2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

I doubt that is enough. Anderson is having a down year so far but he is an absolute stud. 2 WAR or better 6 out of 7 years with peaks in the 4 range. With this year and next year under control for not a ton of money, he will fetch 2 good prospects plus no need to take on any money. Fulton and Watson or a guy in Watson's range would be the price id assume.

Oooh, not sure I like that. He's been bad this year. Like Jon Berti has been a significantly better player. You're the one to dog on guys for lack of power. 6 HRs in his last 504 ABs.

[fish16]

We definitely need an upgrade, but Joey wendle is starting to swing the bat a little better. Overall pedestrian numbers but a .777 OPS over the last 30 days.

[Nick]

To me, a power hitting upgrade to Segura is probably the biggest need. Not sure there's an option that makes sense out there, though.

[fish16]

Oooh, not sure I like that. He's been bad this year. Like Jon Berti has been a significantly better player. You're the one to dog on guys for lack of power. 6 HRs in his last 504 ABs.

that's fair but id bet on the track record. Consistently he has been a 2+ WAR guy with peaks in the 4's. The white sox have been a train wreck and he himself has had some personal off the field issues (due to his own infidelity but still) so it's a bet on the track record with the potential for a big peak, especially next year when he can become a free agent again at 30. 14 million club option is pricey but if he has a normal year he's worth it, if he has a peak year it's huge surplus value. There is always the potential to be another guy who comes here and forgets to hit but it's not like he's signed 5+ years. I'd take the risk. I think it can push us to the playoffs. Id do everything in my power to get Grandal as well though. We need to upgrade Stallings.

It's probably going to be another lesser guy in another deal because Grandal is a lot of money the rest of the year and fortes is good enough, but we need an improvement over stallings desperately. Not sure who else it would be though. The guy in colorado Elias doesnt do it for me. Bad track record, and he has an OPS of 1.052 in Colorado and .620 on the road. He would flame out here.

[fish16]

To me, a power hitting upgrade to Segura is probably the biggest need. Not sure there's an option that makes sense out there, though.

wouldnt hurt, but id upgrade SS and bet on him regressing to the mean and having a good second half. He is not this bad and the peripherals are right in line with his career.

[Nick]

I'd be working a Trevor Rogers-Jordan Westburg trade as hard as I can. Orioles need a 5th starter badly.

[lou]

Would the White Sox consider something like:

To MIA: Tim Anderson and Lance Lynn

To CWS: Avisail Garcia, Dax Fulton and Javier Sanoja

Basically White Sox take on about an additional $19 million in Garcia. (Only an additional $6 million if you assume they would exercise Anderson's Option next year) to get two good prospects in Fulton and Sanoja. Marlins get a 2nd Cueto in Lynn who possibly makes it easier to move another one of their arms before the deadline. Lynn's off the books after next year.

I LOVE this idea, but I have a hard time seeing this as they aren't a sisters of the poor franchise so dumping Lynn to take on Garcia doesn't seem like a move they would do. If they are going to trade Anderson, I think they will want a top 100 guy and that is fair despite his struggles as he has pedigree and controlled next year.


How about get even crazier. This is effectively dollar for dollar (not including Anderson or Garcia's options)

T. Anderson, Lynn, Grandal, J. Kelly

A. Garcia, M. Barnes, and then four prospects --- > Eder/Meyer, Amaya/Mack/Edwards/Mesa Jr., FV40 RHP (Miller, Millbrandt, Pushard, Maldonado, Reynolds), Outside top 30 (Groshans/I. Lewis/literally whoever)

On a big picture level, they'll be able to offload Anderson aggressively for a major prospect (Eder/Meyer) so I don't think Fulton gets it done unless they truly love him. Kelly is a classic deadline reliever to move so they'd have to pay for him (FV40), and something like Garcia/Barnes/FV45/40+ prospect, and flyer prospect for Lynn and Grandal in a mutual dump makes sense. Those guys don't get a lot, so they get two bench projection guys and can kick the tires on their old friend Garcia and maybe Barnes they can shoot out in a healthy July.


Fortes, Grandal (everyone be stealing but do we care?)
Cooper/Yuli
Arraez
T. Anderson, Wendle
Segura, Berti
DLC, Soler
Jazz, J. Davis
Sanchez

Sandy, Cabrera, Cueto, Lynn (Eury AAA)
Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett
Floro, Chargois, J. Kelly (Brazoban AAA)
Puk, Scott, Okert (Nardi AAA)

DFA - Stallings and one of Yuli/Cooper because why not just keep Davis at this stage(?)


