2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

He’s a limited player

Agree 100%. Automatic vs RHP.

[fish16]

jj bleday went 5-5 yesterday with 2 2b's, a hr, and a great diving catch in CF. then he got up and threw a guy out at 3b

[fish16]

Agree 100%. Automatic vs RHP.

you guys like to act like he's joc pederson against righties. he has a .789 OPS against righties this year. he's above average against righties, he isnt this righty masher. he is what he is. a strict platoon guy who can hit righties at an above average but not anywhere close to elite level. it's fine, but he's not this amazing long term piece.

[lou]

3 for 4 with 2 HR’s today off RHP

Hill's expected slash better than actual - .263/.289/.446. Not that impressive OBP wise, but really spikes up dramatically on lefties. His fielding and base running are not projecting to be very good (but are a neutralish fine), but he is fast AF and has arm strength so some hope. For comparison Bride's expected performance is .230/.325/.324. If you had to pick one or the other, it's Hill because of the lefty split and ability to handle CF better than Bride handling 3B (probably).

He's got a shot for the 40 man along with Bride for sure:

C Fortes, _____, Ramirez, Banfield (4) <--- Maybe Pereda
1B/DH Burger, DDLS (2)
2B Edwards, Otto, Serna (3)
SS _____ (1)
3B _____, Pauley, ____ (3) ——> Maybe Bride(OOO), Hensley(1 option)
LF Norby, Stowers (2)
CF _____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr. (3) ——> Maybe Hill(OOO)
RF Sanchez, Dane (2)
=20


I'm sure they'd love Bride, Hill, and Hensley to all work out for those lines, and then the offseason can be getting a 1 year bridge catcher to Ramirez and Banfield, and finding the elusive SS. I doubt it, but maybe one of Bride, Hill, and Hensley do stick, and Hill is top of that list IMO right now.

To note, I really think a bridge catcher is going to be high on their to do list, because they'll just slow roll the other 3 of them (Mack included there, but doesn't have to go on 40 man until after 25). I don't think this is a bad idea either to not throw Ramirez into the fire and just work on the defense for a few months. He's young. Plenty of time.

[fish16]

Hill's expected slash better than actual - .263/.289/.446. Not that impressive OBP wise, but really spikes up dramatically on lefties. His fielding and base running are not projecting to be very good (but are a neutralish fine), but he is fast AF and has arm strength so some hope. For comparison Bride's expected performance is .230/.325/.324. If you had to pick one or the other, it's Hill because of the lefty split and ability to handle CF better than Bride handling 3B (probably).

He's got a shot for the 40 man along with Bride for sure:

C Fortes, _____, Ramirez, Banfield (4) <--- Maybe Pereda
1B/DH Burger, DDLS (2)
2B Edwards, Otto, Serna (3)
SS _____ (1)
3B _____, Pauley, ____ (3) ——> Maybe Bride(OOO), Hensley(1 option)
LF Norby, Stowers (2)
CF _____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr. (3) ——> Maybe Hill(OOO)
RF Sanchez, Dane (2)
=20


I'm sure they'd love Bride, Hill, and Hensley to all work out for those lines, and then the offseason can be getting a 1 year bridge catcher to Ramirez and Banfield, and finding the elusive SS. I doubt it, but maybe one of Bride, Hill, and Hensley do stick, and Hill is top of that list IMO right now.

To note, I really think a bridge catcher is going to be high on their to do list, because they'll just slow roll the other 3 of them (Mack included there, but doesn't have to go on 40 man until after 25). I don't think this is a bad idea either to not throw Ramirez into the fire and just work on the defense for a few months. He's young. Plenty of time.

he wont be here next year. He's been on 5 teams in the last 2 years. he has a career .633 OPS in 415 ab's. He hit 2 hr's in colorado against an equally awful rockies team. i wouldnt get carried away.

[lou]

Nowhere in their writeup does it say Mazur is a likely reliever. It said he was rushed and he still had things to work on and that is the pitcher that could end up as a reliever.

When someone writes up they only have 2 pitches, that's saying that's reliever risk directly. I don't know what your point is here - we agree it says he could be a reliever? I don't know what's confrontational about saying Mazur is a very high floor 7th/8th inning guy prospect, and has a shot at being a 4th starter if he really maintains pristine command or the Marlins do figure out a third pitch. I'm expecting him to be the team's 2nd-4th most important reliever for years, but if he is more than that - GREAT. Calling someone a reliever is not an insult to me. Good/great relievers are massively valuable.

