2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

And 2019 and likely 2020 are irrelevant for the Marlins. So who cares.

You can speed things up a little having a top 5 pitcher in baseball under team control at a great price for 3 years. 2020 isnt out of the question if you add a guy like him and you get some of the other SP prospects + Urena to pan out. If anything its just good value if you can turn JT and a few other pieces into a long term SS in Rosario who was a top 5 prospect in baseball a year ago, a long term 1b starter right away in Alonso, and then a cy young candidate under control for 3 more years. And if anything if the rebuild goes slower you deal Kluber for more prospects before he hits free agency.

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Say you do and the mets are willing to do JT, Rojas, Steckenrider/Conley for Nimmo/Conforto, Rosario, Alonso. Then you flip Nimmo/Conforto, Steckenrider/Conley, maybe Castro, and probably a prospect for Kluber. you end up giving up JT, Rojas, Steckrider, Conley, castro maybe, prospect for Rosario (top 5 prospect a year ago with 5 years of team control), Alonso (top 50-75ish prospect major league ready), and Kluber (long term ace we need under control for 3 years). Thats great value and fills 3 huge long term needs and does so right away.

[Lee Stone]

Talk about a dream come true for a 30-year-old pitcher with a career WAR of 9, a 4.16 career ERA and WHIP of an ungodly 1.35! Nathan Eovaldi is about to score a multi-year contract for $17M per!!! What are the odds that ends well for Boston? Maybe one in ten?

[lou]

You can speed things up a little having a top 5 pitcher in baseball under team control at a great price for 3 years. 2020 isnt out of the question if you add a guy like him and you get some of the other SP prospects + Urena to pan out. If anything its just good value if you can turn JT and a few other pieces into a long term SS in Rosario who was a top 5 prospect in baseball a year ago, a long term 1b starter right away in Alonso, and then a cy young candidate under control for 3 more years. And if anything if the rebuild goes slower you deal Kluber for more prospects before he hits free agency.

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Say you do and the mets are willing to do JT, Rojas, Steckenrider/Conley for Nimmo/Conforto, Rosario, Alonso. Then you flip Nimmo/Conforto, Steckenrider/Conley, maybe Castro, and probably a prospect for Kluber. you end up giving up JT, Rojas, Steckrider, Conley, castro maybe, prospect for Rosario (top 5 prospect a year ago with 5 years of team control), Alonso (top 50-75ish prospect major league ready), and Kluber (long term ace we need under control for 3 years). Thats great value and fills 3 huge long term needs and does so right away.

Kluber wouldn't do anything but make the battle to .500 easier. It's such a terrible idea to trade assets for a clear win now player when you're 20+ games from contending. It would be a miracle. It would be Sierra and Yamamoto turning into Willy Mays Hayes and Wild Thing.

You're also not getting Kluber for that. Come on man.

[Namaste]

It won’t be long before Isan Diaz is our highest ranked prospect

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I mean, isn’t Rosario kind of like a better hitting Hechavarria who isn’t as good as a defender as Hechavarria?

[Lee Stone]

It won’t be long before Isan Diaz is our highest ranked prospect

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I mean, isn’t Rosario kind of like a better hitting Hechavarria who isn’t as good as a defender as Hechavarria?

That's a very fair question. Miguel Rojas was a far bigger contributor than Rosario last season (based on WAR). Unless one believes that Rosario is about to blossom into something he wasn't last season, why trade for him? I have no answer real answer to that. I hope the Marlins look elsewhere for a deal.

[lou]

It won’t be long before Isan Diaz is our highest ranked prospect

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I mean, isn’t Rosario kind of like a better hitting Hechavarria who isn’t as good as a defender as Hechavarria?

No. Rosario a year ago was a FV60/65 prospect (higher than Brinson). They think he's going to hit. Short write up - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/inst...-amed-rosario/

He was 22 all of 2018. There is a lot to like here. He started hitting a bit more Aug 1. onwards so he showed some flashes. Personally, I like him a lot.

He's actually the # 1 guy I would be interested in on the Mets.

[lou]

That's a very fair question. Miguel Rojas was a far bigger contributor than Rosario last season (based on WAR). Unless one believes that Rosario is about to blossom into something he wasn't last season, why trade for him? I have no answer real answer to that. I hope the Marlins look elsewhere for a deal.

