2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[tjfla]

Least we know 1 WILL be made before Tuesday. No chance Wittgren gets thru waivers or claimed by only 1 team so

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Before he signed a minor league contract with the Marlins in November, Harold Ramirez received offers from 15 teams, the outfielder tells Walter Villa of Baseball America (subscription required). The Blue Jays, with whom Ramirez played at the Double-A level from 2016-18, offered the largest bonus ($32K), but he accepted the Marlins’ $25K proposal because he believes they present a more immediate path to the majors. In fact, the Marlins informed Ramirez that only one of their outfielders, Lewis Brinson, is a lock for a major league roster spot in 2019. Considering the dearth of established outfielders on hand, the 24-year-old Ramirez – formerly a well-regarded prospect – will have an opportunity to vie for a big league job with the Marlins.

If Ramirez hits .300 in AAA and Dean struggles I would call him up and give him a look. Great signing tho and for 25K even better

[lou]

JT is the best player at his position in baseball. A position where there is a serious lack of talent. Yelich was a nice young player, but people didn't expect him to be an MVP caliber player when he was traded. JT, however, was putting up MVP numbers for a good stretch of the season. The notion that Yelich had far more value is ridiculous.

Yelich was controlled for 5 seasons at beneficial controlled prices. Realmuto 2. Also younger, multiple better seasons, higher pedigree, etc.

Respectfully, I find it unarguable Yelich was not ridiculously more valuable at the time of trade. I would argue at least double, probably more.

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Sure, but that's only part of the equation. Whoever trades for Realmuto will be doing so with the idea of keeping him longterm. But a team like LA can look at Realmuto as the final piece to a championship, or a team like the Braves could see him as the player that puts them into the picture as a real contender. That's what he gives you when it's so hard to fill the catcher spot with an impact player.

Even Realmuto on a 5 year deal wouldn't approach Yelich's expected surplus value as Yelich projects with a higher ceiling, AND Realmuto's 5 year contract today (let's say 5/$80-85) is still around $30 million more than Yelich's deal. That's a lot of money. Yelich is beating him both fronts here.

I don't disagree with you JT is a final piece on a championship squad and teams should pay a premium for that (plus catcher), but there has to be a tempering of expectations here of what to expect in a trade.

It's less than Yelich on paper. (Call it, take any one of Brinson/Monte/Diaz out of the deal), more than Ozuna/Gordon/Stanton. Maybe Marlins chuck in a relievers/Straily , etc.

[Nick]

Yelich also landed us a borderline Top 10 prospect, major league ready OF'er. Brinson has been a complete bust so far, but India and Santilla are neither as good of a prospect as Monte Harrison was at this time last year, who was the 2nd guy in that deal.

[Lee Stone]

Yelich was controlled for 5 seasons at beneficial controlled prices. Realmuto 2. Also younger, multiple better seasons, higher pedigree, etc.

Respectfully, I find it unarguable Yelich was not ridiculously more valuable at the time of trade. I would argue at least double, probably more.

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Even Realmuto on a 5 year deal wouldn't approach Yelich's expected surplus value as Yelich projects with a higher ceiling, AND Realmuto's 5 year contract today (let's say 5/$80-85) is still around $30 million more than Yelich's deal. That's a lot of money. Yelich is beating him both fronts here.

I don't disagree with you JT is a final piece on a championship squad and teams should pay a premium for that (plus catcher), but there has to be a tempering of expectations here of what to expect in a trade.

It's less than Yelich on paper. (Call it, take any one of Brinson/Monte/Diaz out of the deal), more than Ozuna/Gordon/Stanton. Maybe Marlins chuck in a relievers/Straily , etc.

All true. To get good value for Realmuto, the incoming players have to be viewed as extraneous or even flawed by the other team. Brinson had received a peek in the majors and MILW didn't like it. Harrison's game, particularly his hitting, showed high risk. Tthe Brewers wisely moved them while they still enjoyed high prospect status. I'd view Kyle Tucker similarly. He was regarded as untouchable until the Astros brought him up for a look. It looked a lot like Brinson's debut and raised doubt. The Padres would never part with six years of Mejia unless they didn't like what they saw last season.

