2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

I was a huge Chisholm fan a year before the Marlins traded for him. That said, I would have traded any Marlin pitcher other than Gallen to get him ... if I could have.

Marlin running speed home to first (from Baseball Savant based on last year's mean running time in games):

Sierra 3.95 Berti 4.13 Brinson and H Ramirez 4.23 Villar 4.24 Dickerson 4.25 Alfaro 4.32 Cooper 4.39 Anderson 4.40 Joyce 4.47 Rojas 4.52 Diaz 4.53 Cervelli 4.56 Aguilar 4.97. Call him Hustlin' Harold.

[rmc523]

They are going on the 3rd year of 20 games below .500 or more. The biggest problem I have is, it seems they have just let the MLB team flail in the wind....didn't care. Other rebuilds already have solid fanbases. This one has NEVER had that because the franchise was manipulated/micromanaged by previous owners so poorly it resulted in teams that didn't work and always lost more games than they won....that alienates locals....and there are waaaaay more alienated locals here than in most cities.

They chose the wrong path, in my opinion. The should have realized they needed to spend some money upfront to gain the confidence of the locals. They chose not to do that, and I believe it will hurt them in the long run.

People just don't want to hear the truth. I used to sugarcoat and tell friends they are too harsh on the Marlins, but that all changed in 2012, with the last Loria debacle....I feel these guys are falling into the same category so far.....Loria was brash & abrasive when questioned about his team....Jeter has shown his disdain for anyone questioning him, or the direction of the team. The result is the same....they come off very arrogant & it alienates potential customers.

Okay, for now, I've said my peace

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I see both sides of the argument.

On one hand, a rebuild was needed. Loria was like a construction project where you buy a house and it looks great on the outside but the inside is completely empty/gutted. He traded the arms (the Castillos, Paddacks, etc) that would've had us competitive with the stars we had, so there was nothing behind the facade to back it up/support what we had. Any injury killed us, and the lack of arms because of trades led to us signing ugly contracts for pitchers (Chen, though I was ok with that acquisition at the time and nobody could've predicted how horrible he'd be).

On the other hand, like you're looking at it - there's a fanbase component to it. I'm not trying to rehash the "2 pitchers away" argument, but had they gone at it Dodgers-style and accepted financial losses, pumped a huge amount of money into the team, kept it together, and rebuilt over the years underneath that, that could have helped the club's image, showing this group operated differently (they're doing that now, but in a different way, obviously).

The second approach costs a lot of money, and this group doesn't seem like they're overflowing with funds like the Dodgers, so they're trying to do it in a restrained way, so they went with a clean house approach, ship everyone out and start from scratch. Time will tell how it turns out, but the forecast looks promising. In bandwagon Miami, people will show up when they win/win consistently. I totally agree their image is damaged, and the Jeter reset didn't help that, but they're setting it up long term since they couldn't do the Dodgers approach. They obviously weren't able to and determined that while painful, another sell off wouldn't damage things any more than they already were.

Agree or disagree, that's what happened, and all we can do is look forward now. The big question is whether they'll spend when they can. That's why many of us would've liked to have seen a signing this offseason while certain players were available - both to show us they'll spend, and to accelerate that build process.

Yea, I don't agree with you entirely - but next year and especially 2022 I will. Loria REALLY left nothing so I think a two year rebuild was warranted (they should have kept Yelich only), but I feel there should be another major player on the team this year as a show of good faith. i.e., Castellanos, Ozuna, Puig, or the controversial Myers salary dump. That plus the rest of the moves (Villar, Aguilar, Kintzler, Cervelli, Yimi, etc.) shows some commitment. An Anderson buyout on top of that even more so.

Baseball is hard. You have to be really smart with 4-5 years of moves to create a 3-4 year contending window. We're in year 3 of that 7-9 year timetable right now.

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Yes, both the moves were no brainers and you do them every time.

Exactly. If we don't see notable FA additions next offseason/the one after that, it'll be an indication we're in for nothing but a Rays style setup.

The argument for signing a guy or two this year is also because there's not much at any position for the '20-21 offseason (after this 2020 season). You grab guys while they're there, and those deals would overlap with your "big" signings in the '21-22 offseason where there are a lot more big names out there.

[Maddawg]

I see both sides of the argument.

On one hand, a rebuild was needed. Loria was like a construction project where you buy a house and it looks great on the outside but the inside is completely empty/gutted. He traded the arms (the Castillos, Paddacks, etc) that would've had us competitive with the stars we had, so there was nothing behind the facade to back it up/support what we had. Any injury killed us, and the lack of arms because of trades led to us signing ugly contracts for pitchers (Chen, though I was ok with that acquisition at the time and nobody could've predicted how horrible he'd be).

