically they already know and this was just accommodating Edwards as a player which theoretically improves moral for him.

[Nick]

I'd tend to agree.

Frankly, if he has a .350+ OBP and is a terror on the bases with average defense, he's probably a 2.5+ WAR player at 2B..... and that's not including is he a good defender and/or going to speed his way to a .400+ slugging rate (expected this year - .328 slugging for perspective so close to a 100 point slugging over achievement to what he is actually doing. But that's what comes with the .398 BABIP. For perspective as we use Arraez as the contact comparable, Arraez expected slugging for his career is .420 and actual slugging..... .418 so these things do catch up. Kwan has an expected slugging of .361 for career, and actual .396.... so I think the hope is Edwards is closer to a Kwan slugging performer and is a .280/.350/.375ish base line "over achiever" player with BABIP peaks and valleys). Take that all day. A core building block with that kind of OBP from an up the middle position.

Further, I'm not sure who said it but one of you said maybe they did tell Edwards he just gets SS this year to wow the organization before the 2B move, and the reason Otto hasn't been given "that shot" yet is because they promised Edwards in this 100 loss season, wow us at SS kid. And thus, they honored the promise and played him hard at SS not worrying about the bad defensive results. And now they have the analytics data to tell him, Edwards. We like you but you can't play SS (or CF - arm strength!) for this team. Prep up 2B all winter. This is my hope. And then Otto becomes the "superior range low arm" type SS defender Berti was and is fine as a platoon SS for years who can start against most right handers and gets 400-450 PA just like Berti did. Nothing special, but call it a 1.5 WAR platoon player (he was 2.5 this year*). You can sell me a world where SS concerns are overblown if Otto can do THAT *and* on top (and they'd need this too), Serna is "fine enough" to play 60-70 starts at SS (mostly against lefties) and isn't atrocious defensively. Where now, SS can actually be ignored for the time being in this unspectacular but totally fine platoon and the heaviest investment comes for a right handed CF and they blow it out for that player immediately. Then see how Norby does at 3B in 2025 and who they get in the 2025 draft as that does seem impactful for making a long term decision, and can do the 2nd big bat move July 2025. So if anyone sees a new and genuine scouting report on Serna defensively at SS as he did play there a bit (986 innings in minors!), would love to see it as FG/Pipeline, and everyone else are all down on the defense but maybe he is improving. I think Otto not at SS is a missed opportunity to see what he would do, but optimistically they already know and this was just accommodating Edwards as a player which theoretically improves moral for him.

Do you really think Edwards has this kind of pull inside the organization?

I know new GM and all that, but I'll remind you, this was a man who was killing it in AAA in 2023 and couldn't get called up to play over the likes of Joey Wendle.

[lou]

Do you really think Edwards has this kind of pull inside the organization?

I know new GM and all that, but I'll remind you, this was a man who was killing it in AAA in 2023 and couldn't get called up to play over the likes of Joey Wendle.

No idea - also not my idea someone else mentioned it but I do think it is plausible. Maybe he really wants to stick at SS, and the best thing for Edwards developmentally is seeing how bad it turned out so it is a learning experience for him. For a super analytics based GM, playing him at SS all of September literally makes no sense over Otto who was showcasing exceptional range numbers (and a better arm). So something else is going on here, in that they know what they have with Otto and this is just desperation to see if Edwards clicked at the big league level, or something else like maybe accommodating Edwards' wanting to be a SS because say.... Kim fucked him in 2023 not calling him up. Who knows.


Big picture, I'd love to see this develop in a perfect world:

C - Mack(L), Ramirez(R)
1B - DDLS(R), Martorella(L)/Berry(S)
2B - Edwards(S)
SS - Otto(R), Serna(R)
3B - ______
LF - Norby(R), Berry(S)/Stowers(L)/Marsee(L)
CF - ______, Sanoja(R)/Dane(R)
RF - Sanchez(L) ---------> LaViolette/Cannarella(L) (2025 Top 3 pick)

* Serna plays 50+ games at 2B/3B/LF to spell guys so please don't assume I mean Otto much over 400 PA here, it's a platoon and he just hits righties a little
** I don't think Norby is a 3B
*** I'm just assuming they take the college guy in the draft
****I'm assuming all those 1B work out so this isn't a Burger insult


If SS is good enough there (huge question) which is what this discussion is about, it still primes getting a right handed CF immediately, and any kind of 3B. Say..... Luzardo, Burger, and Cronin to the Red Sox for K. Campbell/Meidroth starts making a lot of sense for everyone, especially if Serna, Norby, and Sanoja all can pitch in at 3B to help. Still might need another bat in the future as luxury upgrades for contending, but you're set up for success now a real plan. And per the Red Sox, the get 3 things they immediately need with years of control, and still can trade a left handed bat for another pitcher and then sign another right handed bat and lefty reliever as they of course, have money.

[Namaste]

Edwin Diaz meltdown

[fish16]

seems pretty obvious to me the future is Edwards at 2b full time, norby should be in LF full time, otto is not a starter but a solid utility guy, and they need full time starters at both left infield positions, though maybe bride can be a stop gap for a year or 2 if he keeps up the way he performed this year. The full time SS of the future is not in the organization. Luzardo would be the obvious one to deal but they would be selling at his lowest value.

They shouldnt be signing any major free agents. Maybe a stop gap 1 year C, but other than that, it should just be 1 year relievers and possibly a backend innings eating starter, but they have already proven time and time again that they have no intention of doing that. They will risk injuries again and just see what happens because sherman is incompetent and has no business owning a professional sports team.

I'd sign 2-3 1 year relievers and see what happens. they cannot continue to do nothing with the bullpen every offseason and then spend the entire first month figuring out what works among 15 arms. They need to have a better plan.

[Namaste]

Brazoban doing everything he can to eliminate Arizona

[rmc523]

i wonder if the majority of that downturn is just a decrease in season tickets or individual game sales. would love to see the breakdown of season tickets over the years. it feels like the season tickets could account for a lot of the decrease coming off of a playoff season and doing nothing. feels like we have a baked in number of individual tickets sold because of how many other teams fans come to the ballpark over the course of the year between teams like the dodgers, yankees, mets, phillies, red sox, cubs, cardinals, etc.

Yeah I wish we were able to have more a breakdown. Not sure if things like that are publicly reported anywhere….doubt it, especially with any figures (management could tout an increase in season tickets without figures).

[rmc523]

Harrison Bader, Mark Canha, James McCann Free Agent signings.

1 year deals, deal them at the deadline.

Sounds like a typical blah/why bother Marlins offseason….

im sure we’ll sign them and they’ll all fall on their faces in typical Marlins fashion too.