2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

Not converting starters to relievers per se, but giving most of your staff a regular routine, planned rest. Most any pitcher prefers a starting role for that very reason. The Marlins unusual depth of quality starters is what would make this possible. The new three batter rule for relief pitchers is another factor.

How about this Lee (also not a three batter rule, or they have to end an inning):

(1) Veteran Ace (because they have payroll to do this as soon as next year and easily 2022). This is ideally 190-210 innings.

(2) Sixto, (3) Rogers (Sixto is smaller and may have some stamina issues even if he is going a few times through order. I like the idea of him max effort over 4-5 innings. Rogers has some RP risk so the same thing, have him be max effort over 3+ innings for cumulatively 3+ times through the order. I’d use an opener with them to shield Sixto through top hitters one time in hopes he throws to a few extra guys. Stanek is perfect for this. This can happen in August). This is probably 150 innings for Sixto, 125+ for Rogers, and Stanek is a normal 60+ inning reliever but opens once a week for these guys.

(4) Sandy (effectively your 3rd SP with upside. He has the frame and pitches to succeed here over 190+ innings)

(5) Cabrera (effectively your 4th SP. He has the larger frame than Sixto so may be able to pitch a little deeper without fatigue/performance effects. I’d assume this is a summer 2021 move at earliest). This is at least 170-190 IP.

(6) Caleb, (7) Pablo/Neidert (Caleb seems to look deadly when healthy 1.5-2 times through lineup. Let the next best right hander win the other half of the job. Can swap Garrett for Caleb which actually keeps payroll down if that happens). This is probably 110+ innings for each slot.

Lastly, the bullpen expectation for me here would be, Sixto, Rogers, Caleb, and Pablo/Neidert would occasionally throw a reliever inning 3 days after their bulk reliever start day, so they are basically an extra 2-3 appearances/2-3+ innings a week collectively from those 4. Let’s call it another 50 innings a year collectively.

So that’s 7 SP/Bulk relievers and approximately 1,100 innings. Leaving 6 actual relievers averaging 58+ innings a year which seems about right.

High leverage (I reject calling anyone closers anymore) - Guzman, Vesia

Normal relievers - Brigham, TBD righty (Holloway/Roberson), TBD lefty (Don’t have this yet, maybe Caleb/Rogers and Garrett replaces one of two above).

Lone long reliever for shellings/mop up - Yamamoto/Sharp/Hernandez

They will need at least 3 guys with options to rotate around the bullpen in case anyone gets tired but that’s a low issue to me as its the 11-12-13 pitchers on the staff.

If there are injuries, you can just stretch out one of the bulk guys and replace with a trickle up

[Lee Stone]

Lou, I'm just weary of the way Mattingly handles his pen. He tries to label guys and pigeon hole their use. It's old school boring and more importantly ineffective ... our pen performance has been awful. That's why I'd like to see the Marlins break that mold and use the best pitchers to their best effect.

Note: ZiPS was surprisingly fond of Daniel Castano.

[lou]

Lou, I'm just weary of the way Mattingly handles his pen. He tries to label guys and pigeon hole their use. It's old school boring and more importantly ineffective ... our pen performance has been awful. That's why I'd like to see the Marlins break that mold and use the best pitchers to their best effect.

Note: ZiPS was surprisingly fond of Daniel Castano.

I am not a Mattingly fan so I don't disagree with you. They also are definitely NOT doing what I typed above, it was a thought experience of what a realistic/reasonable transition might look like. I don't think we'll ever see purely a RP staff as suggested before as, (1) good pitchers have to throw as much as they can handle and (2) you need the chunk innings to let guys rest a day or two. You can really burn a staff with two bad games back to back so you have to break it up with traditional starters to an extent.

In connection with # 1, I think the days of the 200-225 IP pitcher are over. The aces are probably going 190 innings now, unless you're a true superstar like Cole/DeGrom/Max. It seems like a nominal decline in innings, but if you think about it, that's 1/2 a season of a reliever so it's actually a monumental shift if this happens to 1-3 guys on every pitching staff. etc, etc. It's why the 13 man staff happened literally within the last 2 years. It had been 12 for decades.

Where I disagree with you is, the Marlins breaking the mold? That mold has already been broken with Tampa the shining star of the transition. Other staffs - even the Yankees - rely heavily on reliever usage, even if they have a few aces. The Marlins are behind the curve right now, so they need to adapt. I honestly am optimistic here as I think they just have low depth and they need to see what they have by throwing various guys, but I suspect things will be very different in 2 years and they'll be throwing guys in waves like everyone else.

