2024 Game Thread

[lou]

i'd say that's probably the best game you could have gone to. saw history and one of the best individual hitting games ever. what was the best case scenario? you see a terrible team about to lose 100 games win 1?

He went the night before.


Side note - I feel for you Namaste. I decided to go to a bar drinking with friends than watch Roy Halladay pitch that perfect game. I am still fucking mad 15 years later.

[lou]

Other news

Berry since May 25th is now 349 PA, .288/.361/.447 (.327 BABIP), 9.5% BB, 16.6% K. His slash has dipped from a few weeks ago, but the BABIP has dropped which is good and still maintaining a good line and BB/K. I think I mentioned, but pipeline did a quiet update and he was out of the top 30 in their big midseason update, but just moved him back in at 21 (this is below Mesa Jr., Pintar, and Marsee for some perspective, but I suppose Berry may be a higher floor bat, with the other three higher floor players as they may be able to handle CF competently so they get raised a little, etc.). Of course all fringe guys here.

They don't do the splits on MiLB per level/month, but overall this year Berry has a 125 OPS RHP advantage (.704 vs .572 vs LHP). In 2023 is was the opposite, so who knows. I'd like to know since May 25th when he first started hitting a bit.

Ultimately, I do hope they get Colin Moran out of him at a minimum - which was 1.9 WAR in around 1200 PA in 2017-2020. If he can play 1B/RF/LF that is going to be fine for the bench, especially with a split advantage. I'm not sure there is much more hope than this, absent a swing change that can tap into the power. Everything says lower EV so this is such a bummer of a draft pick when directly after him Brooks Lee (SS/3B), Jace Jung (3B), and Zach Neto (SS) were drafted and boy could they use one of them.

[fish16]

it's ridiculous that ohtani can just decide to steal 50 bags for the hell of it while also hitting 50 bombs since he couldnt pitch this year. just a ridiculous player

[fish16]

watching the brewers every year, that is the franchise we should be looking to become. never more than middle of the pack payroll, also make salary cutting moves like trading burnes instead of signing him, but always find a way to compete.

[Namaste]

The Brewers have lost the Wild Card series 3 of the last 5 years and haven’t won a LCS in 42 years.

No thanks. I think they make the playoffs a lot because they play in a weak division.

fish16, I missed the Marlins 11-9 win over the Dodgers and also missed probably the greatest individual offensive game in the history of baseball. You must have missed a post.

[fish16]

the brewers have made the playoffs 5 out of the last 6 years and won 89 or more games 4 out of the last full 5 seasons on a mid level payroll. They lost to the NL champion in 2018, the world series champion in 2019, the world series champion in 2020, the world series champion in 2021, missed the playoffs in 2022 despite winning more games than we did when we made the playoffs last year, and then lost to the nl champion last year. We have made the playoffs in a legitimate season 1 time in 21 years. We havent won a playoff game with an attendance higher than 0 in 21 years. the playoffs in baseball are a crapshoot, they consistently get a mid level payroll to the playoffs. our best seasons since 2010 would be their worst season in 7 years. they are an incredibly well run team. they have the 24th highest opening day payroll this year, 20th last year,. 17th in 2022, 21st in 2021, 23rd in 2020, 16th in 2019, and 26th in 2018. Never had a higher opening day payroll than 108 million.

They play in a division with a cardinals team that has been under .500 once before this year since 1999, and the cubs who consistently have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and had the best core in baseball for the last half of the 2010's. It's like saying the braves play in a weak division because the division has the marlins and nationals.

[Namaste]

Yeah both Central divisions are known for being real tough

[fish16]

Yeah both Central divisions are known for being real tough

ya, they are just lucking themselves into the playoffs consistently. over the last 10 years the NL Central win percentage is .502, 3rd toughest behind the AL East and NL West. The NL East is 5th at .492, and the AL Central is dead last at .476.

Every division has bad teams. The brewers have been one of the best teams in baseball with bottom 10 payrolls for a while.