But he wasn't on how you view things.

Rosario 1.5 - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...18&position=SS
Rojas 1 - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...02&position=SS

Personally, I think using Fangraphs (fWAR) is a better idea as it emphasizes the hard peripherals stronger, i.e. which is suggestive of an actual performance level rather than sample size swings in production. I suspect you are looking at ESPN, which uses rWAR from Baseball Reference. Basically, fWAR adjusts for a comical BABIP or FIP (why Jon Gray is valued very highly, which I am fine with because he is good and is stuck in the hell of Colorado), adjusts on a larger sample size for park factors, includes pitch framing (and rWAR does not), bases defense on FIP (rWAR adjusts for "team" defense which isn't a thing in an individualized sport), etc. https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...mparison.shtml

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Talk about a dream come true for a 30-year-old pitcher with a career WAR of 9, a 4.16 career ERA and WHIP of an ungodly 1.35! Nathan Eovaldi is about to score a multi-year contract for $17M per!!! What are the odds that ends well for Boston? Maybe one in ten?

He'll be 29 next year and has elite stuff. It takes time for some guys to put it together. He's a good pitcher. I'd only be concerned guaranteeing a 4th year. That's the price of a solid arm in free agency these days.

Boston definitely doesn't know how to run their franchise.

[fish16]

It won’t be long before Isan Diaz is our highest ranked prospect

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I mean, isn’t Rosario kind of like a better hitting Hechavarria who isn’t as good as a defender as Hechavarria?

no, rosario is nothing at all like hech. rosario was the number 1 prospect in baseball before he came up last year according to many. Hech is hech and was always hech throughout his entire minor league system. If they go after Rosario they better be damn confident he will improve with more experience at the plate which is a pretty good bet.

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Eovaldi is decent enough but I absolutely hate those types of contracts. It is a little different given their team salary and how many young guys they have under team control but im my opinion mid tier free agents for market value are the least efficient way to spend your money. Id go after stars and bounce back type guys for cheap short term deals exclusively barring special circumstances. Eovaldi and the red sox given their team might be that special circumstance though. I just think Eovaldi will always be that guy who can look great one month and then look like ricky nolasco the next.

[Lee Stone]

But he wasn't on how you view things.

Rosario 1.5 - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...18&position=SS
Rojas 1 - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...02&position=SS

Personally, I think using Fangraphs (fWAR) is a better idea as it emphasizes the hard peripherals stronger, i.e. which is suggestive of an actual performance level rather than sample size swings in production. I suspect you are looking at ESPN, which uses rWAR from Baseball Reference. Basically, fWAR adjusts for a comical BABIP or FIP (why Jon Gray is valued very highly, which I am fine with because he is good and is stuck in the hell of Colorado), adjusts on a larger sample size for park factors, includes pitch framing (and rWAR does not), bases defense on FIP (rWAR adjusts for "team" defense which isn't a thing in an individualized sport), etc. https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...mparison.shtml

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He'll be 29 next year and has elite stuff. It takes time for some guys to put it together. He's a good pitcher. I'd only be concerned guaranteeing a 4th year. That's the price of a solid arm in free agency these days.

Boston definitely doesn't know how to run their franchise.

When a team has vast resources, it can screw up w/o disasterous consequences. Tip of the hat to BoSox Carl Crawford and Pablo Sandoval contracts.

[lou]

And more on this. Rojas is a good player either way you look at him.

This is how you do the Mets deal. You give them Rojas (2 years of control), you give them some pitching (Conley, Straily, or Wittgren), and you eat some money (Lagares).


Mets

Rosario probably has a surplus value around $60 million with 5 years of control and strong likelihood he'll be a 2 WAR player (judging WAR based on $8 million a year in free agency, which I can't find the link but FG moved it to that. 10 WAR x 8 - $20 anticipated arbitration). There is tremendous upside here he beats it.

Nimmo is probably closer to a 2.5 WAR guy versus what he did last year, and will get higher arbitration numbers with more "power" numbers, he's probably worth $60-70

Conforto is worth the same ($60-70), as he's probably a 3.5 WAR guy over 3 years.