Before being yelled at, Eury down is clearly a procedural move as they then package quickly say..... Luzardo, J. Kelly, and Okert (saves $6m so now the Marlins are AHEAD in money overall) to the Yankees for Peraza or Baltimore for Westburg (them or Anderson can play 2B and Arraez shifts over) and the Marlins now DFA J. Davis and hope he sneaks through, and call up Eury, Brazoban, and Nardi.

That would be really fun. They play CHW soon so maybe they can save money on flights and just take the guys with them. Every dollar counts.

[lou]

Oooh, not sure I like that. He's been bad this year. Like Jon Berti has been a significantly better player. You're the one to dog on guys for lack of power. 6 HRs in his last 504 ABs.

Look at Anderson LHP splits, and I think you do bet on the pedigree. He has been a bit banged up.

Worst case scenario he is an amazing platoon starter against all LHP and a lot of right handers, and maybe this is a change of scenery to a contender explosion scenario. I think it is a good bet with a reasonable floor for what they need as I do agree, Wendle and Berti can handle RHP enough and maybe Segura does anything. That's a good infield.

[Nick]

Look at Anderson LHP splits, and I think you do bet on the pedigree. He has been a bit banged up.

Worst case scenario he is an amazing platoon starter against all LHP and a lot of right handers, and maybe this is a change of scenery to a contender explosion scenario. I think it is a good bet with a reasonable floor for what they need as I do agree, Wendle and Berti can handle RHP enough and maybe Segura does anything. That's a good infield.

If we trade for him, he makes $26.5 million in 2023 and 2024, he better be more than a LHP split guy.

[lou]

If we trade for him, he makes $26.5 million in 2023 and 2024, he better be more than a LHP split guy.

It's a bet. 2021 Jorge Soler to the Braves bet.


But do this and save $6mish dollars

T. Anderson, Lynn, Grandal, J. Kelly
A. Garcia, Barnes, Eder, Amaya, S. Reynolds, I. Lewis, Flyer Prospect

Luzardo, J. Kelly, Okert
Peraza/Westburg and some flyer prospects

I think they'd both do it. That's a good haul for Anderson and parts, and that's a real trifecta of pitchers for a contender now and later.


With 1 more SP still to trade to upgrade a spot as 2024 lines up Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Garrett, Rogers, and Cueto, and Meyer, Fulton, and Monteverde are in AAA, and they'd have Lynn for 2023.


What does JD Davis cost who is only controlled next year, or 32 year old Mike Yastrzemski who plays solid CF? I bet Fulton and friends get it done to retain Meyer, Cappe, and Watson here.

[Nick]

How about this mother fuckers?

MIA gets:

Jordan Westburg, James McCann

BAL gets:

Trevor Rogers, Dylan Floro

Baltimore needs help with a 5th starter and their bullpen has been overall pretty bad. This helps big time. Westburg comes up immediately, plays every day, both SS and 3B whatever combination works best with Wendle, Berti and Segura. We get our veteran backup to dump Stallings.

[Nick]

Then we wait and see what is our biggest need at the deadline, and we have the entire farm system at our disposal.

[lou]

How about this mother fuckers?

MIA gets:

Jordan Westburg, James McCann

BAL gets:

Trevor Rogers, Dylan Floro

Baltimore needs help with a 5th starter and their bullpen has been overall pretty bad. This helps big time. Westburg comes up immediately, plays every day, both SS and 3B whatever combination works best with Wendle, Berti and Segura. We get our veteran backup to dump Stallings.

I think that works if Rogers shows he's healthy and comes back strong.

Luzardo gets that done quicker though, and I wouldn't be opposed to adding Eder and Scott and getting Kjerstad. That would be three lefty OF with DLC long term, but maybe you sign Soler to an extension for a year and Edwards is a switch.

Fortes, McCann
Arraez, Cooper/Yuli
Westburg (I think he'd be here)
Wendle, Berti
Segura
Kjerstad, DLC
Jazz
Sanchez, Soler

Longer term

_____, Fortes
Arraez, Berry
Westburg
Watson, Amaya
Cappe
Kjerstad, DLC
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Love that longterm lineup in a few years. It is extremely lefty heavy (only Fortes, Westburg, Cappe, DLC, and Amaya are righties with Edwards and Berry a switch), but getting a right handed catcher would balance that out pretty quickly to have 6 righties, 5 lefties, and 2 switches, etc.