[Namaste]

I’d rather be the Brewers than the Marlins I’ll give you that. But they’re always the least feared team (or close to it) in the playoffs.

[fish16]

I’d rather be the Brewers than the Marlins I’ll give you that. But they’re always the least feared team (or close to it) in the playoffs.

last 3 words- in the playoffs. just gotta get to the playoffs and see what happens and they do it consistently with a low payroll. dodgers have also lost in the first round each of the last 2 years. shit happens. we talk up the rays as well and they've been swept each of the last 2 years as well. granted, their best player missed the end of the year because they were a pedophile.

[fish16]

DDLS hit his 40th hr and it went 476 feet.

[lou]

Well since nothing is going on, random notes:


Bullpen (and how it impacts the offseason):

Baumann with the Marlins has a 2.85 xFIP, 12+ K/9. SSS and hasn't been great on his traveling around teams this team, but he mjght be better than we all think he is. His out pitch is a knuckle curve, which is unique for the right hander pen guys (Bender - Sweeper, Oller - Slurve, Petersen and Faucher a Cutter (but Faucher also throws a curve), Bellozo a Sweeper/Cutter and more, .... and Tinoco, Cronin, McMillian, and Maldonado all slider dependent). If we're viewing bullpen repertoire, it makes some sense to see if Baumann is a Bendix special and the Marlins pitching program fixes him as he has high velocity and a good 2nd pitch. It is a classic Rays kind of arm they figure out. Practically, I kind of like the idea of starting off with Faucher (cutter), Bender (sweeper), "Slider guy", Oller (slurve), and Baumann (knuckle curve) as the right handed pen next year as it's different looks, and they have options on Maldonado, Petersen, Bellozo, and Cronin/McMillian to keep them in AAA until someone gets hurt. Effectively, they probably can trade a slider reliever (Cronin or Tinoco presumably, as McMillian has the highest upside, and Maldonado isn't proven yet, so Cronin as he's younger and Tinoco is OOO even if pitching well). I think I'd aim for this right now:

Trade - Cronin. Always be trading relievers

MLB SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers
MLB RHP RP - Faucher, Bender, Tinoco, Oller, Baumann
MLB LHP - Nardi, Veneziano

And that’s a bullpen of… Cutter, Sweeper, Slider, Slurve, and Knuckle Curves from the right handers, and slider dependent lefties but that’s just what they have. A very nice variety to keep teams off balance. Oller and Veneziano can both throw 2-3 innings so that works for longmen on each side.

Rest of 40 man:

AAA/AA/IL SP - Eury, Bellozo, Mazur, Fulton
AAA RHP RP - McMillian, Maldonado, Petersen
AAA LHP RP - Simpson

I think this group would collectively get over 300 IP (plus Snelling, and Monteverde or Pushard types who rise) so whoever gets to the top here will get theirs in innings for sure. That sounds like a lot, but if Eury/Snelling/Mazur get 20+ starts, Bellozo another 10, and McMillian, Maldonado, and Petersen combine for 100+ innings, it really chunks together close to that number very fast. To note, Petersen also has huge velocity so I think especially with an option and off a good year in AAA, he falls into a project pitcher keep unless something better appears on waivers


To Bendix's credit, it's kind of crazy he has shipped out Puk, Scott, Brazoban, Hoeing, and Chargois, and let's say he ships out Cronin too, and that's kind of like a full above average bullpen going out, and through a series of waiver claims, trading for Faucher, and inheriting Bender and Nardi, he's moslty rebuilt the pen on the fly. At minimum, Tinoco, McMillian, and Veneziano are probably pretty solid even if Oller, Baumann, Bellozo, and Petersen all end up into the "churnable last guys" on 40 bucket. The only thing missing is 1 ace reliever (i.e. Puk and pray for DDLS contact rates), and McMillian is the only shot for one of them if he finds control..... But maybe Max does end up being moved here as a FB/Slider closer and thats that with the best possible 5some being Max, McMillian, Faucher, Bender, and Baumann/Oller/Petersen.

