2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

Take Ozuna out as option with the QO its 99.9999% we will pass on him.

Looking at vet bat,Romo and a SP like Roark/Pineda in 2021. 2022 u could have Avisail Garcia at like 6 million(I think he gets 2/13-15 mill) but 2022 I dont expect any of the FA we sign now to be here-maybe Didi or Castellanos but guys this offseason are stop gaps

I wouldn't be surprised IF Garrett or Rogers are readyas SP in 2022 if Caleb is dealt. Far off still but possible. Also in 2022 u could have the #3 pick ready(SP-Hancock,Ginn,Wilcox/3B-Martin/1B-Tork could be ready sometime during year)

It shouldn't though and they are dumb if they think a draft pick that won't help for 5 years means anything.

Spending $15 million on Avisail is straight up wasted money that does not help 2022. They should sign Ozuna/Castellanos for 4 years and front load the deal. Use the payroll to help the future.

Spending $25 million in payroll on Avisail, Roark, Romo, and a Neil Walker or two gets you 4 wins in 2020 and jack and shit for 2022. That's a mind boggling waste of resources when you can use payroll as an asset.

This isn't hard at all.

[sports24/7]

Not wanting to give up a draft pick that has, what, a 20% chance (if that) at becoming anything worthwhile for a proven commodity is so silly for a team lacking proven commodities.

[Nick]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-marlins/payroll/

We've gone over this so many times, but I still feel like I don't 100% understand Wei-Yin Chen's contract. Are we paying him $36 million this year?

[lou]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-marlins/payroll/

We've gone over this so many times, but I still feel like I don't 100% understand Wei-Yin Chen's contract. Are we paying him $36 million this year?

No.

Wei-Yin Chen lhp
5 years/$80M (2016-20), plus 2021 option
$13M signing bonus ($5M paid 11/30/17, $8M paid 6/30/18)
16:$6M, 17:$9M, 18:$10M player option, 19:$20M player option, 20:$22M player option, 21:$16M conditional player option
HOWEVER - $64.5M in 2016-21 salaries is deferred without interest (16:$3M, 17:$4.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$16M, 20:$17M , 21:$16M).
[Cot's also has other numbers that don't add up, so I'm stick with this above. I think there are fluctuating salaries/bonuses on a schedule but we can stick to the annual bottom line]

So let's break this down to get to $80 million:
1 - Signing Bonus - $13m
2 - Deferred Money $64.5m on schedule above
3 - There is $2.5 million missing. My guess is marlins apportioned this as MLB minimum salary 2016-2020 so "something" is on the books those years and that doesn't impact the deferred scheme. For the sake of averaging this out, I'm going to say he got $400k in 16 and 17, $500k in 18, and $600k in 19 and going to in 20
=$80 million

2016 - $3.4 million ($3 million deferred; $400k "minimum")
2017 - $9.9 million ($5 million signing bonus; $4.5 deferred; $400k "minimum")
2018 - $16.5 million ($8 million signing bonus; $8 million deferred money; $500k "minimum")
2019 - $16.6 million ($16 million deferred; $600k "minimum")
2020 - $17.6 million ($17 million deferred; $600k "minimum")
2021 - $16 million ($16 million deferred. Loria sucks)
=$80

I feel very strongly I am close here. Those are the actual cash payouts, so he is approx. $17.6 this year and $16 next year.

Luxury tax calculations are different, so that would be based on $22 million figure for 2020, but that doesn't matter as they are nowhere close.

Two more years of this.

[Nick]

The missing $2.5 million is what was f'ing me up. I couldn't get any combination to come out to $80 million.

[rmc523]

So Chen is on the books in 2021 regardless of the option vesting then?

I was thinking this would be the last year of him on the books.

[lou]

The missing $2.5 million is what was f'ing me up. I couldn't get any combination to come out to $80 million.

I agree. There could be more clarity.

It has to be a calculation of MLB minimum salaries. That is too convenient of a number over 5 seasons. My guess is, MLB says you can't "defer" everything, so they just plugged in the minimum salary for the length of contract, and paid the rest as bonuses/deferred.

I'm pretty confident I am right here. Assuming Cot's schedule is correct.

- - - - - - - - - -

So Chen is on the books in 2021 regardless of the option vesting then?

I was thinking this would be the last year of him on the books.

He is 100% on the books next year for $16 million in deferred salary. But that is the end of it. Loria really hedged years 1 and 2 of the deal.

