2023 Game Thread

[lou]

Yes, ok so what are they supposed to do sitting at 19-19 in 2nd place in the division? Pack it in? Probably alienate the Arraez, Jazz's and Luzardos on the team? And certainly alienate what few remaining fans there are.

Let's be frank though, he'll need to get sent down no matter what, because he simply has not been built up to be able to pitch in September. They pretty much take him out at 80 pitches every game. There will be a workaround like you say I'm sure, but the risk is him getting him to that point without him going on the IL.

I think we're both right here BTW - yes they need to win and "do stuff" but to quote game of thrones baseball historians, service time chicanery is coming.

Can I quib - sign Arraez, Jazz, and Luzardo to NOT alienate them? I'd even throw in Puk if it's reasonable and try and get a free agency year or two. Saves are a recipe for arbitration hearing disasters. Relievers get $7-12m a year in FA right now so why not just extend for 4/$15-20 with a 5th year option of $12-15? That's all it would take based on some recent RP deals. Frankly signing the new guy batting .400, Jazz on a theoretical low but acknowledging the upside, Luzardo as a leap of faith after a really kick ass last 35 starts, and paying a discount rate on Puk's saves now is a huge organizational statement. I do think those obvious 3 and Sandy can all be top 8 players on a contender. Optimistically, Eury becomes a 5th quickly with outside chances Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, and Eder can become them very soon. Which swings back, where's that "Werth" deal and trading the house for "Yelich" trade to get two major pieces (among an assortment of smaller moves to fill out the roster as they likely need more, etc.). They can do it all in the offseason, but that would be a nice boost for the locker room entering the "easy" schedule stretch + Eury's arrival. Add in a trade also. Let's dream.

[lou]

There are also other things at play here, such as Kim Ng keeping her job.

Bruce: "Well Kim, the team went 70-92 this year we're going to have to let you go."

Kim: "But Bruce I maintained that extra year of service time for Eury Perez."

How do you think that's going to go?

If Kim is calling him up solely to save her job, I think that's a reason to fire her as she is responsible for day to day, but also the longterm. A saving your ass move for today to hurt tomorrow is a bad leader in theory. But of course Bruce would have to understand how things work to get that. End of the day, if Kim asked and Bruce said I promise payroll will go up, that's a fix. I'm not holding my breath.

[Nick]

I think we're both right here BTW - yes they need to win and "do stuff" but to quote game of thrones baseball historians, service time chicanery is coming.

Can I quib - sign Arraez, Jazz, and Luzardo to NOT alienate them? I'd even throw in Puk if it's reasonable and try and get a free agency year or two. Saves are a recipe for arbitration hearing disasters. Relievers get $7-12m a year in FA right now so why not just extend for 4/$15-20 with a 5th year option of $12-15? That's all it would take based on some recent RP deals. Frankly signing the new guy batting .400, Jazz on a theoretical low but acknowledging the upside, Luzardo as a leap of faith after a really kick ass last 35 starts, and paying a discount rate on Puk's saves now is a huge organizational statement. I do think those obvious 3 and Sandy can all be top 8 players on a contender. Optimistically, Eury becomes a 5th quickly with outside chances Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, and Eder can become them very soon. Which swings back, where's that "Werth" deal and trading the house for "Yelich" trade to get two major pieces (among an assortment of smaller moves to fill out the roster as they likely need more, etc.). They can do it all in the offseason, but that would be a nice boost for the locker room entering the "easy" schedule stretch + Eury's arrival. Add in a trade also. Let's dream.

You don't have to sell me on this.

[Nick]

If Kim is calling him up solely to save her job, I think that's a reason to fire her as she is responsible for day to day, but also the longterm. A saving your ass move for today to hurt tomorrow is a bad leader in theory. But of course Bruce would have to understand how things work to get that. End of the day, if Kim asked and Bruce said I promise payroll will go up, that's a fix. I'm not holding my breath.

I don't disagree, but I think it would also be naive to think this type of thing doesn't happen in the MLB.

[rmc523]

I totally understand the argument of we should be pulling service time game with everyone that looks to be a long term piece. But frankly, it's nice to see us make a move to bring up a long term piece because we need the guy now to help maintain this team finally having some semblance of success.....success is relatively speaking since we're "just" at .500.....but look at the teams we have coming up, we can start gaining some ground if we beat up on the bad teams like we should.