Look at Tampa:

Snell
Morton
Yarborough (141 IP/28 G)/Chirinos(133 IP/26 G)
Glasnow
McKay/Richards (135 IP/30 G)

That is "perfect" to me (also to note, Beeks is the perfect "long reliever" when anyone has an off day, 104 IP/33 G, and Brent Honeywell is coming back which is going to kick likely Richards or Chirinos to the bullpen and that's just beyond sick)

This is the mold. I'm not exactly sure where all the Marlins guys are going to land on this hypothetical, but I think what I typed above is a good start for now. They have the bodies with upside, and free agency money, to put something awesome together on paper. We'll see if the guys pan out.

[Lee Stone]

This is interesting, as well as scary:

https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/rate-stats/

When you see how important this graph of K% and W% is in predicting success for hitters, and compare it to those percentages of Marlin hitters last season, it's easy to see how we lost over a hundred games. Looking ahead, Chisholm, Harrison, J Sanchez, I Diaz are in serious trouble without major changes that are apparently very difficult to make.

Note: As you point out, Tampa Bay really has it's shit together.

[Nick]

BB*

[lou]

Note: As you point out, Tampa Bay really has it's shit together.

Yep. They just traded a (good) reliever for 3 years of Margot, who is an elite lefty killer with his defense. They are just awesome. He's perfect for them.

I think this ends the whole "Myers" thing. He is locked into 500+ PA with San Diego now. I presume they couldn't trade him, so they went with Margot instead.

[lou]

Actually, looking at Rays depth chart, they have a position problem:

Zunino, Perez
Choi, Martinez(DH)
Lowe, Wendle
Adames
Diaz
Renfroe, Tsutsugo
Kiermaier, Margot
Meadows

Lowe and Martinez can pop out into the OF for the 5th/6th options, so they really should trade Renfroe for an infield option. They have an alright one with Robertson internally.

This seems like an ideal spot to move Rojas for Renfroe and Robertson (among other prospects shot around). Rojas is beyond perfect for them and Renfroe is a perfect right handed bashing OF to compliment the future lefty squad. He's a super 2, but who cares with 4 years of control.

Villar at SS, Renfroe dedicated in RF is interesting to me.

[Erick]

Actually, looking at Rays depth chart, they have a position problem:

Zunino, Perez
Choi, Martinez(DH)
Lowe, Wendle
Adames
Diaz
Renfroe, Tsutsugo
Kiermaier, Margot
Meadows

Lowe and Martinez can pop out into the OF for the 5th/6th options, so they really should trade Renfroe for an infield option. They have an alright one with Robertson internally.

This seems like an ideal spot to move Rojas for Renfroe and Robertson (among other prospects shot around). Rojas is beyond perfect for them and Renfroe is a perfect right handed bashing OF to compliment the future lefty squad. He's a super 2, but who cares with 4 years of control.

Villar at SS, Renfroe dedicated in RF is interesting to me.

I think they’d probably rather trade Kiermaier.

[tjfla]

Tampa knows how to do 3 things right

Draft BPA in draft and sign them
Sign High Ranked guys in IFA
Trade guys at highest point no matter what

If they would move to Montreal/Charlotte/Vegas they would be dangerous but in TB they are just some team in the AL East

- - - - - - - - - -

Pedro Leon to HOUSTON for 4 million on July 2

Almost all of the seven-figure talents in the 2020 signing class have already committed to other clubs and Houston has most of its signing pool available, allowing it to pay a high price for Leon. He is eligible to sign now as part of a team's 2019 class, but most of the money in teams' bonus pools has already been spent, so it was expected he'd wait until the pools reset for the 2020 class.

Many top players will verbally commit to deals with clubs as much as three years before they are eligible to sign, and often all of the top-tier players are locked up by 18 months before signing day. The wild cards are Cuban players who defect and enter the market late, along with players who emerge later in the process.

Cuban right-hander Norge Vera is another prospect who worked out for clubs this week and he'll likely wait until the 2020 signing period to sign. Cuban shortstop Yiddi Cappe also hit the market when most of the 2019 bonus money was spent and has long been rumored to sign with the Marlins for a multimillion-dollar bonus in July. Cuban outfielder/left-handed pitcher Oscar Colas is another Cuban player of note who defected recently, but he hasn't scheduled a workout or been cleared to sign as of yet.

- - - - - - - - - -

We have Cappe for 3.5 Million and Miami likes Vera ALOT but have to wait till July 2 to get more cash which is why u will likely see guys like Urena(if still around),Conley,Matt Joyce,Cervelli,minor leaguers dealt after then otherwise its 2019 cash

They like a few Cubans actually so u could start seeing a few signings coming(cheaper types like LY with Bargallo and Gonzalez) as they still have some cash this year

If anyone has IG this is Cappe page(All decked out in Marlins gear)

https://www.instagram.com/yidi_cappe/

Norge Vera is OFF the market. CWS got a commit for 2020 at 1.5 million

- - - - - - - - - -

"New Rotation"

Caleb
Sandy
Pablo
Urena
Yamamoto

Was mentioned yesterday that Urena is in the rotation after months of saying pen only.I still think they end up trading him and Elieser gets the SP spot but they havent been able to get what they want for him yet

Trade him to Minnesota for Graterol HAHAHA

[Lee Stone]

No doubt TB would love to deal Kiermaier. It's a bad contract with $10M, $11.5M and $12M still on the books. Even the Rays screw up sometimes ... and that contract is an example. His defense still keeps his head above water from a WAR perspective, but even that will likely fade pretty quickly. He seems pretty immovable to me. Of course, even the Marlins could absorb that contract if the Rays added Vidal Brujan to the package. Miguel Rojas for Keirmaier and Brujan ... works for me.

