2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I think we're all tired of it. (well except for tj) I'm just not convinced that we won't be playing spring training games, or hell even regular season games before a trade actually happens.

Yep, and now they don't want Mejia. It never ends. https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-look...ez/c-303418256

[Lee Stone]

Yep, and now they don't want Mejia. It never ends. https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-look...ez/c-303418256

It shall end. CINN: India, Santillan, Bautista and Barnhart for Realmuto, Wittgren/Conley. SDP: Or how about bad contract Will Myers to play 1B (taking 60% of his salary) and Realmuto for Gore, Paddack, Hedges? Or circle back to Houston for Alvarez, two of Perez/Martin/Abreu, and Freudis Nova?

[tjfla]

I think we're all tired of it. (well except for tj) I'm just not convinced that we won't be playing spring training games, or hell even regular season games before a trade actually happens.

I have been tired of it Dec 2017 when they should have traded him to Washington

- - - - - - - - - -

They thought it ended Tuesday but got Hunter Greene's medicals and didnt like it so who knows? They asked for Trammell instead and were told NO.

Either take Greene and iffy medicals or Santillan and other prospects instead

[Ralph]

I’d really think about taking Green. Even if he has TJ that’s arm is special. And he’s shown control and ability to actually pitch.

[tjfla]

I’d really think about taking Green. Even if he has TJ that’s arm is special. And he’s shown control and ability to actually pitch.

That is the conflict in Miami FO-some people still want to get Greene and roll the dice while others are like if he is hurt and they wont trade Trammell than Cincy is probably out because Santillian and 2 other prospects isnt better than Atlanta

All I know is they thought on Tues/Wed the deal was done-India/Greene/other stuff then got his medicals and Dr was like he either needs TJ right now or he will probably need it soon

Santillian isn't a bad arm-6'2 250 21 in AA with solid numbers. Just isn't that WOW arm that Atlanta or SD have

[tjfla]

If Atlanta would take Wright out and put in Anderson then Miami would probably do a Anderson/Pache/2 others for JT FWIW(They really want Anderson/Riley/others but Atlanta won't). They would like to get that WOW arm in the deal(Atl-Anderson/Cin-Greene/SD-Gore,Morejon)

The issue they are having right now is they can't get Atlanta to include Anderson,Santillian isn't the WOW arm and Cincy doesn't have anything beside Greene(Wont trade Trammell),SD isn't ALL in on JT until they know they can get Harper or Machado. If SD gets a commit from 1 of them u could see a Urias/SP/ML OF type offer or Mejia/SP/ML OF/low level MIF but at this point they havent

Pretty much the same issue as they have with Houston-Houston is willing to trade Tucker AND a JB/Javier type but refuse to talk Whitley,James,Martin,Perez

We wanted to get something done by this weekend so expect a decision on Cincy soon. 3 options are

India/Greene(Bad Medicals)/others
India/Santillan/Barnhart/2 others(Marinan?Gutierrez?MIF?OF?)
Tell Cincy No thanks and wait for Atlanta/SD

Another "note" Miami has some interest in Jesse Winker. which is why I put others No clue if Cincy would put him in the deal but if they did could roll out Kemp-Senzel-Puig

[sports24/7]

If Atlanta would take Wright out and put in Anderson then Miami would probably do a Anderson/Pache/2 others for JT FWIW(They really want Anderson/Riley/others but Atlanta won't). They would like to get that WOW arm in the deal(Atl-Anderson/Cin-Greene/SD-Gore,Morejon)

The issue they are having right now is they can't get Atlanta to include Anderson,Santillian isn't the WOW arm and Cincy doesn't have anything beside Greene(Wont trade Trammell),SD isn't ALL in on JT until they know they can get Harper or Machado. If SD gets a commit from 1 of them u could see a Urias/SP/ML OF type offer or Mejia/SP/ML OF/low level MIF but at this point they havent

Pretty much the same issue as they have with Houston-Houston is willing to trade Tucker AND a JB/Javier type but refuse to talk Whitley,James,Martin,Perez

We wanted to get something done by this weekend so expect a decision on Cincy soon. 3 options are

India/Greene(Bad Medicals)/others
India/Santillan/Barnhart/2 others(Marinan?Gutierrez?MIF?OF?)
Tell Cincy No thanks and wait for Atlanta/SD

Another "note" Miami has some interest in Jesse Winker. which is why I put others No clue if Cincy would put him in the deal but if they did could roll out Kemp-Senzel-Puig

It's weird because Anderson and Wright seem so close. Some people even like Wright more. He could just as easily be a "wow" arm.

Wasn't it reported that Miami doesn't really love Mejia?

[fauowls44]

Kiley McDaniel


@kileymcd
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Sources indicate the Reds haven’t offered Jonathan India in any deal but he’s been asked for often as teams (like MIA+CLE) see Senzel/Trammell/Greene as tough ask & move to India. CIN dealt from IF strength w/Long+Downs but wants to hold India, may be ready when/if Gennett goes.