WHICH IS WHY THE MARLINS NEED TO DO THE OPPOSITE WITH OZUNA/CASTELLANOS AND ANDERSON BUY OUT AND PAY THEM ON THE FRONT END. I'M NOT YELLING AT YOU, CAPS FOR EMPHASIS AS HOW IS THIS NOT A THING.

[Nick]

No.

Wei-Yin Chen lhp
5 years/$80M (2016-20), plus 2021 option
$13M signing bonus ($5M paid 11/30/17, $8M paid 6/30/18)
16:$6M, 17:$9M, 18:$10M player option, 19:$20M player option, 20:$22M player option, 21:$16M conditional player option
HOWEVER - $64.5M in 2016-21 salaries is deferred without interest (16:$3M, 17:$4.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$16M, 20:$17M , 21:$16M).
[Cot's also has other numbers that don't add up, so I'm stick with this above. I think there are fluctuating salaries/bonuses on a schedule but we can stick to the annual bottom line]

So let's break this down to get to $80 million:
1 - Signing Bonus - $13m
2 - Deferred Money $64.5m on schedule above
3 - There is $2.5 million missing. My guess is marlins apportioned this as MLB minimum salary 2016-2020 so "something" is on the books those years and that doesn't impact the deferred scheme. For the sake of averaging this out, I'm going to say he got $400k in 16 and 17, $500k in 18, and $600k in 19 and going to in 20
=$80 million

2016 - $3.4 million ($3 million deferred; $400k "minimum")
2017 - $9.9 million ($5 million signing bonus; $4.5 deferred; $400k "minimum")
2018 - $16.5 million ($8 million signing bonus; $8 million deferred money; $500k "minimum")
2019 - $16.6 million ($16 million deferred; $600k "minimum")
2020 - $17.6 million ($17 million deferred; $600k "minimum")
2021 - $16 million ($16 million deferred. Loria sucks)
=$80

I feel very strongly I am close here. Those are the actual cash payouts, so he is approx. $17.6 this year and $16 next year.

Luxury tax calculations are different, so that would be based on $22 million figure for 2020, but that doesn't matter as they are nowhere close.

Two more years of this.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-ma...yin-chen-8629/

So why does your deferred schedule differ from the deferred schedule here? Is spotrac just wrong?

- - - - - - - - - -

Either way, based on what you're saying here lou. Loria signed Chen to a 5-year/ $80 million contract, had him for 2 of those 5 years and only paid $7.5 million (or maybe $8.3 if you incorporate those minimums) of that $80 total.

What an asshole.

[lou]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-ma...yin-chen-8629/

So why does your deferred schedule differ from the deferred schedule here? Is spotrac just wrong?

- - - - - - - - - -

Either way, based on what you're saying here lou. Loria signed Chen to a 5-year/ $80 million contract, had him for 2 of those 5 years and only paid $7.5 million (or maybe $8.3 if you incorporate those minimums) of that $80 total.

What an asshole.

There is a conflict in numbers between this and COTs. One of them is right and wrong. I've always looked at COTs.

Cot's has 2022 deferred money, but I figured that was for the 2021 option (which Chen can't get to the innings to approve so it's a non-issue).

If Sportrac is right, it means Loria kicked the money an extra year (or two) down the road and he's going to be an albatross for 4 more years

- - - - - - - - - -

I think Sportrac is adding the 2021 conditional player option which definitely did NOT happen.

Look at the right bar:

NOV 5 2017Exercised a 4 year $75.8 million player option with Miami (MIA)

He absolutely didn't option 4 years. He couldn't. This is the 4 year option. It hasn't happened yet. - Chen receives 2021 player option if he 1) has 180 innings pitched in 2020 or 360 IP in 2019-20 and 2) is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2020 season, and 3) is healthy for 2021 spring training

I think Sportrac just saw the option was enacted on 2018-2020 and adding in the other one because it was probably an intern

- - - - - - - - - -

I'm sticking with Cot's here and that loose schedule I put above.

Two more years of this dude. Roughly $16-17 million each of the next two years.

[Nick]

There is a conflict in numbers between this and COTs. One of them is right and wrong. I've always looked at COTs.

Cot's has 2022 deferred money, but I figured that was for the 2021 option (which Chen can't get to the innings to approve so it's a non-issue).

If Sportrac is right, it means Loria kicked the money an extra year (or two) down the road and he's going to be an albatross for 4 more years

- - - - - - - - - -

I think Sportrac is adding the 2021 conditional player option which definitely did NOT happen.