Practically, he doesn't have a FV60 pitch on either main scouting service either which I think is even more important. That's really important to not have an out pitch. Snelling doesn't either (everything is 55s for both of them on the better pitches), but he does have a third viable pitch and is a lefty so he's a better prospect IMO and that's how he gets the low end SP comp and Mazur is more likely a reliever. I already said Mazur's control might overcome the lack of a true good third pitch, but it's really really hard to be a starter with 2 pitches unless you have an 80 pitch like Strider. Look at Max (70 slider). It's not working right now. The Marlins will have to be houdini and introduce a third pitch to get Mazur above that kind of projection. I'm not beyond saying the Padres are dumb here either and they were the problem, but they probably aren't and it's a large ask.

Also lets think about deployment. Even if some of these guys are "starters," guys are getting kicked to the pen. I think of everyone, Max and Mazur are probably the most likely pen candidates, Max because he really just might be a slider only guy and the same reasons as Mazur where's a third pitch. For instance, this could be 2027 quickly and is out of this world awesome on paper.

Main SP - Sandy, Eury, White, Cabrera, Noble/Snelling
Bulks - Snelling/Noble, Mazur, Weathers
High leverage RP - Max, Nardi
Relievers - A. May/Millbrandt, Fulton/Simpson/Whoever, Maldonado/Ekness/Whoever

Luzardo - traded for bats
Garrett - traded for bats


Sure guys will get hurt and who knows what happens, but all the bulks, Max, May, Millbrandt, and Fulton are being developed as SP and just on a pure numbers basis those guys will never ever touch Sandy, Eury, White's potential, Cabrera's potential, Noble's potential and higher floor lefty in Snelling. Some are going to get moved into the pen and it'll happen by August next year probably. You can shuffle those effectively 11 roster spots after Sandy and Eury pretty dramatically ultimately as maybe Cabrera is the "closer"? Who knows.


If you feel otherwise, I can assure you I am not disparaging Mazur as this seems to be sensitive topic. He's a solid prospect and I expect him on the team for years. This is all going to work itself out is what I am saying, but I don't see him being a top 5 arm on this club at any time the next 7 years. So he's probably a reliever. Not an insult.

[fish16]

jakob marsee rode his .188 average and sub .700 OPS into a promotion to AAA

[fish16]

jacob berry is off to a really hot start in AAA. had a triple and 2 walks last night

[fish16]

what agustin ramirez has done this year as a 22 year old, catching full time, in the upper levels of the minor is super impressive. it's reminiscent of gary sanchez but with actual plate discipline.

[fish16]

are there any reports on serna's defense at SS? He has also been impressive offensively. only 22 and he doesnt turn 23 till midseason next year.

and another great outing for thomas white. he has gone 5 IP and allowed only 1 ER in 7 straight outings.

[lou]

jj bleday went 5-5 yesterday with 2 2b's, a hr, and a great diving catch in CF. then he got up and threw a guy out at 3b

Cool. He's a major leaguer and major leaguers get hits. I'm also sure you noticed that his doubles had expected batting averages of .070 and .230, and we won't mention the single was .380 to suggest he got lucky on not just two, but three of those hits.

Bleday's at a .253/.334/.424 expected slash, bad base runner, and going to end up in LF but is overall "fine" defensively. If we had him, I think we'd trust him to be the backup CF for 30+ games (which does have real value). He is a fine, average starting baseball player along the lines of a good Lane Thomas or Austin Hays year and those guys do have a pretty fun year and then get back to earth eventually even if they have a good 2-4 year run. I am interested in seeing if the defense spikes up in LF though which I imagine it will. He's a major leaguer to his credit and frankly, I hope Berry turns into the RF (or LF) version of this within a year as that would be amazing. But let's not go overboard and thinking he's some star player and the Marlins fucked up which is what you are insinuating. Because eventually, Lane Thomas and Austin Hays happens and this is who Bleday is. Kim was 100% right to her credit even if Bleday is turning into something.

And ultimately, I would still trade Bleday for Puk straight up today (partially based on Marlins needs as a shut down lefty reliever is high on the list of needs after the 3 bats IMO and Bleday isn't a SS/3B/CF), assuming Puk would sign a 4 year extension to make the service time equal as the money would net out for sure as Bleday will make a bunch in arbitration with playing time and counting stats. The reason is, Bleday looks to be a solid starter in likely LF (Norby is projecting for that slash line soon in our heads right, and will be a worse defender but a better base runner for instance so the difference isn't going to be dramatic even if Bleday is better because of likely much better LF defense??????) and Puk is the literal best left handed reliever in baseball this season with 1.7 WAR in 44 innings. Strahm is 1.8 WAR, but more innings in the bullpen and higher xFIP. All the analytics back up Puk's performance. It's much harder to find this level of reliever than a corner OF IMO. Hence, why I would stick with the high leverage reliever versus a non-star baseball player. Maybe this is wrong in a few years when we look back, but I am a bet on upside nearly always kind of guy versus betting on a floor. (This is also why I'd like McMillian to be on this team for months next year even if he's walking tons of guys and other guys have higher floors. Bet on the upside as that's how you create a perfect storm to win)