I don't like flawed, so I'd have to look for extraneous. I see that primarily at Tampa Bay. The Rays were glad to get Zunino and feel pretty content with him. However, if they can add three wins with Realmuto without losing prospects that they view as vital, they might do it. Here's the stat sheet for Tampa Bay's AA affiliate in the Southern League. You will note that Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe, Nick Solak all had vastly more success than Harrison and Diaz at Jacksonville. All three of them, plus young SS Fox, could come to Miami in a Realmuto trade that wouldn't hurt the Rays at all.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...=true&sid=t421

[sports24/7]

Yelich was controlled for 5 seasons at beneficial controlled prices. Realmuto 2. Also younger, multiple better seasons, higher pedigree, etc.

Respectfully, I find it unarguable Yelich was not ridiculously more valuable at the time of trade. I would argue at least double, probably more.

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Even Realmuto on a 5 year deal wouldn't approach Yelich's expected surplus value as Yelich projects with a higher ceiling, AND Realmuto's 5 year contract today (let's say 5/$80-85) is still around $30 million more than Yelich's deal. That's a lot of money. Yelich is beating him both fronts here.

I don't disagree with you JT is a final piece on a championship squad and teams should pay a premium for that (plus catcher), but there has to be a tempering of expectations here of what to expect in a trade.

It's less than Yelich on paper. (Call it, take any one of Brinson/Monte/Diaz out of the deal), more than Ozuna/Gordon/Stanton. Maybe Marlins chuck in a relievers/Straily , etc.

I respectfully disagree. I think you're getting bogged down too much in the analytics. If you are a team trying to win a WS now, surplus value is great, but if you have a hole in the starting lineup, it doesn't matter. JT fills a hole that you probably don't get close to filling in the same way elsewhere. Yelich is a nice player, but you can find other players to fill an OF spot that give you similar production to what was expected from Yelich (or at least much closer to it), much easier than you can at catcher.

[lou]

I respectfully disagree. I think you're getting bogged down too much in the analytics. If you are a team trying to win a WS now, surplus value is great, but if you have a hole in the starting lineup, it doesn't matter. JT fills a hole that you probably don't get close to filling in the same way elsewhere. Yelich is a nice player, but you can find other players to fill an OF spot that give you similar production to what was expected from Yelich (or at least much closer to it), much easier than you can at catcher.

Well, it absolutely matters. You don't jettison whatever is in the farm for the hell of it just to fill a hole. Maybe if this is July 31st and this is the end of the window because multiple players are expected to leave scenario, but we're getting too hypothetical at that point.

Practically too, do these teams have holes? Realmuto is probably 2+ wins more than someone like Barnhardt, maybe a little more (2.5+) for Zunino, Barnes/Martin and McCann/Flowers (note, all of those guys don't stink and real upside with Barnhardt, Barnes, and Zunino if they hit more which they all could). Realmuto is really awesome, but he's a luxury for those teams with what they have. It's not like they don't have nothing. 2 wins is a lot, but it's not like they are getting all 4+ WAR wins from his production..... like Cleveland is probably a team that should sell out as Plawecki/Perez is a legitimate step down from Barnhardt/Zunino/Barnes to me. Same with the Nationals as Suzuki is only getting older and this could convince Harper to stay. I don't see the desperation (also, SD is no where close to contending so I don't see any glaring need to "go for it" with them either). Regardless, I just can't see how you can compare 5 years of cheap controlled Yelich versus 2 years of Realmuto or 5 years "30+ million more expensive" Realmuto at older ages.

But I hope you are right and the intrinsic value of the # 1 catcher in baseball goes beyond a typical analytical analysis and the Marlins get the windfall.