Look at the right bar:

NOV 5 2017Exercised a 4 year $75.8 million player option with Miami (MIA)

He absolutely didn't option 4 years. He couldn't. This is the 4 year option. It hasn't happened yet. - Chen receives 2021 player option if he 1) has 180 innings pitched in 2020 or 360 IP in 2019-20 and 2) is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2020 season, and 3) is healthy for 2021 spring training

I think Sportrac just saw the option was enacted on 2018-2020 and adding in the other one because it was probably an intern

But both deferred schedules come out to $64.5 million, which I think we're confident does not include that 2021 option. There's definitely $64.5 deferred, $13 million signing bonus, and a missing $2.5 million.

- - - - - - - - - -

lou, found this from Cots.

Chen to receive deferred payments of $3M on 11/30/16, $4.5M on 11/30/17, $2M on 11/30/18, $6M on 6/30/19, $4M on 11/30/19, $9M on 6/30/20, $5M on 11/30/20, $15M on 6/30/21, $1M on 11/30/21, $15M on 6/30/22

That matches up with what Spotrac has.

[rmc523]

Can we pay him early and just have him go away lol.

[lou]

But both deferred schedules come out to $64.5 million, which I think we're confident does not include that 2021 option. There's definitely $64.5 deferred, $13 million signing bonus, and a missing $2.5 million.

- - - - - - - - - -

lou, found this from Cots.



That matches up with what Spotrac has.

That last year I feel is the conditional option? Maybe I'm wrong. This is COTS and it does not add up unless we assume that 2022 year is the option. I mean, Loria would have deferred the option right?

Total of $64.5M in 2016-21 salaries is deferred without interest (16:$3M, 17:$4.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$16M, 20:$17M , 21:$16M) < - No 2022
Chen to receive deferred payments of $3M on 11/30/16, $4.5M on 11/30/17, $2M on 11/30/18, $6M on 6/30/19, $4M on 11/30/19, $9M on 6/30/20, $5M on 11/30/20, $15M on 6/30/21, $1M on 11/30/21, $15M on 6/30/22 < - What's this?

- - - - - - - - - -

Can we pay him early and just have him go away lol.

If he's on the books in 2022, honestly I would and accelerate payment to 20/21.

That accomplishes the same thing as clearing house for when you are good.

[Nick]

That last year I feel is the conditional option? Maybe I'm wrong. This is COTS and it does not add up unless we assume that 2022 year is the option. I mean, Loria would have deferred the option right?

Total of $64.5M in 2016-21 salaries is deferred without interest (16:$3M, 17:$4.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$16M, 20:$17M , 21:$16M) < - No 2022
Chen to receive deferred payments of $3M on 11/30/16, $4.5M on 11/30/17, $2M on 11/30/18, $6M on 6/30/19, $4M on 11/30/19, $9M on 6/30/20, $5M on 11/30/20, $15M on 6/30/21, $1M on 11/30/21, $15M on 6/30/22 < - What's this?

3+4.5+2+6+4+9+5+15+1+15<-From 2022=$64.5

You need that $15 million in 2022 to get to the $64.5 number.

[lou]

3+4.5+2+6+4+9+5+15+1+15<-From 2022=$64.5

You need that $15 million in 2022 to get to the $64.5 number.

But you don't need it if you go by the 2016-2021 deferment schedule above. i.e., the no 2022 line above.

This is why we do this every 3-6 months. There is a key piece of information missing and someone is wrong somewhere. My assumption is that $15 million in 2022 is the 2021 option deferral. If not, "no 2022" line above is WRONG.

[Nick]

But you don't need it if you go by the 2016-2021 deferment schedule above. i.e., the no 2022 line above.

This is why we do this every 3-6 months. There is a key piece of information missing and someone is wrong somewhere. My assumption is that $15 million in 2022 is the 2021 option deferral. If not, "no 2022" line above is WRONG.

Well Cots schedule contradicts itself literally on consecutive lines.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...miami-marlins/

Total of $64.5M in 2016-21 salaries is deferred without interest (16:$3M, 17:$4.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$16M, 20:$17M , 21:$16M)
Chen to receive deferred payments of $3M on 11/30/16, $4.5M on 11/30/17, $2M on 11/30/18, $6M on 6/30/19, $4M on 11/30/19, $9M on 6/30/20, $5M on 11/30/20, $15M on 6/30/21, $1M on 11/30/21, $15M on 6/30/22