2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

not breaking any news here in saying the white sox are bad but it is hard to believe that a team as bad as us this year can be 21 games in front of anyone.

[lou]

guys can improve. he's pitched 63 major league innings with a TJ surgery thrown in the middle and a super dumb handling of him this year thrown in the mix. he probably doesnt because of the "depth" we have at SP, but it's worthless to talk about because we had depth this year and not a single guy out of that depth stayed healthy for even half the year. He's going to end the year at 130 or so innings between the big leagues and minors. There is no reason why he wouldnt be capable of throwing 150-170 if the injuries shake out the way they would need to in order for him to be in the rotation all year. Realistically he will be a hybrid multi inning reliever and starter next year, or he starts the year in the rotation and moves to the bullpen when eury comes back in order to keep him effective down the stretch. It's way too early to say that he never throws 170 innings when they clearly envision him as a starter.

It's important to note I said he will never throw 170 innings in current form, and he'd have to get the slider usage down and I didn't say guys can't improve. Pointing out that you are debating something not being said. Yea Max needs some work. We'll see what happens but I'm with you he's off injury and will be fine however he lands. Likely not his pick pedigree as an epic # 1 ace, but he's a piece somewhere on this team for awhile even if its in the pen. He's probably an awesome reliever immediately but I'd start him until at least Eury is back next summer and reassess as who knows who gets traded, hurts, explodes in a good way, etc.


But if this is worthless, rev my engines and let's start talking about Maldonado, Simpson, McMillian, Veneziano (new trade acquisition and a lefty!), maybe Tinoco..... and I guess Oller and De Geus being the last 7 arms on the 40 man.

Because that's what it probably is right now, what is important the last month of the season, and is actually a pretty interesting group. Optimistically 2 more guys emerge from Oller, De Geus, Baumann, Curry, Bellozzo, Soriano, and Bachar (and Sixto?) so this becomes really obvious of who the keeps are and the Marlins have all 20 arms set prior to the winter, with only looking for really high end waiver claim or opportunistic improvements. McMillian and Tinoco look real real interesting right now which is kind of a big deal of establishing the arm depth. They might be able to trade say Bender (in arb, save $500k!) and keep another guy on top of that as this might be real depth, and roll out Faucher, Cronin, McMillian, Tinoco, Nardi, Veneziano, and Oller as the opening day bullpen, and have Simpson, Maldonado, and say De Geus and Curry as the option arms (with Mazur also a possibility as he's on the 40).

This is kind of interesting/sneaky good and very much resembles the Rays solid pens. I note again, the Marlins have had a top 2 bullpen in baseball this year along with Cleveland, but yes Puk, Scott, Brazoban, and even Hoeing was a good third or more of that production so they have to fill those spots + practically Faucher and Cronin are likely over achieving to some extent. So they have a bit of work to do as a repeat is unlikely absent 2 big breakouts, but maybe McMillian and Tinoco can replace a lot of that as they objectively look pretty good/interesting enough.

Here's to churning and finding two more RHP relievers from these reliever slog moves, McMillian and Tinoco not going off the deep end, and Veneziano showing at least solid 3rd lefty reliever upside. September is fun?

[lou]

not breaking any news here in saying the white sox are bad but it is hard to believe that a team as bad as us this year can be 21 games in front of anyone.

The funniest part is they can't get the # 1 pick with the new draft rules, which others here have mentioned but fun to say out loud.

We got a huge shot at Ethan Holliday (probably 3B), Jace LaViolette (CF), and Cam Cannarella (CF) as the presumed top 3 picks and all stud bats prospect wise. Everyone lines up postionally and is a genuine missing piece. I'll be surprised if they fall out of this top 3 as they should get at least that.

It then gets real exciting when two more bats are obtained via trade........ (or they do spend the money on some kind of SS. Maybe a right handed one from the Dominican who has a 4.4 WAR this year already, although that may really inflate the value, but his defense is starting to crater (51st percentile) so a 3B move might be coming in 2-3 years similar to Machado, and that may turn some teams off which is good for the Marlins as a SS/3B works for the Marlins in any scenario and Willy being a stud 3B defender + hitting jacks in a few years is still a real viable longterm starter. That would set up LaViolette/Cannarella as fast rising college players as the targets and hopefully one goes full Langford and is up quick, etc. Let's dream the missing three bats are Adames, Laviolette/Cannarella, and a SP move for a young SS/3B depending on visions of Adames' defensive future which is probably just trading Luzardo and parts for Brooks Lee sort of thing. Let me dream).