Practically, I think the debate over Realmuto is do you continue to hold out for the "FV60" guy and take lesser FV45/40 secondary players, versus getting more of an assortment of FV55/FV50/Barnhardt/Throw in sort of thing. I think that's the only academic question here. I think well over half the board defers to the "get the star prospect, there is adequate depth" camp. I think that would be ideal, but I'm just not going to hate on the larger package if they do it right. Basically, using the Reds as an example, both of these are fine (and they can easily have Straily/Wittgren, maybe Conley in these situations):

India(FV55), Santillan(FV50), Barnhardt (basically a good FV50 player with his expected surplus value), and FV40 throw in
or
Trammel/Senzel (FV60), FV45, FV40 throw in, and FV40 throw in. Maybe another whatever throw in.

Both of those work and I don't think anyone should be pissed off in either of those scenarios.

I just don't see how anything less than Trammel "and" India is a bad deal. Those two guys are more valuable together than Realmuto and arguably any 1 other player in the Marlins organization not named Anderson.

[CWB3]

Craig Mish

Riley OR Anderson + 1 decent prospect (No one in their org top 10)+ dart throw prospect

JTR + Steckenrider/Conley

https://mobile.twitter.com/CraigMish...92291047714818

Not sure how to embed. This would be disappointing.

[Nick]

I just don't see how anything less than Trammel "and" India is a bad deal. Those two guys are more valuable together than Realmuto and arguably any 1 other player in the Marlins organization not named Anderson.

Based on what? Your FV system you're always spouting? Lou I respect you, I think you are one of the best most knowledgeable posters on this board, but there's more to evaluating players than some be all end all rating system.
Jonathan India has 150 professional ABs to his name, right now, he hit .229 above rookie ball. That is not enough information to have any idea what he's going to be.

[sports24/7]

Well, it absolutely matters. You don't jettison whatever is in the farm for the hell of it just to fill a hole. Maybe if this is July 31st and this is the end of the window because multiple players are expected to leave scenario, but we're getting too hypothetical at that point.

Practically too, do these teams have holes? Realmuto is probably 2+ wins more than someone like Barnhardt, maybe a little more (2.5+) for Zunino, Barnes/Martin and McCann/Flowers (note, all of those guys don't stink and real upside with Barnhardt, Barnes, and Zunino if they hit more which they all could). Realmuto is really awesome, but he's a luxury for those teams with what they have. It's not like they don't have nothing. 2 wins is a lot, but it's not like they are getting all 4+ WAR wins from his production..... like Cleveland is probably a team that should sell out as Plawecki/Perez is a legitimate step down from Barnhardt/Zunino/Barnes to me. Same with the Nationals as Suzuki is only getting older and this could convince Harper to stay. I don't see the desperation (also, SD is no where close to contending so I don't see any glaring need to "go for it" with them either). Regardless, I just can't see how you can compare 5 years of cheap controlled Yelich versus 2 years of Realmuto or 5 years "30+ million more expensive" Realmuto at older ages.

But I hope you are right and the intrinsic value of the # 1 catcher in baseball goes beyond a typical analytical analysis and the Marlins get the windfall.

Practically, I think the debate over Realmuto is do you continue to hold out for the "FV60" guy and take lesser FV45/40 secondary players, versus getting more of an assortment of FV55/FV50/Barnhardt/Throw in sort of thing. I think that's the only academic question here. I think well over half the board defers to the "get the star prospect, there is adequate depth" camp. I think that would be ideal, but I'm just not going to hate on the larger package if they do it right. Basically, using the Reds as an example, both of these are fine (and they can easily have Straily/Wittgren, maybe Conley in these situations):

India(FV55), Santillan(FV50), Barnhardt (basically a good FV50 player with his expected surplus value), and FV40 throw in
or
Trammel/Senzel (FV60), FV45, FV40 throw in, and FV40 throw in. Maybe another whatever throw in.

Both of those work and I don't think anyone should be pissed off in either of those scenarios.

I just don't see how anything less than Trammel "and" India is a bad deal. Those two guys are more valuable together than Realmuto and arguably any 1 other player in the Marlins organization not named Anderson.

I completely agree with getting the "star prospect" rather than the assorted pieces of merely good prospects. To me, if those guys become what they're expected to be, you have a team with a bunch of above average players, that that doesn't get you very far. A prospect pool like that means you have to either get lucky in the draft, or sign a big time player to become a real contender.

[Lee Stone]

I completely agree with getting the "star prospect" rather than the assorted pieces of merely good prospects. To me, if those guys become what they're expected to be, you have a team with a bunch of above average players, that that doesn't get you very far. A prospect pool like that means you have to either get lucky in the draft, or sign a big time player to become a real contender.

Everyone has their own viewpoint. Mine is that if you cover the field with Brian Andersons (above average players) you will have a darn good team. The Marlins had only three of that type last season (BA, Castro and JT) among position players. The pitching staff may have had one, depending on your view of Urena. Adding a half dozen guys with above average capabilities will advance the team more than one or two high fliers (who have nearly as high a risk of flaming out as the rest).

[lou]

Based on what? Your FV system you're always spouting? Lou I respect you, I think you are one of the best most knowledgeable posters on this board, but there's more to evaluating players than some be all end all rating system.
Jonathan India has 150 professional ABs to his name, right now, he hit .229 above rookie ball. That is not enough information to have any idea what he's going to be.

Well it's Fangraphs, not mine. It's hard not to defer to people smarter than all of us. But prospects have a value regardless that many obviously don't work out. Based on a scouting perspective, those guys fall into a value category and it is what it is. Also India is an advanced college hitter, not a 17 year old Osiris Johnson. There is plenty of information on guys like that versus a total tools gamble.

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I completely agree with getting the "star prospect" rather than the assorted pieces of merely good prospects. To me, if those guys become what they're expected to be, you have a team with a bunch of above average players, that that doesn't get you very far. A prospect pool like that means you have to either get lucky in the draft, or sign a big time player to become a real contender.

Yep, but the whole assumption is $50 million in free agency money will move in, in 2021. If that doesn't happen, they won't have a chance absent some serious 90th percentile upside breakouts of 3-4 guys like Brinson, Monte, Alcantara becoming a # 2, etc.

[tjfla]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CraigMish...92291047714818

Not sure how to embed. This would be disappointing.

Just shows how much they want Anderson but Ill pass on Atlanta if that is the "compromise". Even tho NOT in Org Top 10 is Wentz/Mueller/Contereas. I heard it is still Wright/Pache and they are NOT really into Wright. If JT is going to Atlanta they have to beat all other offers

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Well, it absolutely matters. You don't jettison whatever is in the farm for the hell of it just to fill a hole. Maybe if this is July 31st and this is the end of the window because multiple players are expected to leave scenario, but we're getting too hypothetical at that point.

Practically too, do these teams have holes? Realmuto is probably 2+ wins more than someone like Barnhardt, maybe a little more (2.5+) for Zunino, Barnes/Martin and McCann/Flowers (note, all of those guys don't stink and real upside with Barnhardt, Barnes, and Zunino if they hit more which they all could). Realmuto is really awesome, but he's a luxury for those teams with what they have. It's not like they don't have nothing. 2 wins is a lot, but it's not like they are getting all 4+ WAR wins from his production..... like Cleveland is probably a team that should sell out as Plawecki/Perez is a legitimate step down from Barnhardt/Zunino/Barnes to me. Same with the Nationals as Suzuki is only getting older and this could convince Harper to stay. I don't see the desperation (also, SD is no where close to contending so I don't see any glaring need to "go for it" with them either). Regardless, I just can't see how you can compare 5 years of cheap controlled Yelich versus 2 years of Realmuto or 5 years "30+ million more expensive" Realmuto at older ages.

But I hope you are right and the intrinsic value of the # 1 catcher in baseball goes beyond a typical analytical analysis and the Marlins get the windfall.

Practically, I think the debate over Realmuto is do you continue to hold out for the "FV60" guy and take lesser FV45/40 secondary players, versus getting more of an assortment of FV55/FV50/Barnhardt/Throw in sort of thing. I think that's the only academic question here. I think well over half the board defers to the "get the star prospect, there is adequate depth" camp. I think that would be ideal, but I'm just not going to hate on the larger package if they do it right. Basically, using the Reds as an example, both of these are fine (and they can easily have Straily/Wittgren, maybe Conley in these situations):

India(FV55), Santillan(FV50), Barnhardt (basically a good FV50 player with his expected surplus value), and FV40 throw in
or
Trammel/Senzel (FV60), FV45, FV40 throw in, and FV40 throw in. Maybe another whatever throw in.

Both of those work and I don't think anyone should be pissed off in either of those scenarios.

I just don't see how anything less than Trammel "and" India is a bad deal. Those two guys are more valuable together than Realmuto and arguably any 1 other player in the Marlins organization not named Anderson.

India//Barnhart/Santillan/Marinan OR Heatherly/low level prospect is a solid offer which like lou says is value wise good. Thing is teams like SD/Atlanta/TB/LAD could beat that offer easily which is why u see this thing dragging. THose teams heard the offer and have called us back saying we will up the offer that we made before.

Another thing about Cincy trade is we do NOT need Barnhart in the deal- in fact teams like Oak/Minn/CWS have already called asking if we get him would we move him so possible we could even do a 3 way. Until Martin Maldonado is off the market we don't actually need a C because from whispers we are interested in him as well

Something has to get done with Wittgren by tomm so we will get atleast 1 trade

Cincy is still the FAVE at this point but could change in an hour if 1 of the other 4 teams decide they want to

[Lee Stone]

India//Barnhart/Santillan/Marinan OR Heatherly/low level prospect is a solid offer. Where does this come from?? I've seen nothing about Santillan being included by CINN - in fact, I've read Barnhart, India and a lower level prospect. Santillan is certainly not a lower level guy. His value is basically equal to India's.

[tjfla]

India//Barnhart/Santillan/Marinan OR Heatherly/low level prospect is a solid offer. Where does this come from?? I've seen nothing about Santillan being included by CINN - in fact, I've read Barnhart, India and a lower level prospect. Santillan is certainly not a lower level guy. His value is basically equal to India's.

The reported offer is India/Barnhart/Santillan OR Guiterrez/low level prospect or 2. Have heard BOTH names as #3 guy and am saying thats a deal that would work like LOU said(value wise)

I like Mayo ALOT as a prospects guy but he is the 1 who said Barnhart/India/lower level and he is NOT know for his rumors at all

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Just a note on Atlanta. If they want him they will have to beat ALL other offers. People seem to think all Atlanta has to do is match the top offer but in reality they have to beat it because they are in the NL East

Yes Miami likes Ian Anderson alot and might be the best overall prospect in trade offers but if Cincy/SD have better overall offers he is going there

[lou]

Everyone has their own viewpoint. Mine is that if you cover the field with Brian Andersons (above average players) you will have a darn good team. The Marlins had only three of that type last season (BA, Castro and JT) among position players. The pitching staff may have had one, depending on your view of Urena. Adding a half dozen guys with above average capabilities will advance the team more than one or two high fliers (who have nearly as high a risk of flaming out as the rest).

Either way is fine for me, they just need to get guys who plug spots.

It's solely dependent on money bridging the gap to contending in 2021, or, they have 2023 circled and multiple more drafts and IFA periods are intended to supplant the team when the current MLB rookies are about to be free agents in a year or two. I just can't see how this is Plan A given they just got the team and need to build a fan base

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The reported offer is India/Barnhart/Santillan OR Guiterrez/low level prospect or 2. Have heard BOTH names as #3 guy and am saying thats a deal that would work like LOU said(value wise)

I like Mayo ALOT as a prospects guy but he is the 1 who said Barnhart/India/lower level and he is NOT know for his rumors at all

That's really solid, even if other teams can beat it. Can't wait for this to be over.