2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

This is a very premature and/or incorrect comment missing a lot of context since we have no idea what the Eury plan is and what is going to happen. They could easily send him down for one or two stints + ASB and preserve a super 2 status. It's about 30+ days and frankly, calling him up this early may mean that they are even more gangster then we think to truly maximize starts over an extra month by sending the guy up and down even more than one would expect. They are really hurt right now so this may be some spot desperations until Cueto/Rogers are ready (the likely answer). So it could very well be the opposite where he is up for 6 days and sent back down after 2 starts, etc. Also it's not a service time issue technically because they have already kept him down 17 days to preserve "season 7" (this year), so this is more of a financial decision with the Super2 status where they would be shooting themselves in the foot $10-30m if Eury is a star in arbitration years. Yes that is some semantics. That's over 4 seasons so it wouldn't be killer if they did end up paying him a little quicker in 2026 and $3+m more a year in 27-29 (or way more if he is a Sandy), but at the end of the day an organization that cries poor with limited budgets choosing to spend more money in a probably non-contending year is exactly the kind of organizational mismanagement that needs to be questioned. If we want the Marlins to be efficient with payroll to maximize resources because Bruce won't spend, this isn't how you do it. We can't argue one doesn't need to spend to contend, and then be grossly inefficient on top of that with arguably your top asset not signed to a contract. The Rays would never do something like this (but see below the buyout exception). This effectively could mean, at minimum, the Marlins not having the ability to sign a Segura at some point in the next few years (lets ignore he sucks right now). That's not an insignificant move as compared to roughly getting 6-7 more starts/30+ IP out of Eury right now. A Segura for 2-3 years or 30-35 innings right now? We are valuing 30+ IP right now at $10-30 million dollars or more if Eury is a star?????? That is literally the potential delta here. Further, if the idea is to just extend him ala a Hunter Greene buyout as they just believe in him, or expect him to be so good he will just accrue a year of service time ala Julio or Aldy based on performance (which is a new CBA addition), the timing is of less importance if they can project that. Those are scenarios where yea, even the smart clubs like the Rays would call him up because it doesn't matter if an extension/performance time bonus just happens as that invalidates any of the service day tinkering one can do. Which is why its in the CBA to protect guys like Eury who could become Julio studs quickly.

So big picture, they have certainly accounted for this with an expectation of they are hovering .500 and have some hope right now + upcoming moves when more arms will be healthy and they can move Eury around to account for this. They can always send him down in July if they fall out of contention, etc. + and/or the belief he is so good none of this matters because a buy out is coming and/or he will be the top of his class to get the time from the CBA (this is my hope with the buyout!). But sure, maybe they are just dumb and not thinking about 2026-2029 payroll opportunities. I find that unlikely in a world they spend BS amounts in free agency and Garrett and Cabrera each land exactly on .168 service days where 4 more days on the active roster would have given them 1 less year of organizational control. Garrett is especially breathtaking and one of the worst (from a player's perspective) service time manipulations I have ever seen. Up there with Kris Bryant.

Ultimately, if you remember I wanted Meyer up in the bullpen mid-April 2022 and Cabrera soon after and put them on the Johan Santana development plan of using them in the pen and slowly stretching them out as the season went on. And then to repeat that in 2023. If you think I am hellbent on finances, you're wrong as it would be against financial interests for the sake of trying to win as soon as possible into the 2022 season with Meyer becoming a super 2 to do that (Cabrera became one anyways). It's about winning, but you can't just cast aside the business of this all and a poor owner spending an extra call it $10-30m bucks for 35 innings or whatever this ends up being is nuts. This will be interesting to track, but the idea they are not keenly aware of what they are doing is incredibly wrong IMO and they have a plan here. I'll be happy to eat that crow if they just burn that money through arbitration though. I wouldn't bet on that.