[fish16]

good outing for noble meyer last night. hasnt been dominant this year like white but really really good year for a 19 year old across A and A+ ball. looks like they crushed the top of last year's draft

[lou]

That Matt Chapman extension (6/$151m) for his age 32-37 seasons is something. The Giants have missed on many free agents the last few years, but that seems like a gross desperation overpay and should have been a 4 year deal, or a cheaper 5 year deal. They moved Luciano to 2B and look committed to Fitzgerald at SS, so this is good news as it extremely likely takes them out of an Adames/Kim sweepstakes (they would be next most obvious IMO after LAD, DET, and MIA needing a bonafide SS), but is more bad news as Adames and Kim will each be 29 and it is extremely hard to say Chapman will out perform them for 6 years with those 35 and over seasons coming quickly. The hope a vortex of a Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, and Chapman free agency and all the big guys whiffing where the Marlins could sneak in just took a little hit here.

Swanson was 29 when he signed his deal (7/$177m) and that seems like this is where it is heading for Adames and Kim, but maybe Kim is closer to 6/$140m and Adames 6/$152m sort of thing. Swanson is still a bit better even though Adames is having the best year of his career so it's probably just 1 less year. I was hoping these numbers would maybe trend in a depressed market for FA to the $120-130m and closer to the Castellanos ($100m) spectrum of deals versus Swanson, but the Giants may have just set the market by paying Chapman so much money when he is 36 and 37. Frankly, Adames is going to shoot for 8/$200m out of the gates or maybe 9/$220m sort of the thing. He won't get that anywhere of course, but $150m is likely the magic number based on the new comp, or a Nimmo-esque 8/$162m, and that's a lot to commit. It's likely a Chapman to Swanson contract range absent a market collapse. This may be up to the Dodgers as Detroit spending this money is iffy with what happened to them with Baez, and of course Bruce doesn't spend money, so maybe these guys are just screwed and it's cheaper because the rest of baseball likes them, but isn't willing to spend so much based on their own internal options (which most teams do have SS which I've shown). We can hope the market squeezes them.


If I were the Marlins and Bruce greenlights the $90-100m payrolls next few years, I'd appeal to a higher annual value, shorter deal, and give Adames/Kim an opt out so they could retest free agency. Something like 4/$116m (or 5/$135m), but give an opt out after year 3 (and year 4) so they could try and get another "Chapman" kind of deal at age 32 (or 33) and beyond seasons. The appeal is more money per year, and betting on yourself for a chance at a second big free agent contract. Front load 2025 a little too so maybe that contract is structured $35m-$27m-$27m-$27m(-$19m). Optimistically, they would be great and could do better in free agency than 1/$27m or 2/$46m sort of thing after 27/28 (similar to Soler opting out), so this ultimately becomes something like a 3/$89m type of deal which works for a potentially contending Marlins team 2026 and 2027 (i.e. aligning with Sandy's service time, a healthy Eury, and the theoretical emergence of Cabrera, White, and others into superior SP), which is the entire point. If Adames/Kim hold up, they could shoot for another $100-150m contract similar to Chapman at the same age, and all of a sudden they are above all the comps (Swanson, Nimmo, Springer, Chapman, etc.) and are genuinely closer (or above) Correa level money for the same or similar years.

This is all unlikely of course per the Marlins, but the big picture here is, if this were to work, I feel it's "overpaying" (is this possible with Bruce and budgets so low? The answer is no) for 3 years and giving Adames/Kim an opt out to try free agency again after 2027 and hoping they opt out, which works for getting paid handsomely for these years over expectations, and maybe the player would want to bet on themselves in free agency, or potentially getting out of a bad situation if the Marlins do stay this injured and suck. Marlins don't care as it's not 6 years like Chapman, as this builds out the window for when they still control Sandy, etc. and gives 3 years to figure out SS otherwise (C. Johnson? IFA-Salas kid? etc.).