I'm tired of everything regarding this team always being negative, it's nice to finally have something somewhat positive happening.

[lou]

I don't disagree, but I think it would also be naive to think this type of thing doesn't happen in the MLB.

100%. It could be a reason. I do like the desperation at 19-19 though. They SHOULD be desperate as this is largely a smoke and mirrors win/loss and they are riding that wave so far

[lou]

I totally understand the argument of we should be pulling service time game with everyone that looks to be a long term piece. But frankly, it's nice to see us make a move to bring up a long term piece because we need the guy now to help maintain this team finally having some semblance of success.....success is relatively speaking since we're "just" at .500.....but look at the teams we have coming up, we can start gaining some ground if we beat up on the bad teams like we should.

I'm tired of everything regarding this team always being negative, it's nice to finally have something somewhat positive happening.

I'm not sure it's negative, but we are going to be more pissed a few years down the road if Eury is more expensive and they can't afford a piece, versus "wasting" 35 innings in 2023 to not ultimately contend. You get it but we all won't care about now with the better (god willingly) 2026 team. If he turns into a Cabrera level player that gets him to the playoffs, great. But we know where this is likely going and it's not October.

[Lee Stone]

The expense issue aside, Monteverde was the guy to bring up to the big leagues. He's much more mature than Eury, has had better results against identical competition, has worked deeper into games (I think about an added inning per game) and has given up only a single HR in six games. No reason whatsoever to bring Eury up now.

[Nick]

The expense issue aside, Monteverde was the guy to bring up to the big leagues. He's much more mature than Eury, has had better results against identical competition, has worked deeper into games (I think about an added inning per game) and has given up only a single HR in six games. No reason whatsoever to bring Eury up now.

Good Lord man, get a new obsession. We get it.

[Lee Stone]

Good Lord man, get a new obsession. We get it.

Bullshit aside, do you agree with the reasons or not? Isn't that the point of a forum? Or is it to lob insults?

[Nick]

Bullshit aside, do you agree with the reasons or not? Isn't that the point of a forum? Or is it to lob insults?

I didn't insult you. You know I've been the most excited for Monteverde's success on this board behind you, but throw the ages out the window, throw pedigree out the window, throw velocity out the window, throw 40-man roster status out the window. There are countless reasons that Eury is up instead of Monteverde out the window, throw all those things that lou or fish16 would throw at you out the window. Eury's pitched 106 innings at AA, and faced major league hitting in spring training for the past 2 seasons. Monteverde's pitched 67.2 innings at AA and had no experience facing major league hitting in spring training. Eury is more ready to make the jump. I've actually watched Monteverde pitch this year, and while he's been great, last two outings he's walked 6 in 11 innings, and he's basically fallen apart in 6th in both those games. May 4th 2 walks 2 hits, 1 batter retired, May 10th 2 walks, 1 wild pitch, 1 hit, 1 batter retired. Do you think that sudden lack of command is going to fly in the big leagues when he's throwing 90 MPH? I don't think so. He should be called up to AAA and continue to develop.

[Nick]

Also, a big reason Perez doesn't pitch further into games is they simply don't let him. His last outing he dominated for 6 innings and they took him out at 79 pitches. In Monteverde's last 7 inning outing he threw 102 pitches.

[rmc523]

The expense issue aside, Monteverde was the guy to bring up to the big leagues. He's much more mature than Eury, has had better results against identical competition, has worked deeper into games (I think about an added inning per game) and has given up only a single HR in six games. No reason whatsoever to bring Eury up now.

Do you put names on a wheel and spin it for your "next big thing" takes?

[lou]

The expense issue aside, Monteverde was the guy to bring up to the big leagues. He's much more mature than Eury, has had better results against identical competition, has worked deeper into games (I think about an added inning per game) and has given up only a single HR in six games. No reason whatsoever to bring Eury up now.