9:05 AM - 2 Feb 2019

I find this very difficult to believe.

[Lee Stone]

Kiley McDaniel


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Sources indicate the Reds haven’t offered Jonathan India in any deal but he’s been asked for often as teams (like MIA+CLE) see Senzel/Trammell/Greene as tough ask & move to India. CIN dealt from IF strength w/Long+Downs but wants to hold India, may be ready when/if Gennett goes.

9:05 AM - 2 Feb 2019

I find this very difficult to believe.

Kiley has low credibility to me. His Nov 8 article on Realmuto trade value suggested Whitley and Alvarez as a fair deal from Houston; Verdugo, May and Ruiz from LAD. Here's the article if you missed it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/so-you-w...-j-t-realmuto/

St Louis traded Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver and a nice IF Andy Young for one year of Goldschmidt at $17M. That would be roughly equivalent to Atlanta trading Austin Riley and Sean Newcombe and a F/V 40 IF for TWO years of Realmuto. Not reasonable. C Contreras, Austin Riley or Pache, and Anderson or Atlanta can shop elsewhere.

[lou]

Kiley McDaniel


@kileymcd
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Sources indicate the Reds haven’t offered Jonathan India in any deal but he’s been asked for often as teams (like MIA+CLE) see Senzel/Trammell/Greene as tough ask & move to India. CIN dealt from IF strength w/Long+Downs but wants to hold India, may be ready when/if Gennett goes.

9:05 AM - 2 Feb 2019

I find this very difficult to believe.

Yep. This report from rotoworld says: Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com is hearing that the Marlins and Reds are still negotiating a possible J.T. Realmuto trade. Mayo's sources indicate that a package is coalescing around catcher Tucker Barnhart, prospect infielder Jonathan India and one or more lesser prospects heading to the Marlins. Every day generates new rumors about Realmuto's possible destination but this is one of the more specific scenarios we have seen. Sources indicate the Reds have taken their top three prospects off the table (3B/2B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell and RHP Hunter Greene). India was the fifth overall selection in last year's Draft. He makes a natural trade candidate because he is blocked in Cincinnati by Eugenio Suarez at third base and at second base by Scooter Gennett and Senzel. The Marlins have been shopping Realmuto for years and are currently negotiating with the Padres in addition to the Reds. The Dodgers and Braves are among some other teams that are interested as well.

FG only has India has FV50, but MLB has him FV55, and I think it's reasonable to give a recent # 5 overall pick a FV55 grade. Doing the endless surplus value calculations, that places India at around $46 million in value. Barnhart is valuable even if people here want to bash him. He is 3/$10 or 4/$17 (roughly) depending on picking up his option. FG is projecting him as a 2+ WAR player, which seems a bit generous, but having him at say a 1.5+ WAR player for 3 years, it's hard to not judge him as a $25+ million asset, not including the option or if FG is right about his production. There is some upside there. He's also perfect for a young staff.

As we've discussed ad nauseam, Realmuto in the best light can be argued at around $75 million in surplus value. Since we're giving India the benefit of the doubt, we'll do the same for JT, so you're looking at basically $70 million with India/Barnhardt. So a lesser third player makes sense.

Santillan ($21) added as a third player is a great deal for the Marlins, even if they are giving up one of Conley/Straily/Wittgren in the trade (probably all aorund $10). Any throw-in after that by Cincy is icing on the cake. Totally works on paper ignoring a better deal may come through.

That's the deal I'd shot for if it's Cincy and Trammel/Senzel is off the board. India, Santillan, Barnhart, FV40ish whatever throw in, for Realmuto and Conley/Straily/Wittgren. If they want Steckenrider, they need to throw in another top 8-14 prospect in their system, which is basically a FV45ish kind of guy 2021+ and beyond ETA. That math all adds up either way.

That in July 2020 is interesting:

C - Barnhart, ________
1B - Anderson OR _______, Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - ______, Riddle
3B - India
LF - VVM
CF - Brinson/Monte, Sierra/Miller/Herrera/Other
RF - Anderson OR Monte(we can hope both Brinson/Monte work out?)

SP - Urena, Alcantara, Neidert, Pablo, _______
RHP - Steckenrider, Guzman, Santillan, E. Cabrera, Richards/Holloway/Whoever
LHP - Ca. Smith, Chen, Quijada/Other

Assuming Reds were to take Conley, that leaves Castro, Straily, Rojas, Walker, and probably a bunch of middle of the road RHP bullpen arms to move for young lefties and bench players which is a reasonable expectation. They'd fill out the rest with those guys and just need a 1B/RF starter(or upgrade) and a longterm SS.

All the money to Xander Boegarts and 1 year rotating 1B/RF starters depending on how the rest of the field shakes out.