The very big picture point is, they probably have every arm they need (assuming healthy to open year besides Eury) and can move a reliever if they feel confident over these waiver claims or finding new ones as boy did they churn some arms here. Or, if Luzardo is moved, sign a FA SP and swap him into his spot and that's that. That's probably the best idea - combine Luzardo and Cronin and say Noble, Serna/Edwards, and a few FV40 guys a long time away and get two major young bats with them. That's a lot of guys.


Defense

Norby - 41st percentile arm strength, and fielding range is trending down. This is probably a half year or less experiment next year before the inevitable move to LF. But for purposes of do they need a 3B for next year, this is probably not a big expenditure and let Norby surprise.

Bride - 2nd percentile arm strength. He isn't a 3B. He sticks until DDLS is called up and that's that.

Edwards - He's down to 2nd percentile range at SS, and a 6th percentile defender. 20th arm strength

Otto - 97th percentile range at 2B, 36th percentile arm strength. I mean come on Marlins. It's time to move Edwards.


Bat 40


C Fortes, Ramirez, Banfield
1B/DH Burger, Bride(OOO), DDLS
2B Edwards, Otto(OOO), Serna
SS _____
3B Norby, Pauley
LF Stowers, Hill(OOO)
CF ____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr.
RF Sanchez, Dane
=19

*I have them keeping 21 pitchers above, but my idea now is they sign a veteran catcher to platoon with Fortes to a MiLB deal and when Eury is IL'd they are moved up. A strategy to keep 1 more pitcher for the time being.

This needs a lot of work. As mentioned, I'd move all of Luzardo, Cronin, Noble, Serna/Edwards, and a few FV40 games and aim to get a SS and CF, sign that veteran catcher as mentioned above, and then with Serna/Edwards spot, get a cheap veteran 3B (Moncada? J. Davis?). The rest of the money replaces Luzardo.

So opening day is something like this:

C Fortes, New Veteran catcher (Cheap)
1B/DH Burger, Bride
2B Edwards,
SS Guy for Luzardo, Otto
3B Norby, Veteran 3B (cheap)
LF Stowers/Dane, Hill
CF Guy for Noble/Serna
RF Sanchez

Ramirez, DDLS, the other of Stowers/Dane, and Sanoja are breathing down the catchers, Bride, and Hill's necks who all effectively get 1-3 months before being replaced. Of course they could sign a legitimate FA too and not make so many trades, but it is what it is.



This is getting closer ultimately to being good. I'd say it is SP health, and adding 2 great and 2 good platoon players away from being a very viable team, and those are all bats. Prior to 2024, I thought they needed 6-7 guys so I suppose this is progress as it's less guys, and the farm system is 2-3x better than it was with an incoming top 3 pick and presumably Salas, who Pipeline did an update as the # 4 overall international guy and they rate a FV55.... which according to pipeline means, he's the 2nd or 3rd best player in the Marlins system after White, and Noble is a toss up (https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/i...4xNzIwODA2MTA0).


So spend some money Bruce, assuming all the SP health reports are good

[lou]

More importantly, Passan talking about the Pirates here but how Pat McAfee physically reacts is exactly how I feel - https://x.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1838981251019272496

So much yes. Way to go Jeff.

[sports24/7]

With last night’s loss, the Marlins clinched having the best odds in the draft lottery along with the Rockies. I mentioned this point earlier in the year, but usually it’s the bottom 3 teams, but there’s a caveat to a small market team being down there for so many years that they are bumped down, and that’s the case for the White Sox this year. Because it’s the Marlins, I’m sure they’ll drop down significantly during the lottery, but for now we can hope (and also hope they don’t fuck the pick up).

[Nick]

We signed 18-year old Cuban SS Luis Leon for $1.5 Mil.