2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

Looking more and more like we fucked up trading Bleday. .775 OPS, on pace for 20-25 homers.

I don't know if I've ever been more happy about a pick than when we drafted him. Our fucking hitting development couldn't get him to this point quick enough.

I guess the question will be how good will DDLS be, because he's basically who we traded him for now, via the Puk trade.

[fish16]

punching bag has managed to rack up a -.6 WAR in less than a month for the pirates. Last 2 years now has a combined -1.0 WAR and for his career he is at .6 WAR in 1720 PA's

[fish16]

and not that we got much for him, but brazoban has been pretty mediocre in NY. Chargois has been good in SEA. Puk has been great for Arizona, and so has bell. tanner scott has been up and down for SD, but hoeing has been good for them. Trevor rogers has been who he has been for his entire career outside of the beginning of 2021- a thoroughly mediocre SP

[fish16]

noble meyer was great last night, as was Mazur in AAA

[lou]

Looking more and more like we fucked up trading Bleday. .775 OPS, on pace for 20-25 homers.

I don't know if I've ever been more happy about a pick than when we drafted him. Our fucking hitting development couldn't get him to this point quick enough.

I guess the question will be how good will DDLS be, because he's basically who we traded him for now, via the Puk trade.

Of all three of those players, I'd rather have Puk who is a top 10-20 overall reliever in baseball. 2.3 WAR in 98 innings as a reliever since starter of 2023. xFIP 3.01. He's exactly the lefty reliever piece the team needs and I really question if they needed a volatile DH type over him with everything else they have (Martorella, Berry, Johnson, maybe Ramirez, as well as cheap 1B/DH FA). I guess they really love DDLS as ascending and going to doink his way to something like a .260/.310/.500+ slash or more , but I'd rather have Puk and extend him out for 4/$16m sort of thing. I get the always be trading reliever thing, but elite pitching is king. And I'm still not convinced Puk doesn't convert to a SP. CJ Wilson did it when he was 29, etc.

Anyways, Bleday is still a poor defender and is pretty average offensively. He's OK. The declining whiff rate is great for him and paying huge dividends, but he's a LF/DH. I don't miss him at all. We'd consider him a piece for sure, but below Edwards, Burger, Sanchez, and Ramirez at minimum as a third tier bat (the Marlins have no tier 1 stud bat IMO). He's a Norby or Stowers having a good year.

I agree with your analysis though, DDLS better be close to as good as Bleday in the larger scheme of things or what happened here to get the worst guy of the 3? I would unfortunately, bet Bleday here as I'm expecting enormous whiff rates from DDLS. Hope I am wrong and he's more Burger than DLC.

[lou]

punching bag has managed to rack up a -.6 WAR in less than a month for the pirates. Last 2 years now has a combined -1.0 WAR and for his career he is at .6 WAR in 1720 PA's

We all are disappointed he didn't work out. Moving forward, Shim is very interesting IMO. I think they were perfect with how they gave DLC time and cut ship at the right time (pre-arb) and got something objectively super interesting back.

[fish16]

i'm not sure where you're getting that bleday is a poor defender. he has played only CF all year and fangraphs has him at just slightly below average. Savant has him as an 82% arm and 96% arm value with range of 28, all of which has improved from his first full year there last year. He's not a DH. He also isnt "pretty average offensively" He's got a 121 WRC+ and 122 OPS+ this year. He's a really good offensive player, has lowered his k rate a ton to 18% this year, and he still walks more than 10% of the time, doing all of that with a sub .280 BABIP. He is a really good player.

Puk also isnt all that valuable. He is awful in high leverage. his stats get progressively worse each of the last 2 years between low leverage, medium leverage, and then high leverage. His XFIP as a reliever this year is 3.01, not bad, but not top 10-20 overall reliever in baseball. This is another, watch the guy and youd know he's not as good as you think he is. He's good against lefties, and his swing and miss stuff goes down and his walk rate sky rockets against righties this year. He was 3.60 XFIP against righties last year. And last year he had the same type of splits depending on the leverage.

He is a good middle reliever, maybe a co-set up man, but he's not a late inning guy. I'd rather have bleday over all of them, but taking a chance on DDLS is better than puk. You can find quality relievers, especially those that crumble in the biggest moments.

[lou]

and not that we got much for him, but brazoban has been pretty mediocre in NY. Chargois has been good in SEA. Puk has been great for Arizona, and so has bell. tanner scott has been up and down for SD, but hoeing has been good for them. Trevor rogers has been who he has been for his entire career outside of the beginning of 2021- a thoroughly mediocre SP

Brazoban I think is really scary still to move for that low of a price. He's old, but he's fucking dealing and relievers do hold up into late 30s - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

I'd have kept Puk and Brazoban over DDLS, Pintar, and Lara for sure. But hope I am wrong. This freaks me out. 6.5 WAR this year - Brazoban, Bender, Cronin, Faucher, Puk (as a RP only*), Nardi, and Bellozzo. That is unbelievable production. Granted they still have 5 of those 7 and Maldonado may fill the void for one of them quickly, but still.