On the other hand, like you're looking at it - there's a fanbase component to it. I'm not trying to rehash the "2 pitchers away" argument, but had they gone at it Dodgers-style and accepted financial losses, pumped a huge amount of money into the team, kept it together, and rebuilt over the years underneath that, that could have helped the club's image, showing this group operated differently (they're doing that now, but in a different way, obviously).

The second approach costs a lot of money, and this group doesn't seem like they're overflowing with funds like the Dodgers, so they're trying to do it in a restrained way, so they went with a clean house approach, ship everyone out and start from scratch. Time will tell how it turns out, but the forecast looks promising. In bandwagon Miami, people will show up when they win/win consistently. I totally agree their image is damaged, and the Jeter reset didn't help that, but they're setting it up long term since they couldn't do the Dodgers approach. They obviously weren't able to and determined that while painful, another sell off wouldn't damage things any more than they already were.

Agree or disagree, that's what happened, and all we can do is look forward now. The big question is whether they'll spend when they can. That's why many of us would've liked to have seen a signing this offseason while certain players were available - both to show us they'll spend, and to accelerate that build process.



Exactly. If we don't see notable FA additions next offseason/the one after that, it'll be an indication we're in for nothing but a Rays style setup.

The argument for signing a guy or two this year is also because there's not much at any position for the '20-21 offseason (after this 2020 season). You grab guys while they're there, and those deals would overlap with your "big" signings in the '21-22 offseason where there are a lot more big names out there.

I want to make it clear, I believe the rebuild was the right thing to do, but I disagree with them coming in a just completely wiping out the team & not replacing them with at least "competant" competitive MLB'ers. That would have restored confidence in the fans that they intend to operate differently. Because right now in the minds of many they are "the same old Marlins". No reason to get involved with them, because the minute you start liking a player he's traded away.

Just look at Anderson. Why wasn't he signed this off-season ? There is no excuse to not have him locked up. And if he's not a core player then WTF have you been doing the last 2 years ? You haven't yet found one long term player to build around ? Tos at least do it for your image & to give fans confidence.

This is why I'm still skeptical of their long-term intentions......and if they didn't have the money, why did they buy it ?

[rmc523]

I want to make it clear, I believe the rebuild was the right thing to do, but I disagree with them coming in a just completely wiping out the team & not replacing them with at least "competant" competitive MLB'ers. That would have restored confidence in the fans that they intend to operate differently. Because right now in the minds of many they are "the same old Marlins". No reason to get involved with them, because the minute you start liking a player he's traded away.

Just look at Anderson. Why wasn't he signed this off-season ? There is no excuse to not have him locked up. And if he's not a core player then WTF have you been doing the last 2 years ? You haven't yet found one long term player to build around ? Tos at least do it for your image & to give fans confidence.

This is why I'm still skeptical of their long-term intentions......and if they didn't have the money, why did they buy it ?

So you're saying they should've simultaneously traded everyone away and then signed a bunch of FAs to replace the entire team?

I'm with you on Anderson - they should've locked him up - even if he's not a Stanton/Yelich level star, he's shown he's a consistent good performer. You need those guys on a team - sign him to a long term/team friendly deal and keep his costs under control for when you put bigger guys around him.

[lou]

They don't lose much leverage with Anderson if they sign him next offseason to note. He'll still be 3 years from free agency and he can't expect a massive arbitration tender. Maybe $4-5 million. Unless he jacks 30 bombs/100 RBI this year.

I think a 5 year buyout, front loaded next 3 years, makes a lot of sense right now. It'll be his age 27-31 seasons and being a FA at 32 ain't so bad. Basically, 4 years starting this year and a 1 year club option for year 5.

I'm not sad if it's the same deal next year for ages 28-32 with the last year guaranteed. It's the same thing practically if he's good at baseball.

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I want to make it clear, I believe the rebuild was the right thing to do, but I disagree with them coming in a just completely wiping out the team & not replacing them with at least "competant" competitive MLB'ers. That would have restored confidence in the fans that they intend to operate differently. Because right now in the minds of many they are "the same old Marlins". No reason to get involved with them, because the minute you start liking a player he's traded away.

They should have signed a few more "Castros" but that's about it. They need to give the kids a chance to succeed. I'm glad Harold Ramirez and Jon Berti got time last year and weren't clogged by a Matt Joyce type. etc.

Moving forward though, that bar changes. As mentioned, they need to start showing stuff next year minimum. Practically, this trade deadline will be interesting.

[Nick]

So you're saying they should've simultaneously traded everyone away and then signed a bunch of FAs to replace the entire team?

I'm with you on Anderson - they should've locked him up - even if he's not a Stanton/Yelich level star, he's shown he's a consistent good performer. You need those guys on a team - sign him to a long term/team friendly deal and keep his costs under control for when you put bigger guys around him.