We shall see if Peter is right as all we should really be talking about is DDLS. Let's go DDLS. (And yes DDLS is also an upside swing which is conceptually good, and I'm arguing that here, but Puk is also showing the upside and he's the safer of the two, hence why Puk is just my guy here. We can leave it at this). No one wants your grandstanding here on whatever personal vendetta you're having, especially when it's objectively based on .070 expectancy doubles and Bleday's 2024 expected .758 OPS. Which I note, DLC's expected career OPS is .759 and we fucking hate DLC more than anything in the known universe, expect maybe Bruce Sherman.

Let's go DDLS and put to bed Bleday and Puk. Bleday is fine. Puk is flashing insane upside. May DDLS translate the contact to the MLB level and hit 200+ HR for the Marlins next 6+ seasons. Hopefully he takes Puk deep in a dramatic moment to clinch a playoff spot to bring this all full circle in a few years.

[lou]

he wont be here next year. He's been on 5 teams in the last 2 years. he has a career .633 OPS in 415 ab's. He hit 2 hr's in colorado against an equally awful rockies team. i wouldnt get carried away.

Can you let me know exactly what you mean by "don't get carried away" when I suggest Hill might make it on the 40 man and open as the team's bench OF next year? What are we getting carried away about here?

Also the stat that matters is he smokes lefties (.831 career). If they can figure out other positions (mainly dedicated SS and CF), he is a natural Sanchez platoon partner and they probably have room for him. I mean yes they should spend money and get better guys that don't have a dramatic platoon weakness, but this is our reality.

[fish16]

Can you let me know exactly what you mean by "don't get carried away" when I suggest Hill might make it on the 40 man and open as the team's bench OF next year? What are we getting carried away about here?

Also the stat that matters is he smokes lefties (.831 career). If they can figure out other positions (mainly dedicated SS and CF), he is a natural Sanchez platoon partner and they probably have room for him. I mean yes they should spend money and get better guys that don't have a dramatic platoon weakness, but this is our reality.

i mean that he wont be on the team next year and that wasting time talking about the guy because he hit 2 hr's yesterday against an equally terrible rockies team in coors is a waste of space. he has been on 5 teams in 2 years for a reason. he's 28 and in his minor league career only has a ..724 OPS in over 2600 career minor league plate appearances. you're seeing what you want to see and not what he has proven to be. he has 164 plate appearances against lefties in his career.

[fish16]

Cool. He's a major leaguer and major leaguers get hits. I'm also sure you noticed that his doubles had expected batting averages of .070 and .230, and we won't mention the single was .380 to suggest he got lucky on not just two, but three of those hits.

Bleday's at a .253/.334/.424 expected slash, bad base runner, and going to end up in LF but is overall "fine" defensively. If we had him, I think we'd trust him to be the backup CF for 30+ games (which does have real value). He is a fine, average starting baseball player along the lines of a good Lane Thomas or Austin Hays year and those guys do have a pretty fun year and then get back to earth eventually even if they have a good 2-4 year run. I am interested in seeing if the defense spikes up in LF though which I imagine it will. He's a major leaguer to his credit and frankly, I hope Berry turns into the RF (or LF) version of this within a year as that would be amazing. But let's not go overboard and thinking he's some star player and the Marlins fucked up which is what you are insinuating. Because eventually, Lane Thomas and Austin Hays happens and this is who Bleday is. Kim was 100% right to her credit even if Bleday is turning into something.

And ultimately, I would still trade Bleday for Puk straight up today (partially based on Marlins needs as a shut down lefty reliever is high on the list of needs after the 3 bats IMO and Bleday isn't a SS/3B/CF), assuming Puk would sign a 4 year extension to make the service time equal as the money would net out for sure as Bleday will make a bunch in arbitration with playing time and counting stats. The reason is, Bleday looks to be a solid starter in likely LF (Norby is projecting for that slash line soon in our heads right, and will be a worse defender but a better base runner for instance so the difference isn't going to be dramatic even if Bleday is better because of likely much better LF defense??????) and Puk is the literal best left handed reliever in baseball this season with 1.7 WAR in 44 innings. Strahm is 1.8 WAR, but more innings in the bullpen and higher xFIP. All the analytics back up Puk's performance. It's much harder to find this level of reliever than a corner OF IMO. Hence, why I would stick with the high leverage reliever versus a non-star baseball player. Maybe this is wrong in a few years when we look back, but I am a bet on upside nearly always kind of guy versus betting on a floor. (This is also why I'd like McMillian to be on this team for months next year even if he's walking tons of guys and other guys have higher floors. Bet on the upside as that's how you create a perfect storm to win)

We shall see if Peter is right as all we should really be talking about is DDLS. Let's go DDLS. (And yes DDLS is also an upside swing which is conceptually good, and I'm arguing that here, but Puk is also showing the upside and he's the safer of the two, hence why Puk is just my guy here. We can leave it at this). No one wants your grandstanding here on whatever personal vendetta you're having, especially when it's objectively based on .070 expectancy doubles and Bleday's 2024 expected .758 OPS. Which I note, DLC's expected career OPS is .759 and we fucking hate DLC more than anything in the known universe, expect maybe Bruce Sherman.