Just some musing here as while most are completely out on Bruce doing anything and yes that's probably right, payroll will still be $65m or so next year and they have spent $80-110m the last 3 seasons so there is potential to do things as other payroll is moveable (Luzardo and Bender will make close to $7m and they might have easy replacements if say Snelling and Mazur are pretty real quicjly, etc.) to help fit this all in if need be. Luzardo would bring back another SS/3B or CF quickly, No one is going to be expensive besides Sandy for literally 3 full seasons, except maybe Luzardo if they do keep him and that'll just be for 2026 if he goes off in 2025. So there are some paths this could work if Bruce says the magic $100m number is right.

I'm expecting 1-2 SP trades for young bats, signing some cheap/skeptical SP to make up the innings, and praying to god as the 2025 strategy, but just thinking here how some kind of Adames/Kim move could work if lightning strikes. Best I can think of is the higher money per year, 3 year opt out to align with Sandy's contract to really go for it in 26/27, and taking a bet the guy opts out and shoots for a second bigger deal.

[lou]

good outing for noble meyer last night. hasnt been dominant this year like white but really really good year for a 19 year old across A and A+ ball. looks like they crushed the top of last year's draft

Yes he looks good for his age, but 3 BB, 2 HBP, and 2 WP in 4.1 IP? What's going on there? 1 hit and 7ks is great, but some weird stuff going on in that game.

He seems like a slow burn and 2027 guy that needs to iron out some control. Nothing wrong with that of course.

[lou]

McMillion also looks completely awesome and the Royals might have really fucked up. I post this as he might be the most interesting guy on the team right now. A mini dive:


Statcast is incredible - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

This is disgusting - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video/dy...0Inning%20=%20[10]%20Order%20By%20Timestamp%20ASC&p=0&pt=Pitch%20by% 20Pitch%20-%2010th%20Inning

This is even more disgusting - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video/da...0Inning%20=%20[10]%20Order%20By%20Timestamp%20ASC&p=0&pt=Pitch%20by% 20Pitch%20-%2010th%20Inning

Fangraphs considered him for their top 100 list prior to 2024 this offseason because his FB looks like an 80 sometimes - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/names-to...ant-prospects/

They dropped his ranking because he has low control and had lower velocity in spring training, but it recovered. He just very volatile with the control - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kansas-c...rospects-2024/

It's a SSS but is showing enough control. 4.22 BB/9. For perspective, Scott is 4.52 BB/9 this season and doing great. Scott was sub 3 BB/9 in 2023 when he was out of this world good. I don't think we can hope for that expectation, but a 4.5 BB/9 McMillion is probably a very good reliever - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...ats?position=P



If they get the walks voodoo out of McMillion like they did with Scott, which they have so far (enough of them anyways), they frankly have a guy who is profiling as a right handed Scott or Puk and got for free on waivers. He has 2 more options too. I'm not sure if they can fully ever fix guys like this, but he's got the juice and they have a real chance of getting a very viable high leverage RP out of him for maybe a few years. Really hoping these last 6-8 appearances he has or whatever look sharp to build off of this into next year and don't become a walkapalooza. This one is super duper fun and the kind of good news they need for the right handed bullpen arms


Also a footnote here, Tinoco is also completely dealing - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb. He is OOO, but he genuinely is playing himself into the bullpen next year. Can easily see McMillian, Faucher, Bender, Cronin, and Tinoco being the right handers, with Nardi the only lefty and a revolving door of option guys for the last spot.

[fish16]

Yes he looks good for his age, but 3 BB, 2 HBP, and 2 WP in 4.1 IP? What's going on there? 1 hit and 7ks is great, but some weird stuff going on in that game.

He seems like a slow burn and 2027 guy that needs to iron out some control. Nothing wrong with that of course.

he's had control issues all year but has gotten by with great stuff. thats the next step in his development. White had that too to start the year in jupiter but improved it in beloit. hopefully meyer does the same to start next year followed by a pretty quick jump to AA. I'd say late 2026 early 2027 depending on what we do with the pitching we already have and of course injuries.

[Todd]

Lou. You can stop bringing up Adames. The Marlins are not going to be in on him in any way shape or form. It doesn't matter what other teams do. It doesn't matter what deal he is looking for.