Could be great 1 stop shopping and I do think Rogers/Luzardo, Eder, and relievers can get Westburg and Kjerstad who I consider both play now or extremely soon in Kjerstad's case. They'd have to view this the same way as Eder is extremely soon and likely an August 31st call up for postseason eligibility, etc.

[lou]

Reds called up Elly De La Cruz, a top 5-10 prospect in baseball. Basically, we are probably past the anticipated super 2 deadline for 2026 as there is no way the non-contending Reds would call him up just literal days away from where the line historical ends. Unless they are planning to send him down during the ASB to keep playing some games, etc.

Don't throw the beer bottles, but doing the backwards math means 24 days in AAA for Eury to avoid a super 2 status if this Reds math is correct.

With Rogers and Cueto coming back, maybe they send him down for at least 24 days and July 21st (that sets up home starts against Col, Det, and Phi for Eury to open 2nd half) is the forever call back.

For instance, they can do a last start on June 25th against Pittsburgh (that is 4 more starts), send down June 26th, and they could call him up July 21st. Effectively he would have missed "2" (TWO) starts through a 6/7 man rotation accounting for a reset after the ASB as probably no Marlins SP is making the ASG, and that is 24+ days away. It is legitimately 2 starts assuming the other 6 SP are good to go and healthy with the ASG reset.

If Rogers and Cueto look strong and Garret keeps doing this, you have to strongly consider this because we're talking about approximately 10 lost Eury innings over just under a month, for potentially double digit millions in arbitration/extensions if he hits his 80th or more percentile peak. This is a huge financial decision to make for at most 15 innings if I am off a start.

Just saying. Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, and Rogers(SSS) all have lower xFIPs than Eury so this wouldn't be that outrageous performance wise. Don't shoot the messenger and don't be surprised of some upcoming shenanigans if this Reds math is correct. I'm not sure I completely buy this as Westburg needs to be promoted and Baltimore hasn't done that yet, but he is the other one to watch to see when he is called up so we can figure out the days more accurately.


Otherwise, this is generally open season for Amaya, Eder, Nasim, and gang to be promoted as needed. I'm not sure how many service days Edwards got so far, but he should be kept down an extra 15+ just in case he makes it.

[fish16]

Reds called up Elly De La Cruz, a top 5-10 prospect in baseball. Basically, we are probably past the anticipated super 2 deadline for 2026 as there is no way the non-contending Reds would call him up just literal days away from where the line historical ends. Unless they are planning to send him down during the ASB to keep playing some games, etc.

Don't throw the beer bottles, but doing the backwards math means 24 days in AAA for Eury to avoid a super 2 status if this Reds math is correct.

With Rogers and Cueto coming back, maybe they send him down for at least 24 days and July 21st (that sets up home starts against Col, Det, and Phi for Eury to open 2nd half) is the forever call back.

For instance, they can do a last start on June 25th against Pittsburgh (that is 4 more starts), send down June 26th, and they could call him up July 21st. Effectively he would have missed "2" (TWO) starts through a 6/7 man rotation accounting for a reset after the ASB as probably no Marlins SP is making the ASG, and that is 24+ days away. It is legitimately 2 starts assuming the other 6 SP are good to go and healthy with the ASG reset.

If Rogers and Cueto look strong and Garret keeps doing this, you have to strongly consider this because we're talking about approximately 10 lost Eury innings over just under a month, for potentially double digit millions in arbitration/extensions if he hits his 80th or more percentile peak. This is a huge financial decision to make for at most 15 innings if I am off a start.

Just saying. Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, and Rogers(SSS) all have lower xFIPs than Eury so this wouldn't be that outrageous performance wise. Don't shoot the messenger and don't be surprised of some upcoming shenanigans if this Reds math is correct. I'm not sure I completely buy this as Westburg needs to be promoted and Baltimore hasn't done that yet, but he is the other one to watch to see when he is called up so we can figure out the days more accurately.


Otherwise, this is generally open season for Amaya, Eder, Nasim, and gang to be promoted as needed. I'm not sure how many service days Edwards got so far, but he should be kept down an extra 15+ just in case he makes it.

Id guess if they do it, they do it around the all star break so they can have plausible deniability to say they want to keep him on a consistent schedule and they have a full rotation in the big leagues. Hopefully the injury stuff works for them to do that. I hate that they have to consider that and wish mlb would change their stupid service time rules but if it's just 24 days and they have 6 healthy guys without him even in the equation, they kind of have to do it.