Let's go DDLS and put to bed Bleday and Puk. Bleday is fine. Puk is flashing insane upside. May DDLS translate the contact to the MLB level and hit 200+ HR for the Marlins next 6+ seasons. Hopefully he takes Puk deep in a dramatic moment to clinch a playoff spot to bring this all full circle in a few years.

i've never seen anyone rely on expected numbers more than you despite years of evidence of the expected numbers not coming to fruition. especially when it comes to DLC. i again say that it is very clear you do not actually watch any of these players

again, he is not a terrible CF. he has below average range but savant has him as an overall above average fielding run value because he has one of the best OF arms in baseball. fangraphs has him at slightly below average overall defensively. I also love that bleday and his 3 WAR with a month left season is fine at a premium position, but puk as strictly a lefty bullpen arm with no hopes of ever starting has insane upside despite him shitting the bed anytime there is a key moment

[lou]

i mean that he wont be on the team next year and that wasting time talking about the guy because he hit 2 hr's yesterday against an equally terrible rockies team in coors is a waste of space. he has been on 5 teams in 2 years for a reason. he's 28 and in his minor league career only has a ..724 OPS in over 2600 career minor league plate appearances. you're seeing what you want to see and not what he has proven to be. he has 164 plate appearances against lefties in his career.

I am seeing what I want to see? Huh? I am saying he has a chance to stick on the 40 man roster (as this team is CHEAP AS FUCK), not making this sweeping declaration about a player.

Many guys change teams and then stick somewhere. He hammers lefties, is fast, and and has a big arm. He's 28. The analytics are suggestive he is pretty OK performance wise this year, but yes a SSS. Who cares about Coors, that gets baked into the overall profile. Just like Brujan, maybe he falls apart as yes there is no track record, but maybe he doesn't. However, maybe he does have a track record as he has a career .7 WAR in 446 PA and frankly, that is a good enough bench player. Regardless, he checks the boxes of a guy who has the tools to succeed at the MLB level (which is important) and it is a position of need. Some guys work out later (Berti). He has a big month in front him. So do many other guys. The only thing here is - let him play and hope for the best as there are interesting notes about him and if nothing more, was a smart waiver claim even if he turns into nothing.

Frankly, the current state of the year is 40 man evaluation so this IS what there is to talk about. This is evaluation time to churn the bottom of the 40 man.

So what do they have?

C Ramirez, Fortes, _____ Banfield (4) —> Maybe Pereda/Sanchez
1B/DH Burger, DDLS (2)
2B Edwards, Otto, Serna (3)
SS _____ (1)
3B _____,/Norby Pauley, ____ (3) ——> Maybe Bride(OOO), Hensley(1 option)
LF Norby/_____, Stowers (2) ——> Maybe Hensley(1 option)
CF _____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr. (3) ——> Maybe Hill(OOO) or Pache(OOO + Arbitration), Sasaki
RF Sanchez, Dane (2)
=20

SP Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett (5)
SP/RP Max, Weathers, Mazur, Fulton, ______ (5) ——> Maybe Bellozzo/Curry/Monteverde/Sixto
RHP Bender, Cronin, Faucher, Maldonado, ___, ____, and ____ (7) ----> Pick 3 of above guys and Soriano, Munoz, Ramirez, McMillian, Baumann, Oller, Other RHP on team, etc.
LHP Nardi, ____, Simpson (3)
=20



You can say this is irrelevant roster churning the bottom 25% of the roster, but practically getting 5+ guys from these bolds is an enormous benefit and really really helps the offseason picture. It's going to be a lot easier to navigate this offseason if Bellozzo or Curry look like a "quality 8th SP" they can put in AAA, they do get a McMillian breakout or enough inclination of that to keep him and two of those other guys look like good enough FB/SL relievers they can pop in AAA, and maybe in particular Bride or Hill sticksfor a bench 3B or right handed OF spot. This limits the offseason to really just getting 4-5 guys at that point which would be wonderful to really focus on some big picture things and feel confident about the rest.

So yes, this is what there is to talk about as beyond the obvious yes let Norby and Stowers play and hope they hit, getting guys out of those bolds is the # 1 September priority after "don't get hurt."