2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Erick]

If Betances returns to form, he’d have plenty of value at the trade deadline. Do we really care about $10 million in 2020? Don’t we have like a $10 million payroll right now anyway?

[Lee Stone]

Alex Vesia was listed at #29 in the Prospects Live ranking of our prospects. Of course, that's ridiculous. He's virtually certain to make a big impact very soon - he improved with every promotion last season. Who was the last really good lefty in the Marlin pen?

I really like what I read here on Yimi Garcia: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-intr...f-yimi-garcia/

[Erick]

Alex Vesia was listed at #29 in the Prospects Live ranking of our prospects. Of course, that's ridiculous. He's virtually certain to make a big impact very soon - he improved with every promotion last season. Who was the last really good lefty in the Marlin pen?

I really like what I read here on Yimi Garcia: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-intr...f-yimi-garcia/

You do realize that Alex Vesia is a 23-year old reliever in AA right?

[Nick]

If a pitcher who is exclusively a reliever shows up in a top 30 list that means they are highly thought of. Especially since we have a better than average system right now.

[Lee Stone]

You do realize that Alex Vesia is a 23-year old reliever in AA right?

Yes. And I note that of all pitchers at every age and at all levels, Vesia pitched the most effectively.

[Namaste]

and he also wants to play for a contender in all likelihood.

Based on what?

Is there some master list of players that don’t want to play for contenders?

[Erick]

If a pitcher who is exclusively a reliever shows up in a top 30 list that means they are highly thought of. Especially since we have a better than average system right now.

Exactly

[lou]

If Betances returns to form, he’d have plenty of value at the trade deadline. Do we really care about $10 million in 2020? Don’t we have like a $10 million payroll right now anyway?

They should be using that payroll on longterm assets, like signing Castellanos/Ozuna for 4 years or absorbing a bad contract for prospects.

If it's Betances or nothing, sure. But there are better ways to spend that money right now.

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I really like what I read here on Yimi Garcia: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-intr...f-yimi-garcia/

A top 5 team in baseball released him because they didn't want to pay him $1 million

[fish16]

Based on what?

Is there some master list of players that don’t want to play for contenders?

Based on the fact that he will get a closing job opportunity somewhere and he can find himself getting a bigger payday after a lost year last year by pitching on a more high profile team. We will be stuck with the second tier of relievers. This is how the reliever market works every single year. Thanks for yet another post where you don’t actually say a single fucking thing though

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Does anyone actually know what kind of stuff vesia has? Cause there are always relievers who put up great numbers in the minors but their major league projectability depends on what kind of velocity and stuff he has

[lou]

Based on the fact that he will get a closing job opportunity somewhere and he can find himself getting a bigger payday after a lost year last year by pitching on a more high profile team. We will be stuck with the second tier of relievers. This is how the reliever market works every single year. Thanks for yet another post where you don’t actually say a single fucking thing though

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Does anyone actually know what kind of stuff vesia has? Cause there are always relievers who put up great numbers in the minors but their major league projectability depends on what kind of velocity and stuff he has

The prospect write up Nick found has this:

Vesia’s bread and butter is his riding fastball, a pitch that sits 92-95 and has been clocked as high as 98 from the left side. He’s worked on his changeup, a pitch he missed arm side and high in 2018, but learned to get on top of in 2019 while maintaining his arm speed. It tunnels well with his fastball and fools hitters when it dives right at the end. Those two serve as his go-to pitches, but he told me he’s committed to working on improving his slider more, an offering he threw more in the AFL to get some reps.

He's going to need to keep up that change-up deception if he doesn't get an average slider, but he has a ton of time. Unless he's unbelievable, I can't see him getting on the 40 man until next year as he will cost them protection on someone else. The numbers are really getting daunting with all the good news prospects coming.

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/...p-30-prospects

[Nick]

I watched a game where Vesia pitched in AA and he was just blowing fastballs by hitters almost exclusively. Think he struck out the side in his inning.

[Erick]

Sounds like Colin Poche

[tjfla]

Betances is seeking 1 year in the $10 million range supposedly. Why are we not involved in the rumors?

They were at the start but his people told teams he wants to stay in the Northeast. Philly/NY teams

Cishek is most likely still. They like Hudson but he prefers to play for a contender

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As for LH RP

Reason they dont jump on FA is because they like Jarlin,Quijada in ML. Still have a decision with Conley and prolly will have Moran/Dylan Lee/Castano in AAA with Vesia waiting in AA

Plus they have signed a few milb LH RP options. Dont forget no more LOOGY anymore

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Big issue we are having on the OF/RP and even SP market is guys are waiting till the contenders make their decisions before responding to us. Most of them wanna go play for a St Louis/Philly/LAA for about the same year/price as we are offering. Makes sense why sign with Miami and get traded at deadline or next winter to someplace u dont wanna go when u can just pick where u want and get around same cash

Prices are actually coming down(St Louis just sign Kim for 2/8+ anc Cincy got Miley at 2/15 with option) Miami would pay both of that in a second

Longer that FA market drags the better it is for us

We are looking at this
RP-1 yr/4-5 mil or 1 yr+ option
OF-1 yr+ option or 2/15
SP 1 yr+ option or 2/14

We would love the 1yr+ option on ALL FA

[lou]

So they’ll spend $20 million on 3 players who are expiring assets and may turn into a 25-35th best player in the system at the deadline?

How about spend $16+ on a longterm option (Castellanos, Ozuna, Puig) or major salary dump for better prospects (Myers) and sign two $2 million veterans who want playing time.

[Lee Stone]

J Sanchez, JJ Bleday, and M Harrison. Future Marlin OF or collective misfire?

It's impossible to definitively project the future, but when you flip off the rose-colored glasses, you have to be concerned.

J Sanchez was the sell-high prospect that the Rays were looking to move last season. He still enjoyed a high (though dated) prospect rating but showed some real vulnerability once he reached the higher levels of the minors. The Rays saw Josh Lowe as the brighter prospect with a more projectable five-tool set. As Marlin fans, we would be feeling much better if Lowe had been our man. I'm not feeling great (or even good) about Jesus.

Let's be honest regarding Bleday. Instead of flashing phenom ability last season, which a top three prospect should, he was Jhonny Santos without the speed. Santos (who is the same age as Bleday) is no longer even with the Marlins. While he won't fall completely off the top 100 chart for 2020, that's only because of the lingering high draft pick effect. I'm sure most feel differently, but I would trade him today if another team with a lingering imagination could be found. Let's make it real. If we had CJ Abrams, we would be absolutely aglow.

Monte, Monte, Monte. I had super high hopes. Lest we forget, it was the prodigous power potential that stood out with early Monte. Coupled with speed and the great arm, he had star written all over him (in my eyes). Then, to combat an unacceptable whiff rate, he abandoned the leg kick and started hitting with the upper body only. The power disappeared and does not appear to be returning at this point. The whiffs are still there. I have read suggestions that he go back to the leg kick and at least recapture the power. By the end of his short stay in the Puerto Rican Winter league, Criollos de Cagua was batting him 8th. Not good. He's Keon Broxton, I fear.

What to do? Hope that the young starters pitch well enough to become excellent trade pieces so we can go find a future OF. I feel good enough about Cabrera, Sanchez, Mejia, Guzman, Rogers, Garrett and Neidert for 2021 that all of the current rotation could be moved for the right position players.