This is not what I said. It is certainly being accounted for, but you base every prediction about when guys will be called up based on service time. It doesn't work that way. Things happen during a major league season circumstances change, there comes a point where the needs of the team now outweigh the needs of the team 6 years from now. That's all I'm saying.

[fish16]

This is not what I said. It is certainly being accounted for, but you base every prediction about when guys will be called up based on service time. It doesn't work that way. Things happen during a major league season circumstances change, there comes a point where the needs of the team now outweigh the needs of the team 6 years from now. That's all I'm saying.

Exactly. It’s 10-30 million over a series of years, and there is probably a better chance he either doesn’t pan out, gets extended before that comes into play, or gets traded before he runs out his clock here anyways. Worrying about that over a series of years instead of trying to win this year is just such overthinking

[Namaste]

Isn’t “overthinking” exactly what you want/expect when you come to a good baseball forum? It’s a lot better than “We bad news bear”

[lou]

This is not what I said. It is certainly being accounted for, but you base every prediction about when guys will be called up based on service time. It doesn't work that way. Things happen during a major league season circumstances change, there comes a point where the needs of the team now outweigh the needs of the team 6 years from now. That's all I'm saying.

For a poor owner whose front office has limited resources, it's a big deal IMO and I do think it works that way. They basically have 3 years from tomorrow to address this whether by some options back down or a buy-out (or sure he sucks), but if we're viewing things in the most simplistic fashion - yes the base answer is just call up these guys in mid-June every year as that is the safest financial thing to do. That should be the bar absent unusual circumstances. This is a desperate move for sure with Rogers/Cueto out and Castano/Smeltzer sucking, so yes we should applaud them at going for it as hell why not. But just remember the worst service time move this franchise ever made was Jose Fernandez. The performance from the player and excitement of the top prospect doesn't change that fact they should have waited 2 weeks with him and they shot themselves in the foot with an unforced error. I think there is very valid commentary that they could be burning $20m for 30-35 IP of 20 year old Eury right now. Hence, we'll see what happens but that's not efficient and likely tipping the scales to the playoffs.

[Nick]

For a poor owner whose front office has limited resources, it's a big deal IMO and I do think it works that way. They basically have 3 years from tomorrow to address this whether by some options back down or a buy-out (or sure he sucks), but if we're viewing things in the most simplistic fashion - yes the base answer is just call up these guys in mid-June every year as that is the safest financial thing to do. That should be the bar absent unusual circumstances. This is a desperate move for sure with Rogers/Cueto out and Castano/Smeltzer sucking, so yes we should applaud them at going for it as hell why not. But just remember the worst service time move this franchise ever made was Jose Fernandez. The performance from the player and excitement of the top prospect doesn't change that fact they should have waited 2 weeks with him and they shot themselves in the foot with an unforced error. I think there is very valid commentary that they could be burning $20m for 30-35 IP of 20 year old Eury right now. Hence, we'll see what happens but that's not efficient and likely tipping the scales to the playoffs.

The worst service time move they ever made did not end up hurting them at all. Great point.

[lou]

Isn’t “overthinking” exactly what you want/expect when you come to a good baseball forum? It’s a lot better than “We bad news bear”

Imagine their hour(s) long meeting about this. This is under-thinking their thought process for sure and they have multiple strategies to shave the days if need be. As well as what the contract projections look like for extensions at various points in time based on performance. A Super 2 status was 128 days last year, so frankly it may be closer to 20-25 days from today and not 30-40 so there is an easy, let's send him down when Cueto/Rogers is back, and then again ASB, and let's capture those 20+ days and we'll still get there. Basically, they are 100% running a service time ledger for "every" team so they have an idea of what the exact day count is likely going to be for all players so they can triangulate this. The bar napkin math is 120-130 days, but they probably can narrow that by a week even years out. As I keep saying, Cabrera and Garrett at 168 service days isn't a mistake, and Puk was 124 days just missing that 128 days Super2 status. Also not a mistake on Oakland's part. I'm not sure why I get pushback here when there have been filed actions (Bryant) about this and the CBA was amended to deflect against this. This is the underthinking analysis and the Marlins are for sure going deep into the trench here with a move like this with a top 10 overall prospect.

[lou]

The worst service time move they ever made did not end up hurting them at all. Great point.

Yea he died so we didn't get to the contract. That's a GREAT defense. Jesus christ.

[Nick]

Yea he died so we didn't get to the contract. That's a GREAT defense. Jesus christ.

Could’ve been his death, could’ve been injury, could’ve been a trade, couldve been many thing that could have made it not matter.

I criticized Loria many times for rushing guys to the big leagues but did it ever truly end up biting us in the ass from a service time sense? I guess maybe you could argue we had to trade the guy earlier than we would have, but that’s about it.

I’m not saying it’s not important, I’m saying you’re putting too much importance on it.

[Nick]

And it's not about overthinking and underthinking, it's about what you value, and what you don't. We all love baseball for the numbers, but there are times when you have to throw numbers out the window. We always go back to the Ugueth Urbina trade way back in the day, by all measure a terrible trade for us. If you look at cumulative WAR, probably one of the worst ones we've ever made. It won us a championship. Now I'm not saying this team is on it's way to a championship with Eury now on the team, but I think it is important in the 6th year of this Ownership to show they want to win. The real way would be to actually spend money, but this another way to show they are committed to winning, getting the best talent on the major league club.

[lou]

Could’ve been his death, could’ve been injury, could’ve been a trade, couldve been many thing that could have made it not matter.

I criticized Loria many times for rushing guys to the big leagues but did it ever truly end up biting us in the ass from a service time sense? I guess maybe you could argue we had to trade the guy earlier than we would have, but that’s about it.

I’m not saying it’s not important, I’m saying you’re putting too much importance on it.

Pablo makes more money than Sandy. The leverage in having that extra control year (which is the Fernandez problem, which is separate from Eury) is enormous for guys 2 versus 3 years from free agency. Which is the delta of the Sandy and Pablo deals. Fernandez was a HUGE failure to not "kris bryant" for two weeks. It's the 1st or 2nd largest player failure in organizational history, the other being why the fuck was Miguel Cabrera not bought out in 2004/2005 for year and years and years (i.e. they then traded the guy before they should have). It was an enormous tactical mistake.

For most franchises I would agree, who cares about call it $20m over a few years if your payroll is $180m a year? Marlins are operating at $90m this season and have had league low payroll since their inception as a franchise. They desperately need those last 2-3 guys and this is something that could prevent that. Can we trust them to develop a bat eventually? I just can't reconcile we need to be smart and sign cheap guys to smart deals and let's not sign the Swansons and Nimmos and Boegarts and Correas, with who cares about Eury being (dramatically) more expensive. These don't add up and are inconsistent. So yea, I think some commentary on this is super fun and lets hope Eury is great like Fernandez, but don't miss the eyes on the prize of having a smart and methodical payroll to operate at these comical budgets. At the end of the day, like said, I bet there is a plan to shave the days needed and/or an extension is on the 2 year horizon.

[Nick]

Pablo makes more money than Sandy. The leverage in having that extra control year (which is the Fernandez problem, which is separate from Eury) is enormous for guys 2 versus 3 years from free agency. Which is the delta of the Sandy and Pablo deals. Fernandez was a HUGE failure to not "kris bryant" for two weeks. It's the 1st or 2nd largest player failure in organizational history, the other being why the fuck was Miguel Cabrera not bought out in 2004/2005 for year and years and years (i.e. they then traded the guy before they should have). It was an enormous tactical mistake.