[fish16]

Brazoban I think is really scary still to move for that low of a price. He's old, but he's fucking dealing and relievers do hold up into late 30s - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

I'd have kept Puk and Brazoban over DDLS, Pintar, and Lara for sure. But hope I am wrong. This freaks me out. 6.5 WAR this year - Brazoban, Bender, Cronin, Faucher, Puk (as a RP only*), Nardi, and Bellozzo. That is unbelievable production. Granted they still have 5 of those 7 and Maldonado may fill the void for one of them quickly, but still.

brazoban is a soon to be 35 year old complete journeyman right handed reliever. you can find him very easily, and as an added bonus the replacements dont miss months every season due to the same visa issue every year. last year he had a 4.10 XFIP, this years it's 3.50. Not bad, but not something to lose sleep over losing at all. relievers are by far the easiest thing to find in baseball.

[lou]

i'm not sure where you're getting that he is a poor defender. he has played only CF all year and fangraphs has him at just below average. Savant has him as an 82% arm and 96% arm value with range of 28, all of which has improved from his first full year there last year. He's not a DH. He also isnt "pretty average offensively" He's got a 121 WRC+ and 122 OPS+ this year. He's a really good offensive player, has lowered his k rate a ton to 18% this year, and he still walks more than 10% of the time. He is a really good player.

Puk also isnt all that valuable. He is awful in high leverage. his stats get progressively worse each of the last 2 years between low leverage, medium leverage, and then high leverage. His XFIP as a reliever this year is 3.01, not bad, but not top 10-20 overall reliever in baseball. This is another, watch the guy and youd know he's not as good as you think he is. He's good against lefties, and his swing and miss stuff goes down and his walk rate sky rockets against righties this year. He was 3.60 XFIP against righties last year. And last year he had the same type of splits depending on the leverage.

He is a good middle reliever, maybe a co-set up man, but he's not a late inning guy. I'd rather have bleday over all of them, but taking a chance on DDLS is better than puk. You can find quality relievers, especially those that crumble in the biggest moments.

I don't find any of this compelling TBH. Bleday isn't really good with what he is showing, he's OK. He's a third division regular who is super average. Average bat, an acceptable below average fielder. No indication of massive power surge coming (35th percentile EV). Which is good to have, but he's not a top top piece. He's not an Edwards, Burger, Sanchez, or Ramirez. He's a Norby or Stowers having a good year. He's not surviving in CF with that range the same way Edwards is not surviving at SS with his range. I don't know what we don't get here about guys not having range? And yes, you should watch Puk and stop projecting. Like how he took out the Marlins a day ago.

For me, I'd rather have a floor top 5-8 lefty reliever in baseball that's cheap then a 3rd division starter in LF or volatile DH candidate. And I hope I am wrong and DDLS is actually an .800+ OPS awesome bat and more Burger than DLC. But I don't miss Bleday at all and take Puk all day who has vast more upside. I would take Bleday over DDLS though as the floor seems more higher and I'd take that over DDLS's power ceiling. Also, look at what relievers were traded for this deadline versus other asset types. I think MLB thinks these kind of relievers have massive value, and Bendix basically undersold Puk or he just really loves DDLS similar to how he really loves D. Head. I don't understand the constant "you can find relievers" when every team in baseball always needs relievers and trade massive hauls for the top ones. The marlins are 2nd in WAR for relievers this season with Faucher, Cronin, and Bender really standouts and Nardi pretty good, and they still need relievers (yes they traded 3 major ones which is why, but still they desperately need another lefty reliever right now unless Simpson just rips off next year). Everyone always needs good relievers.

[Nick]

Yeah, I’ve watched Bleday play a lot when he was in the organization. He is not a poor defender. You’re overrating Puk by a lot. He was up and down as a reliever in 2023. He was up and down this year but you’ve just convinced yourself that you can ignore that and chalk it up to he can’t start. He will hit a downturn again.

[lou]

brazoban is a soon to be 35 year old complete journeyman right handed reliever. you can find him very easily, and as an added bonus the replacements dont miss months every season due to the same visa issue every year. last year he had a 4.10 XFIP, this years it's 3.50. Not bad, but not something to lose sleep over losing at all. relievers are by far the easiest thing to find in baseball.