[lou]

I think they’d probably rather trade Kiermaier.

They'd only have 1 true CF on the roster then with Margot, and KK makes 3/$33 so that's going to be difficult to move even if he is still a transcendental defender and very useful. Arozarena is more of a corner guy as for their AAA injury callup.

I'm not sure what their plan is, but Renfroe or Martinez seem like easy move outs for an infield option.

You know what Tampa should really do, call for Villar with Renfroe. That will max them the fuck out this year.

Renfroe is a career .926 OPS vs LHP which is ideal for the Marlins. He has a lot of untapped potential too - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/lets-t...gle-generally/. He's going to make probably 4/$20-24 in arbitration which is fine with what is coming.

Doing their surplus value, the Marlins would need to chip in something as 4 years of Renfroe is worth more than 1 year of Villar. This is probably along the lines of adding Burdick/Burgos and Zach Wolf (i.e., lower level prospects 2 years off 40 man).

I'd do this in a second:

Renfroe
Villar, Burdick/Burgos, Wolf/outside top 40 organizational prospect pitcher

- - - - - - - - - -

No doubt TB would love to deal Kiermaier. It's a bad contract with $10M, $11.5M and $12M still on the books. Even the Rays screw up sometimes ... and that contract is an example. His defense still keeps his head above water from a WAR perspective, but even that will likely fade pretty quickly. He seems pretty immovable to me. Of course, even the Marlins could absorb that contract if the Rays added Vidal Brujan to the package. Miguel Rojas for Keirmaier and Brujan ... works for me.

Kiermaier has a positive surplus value with the defense. He isn't a negative asset like Myers or Price.

Rojas for KK and Brujan is laughable. That's the Rays giving the Marlins like $35 million in value.

- - - - - - - - - -

Tampa knows how to do 3 things right

Draft BPA in draft and sign them
Sign High Ranked guys in IFA
Trade guys at highest point no matter what

If they would move to Montreal/Charlotte/Vegas they would be dangerous but in TB they are just some team in the AL East

Tampa is probably like one of 10 teams that can win the world series this year and they are set up to be crushing for a decade. I can't agree with that.

[Lee Stone]

Rojas for KK and Brujan is laughable. That's the Rays giving the Marlins like $35 million in value.

Of course it is. I was joking. Brujan is pretty much untouchable.

Note: Tyler Heineman may get a great opportunity to shine! An injury to Posey's planned backup puts him on the cusp of opportunity to make the Giants roster. From MLB.com: "Heineman, a switch-hitter, could be the new front-runner after joining the organization on a Minor League deal last month. The 28-year-old batted .336 with a .990 OPS and 13 home runs over 73 games at the Triple-A level last year. He made his Major League debut with the Marlins in September and went 3-for-11 over five games."

And here's an oddity of consistency that I stumbled upon. Over 8 seasons in the minor leagues, Jorge Alfaro had a line of .262 BA, .321 OBP, .427 SP, and .748 OPS. Over 4 seasons in the majors, those numbers are .266, .320, .423 and .743! The ultimate consistency. (Then again, I checked Brian Anderson's cumulative line from 4 years in the minors and 3 years in the majors and they are close to identical as well. If Lewis Brinson had been able to pull off that trick, he and the Marlins would have been in business.)

[Erick]

Rojas for KK and Brujan is laughable. That's the Rays giving the Marlins like $35 million in value.

Of course it is. I was joking. Brujan is pretty much untouchable.

Note: Tyler Heineman may get a great opportunity to shine! An injury to Posey's planned backup puts him on the cusp of opportunity to make the Giants roster. And here's an oddity of consistency that I stumbled upon. Over 8 seasons in the minor leagues, Jorge Alfaro had a line of .262 BA, .321 OBP, .427 SP, and .748 OPS. Over 4 season in the majors, those numbers are .266, .320, .423 and .743! The ultimate consistency.

You are one of a kind.

[Erick]

The Dodgers-Angels deal was called off.

Any chance we can get in on Joc and Stripling? I think that’d be nice.

[sports24/7]

The Dodgers-Angels deal was called off.

Any chance we can get in on Joc and Stripling? I think that’d be nice.

I was thinking the same thing.