2024 Game Thread

[lou]

i've never seen anyone rely on expected numbers more than you despite years of evidence of the expected numbers not coming to fruition. especially when it comes to DLC. i again say that it is very clear you do not actually watch any of these players

again, he is not a terrible CF. he has below average range but savant has him as an overall above average fielding run value because he has one of the best OF arms in baseball. fangraphs has him at slightly below average overall defensively. I also love that bleday and his 3 WAR with a month left season is fine at a premium position, but puk as strictly a lefty bullpen arm with no hopes of ever starting has insane upside despite him shitting the bed anytime there is a key moment

Why are you still on this? The *only* thing about DLC who you are still talking about and seriously give it up already, is the analytics profile suggested he could be a real good bat (trended to a DH for sure because the defense is awful) so because of that, they should play him and see what happens. And you know what happened? The Marlins played him. And played him hard to find out. You yelled and screamed he would never get 500 PA and they got him 626 PA last year. The Pirates are also playing him hard. So whatever vendetta you are having, just note actual baseball teams agree with me that there may be something there via the slugging profile, and they are smarter than us. That isn't to say he's going to be good, it's just that you try these guys out as typically performances regress to the mean. It's why guys don't have .400 BABIPs forever and getting excited about Edwards being an .850 OPS offensive SS with a BABIP north of .400 is just plain silly. I'm typing this to help you as you make these statements projecting how no one watches baseball, and frankly, guys like DLC play so yea, are you watching baseball because DLC playing to try him out tracks the data, and if you actually did see all the other awful hitters across baseball, you'd realize there is some real hope in DLC because guys like Gordon and Brujan are way more common and they are way worse of players. Your eyeball test isn't a good position, but if you have this keen ability to watch players and know things, I suggest you send a resume to clubs as that would be quite the skill. Glad you like Bleday. He's totally fine this year but he's going to be a solid, unspectacular LF sooner rather than later unless some real slugging shows up or he becomes the defensive Varsho of LF. Neither will probably happen absent a swing tweak and he does get more pull power. I like Puk better who is currently the best LHP reliever in baseball and yes, even the best relievers in baseball shit the bed and give up random bombs.


Let's Go DDLS and enough about Bleday and Puk and DLC please. Let's Go Shim too and can't wait till he's healthy as he seems fun.

[fish16]

the best lefty reliever in baseball was the 2nd best lefty reliever in our own pen this year and was the third most reliable lefty in our pen last year.

[Nick]

Griff just crushed one off the foul pole.

[Nick]

Watching Meyer right now is painful.

[Namaste]

Ya Max is cooked

[lou]

Ya Max is cooked

He's pitched more innings this year than 2021-2023 combined. He gets probably 2 more starts (Phillies, @ Wash) so hopefully he ends strong. Slider is there but nothing else.

[Nick]

If his fastball is 93 mph, I just don’t see how he makes it work.

[fish16]

his average fastball has been 94.2 this year after being 94.9 in his 2 starts in 2022. I think he's fine. he is also up to 115 innings a year off of TJ so he could just be running out of gas. as long as he's going 5 innings im cool with him and just build him up to go 150 next year if needed. His XFIP has been significantly lower than his ERA and his FIP in every start but 1 since he came back. Just keep on building those innings and going at least 5 every time out and move on to next year. He's at 115 IP so far. If he can get up to 130 by seasons end then build him up next year for anywhere from 150-170 IP, that is a win.

[fish16]

jesus sanchez has been across the board worse than last year in the same number of games.
Lower BB%, lower average, lower OBP, lower slugging, lower WAR, lower WRC+, lower iso. only thing better than last year is a negligible difference in K% and more SB's.

[fish16]

good to see xavier edwards back after a minimal stint on the IL. not surprising to see an 0-5 after no rehab games.

Norby continues to impress. he has a clearly impact MLB bat. Edwards, Norby, Burger is a decent start to a lineup that will hopefully add Ramirez, Serna, DDLS, mack, and more in the coming years. Need to trade luzardo for 2 more impact bats for me to think we have a realistic chance of being a good team next year.