For most franchises I would agree, who cares about call it $20m over a few years if your payroll is $180m a year? Marlins are operating at $90m this season and have had league low payroll since their inception as a franchise. They desperately need those last 2-3 guys and this is something that could prevent that. Can we trust them to develop a bat eventually? I just can't reconcile we need to be smart and sign cheap guys to smart deals and let's not sign the Swansons and Nimmos and Boegarts and Correas, with who cares about Eury being (dramatically) more expensive. These don't add up and are inconsistent. So yea, I think some commentary on this is super fun and lets hope Eury is great like Fernandez, but don't miss the eyes on the prize of having a smart and methodical payroll to operate at these comical budgets. At the end of the day, like said, I bet there is a plan to shave the days needed and/or an extension is on the 2 year horizon.

To me the payroll isn't even high enough where even if you were perfectly economical with re-signing the best talent on your roster, that you could make it work to have a consistently competitive team with the same guys. The Rays can't even do it. They stay consistently competitive by getting rid of guys, and replacing them with equally talented cheap players. Easier said than done.

[lou]

And it's not about overthinking and underthinking, it's about what you value, and what you don't. We all love baseball for the numbers, but there are times when you have to throw numbers out the window. We always go back to the Ugueth Urbina trade way back in the day, by all measure a terrible trade for us. If you look at cumulative WAR, probably one of the worst ones we've ever made. It won us a championship. Now I'm not saying this team is on it's way to a championship with Eury now on the team, but I think it is important in the 6th year of this Ownership to show they want to win. The real way would be to actually spend money, but this another way to show they are committed to winning, getting the best talent on the major league club.

Didn't that ship sail in March? Not being snippy, but absent the free agent or mega Reynolds trade, that ship sailed? Eury today doesn't move that needle for me. The commitment to winning IMO is keeping everyone cheap as possible with your club controlled talent the next few years and signing Arraez, Jazz, and Luzardo to 5, 6, and 5+option extensions right now. What's going to be fun is he is immediately sent down when Cueto or Rogers is back for 10-15 days, then called back, then sent down to be "kept on schedule" during the ASB, and all of a sudden 25+ days are captured and he won't be a super2.

[lou]

BTW on extensions

Luzardo pacing 3.5+ WAR

Arraez pacing 4.5+ WAR, which probably is at least 3.3+ WAR if he positionally is forced to 1B

Jazz pacing 2.2+ WAR, and he is hitting like a complete asshole and we all know he is better than this. Can a defensive floor in CF (or 2B) be real where he is a floor 2 WAR guy and explosive offense is on top? Basically makes him safe to sign with a volatile bat even if you're just getting a 2+ WAR guy (which is now a $19m a year player in free agency ala Joc, Josh Bell, etc.).


I think you plant the flag here IMO and all three in the SSS of this year are showing they do look worth it. I think everyone was on board to do this in March, but it looks even less risky in May.

[Nick]

Didn't that ship sail in March? Not being snippy, but absent the free agent or mega Reynolds trade, that ship sailed? Eury today doesn't move that needle for me. The commitment to winning IMO is keeping everyone cheap as possible with your club controlled talent the next few years and signing Arraez, Jazz, and Luzardo to 5, 6, and 5+option extensions right now. What's going to be fun is he is immediately sent down when Cueto or Rogers is back for 10-15 days, then called back, then sent down to be "kept on schedule" during the ASB, and all of a sudden 25+ days are captured and he won't be a super2.

Yes, ok so what are they supposed to do sitting at 19-19 in 2nd place in the division? Pack it in? Probably alienate the Arraez, Jazz's and Luzardos on the team? And certainly alienate what few remaining fans there are.

Let's be frank though, he'll need to get sent down no matter what, because he simply has not been built up to be able to pitch in September. They pretty much take him out at 80 pitches every game. There will be a workaround like you say I'm sure, but the risk is him getting him to that point without him going on the IL.

[Nick]

There are also other things at play here, such as Kim Ng keeping her job.

Bruce: "Well Kim, the team went 70-92 this year we're going to have to let you go."

Kim: "But Bruce I maintained that extra year of service time for Eury Perez."

How do you think that's going to go?