This, that's an absolutely absurd expectation. Also, there's no way that strategy leads to anything close to a playoff contending team in 2018 and 2019, and if he thinks people are going to show up at the ballpark for a 70-win team as opposed to a 60-win team then he isn't nearly as in-tune with this fan base as he claims to be. So basically you're throwing money in the toilet.

I think we all agree on Anderson, but if they sign him to a contract within the next year then no harm no foul. I'm skeptical on how much they'll spend, it's my biggest concern, we've talked about how they could've gotten more creative with spending money to even further stack the minor league system, and I also would've supported a 3 or 4-year contract for Ozuna or Castellanos, but starting next season is when it's really put up or shut up time because the goal should be to compete in 2021, I don't think we'll quite be ready to do so, but that should be the goal.

[Maddawg]

So you're saying they should've simultaneously traded everyone away and then signed a bunch of FAs to replace the entire team?

Not expensive FA. but noticed I used the word "competant". Take last year. Granderson & McNeil were your 2 free agent signings......both well past washed up, and they were part of the reason we had the worst offense in MLB and had over 20 shutouts. Did they really think those guys would be respectable playes & that fans would come to see them ? You have to have one or the other, and both had neither....they didn't make the team better offensively or make the turnstiles turn....that is what I am talking about. There is cheap & then there is cheaper than Loria cheap.

[Nick]

Not expensive FA. but noticed I used the word "competant". Take last year. Granderson & McNeil were your 2 free agent signings......both well past washed up, and they were part of the reason we had the worst offense in MLB and had over 20 shutouts. Did they really think those guys would be respectable playes & that fans would come to see them ? You have to have one or the other, and both had neither....they didn't make the team better offensively or make the turnstiles turn....that is what I am talking about. There is cheap & then there is cheaper than Loria cheap.

Of course you have no alternative option of who we should've signed instead that would've turned this 57-win team into something respectable, because there is no alternative. We could've signed Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in that off-season and still not been a .500 team.

[rmc523]

Not expensive FA. but noticed I used the word "competant". Take last year. Granderson & McNeil were your 2 free agent signings......both well past washed up, and they were part of the reason we had the worst offense in MLB and had over 20 shutouts. Did they really think those guys would be respectable playes & that fans would come to see them ? You have to have one or the other, and both had neither....they didn't make the team better offensively or make the turnstiles turn....that is what I am talking about. There is cheap & then there is cheaper than Loria cheap.

Who though?

I get we've had a bad track record of signing vets with the intent of trading them at the deadline and then getting little or nothing for them. But who else would we have signed? People weren't coming regardless. Signing Marwin Gonzalez over Granderson doesn't mean fans will suddenly show up.

[Maddawg]

This, that's an absolutely absurd expectation. Also, there's no way that strategy leads to anything close to a playoff contending team in 2018 and 2019, and if he thinks people are going to show up at the ballpark for a 70-win team as opposed to a 60-win team then he isn't nearly as in-tune with this fan base as he claims to be. So basically you're throwing money in the toilet.

Of course you missed my point.....it would show the people of South Florida you care. Did I say playoff or competitive ? No I said "COMPETENT" Just bring in at least one player that is - they seem to have done that this year with signing Joyce & Dickerson....and you say the money is down the toilet ? Not if it pays off later on because people learn to trust the franchise again, and will not have to be convinced lster but will already have some confidence in the team.

Look only 5,000 showed up for Fanfest. Meanwhile that evening at the University of Miami, they had the Annual Alumni Game, and over 3,000 showed up. Both were free events. That a college program can nearly have the same attendance that a multi-hour Marlins event, is indicative of the point I am trying to make.

If the Marlins are talking about "sustainability" what's better than doing things to attract people you wish to become repeat customers to your business ?

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They don't lose much leverage with Anderson if they sign him next offseason to note. He'll still be 3 years from free agency and he can't expect a massive arbitration tender. Maybe $4-5 million. Unless he jacks 30 bombs/100 RBI this year.

I think a 5 year buyout, front loaded next 3 years, makes a lot of sense right now. It'll be his age 27-31 seasons and being a FA at 32 ain't so bad. Basically, 4 years starting this year and a 1 year club option for year 5.

I'm not sad if it's the same deal next year for ages 28-32 with the last year guaranteed. It's the same thing practically if he's good at baseball.

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They should have signed a few more "Castros" but that's about it. They need to give the kids a chance to succeed. I'm glad Harold Ramirez and Jon Berti got time last year and weren't clogged by a Matt Joyce type. etc.

Moving forward though, that bar changes. As mentioned, they need to start showing stuff next year minimum. Practically, this trade deadline will be interesting.