[lou]

If his fastball is 93 mph, I just don’t see how he makes it work.

Statcast says 94 average FWIW just to mention on the season for the FB. He could be having a late season dead arm period a little right now. This is a lot of innings for him. More than 3 years is no joke. His peak velocity gets over 95 still. It looks like he reserved some juice 2nd-4th innings and ramped it up closer to the end. I just checked his first 3 games to open the year and he was throwing just a little bit harder it seems than now (more 95+ pitches, etc.), but not by much. But practically, 94.5 versus 93.1 mph is a real change if this is where he's going to fall on a big picture level, and he needs to be living on the better end of that with peaks above it without a legitimate 3rd pitch.

The point here, we knew this from the time of draft but he always had reliever risk as a littler dude (6 feet) and lack of an established third pitch where that was all projection he'd find it on top of the wipe out slider which is a legitimate out pitch. Which he still thankfully has it looks. The obvious comment is if he is going to need to throw harder to survive, this is either (1) this is a rehab year and it will be fine next year averaging 95+. Guys do come in every spring throwing 1-2 MPH harder and those are the breakout candidates and he sure is hell is one of them with the slider. Add in minor progression on a third pitch which he clearly knows he needs + he is a competitor for sure versus other guys and wants to be great unlike Sixto who wants to be great at eating pringles, this will all work out and have to give him runway to get there. Or (2) he is reserving a little juice to go longer in games right now, and just make the call to turn him into a two pitch, two inning, 1 time through reliever. He would probably be great at it right away and 84 great Max innings over 42 appearances is better than 145 shittier ones.

A hard decision probably doesn't need to be made for awhile, but I think the soft line in the sand is he has until Eury's return, as that also may align with Snelling and Mazur biding for MLB time, as well as it's not outside possibility that White has a meteoric rise and assaults AA hard in May and June next year and just has to come up.

I don't know the answer, but much like how I feel about Cabrera, I think Max will be fine and an asset. I just won't pick a role. SP? RP? Hybrid mutli inning guy? They will figure out how to get something out of both of these guys. Ultimately, I lean on Max hasn't pitched in 3 years and is getting tired right now so just get some innings, worry about conditioning, don't get hurt, and let the Marlins coaches figure out the right usage.

[lou]

his average fastball has been 94.2 this year after being 94.9 in his 2 starts in 2022. I think he's fine. he is also up to 115 innings a year off of TJ so he could just be running out of gas. as long as he's going 5 innings im cool with him and just build him up to go 150 next year if needed. His XFIP has been significantly lower than his ERA and his FIP in every start but 1 since he came back. Just keep on building those innings and going at least 5 every time out and move on to next year. He's at 115 IP so far. If he can get up to 130 by seasons end then build him up next year for anywhere from 150-170 IP, that is a win.

I was typing the other thing, but yes. The bold is all great, but the Marlins would never let him throw 170 IP next year (or probably ever) to quib in his current form. 150 is probably the max. He is a high stress arm remember - huge slider usage (40%). He is never throwing 170 unless that goes down 10% and he can throw FB/CU 70% of the time or so. And he doesn't have a viable changeup. Which is all fine. I bet they throw him twice more and shut him down. Then regroup in the offseason of what to do.

[lou]

jesus sanchez has been across the board worse than last year in the same number of games.
Lower BB%, lower average, lower OBP, lower slugging, lower WAR, lower WRC+, lower iso. only thing better than last year is a negligible difference in K% and more SB's.

This one is extremely easy - he is getting close to double the PA against lefties, and is hitting 100 OPS points lower than them than last year. It's dragging everything down. You know, how we all wanted them to give him time against lefties and see if he is something more and well, he is not. He has a .790 OPS against righties, and last year was .809. That's a minor dip but not much ultimately. He's the same guy as last year against right handers, with better defense this year, so overall this is actually an improvement for him against what matters even if it's getting worse about lefties but that should never be a thing.

Keep playing him as why not (getting killed by lefties only helps his arbitration case!), but next year this is a hard platoon with another OF against lefties, and he can be removed situationally against lefties 3rd/4th time up depending on game conditions. It's just who he is. He's a really plus starter against RHP, an epic pinch hitter against them the other games, and a potentially solid defensive sub. We agree that a buyout shouldn't really be on the table (unless really cheap), but this is the perfect kind of guy to go year to year with in arbitration.

He's fine. Let's not do this on Sanchez and have him be the DLC replacement. Sanchez is fine. He hits righties, plays defense, and is cheap. And analytically, statcast says he is owed 105(!) OPS points and should be hitting .270/.325/.499(!) overall which is really something. He is probably closer to that than his current line (.719 OPS) if we split the difference, so just deploy him correctly next year against righties.

[lou]

good to see xavier edwards back after a minimal stint on the IL. not surprising to see an 0-5 after no rehab games.

Norby continues to impress. he has a clearly impact MLB bat. Edwards, Norby, Burger is a decent start to a lineup that will hopefully add Ramirez, Serna, DDLS, mack, and more in the coming years. Need to trade luzardo for 2 more impact bats for me to think we have a realistic chance of being a good team next year.

Norby has a .198/.239/.369 expected slash this season and is striking out 30% of the time with a 5% BB rate, so going all the way to "impact bat" is a bit premature IMO. This is a SSS and he's young, but Norby has a lot of work to do even if he has looked vastly better here and there. He has whiffed 7 times the last 3 games for instance even with getting some XBH during that time. Those whiffs need to go dramatically down. For perspective, Stowers expected offensive outcome is .233/.286/.408 (he has a current .708 OPS against RHP, so yea a SSS here too, but this is underachieving so he probably ticks up and is also a good starter against right handers as a side note here). Optimistically Norby's Baltimore exposure is dragging him down and we have a better picture end of the month when he is more comfortable. Looks like a piece for sure, but "impact" is the point here and we're a ways off from that with the whiffs and unsure defensive position. I will frankly be happy if he is a .740 OPS hitter, which splits a little higher versus LHP, a solid enough defensive LF that can dabble at 2B/3B, a good base runner (95th percentile sprint speed which I did not expect!), and he's a 450+ PA guy part of a smart LF/IF platoon with Stowers vs RHP in left/off days for infielders against RHP.


I also have a hard time seeing Luzardo getting traded off an injury, but that's going to be the story of the offseason. They can probably scrap by a year with Norby, Burger, DDLS, and whoever (Sanjoa? Pauley? Bride makes it?) covering 3B just to see what happens with them, but I do think they have a chance to be good if they get a big time SS and CF (i.e those 2 bats), and maintain all the pitching (with signing a SP to replace one if they do trade one of them like Luzardo, etc.). They have a real chance to be good if they can get 90+ starts out of Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, and Garrett, and Weathers, Max, and gang can cover the rest with a FA SP if the Luzardo move actually happens, etc.

[fish16]

I was typing the other thing, but yes. The bold is all great, but the Marlins would never let him throw 170 IP next year (or probably ever) to quib in his current form. 150 is probably the max. He is a high stress arm remember - huge slider usage (40%). He is never throwing 170 unless that goes down 10% and he can throw FB/CU 70% of the time or so. And he doesn't have a viable changeup. Which is all fine. I bet they throw him twice more and shut him down. Then regroup in the offseason of what to do.

guys can improve. he's pitched 63 major league innings with a TJ surgery thrown in the middle and a super dumb handling of him this year thrown in the mix. he probably doesnt because of the "depth" we have at SP, but it's worthless to talk about because we had depth this year and not a single guy out of that depth stayed healthy for even half the year. He's going to end the year at 130 or so innings between the big leagues and minors. There is no reason why he wouldnt be capable of throwing 150-170 if the injuries shake out the way they would need to in order for him to be in the rotation all year. Realistically he will be a hybrid multi inning reliever and starter next year, or he starts the year in the rotation and moves to the bullpen when eury comes back in order to keep him effective down the stretch. It's way too early to say that he never throws 170 innings when they clearly envision him as a starter.