The equation is not losing sleep, its - is Lara better. I'd take Brazoban over Lara (FV35+). I don't care that he is 35 compared to Lara. He's throwing hot lava and yes I agree with all the points he's older, a journeyman, does he actually have longer term visa issues, etc. He probably isn't having a performance jump as its a SSS size, but he is throwing hot lava right now and has a 1.2 WAR his last 100 innings. That is pretty good, and he is trending better than that with what he's showing this year (.7 WAR in 40 innings). I'd be fine moving him for sure, but would expect something better than a guy outside the top 30 you know? That's all I'm saying here. I said this immediately when they happened, the Puk and Brazoban trades were my least favorite and hope I'm wrong and DDLS is a Burger and Lara makes it as a utility IF or whatever.

[lou]

Yeah, I’ve watched Bleday play a lot when he was in the organization. He is not a poor defender. You’re overrating Puk by a lot. He was up and down as a reliever in 2023. He was up and down this year but you’ve just convinced yourself that you can ignore that and chalk it up to he can’t start. He will hit a downturn again.

We can agree to disagree. He gave up a lot of solo bombs last year which happens. I think the issue is everyone hates their own relievers, and then you look at what everyone else is throwing across baseball and all of sudden your relievers look pretty good. Marlins have the 2nd best bullpen this year - and who here thinks that is a true statement as it is via Fangraph's system. That's how bad relievers are elsewhere where as what looks like a mediocre bunch of right handers with excellent lefties, is churning out that much production.

Puk's statcast has fully recovered with the fire he has thrown since going back to the pen (with the walks down because of the SP experiment) - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb. He's a stud reliever and will likely be for years. Bleday and DDLS are never going to get to this kind of upside absent huge hit profile changes for Bleday or DDLS managing the whiffs/chase (according to scouts), even if in a vacuum they are more valuable as potential everyday players versus 60-70 IP a season. Personally, I think it's easier to find bat options in FA versus a reliever like Puk. I'd take that bet. It is OK if someone else would not. I hope Peter is right, I just do not like the Puk and Brazoban deals.

[fish16]

I don't find any of this compelling TBH. Bleday isn't really good with what he is showing, he's OK. He's a third division regular who is super average. Average bat, an acceptable below average fielder. No indication of massive power surge coming (35th percentile EV). Which is good to have, but he's not a top top piece. He's not an Edwards, Burger, Sanchez, or Ramirez. He's a Norby or Stowers having a good year. He's not surviving in CF with that range the same way Edwards is not surviving at SS with his range. I don't know what we don't get here about guys not having range? And yes, you should watch Puk and stop projecting. Like how he took out the Marlins a day ago.

For me, I'd rather have a floor top 5-8 lefty reliever in baseball that's cheap then a 3rd division starter in LF or volatile DH candidate. And I hope I am wrong and DDLS is actually an .800+ OPS awesome bat and more Burger than DLC. But I don't miss Bleday at all and take Puk all day who has vast more upside. I would take Bleday over DDLS though as the floor seems more higher and I'd take that over DDLS's power ceiling. Also, look at what relievers were traded for this deadline versus other asset types. I think MLB thinks these kind of relievers have massive value, and Bendix basically undersold Puk or he just really loves DDLS similar to how he really loves D. Head. I don't understand the constant "you can find relievers" when every team in baseball always needs relievers and trade massive hauls for the top ones. The marlins are 2nd in WAR for relievers this season with Faucher, Cronin, and Bender really standouts and Nardi pretty good, and they still need relievers (yes they traded 3 major ones which is why, but still they desperately need another lefty reliever right now unless Simpson just rips off next year). Everyone always needs good relievers.

i mean, you can call him super average, but the fact is he has objectively put up a 122 WRC+ and OPS+, making him a 20+% better than league average hitter this year in a terrible lineup in a terrible stadium and just overall terrible situation in oakland. He wasn't even supposed to be a CF, and he has been passable there. You call him a "3rd division starter" in LF, while he's put up the 8th best war in CF among full time players there this year. To act as if he is not a better piece than sanchez is just more overrating sanchez, which you love to do a lot for a guy who has been thoroughly mediocre for years now.

You compare him to edwards range, where edwards has 7% range and bleday is 4 times better at 28%, with which his elite arm and very good bat, equates to a very good overall hitter.

Bendix didnt undersell Puk, you just overrate him.

On the point of "finding lefty relievers", you did the same thing 2 years ago and they had some of the best lefty relievers in baseball for the last 2 years because, again, good relievers are not difficult to find. Look at the list of who you named. Nardi was a low draft pick, Faucher and Cronin were cheap trade additions or waiver claims, and bender was a nothing player they got for cheap.

[Nick]

A.J. Puk's Career WAR:

Fangraphs: 2.8
BR: 2.5

JJ Bleday's WAR 2024:

Fangraphs: 2.6
BR: 2.9