- - - - - - - - - -

Oh and an ace DUH. They'd have $50+ million to spend on those 3 spots

[tjfla]

In deep talks with Cincy and its India/Barnhart/Santillan OR Guiterrez/1 or 2 others. Others mentioned were Stephenson C/Winker/Jose Israel Garcia/Scott Moss/James Marinan(Other words who the HELL knows)

Also we passed on Greene due to medicals. Not sure if Barnhart is staying as teams have interest(Oak/Minn/CWS) and we are said to like Martin Maldonado. I would keep Barnhart unless get a nice offer

Not sure they take Conley as they signed Zach Duke but are waiting to announce to this trade is done. Probably Wittgren and JT or JT alone

- - - - - - - - - -

SD is making a push but still refuse to go all in on JT without a commitment from Harper or Machado while Atlanta hasn't budged from Wright/Pache

[Lee Stone]

Yep. This report from rotoworld says: Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com is hearing that the Marlins and Reds are still negotiating a possible J.T. Realmuto trade. Mayo's sources indicate that a package is coalescing around catcher Tucker Barnhart, prospect infielder Jonathan India and one or more lesser prospects heading to the Marlins. Every day generates new rumors about Realmuto's possible destination but this is one of the more specific scenarios we have seen. Sources indicate the Reds have taken their top three prospects off the table (3B/2B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell and RHP Hunter Greene). India was the fifth overall selection in last year's Draft. He makes a natural trade candidate because he is blocked in Cincinnati by Eugenio Suarez at third base and at second base by Scooter Gennett and Senzel. The Marlins have been shopping Realmuto for years and are currently negotiating with the Padres in addition to the Reds. The Dodgers and Braves are among some other teams that are interested as well.

FG only has India has FV50, but MLB has him FV55, and I think it's reasonable to give a recent # 5 overall pick a FV55 grade. Doing the endless surplus value calculations, that places India at around $46 million in value. Barnhart is valuable even if people here want to bash him. He is 3/$10 or 4/$17 (roughly) depending on picking up his option. FG is projecting him as a 2+ WAR player, which seems a bit generous, but having him at say a 1.5+ WAR player for 3 years, it's hard to not judge him as a $25+ million asset, not including the option or if FG is right about his production. There is some upside there. He's also perfect for a young staff.

As we've discussed ad nauseam, Realmuto in the best light can be argued at around $75 million in surplus value. Since we're giving India the benefit of the doubt, we'll do the same for JT, so you're looking at basically $70 million with India/Barnhardt. So a lesser third player makes sense.

Santillan ($21) added as a third player is a great deal for the Marlins, even if they are giving up one of Conley/Straily/Wittgren in the trade (probably all aorund $10). Any throw-in after that by Cincy is icing on the cake. Totally works on paper ignoring a better deal may come through.

That's the deal I'd shot for if it's Cincy and Trammel/Senzel is off the board. India, Santillan, Barnhart, FV40ish whatever throw in, for Realmuto and Conley/Straily/Wittgren. If they want Steckenrider, they need to throw in another top 8-14 prospect in their system, which is basically a FV45ish kind of guy 2021+ and beyond ETA. That math all adds up either way.

That in July 2020 is interesting:

C - Barnhart, ________
1B - Anderson OR _______, Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - ______, Riddle
3B - India
LF - VVM
CF - Brinson/Monte, Sierra/Miller/Herrera/Other
RF - Anderson OR Monte(we can hope both Brinson/Monte work out?)

SP - Urena, Alcantara, Neidert, Pablo, _______
RHP - Steckenrider, Guzman, Santillan, E. Cabrera, Richards/Holloway/Whoever
LHP - Ca. Smith, Chen, Quijada/Other

Assuming Reds were to take Conley, that leaves Castro, Straily, Rojas, Walker, and probably a bunch of middle of the road RHP bullpen arms to move for young lefties and bench players which is a reasonable expectation. They'd fill out the rest with those guys and just need a 1B/RF starter(or upgrade) and a longterm SS.

All the money to Xander Boegarts and 1 year rotating 1B/RF starters depending on how the rest of the field shakes out.

- - - - - - - - - -

Oh and an ace DUH. They'd have $50+ million to spend on those 3 spots

Here's a John Sickels analysis of Reds prospects. Sickels was the best at this IMO. Note that he actually rates Santillan right above India. The only salvation I see to a CINN deal is getting Mariel Bautista as the 4th player. I think he'll be the best of the lot. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...pects-for-2019

[Ralph]

Wow I actually agree with Lee on something. Mariel Bautista would be someone of interest to me as one of the lesser prospects.

[tjfla]

Wow I actually agree with Lee on something. Mariel Bautista would be someone of interest to me as one of the lesser prospects.

I would prefer Jose Israel Garcia(20 yr old Cuban SS-Hech Clone) but Bautista is solid. We are deep in talks with Cincy but remember this Atlanta or SD could jump to #1 spot in 5 seconds. All Atlanta has to do is offer Anderson with Pache or SD has to up offer

[lou]

In deep talks with Cincy and its India/Barnhart/Santillan OR Guiterrez/1 or 2 others. Others mentioned were Stephenson C/Winker/Jose Israel Garcia/Scott Moss/James Marinan(Other words who the HELL knows)

There is a lot to like there so we'll see.