I'm going to construe "expense" as roster management as Eury and Monteverde would both be making the minimum so not sure what you mean there(?). But basically, the 40 man positioning with Monteverde really matters so we can't ignore that. He doesn't need to be protected this offseason on the 40 man. Unlike Eury who does. Calling him up loses a player in the offseason. Yea I know, does the 40th man on the team matter? They effectively DFA'd that guy (Villalobos) already and we don't care too much about that move (even if it is annoying). But I'd rather bet on two FV35+/FV40 guys versus 1 to fill that spot when it comes down to it. As Nick said, there are a ton of performance, pedigree, and other reasons not to call him up, but the Marlins have some real organizational depth and the 40 man will be competitive. Especially with some deadline trades + they gotta get a free agent eventually. Yea the team has many holes, but these backend RP (Nardi, Soriano, Simpson, Reynolds) are all interesting, and they have some additional must adds coming (Eder, I. Lewis, Nasim, Mesa Jr., etc.) on top of this. It's going to be a competitive 40 man and yes while there will be space as the bottom 5 guys will likely always be fungible, it's important to keep as many as you can.

Basically, I am hard out on calling up Monteverde, Berry, and Fulton. They need the spots and they aren't difference makers as rookies (which Eury could be). Given we likely are going to have a massive bullpen turnover with Floro, Barnes, Scott, and Okert all gone for payroll reasons (you paying those 4 guys $20m next year as that is what they are going to cost), they need to keep all those relievers so they can test them all out and see what happens. They really - really - need a cheap bullpen with what they have to address offensively. All money needs to go to that IMO. Puk and Chargois may cost $5m combined next year, and the rest can probably be club controlled for cumulatively maybe $6m.

The projection today is probably:

Fortes, _____ (2)
Arraez, _____/Jerar/Johnston (2) < ---- I think it's fair to move Arraez here defensively
Segura, Edwards, I. Lewis (3) <--- Segura too
______, Amaya, Nasim (3)
______, Berti, Groshans (3)
DLC, Sanchez (2)
Jazz, Mesa Jr. (2)
______/Soler, Garcia, ______/Burdick (3)
=20

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Cueto, Meyer, Sixto (6)
______, Chargois, Brazoban, Bender, Enright, Soriano, Reynolds (7)
Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Eder (4)
Puk, Nardi, Simpson (3)
=20


There isn't much to cut here pitching wise and if some of those arms are traded for bats, they can RuleV/cheap FA 1-3 relievers and Monteverde will be there 16 service days into the season to be called up and replace whoever. Frankly, it makes a lot of sense to move two of those big arms (+Fulton) for big bats, and then use Cooper, Soler, Floro, Scott, Okert, and Barnes (plus RuleV) at the deadline assuming they fall out to target many play now RHP relievers to balance out the staff and fill in the 40 man blank lines. Hence, increasing the odds you find that next Anderson, Thompson, Pop, Bender, or dare I say Brazoban who is just awesome and I still can't believe it.


I know I always type these things out and posts are long, but the numbers game is real important here to show why the 40 man is that important when we're talking about advancing low end prospects to the bigs right now. Hence there it is. I'm not ditching anyone above for Monteverde, but the footnote is, that yes the bats need to make sense as obviously they could carry a 21st pitcher if they continue to not address hitting. But I frankly can't imagine radical hitting changing aren't coming. Unless Monteverde has in fact turned into Diet Glavine, there is simply low incentive to call him up IMO. They don't have the space in the longterm plan, and he can fight his way on in 2024. It's just that easy. He keeps this up, he will get his shot Lee.

[lou]

Do you put names on a wheel and spin it for your "next big thing" takes?

Monteverde is doing the work right now, so Lee isn't wrong at pin pointing these guys. The issue how I see it is, latching onto guys that we should move to the Marlins top 25-30 range of prospect land versus top 5 organizational arms. Monteverde is a great story right now, but we should be thinking 3rd bullpen lefty with options not Gallen or Glavine which have been mentioned and just nuts. I think we'll see him next year as an injury replacement and having an army like that is perfect to keep off the 40 man.

I think Lee should be more focused on Nasim - he is STILL walking, the K rate has nominally decreased, and he is slugging just a little more. Nasim also had a .950 OPS vs RHP / .520 OPS vs LHP in the small sample size of this year. And that tracks the splits I can find last year (Beloit) which was a .743 / .636 RHP favoring split. Nasim might be turning into something. He hits even a .675 OPS against RHP at the MLB level with that speed and alleged defense, and they may be in real business. Remember, Amaya is also a platoon split guy and hits lefties even if not great so far this year. We need a much larger sample here, but this is getting a bit interesting that Nasim's bottom hasn't dropped out yet.