I think it will be too. VERY interesting.....we all want them to succeed, but the route they are taking I firmly believe is the harder one and it will take them longer to get the fans back, and get that "sustainability" somewhat at the box office. I just think it's foolish to have wasted ALL of the goodwill that you could have had, The trades were the trades, but a little forward-thinking should have been applied here in trying to build the franchise. I still think they thought just the absence of Loria was going to be enough.

[Nick]

Of course you missed my point.....it would show the people of South Florida you care. Did I say playoff or competitive ? No I said "COMPETENT" Just bring in at least one player that is - they seem to have done that this year with signing Joyce & Dickerson....and you say the money is down the toilet ? Not if it pays off later on because people learn to trust the franchise again, and will not have to be convinced lster but will already have some confidence in the team.

Look only 5,000 showed up for Fanfest. Meanwhile that evening at the University of Miami, they had the Annual Alumni Game, and over 3,000 showed up. Both were free events. That a college program can nearly have the same attendance that a multi-hour Marlins event, is indicative of the point I am trying to make.

If the Marlins are talking about "sustainability" what's better than doing things to attract people you wish to become repeat customers to your business ?

Again, who would you have signed? About the best you're going to do if you're not signing a star player is guys that may give you 3 maybe 4 more wins than what we got with Granderson and Walker. Do you really think 3 or 4 more wins would have moved the needle at all with the South Florida fan base? If you do, you're out of you're freaking mind.

As far as the signings this year go. I do think Matt Joyce is throwing money in the toilet. Best case scenario is he is gone by the trade deadline and lands us a prospect that tops out as bench player at best, much like the Maybin-Bryson Brigman deal. Dickerson was a good signing, though. He's a legit middle of the order bat who could either really land some quality prospects or heck maybe you even keep him around once the prospects are ready for quality depth purposes.

[Maddawg]

Of course you have no alternative option of who we should've signed instead that would've turned this 57-win team into something respectable, because there is no alternative. We could've signed Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in that off-season and still not been a .500 team.

Finding the alternatives is the Marlins job. It's their business....but right now they are in for another year under 1 million in attendance, and some of that lies on their own shoulders. Hopefully they start spending money next year

[Maddawg]

Again, who would you have signed? About the best you're going to do if you're not signing a star player is guys that may give you 3 maybe 4 more wins than what we got with Granderson and Walker. Do you really think 3 or 4 more wins would have moved the needle at all with the South Florida fan base? If you do, you're out of you're freaking mind.

As far as the signings this year go. I do think Matt Joyce is throwing money in the toilet. Best case scenario is he is gone by the trade deadline and lands us a prospect that tops out as bench player at best, much like the Maybin-Bryson Brigman deal. Dickerson was a good signing, though. He's a legit middle of the order bat who could either really land some quality prospects or heck maybe you even keep him around once the prospects are ready for quality depth purposes.

But see that's it, your (potential) fans see that hesitation in making a committment too. They then dismiss or make the Marlins a "backburner" option for their entertainment. You've done nothing so far to have that pot brought to the front-burner....signing BA would get you halfway to the front.
That's why they should have had a better plan. But it seems to me Jeter thinks he knows it all, and said scorch the Earth....people will come because I'm running th team, and a lot of free agents will sign with us because I am Derek Jeter. Remember he had had his ass kissed for years in NY....no one dared criticize him....he was the "Golden Boy" I think he found out really quick that his name didn't have the chache he thought it did, and players want to get paid....

[fish16]

This, that's an absolutely absurd expectation. Also, there's no way that strategy leads to anything close to a playoff contending team in 2018 and 2019, and if he thinks people are going to show up at the ballpark for a 70-win team as opposed to a 60-win team then he isn't nearly as in-tune with this fan base as he claims to be. So basically you're throwing money in the toilet.

I think we all agree on Anderson, but if they sign him to a contract within the next year then no harm no foul. I'm skeptical on how much they'll spend, it's my biggest concern, we've talked about how they could've gotten more creative with spending money to even further stack the minor league system, and I also would've supported a 3 or 4-year contract for Ozuna or Castellanos, but starting next season is when it's really put up or shut up time because the goal should be to compete in 2021, I don't think we'll quite be ready to do so, but that should be the goal.

Exactly this. He’s suggesting a half ass shitty tank rather than a full in balls to the wall tank that is the way any team should rebuild. He acts like he understands the fan base but can’t realize how ridiculous it sounds that he thinks fans would hve come out to watch a team win 75 games without a full fledged effort to rebuild. It’s beyond apparent he doesn’t actually understand the fan base in the slightest

[Namaste]

Fangraphs projects the Marlins to win the least amount of games in the National League

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds