2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[tjfla]

you do that houston deal in a heartbeat. id add more major league players in order to get the package they want. I dont see why adding Rojas, Conley, Steckenrider, etc to a deal would make you hesitate if you're getting the package you want.

- - - - - - - - - -



that would literally be enough to get me to hang up the phone and straight up say under no circumstances will i be doing a JT deal with you and to kindly go fuck yourself.

Ya thats why Houston got pissed off and signed Chirinos. They thought Tucker/Pitcher/Stubbs was solid offer and were told it wasnt so they signed him before the FA guys all signed

They are still in on JT since he is only signed for 1 year and JT can play 1B/DH

- - - - - - - - - -

Gonna be interesting week but at this point looks like the NYM are OUT on JT

All can change if they put Rosario in

[fish16]

Ya thats why Houston got pissed off and signed Chirinos. They thought Tucker/Pitcher/Stubbs was solid offer and were told it wasnt so they signed him before the FA guys all signed

They are still in on JT since he is only signed for 1 year and JT can play 1B/DH

- - - - - - - - - -

Gonna be interesting week but at this point looks like the NYM are OUT on JT

All can change if they put Rosario in

Ya, good for them just moving on from NYM. Their offer is least desirable even in the best case scenario so for them to be considering just good prospects untouchable is a joke. Just keep it up with houston. Give them relievers if you cant strike a deal, they need them, we dont, and a deal makes sense for both sides. I see some sort of compromise their eventually to were its Jt + for Tucker, Bukauskus/Martin, Stubbs, and lower level flier guy.

- - - - - - - - - -

honestly, tucker, pitcher, + stubbs is a really good offer. Id keep trying for more but if thats what we end up with im cool with it depending on who the pitcher is.

[lou]

thats an absolutely trash offer.

It's not, you are falling into the overvaluing your own players trap.

I did the math already

Realmuto - he's generously a $70 million surplus, value on a 2 year deal however since a team can sign him for 5 years on a reasonable deal more than likely, I'm going to tick him up to a 4+ WAR player over 5 years. That's $80-90 million in value. Here's where the "NL East Overpay" kicks in.

Mets

Nimmo is probably closer to a 2.5 WAR guy versus what he did last year, and will get higher arbitration numbers with more "power" numbers, he's probably worth $60-70 million as a 2.5 WAR player moving forward.

Gimenez is a FV55 hitting prospect, so he is a $40+ surplus value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/)

Petersen, as a FV50 pitcher, is slotted lower so he is $15-20

Looks to me Realmuto is $70-90 in the eye of the beholder, and those Mets guys are worth $115-125


I'm not saying I'd not rather have Tucker or Soroka/Riley (I would), but that is no joke of an offer if true.

[fish16]

It's not, you are falling into the overvaluing your own players trap.

I did the math already

Realmuto - he's generously a $70 million surplus, value on a 2 year deal however since a team can sign him for 5 years on a reasonable deal more than likely, I'm going to tick him up to a 4+ WAR player over 5 years. That's $80-90 million in value. Here's where the "NL East Overpay" kicks in.

Mets

Nimmo is probably closer to a 2.5 WAR guy versus what he did last year, and will get higher arbitration numbers with more "power" numbers, he's probably worth $60-70 million as a 2.5 WAR player moving forward.

Gimenez is a FV55 hitting prospect, so he is a $40+ surplus value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/)

Petersen, as a FV50 pitcher, is slotted lower so he is $15-20

Looks to me Realmuto is $70-90 in the eye of the beholder, and those Mets guys are worth $115-125


I'm not saying I'd not rather have Tucker or Soroka/Riley (I would), but that is no joke of an offer if true.

Im not a fan of the values and the way you determine value in trades like this. Nimmo, Giminez, Nido would be a truly horrendous return for JT. Only way id even consider a mets offer is if it had 2 of Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, and Alonso and then another prospect(s) on top of that.

- - - - - - - - - -

nimmo just does not do it for me at all unless its in the context of flipping him to a team that values him a lot more than i would. He is not a #1 return for JT type of player. He just isnt. None of the mets guys really are unless they are willing to combine guys. If they arent you tell them to fuck off and enjoy d'arnaud behind the plate on their team that is inevitably out of it and a dumpster fire by june.

[lou]

Just because you don't like it, doesn't mean it's not true. Nimmo has real value. You don't have to like him, but he had a great year and the BB rate is outstanding. He is a high floor guy even if the AVG moves down.

I would consider Gimenez the get regardless. He's what the Marlins need. They need a young high potential SS.

[fish16]

Just because you don't like it, doesn't mean it's not true. Nimmo has real value. You don't have to like him, but he had a great year and the BB rate is outstanding. He is a high floor guy even if the AVG moves down.

I would consider Gimenez the get regardless. He's what the Marlins need. They need a young high potential SS.

Its not good value though despite you putting numbers next to the guys. The marlins either need a top prospect like Wright, Anderson, Soroka, riley, or tucker leading a deal or they need a deal to be super deep. The mets is the exact opposite of both of those requirements. Nimmo is more floor than ceiling and his minor league numbers spell this out, and would be especially bad given his low ceiling and our organizational OF depth. Giminez is a good prospect but he isnt any headliner in a jt deal. Nido is a nothing prospect im not sure why he continues to be talked about as anything else other than a deal filler for us to have a catcher for next year. Simply put that would be a horrendous deal if thats what we end up trading jt for. Thats a deal id be fine with trading ozuna for, not a guy like JT.

[sports24/7]

It's not, you are falling into the overvaluing your own players trap.

I did the math already

Realmuto - he's generously a $70 million surplus, value on a 2 year deal however since a team can sign him for 5 years on a reasonable deal more than likely, I'm going to tick him up to a 4+ WAR player over 5 years. That's $80-90 million in value. Here's where the "NL East Overpay" kicks in.

Mets

Nimmo is probably closer to a 2.5 WAR guy versus what he did last year, and will get higher arbitration numbers with more "power" numbers, he's probably worth $60-70 million as a 2.5 WAR player moving forward.

Gimenez is a FV55 hitting prospect, so he is a $40+ surplus value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/)

Petersen, as a FV50 pitcher, is slotted lower so he is $15-20

Looks to me Realmuto is $70-90 in the eye of the beholder, and those Mets guys are worth $115-125


I'm not saying I'd not rather have Tucker or Soroka/Riley (I would), but that is no joke of an offer if true.

How does that compare to the reported Atlanta packages in numbers? Because those deals feel better to me.

[Lee Stone]

To Mets: Realmuto
To ATL: Nimmo
To Miami: SS Giminez, (a NY C), 3b Riley, RHP Bryse Wilson, C Contreras + a lower top 20 P (or Soroka/Anderson instead of Riley)

I think this is realistic and very helpful to Miami in providing multiple upgrades. If you're dreaming on Kyle Tucker, trade Nimmo to Cleveland for Tucker clone Nolan Jones and others. Heck, I wouldn't be even mildly shocked if Houston was willing to trade Tucker himself for Nimmo. (Note on Tucker vs. Nolan Jones: Jones grades out as equal or better than Tucker in all skills other than power right now - and that's just 55-50. Jones also has multi-positional value like B Anderson and is a year and a half younger than Tucker.) Yellow flags on Tucker: underwhelming visit to majors last year and minor league numbers that were inflated at Fresno. Take a look at the stats for that entire AAA Fresno team. The whole roster put up Hall of Fame numbers. More on Nimmo: His 4.4 WAR last season was FAR higher than George Springer, Josh Reddick, or anyone else in the Astro OF. Tucker was - .9 WAR for his one month stay. Nimmo would be an ideal leadoff hitter for Houston - his on base skill is real - .400 two seasons in a row!

Why for Mets? New GM is pushing hard to make immediate impact. Catcher is a huge need. He has a choice of signing Grandal for maybe 4 years and $65M and keeping Nimmo, or getting a better catcher and signing a replacement for Nimmo.

Why for Atlanta? Nimmo 4.4 WAR for minimum wage replaces an expensive Markakis 2.6.

Why for Miami? A SS is a great place to start building. Giminez is likely to be one of the highest rated SS prospects in a year or two. Riley can hit. Contreras is vastly better than Miami's catcher prospects. Bryse Wilson would become the top pitching prospect.

[Lee Stone]

You might be able to end up with Tucker or Soroka/Riley PLUS Giminez!

[lou]

How does that compare to the reported Atlanta packages in numbers? Because those deals feel better to me.

To note, I don't think FG is the gospel, but it's a fair way to analyze things to at least not say a deal is complete trash or terrible.

Atlanta guys are very valuable

Pache is probably around $50-55ish (they have him as a FV60 hitter, not sure if that is fair and he should be down a little. I think he probably moves to a FV55)
Riley FV 55 Hitter - $45ish
Soroka/Wright/Anderson FV55 SP - $40ish
--
Waters/Contreras FV 50 - $20-25ish (although they do have some lower outside top 100, but this is prob fair)
Gohara (I think he gets downgraded)/Touki/B.Wilson/Allard/Muller FV 50 SP $15-20ish

So if you're thinking Soroka/Riley, plus any guy in that second group, you're around that same numerical projected value as Nimmo/Gimenez/Petersen.

The difference is, Atlanta is all upside as these guys are prospects and they could establish MLB value and explode. If Riley comes in and by the end of service year 1, turns into a 3 WAR player, he doubles in value and murdering the Mets deal (of course, Gimenez could do this too, etc.).

You're basically taking three swings on major upside with Atlanta, versus a lower ceiling Nimmo (he did have a 4.4 WAR, but he did had a high BABIP and might be a .240 hitter. Low defense suggests to me he is an "Anderson" type value wise who had a good year) and Petersen (he's basically a # 4 SP Neidert, or # 3 if some amazing uptick happens). You're also a higher floor as Nimmo has already established himself (if you believe he is in fact a MLB starter like Anderson). This is fine if it is the best deal.

If Atlanta offers any 2 of those guys in the top bracket, and any 1 in the lower (they probably have a few other names that work there too), that trumps the Mets deal for sure. But if they don't throw in Muller or Contreras or something, Nimmo/Gimenez/Petersen is a pretty attractive deal.

Note: Tucker is a FV60 and a rock solid $55. If you're getting C. Perez ($15-20), and a good third player (Martin, James, Alcala, etc.), this also adds up and you probably take this deal to take the one major swing at the bat to get a guy who could be a superstar.

[Lee Stone]

Fun question for you, Lou. You got me looking at Nolan Jones with an earlier post. Who has the better ML career, Tucker or Jones? (Jones still has plenty of time to achieve that 60 rating before he reaches Tucker's age). Note: I like Jones a helluva lot more than Riley - better athlete.

And why label Nimmo as an overachiever for one year? He's put up nearly identical numbers in two consecutive years!

[lou]

Tucker is considered the better prospect across the board so you gotta go with him. Jones is no slouch though.

I'm honestly a bit surprised Cleveland isn't hard in on Realmuto with what their team looks like.

They can move McKenzie, Jones, and reasonable secondary pieces - Oviedo(?) and Haase(?) - get Realmuto and likely a RP as the Marlins can easily chuck in Conley/Wittgren, and then trade Bauer for presumably a lot of stuff (maybe one of those assets heads back to Miami as a better 3rd player). That really builds out their team if there is a play now OF in the Bauer package. Works for everyone. I guess they don't think Realmuto will sign an extension.

[tjfla]

To note, I don't think FG is the gospel, but it's a fair way to analyze things to at least not say a deal is complete trash or terrible.

Atlanta guys are very valuable

Pache is probably around $50-55ish (they have him as a FV60 hitter, not sure if that is fair and he should be down a little. I think he probably moves to a FV55)
Riley FV 55 Hitter - $45ish
Soroka/Wright/Anderson FV55 SP - $40ish
--
Waters/Contreras FV 50 - $20-25ish (although they do have some lower outside top 100, but this is prob fair)
Gohara (I think he gets downgraded)/Touki/B.Wilson/Allard/Muller FV 50 SP $15-20ish

So if you're thinking Soroka/Riley, plus any guy in that second group, you're around that same numerical projected value as Nimmo/Gimenez/Petersen.

The difference is, Atlanta is all upside as these guys are prospects and they could establish MLB value and explode. If Riley comes in and by the end of service year 1, turns into a 3 WAR player, he doubles in value and murdering the Mets deal (of course, Gimenez could do this too, etc.).

You're basically taking three swings on major upside with Atlanta, versus a lower ceiling Nimmo (he did have a 4.4 WAR, but he did had a high BABIP and might be a .240 hitter. Low defense suggests to me he is an "Anderson" type value wise who had a good year) and Petersen (he's basically a # 4 SP Neidert, or # 3 if some amazing uptick happens). You're also a higher floor as Nimmo has already established himself (if you believe he is in fact a MLB starter like Anderson). This is fine if it is the best deal.

If Atlanta offers any 2 of those guys in the top bracket, and any 1 in the lower (they probably have a few other names that work there too), that trumps the Mets deal for sure. But if they don't throw in Muller or Contreras or something, Nimmo/Gimenez/Petersen is a pretty attractive deal.

Note: Tucker is a FV60 and a rock solid $55. If you're getting C. Perez ($15-20), and a good third player (Martin, James, Alcala, etc.), this also adds up and you probably take this deal to take the one major swing at the bat to get a guy who could be a superstar.

This is what Miami wants from Atlanta but havent been able to get

Riley AND 1 of Soroka/Anderson/Wright
AND
1 of Touki/Muller/Wentz

As for the NYM offer they are holding out for Nimmo/Gimenez/ALONSO if no Rosario(who they really want). They are cool with a Peterson/Kilome/Kay IF the other 2 are Rosario/Nimmo

With Houston they have been offered Tucker/Pitcher like Alcala,Javier,JB/C while they want Tucker/Pitcher like James,Martin,Perez/Mid level prospect/C

All 3 teams(Atl/NYM/Hou)are off 1 player in Miami's eyes. If any of those teams up's offer by 1 player it can get done(which is why alot of people think something happens)

[Lee Stone]

Tucker is considered the better prospect across the board so you gotta go with him. Jones is no slouch though.

I'm honestly a bit surprised Cleveland isn't hard in on Realmuto with what their team looks like.

They can move McKenzie, Jones, and reasonable secondary pieces - Oviedo(?) and Haase(?) - get Realmuto and likely a RP as the Marlins can easily chuck in Conley/Wittgren, and then trade Bauer for presumably a lot of stuff (maybe one of those assets heads back to Miami as a better 3rd player). That really builds out their team if there is a play now OF in the Bauer package. Works for everyone. I guess they don't think Realmuto will sign an extension.

We're looking at different boards, I guess. MLB.com rates Tucker ahead of Jones in a single category (power) and only by the smallest margin. Jones has the bigger arm. Overall, I would personally rate Jones as the more valuable prospect because of his background as a SS - and therefore quicker reflexes/advanced dexterity. Tucker's defensive skills were questioned during his trip to the majors - even leading to discussion that he might be better suited to 1B,

[tjfla]

We're looking at different boards, I guess. MLB.com rates Tucker ahead of Jones in a single category (power) and only by the smallest margin. Jones has the bigger arm. Overall, I would personally rate Jones as the more valuable prospect because of his background as a SS - and therefore quicker reflexes/advanced dexterity. Tucker's defensive skills were questioned during his trip to the majors - even leading to discussion that he might be better suited to 1B,

MLB.com is NOT the place to look at rankings. They are good at scouting reports but rankings are terrible. Fangraphs is ALOT better