He won't even be discussed in the office.

[fish16]

Lou. You can stop bringing up Adames. The Marlins are not going to be in on him in any way shape or form. It doesn't matter what other teams do. It doesn't matter what deal he is looking for.

He won't even be discussed in the office.

This. I don’t know why he does this every year. This ownership could not make it any more clear they are not going to spend big, especially on a free agent

[lou]

Lou. You can stop bringing up Adames. The Marlins are not going to be in on him in any way shape or form. It doesn't matter what other teams do. It doesn't matter what deal he is looking for.

He won't even be discussed in the office.

Two things - I don't agree with you and you are welcome to not respond

*And I say that in the yes this is a lower single digit percentage chance the stars align and there is a total market collapse like what literally just happened with Chapman, Snell, Montgomery, and Bellinger, but their payroll is $65m and actually closer to $50m for the on field, with nothing on the books besides Sandy, so they do have the ability to make moves and it will eventually happen even if it's still 2-3 years out

[lou]

Also this is fun. Since June 22nd, Fortes is hitting 127 PA, .322/.341/.426, 3.1% BB, 14.2% K (.364 BABIP). He's up to a .8 WAR on the season in 275 PA as he's very good defensively despite an overall sub .600 OPS. That's 33rd overall for catchers with over 100 PA.

He's having a fair year and not under or over achieving on the season. I hope this is more than a BABIP bender and he is trending to a mid .600 OPS bat like he was in 21/22 as he's very viable longterm if he can get there. Some hope here. He has looked much better recently (this is a good oppo on an pitch outside and what he should be doing - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video/ni...0Inning%20=%20[5]%20Order%20By%20Timestamp%20ASC&p=1&pt=Pitch%20by% 20Pitch%20-%205th%20Inning). I didn't realize the slash was that high, but this could be an interesting few weeks for him if he maintains this and the BABIP drops a little. Big picture, I think it goes without saying but he's a viable backup catcher and is over some of the early season hitting yips.

[lou]

Here's also 30 seconds of White strikeouts - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video/ma...46-default-vtp

Hard to tell, but that 4th one I think is the sweeper FG talked about (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-n...grade-sweeper/) and that looks really nasty movement wise. All these hitters look overmatched on the fastballs, but of course, these are all the K pitches so they will look stupid.

[Todd]

Two things - I don't agree with you and you are welcome to not respond

*And I say that in the yes this is a lower single digit percentage chance the stars align and there is a total market collapse like what literally just happened with Chapman, Snell, Montgomery, and Bellinger, but their payroll is $65m and actually closer to $50m for the on field, with nothing on the books besides Sandy, so they do have the ability to make moves and it will eventually happen even if it's still 2-3 years out

You can disagree all you want. You are wrong.

You are basically a flat Earther. You been making the same multi paragraph posts with depth charts and potential money for multiple years across two ownership groups and have never been right.

Evidence slaps you in the face but you believe.

It's a bit sad.

[fish16]

Two things - I don't agree with you and you are welcome to not respond

*And I say that in the yes this is a lower single digit percentage chance the stars align and there is a total market collapse like what literally just happened with Chapman, Snell, Montgomery, and Bellinger, but their payroll is $65m and actually closer to $50m for the on field, with nothing on the books besides Sandy, so they do have the ability to make moves and it will eventually happen even if it's still 2-3 years out

you act like those players signed for pennies on the dollar on a 1 year deal.

Chapman signed for 3 years 54 million (18 per year) with opt outs after each year.
Snell signed for 2 years 62 million.
Montgomery signed for 1 year 25 million with an easy vesting option for next year at 20 million.
Bellinger signed for 3 years 80 million.

they have no intention of signing anyone for those amounts. No matter how many times you post the depth chart with 8 paragraphs of analysis.

Im also not even criticizing them for not signing those guys. i dont think its prudent to sign deals like that given our salary restrictions. if we are going to start spending some money, it should be on guys they already have, and do it early. Internal guys signed early is how almost the entire braves decade of success was built. Signing 30+ year old free agents for 20+ million for their declining years is a terrible way for this franchise to operate. Then, and only then, you can make smarter signings like the rays did to fill holes in the short term.