Gimenez is a FV55 hitting prospect, so he is a $40+ surplus value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/)

Alonso is a solid FV50 prospect, so he comes in around $25-30 in surplus value

Petersen, as a FV50 pitcher, is slotted lower so he is $15-20

Nido, is a FV45/40 guy, $5-8 in surplus value. He's basically a throw in. (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putt...e-the-top-100/)

Other Mets guys outside top 10 - probably $3-5 million

Lagares makes $9 million, I view this as neutral or dead money as he always gets hurt.



Marlins

Realmuto, since we're judging the Mets guys in the best light, we're giving full value to Realmuto so he's a $70 million surplus, however since a team can sign him for 5 years on a reasonable deal more than likely, I'm going to tick him up to a 4+ WAR player over 5 years. That's $80-90 million in value. Here's where the "NL East Overpay" kicks in.

Rojas is probably worth $10+ as a positive bench player

Conley is worth $10-15, less if he gets saves

Wittgren is worth $10-15 also, less if he gets saves



It's just adding this up from here. I think I over-stretched a bit yesterday. These guys are actually pretty solidly valuable and it'll be tough to get all of them with their MLB values. The most creative thing I can say is:

Realmuto, Rojas, and one of Conley/Wittgren is probably worth $90-120 in value depending on the eye of a beholder. If it's an NL East "overpay" and "beat the Braves" we're clearly at the top end of that scale.

There are two paths, the Rosario or the Gimenez:

Nimmo/Conforto and Rosario are basically $120, and if you chuck in Nido, another nominal mets prospect, and Lagares to offset that money entirely, that works in a 5-3 deal.

Nimmo/Conforto and Gimenez are $100, Alonso and Nido get it to $130, and adding in Lagares knocks it down to $120 range. So this 5-3 also works.

It's basically, do you think Rosario and a throw in is more valuable than Gimenez and Alonso??

I think I spread the risk and try and do this:

Nimmo/Conforto, Gimenez, Alonso, Nido, and Lagares; for
Realmuto, Rojas, Conley/Wittgren

Also, you could add in D'Arnaud (clears more money for them) and add in Dean (they could use a benchish/replacement OF) and expand it a little, and that works out for everyone.

Of course, I'm ignoring Houston/Atlanta/Colorado have fun stuff, just thinking what's the best Mets deal. It's that with what they can move.

[Lee Stone]

And of course the Dodgers can blow them all out of the water with Smith, Lux and May or Ruiz, Lux and Ferguson.

[lou]

And of course the Dodgers can blow them all out of the water with Smith, Lux and May or Ruiz, Lux and Ferguson.

It's actually very comparable (Gimenez and the catchers, and, Alonso and Lux would be straight washes), but that Dodgers deal would be better if Lux is upgraded to a FV55 (which would be enormous, but he's probably just moving to a solid FV50. FG has suggested he's probably 80-100 range).

Marlins do good either way.

I don't care where he goes. Just do good.

[Erick]

Agreed but if u do it now u could likely get a Cleveland SP as Clev and NYM have discussed Nimmo for SP already

Not saying u get Kluber for Nimmo straight up but Kluber as #1 SP,Rosario as SS,David Peterson as SP prospect and stopgap C is pretty solid package

Wait, what?

[Namaste]

I feel like there’s close to zero chance that the Marlins eat Lagares $$$$$

[lou]

I feel like there’s close to zero chance that the Marlins eat Lagares $$$$$

If you can get the same deal value wise from ATL/HOU/etc., of course not.

I'm just bored and that's how I personally see it with the Mets. I don't like any deal where you aren't getting 3 of Nimmo, Conforto, Rosario, Gimenez, McNeil, and Alonso. Maybe I could settle for Petersen as a third guy. That is objectively a lot of value. Those Mets dudes don't suck.

That being said, if the Marlins do ship to the Mets Realmuto, Conley, and Rojas, and take back 4 club controlled guys and Lagares, it's a salary neutral deal so they will not have added any money and gotten 20 combined years of club control of younger high upside players. If it's Conforto, you've added a little bit of money, but that is an easy flip to someone for prospects so you get to salary neutral fast.

I think it's a real good kicker, and a healthy Lagares is an ideal 4th OF for a contender to trade at the deadline. He kind of fills a need as the Marlins need an OF until August FOR SURE.

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Also, isn't this the narrative - we're building and getting the best players

They went overslot in 2018 draft, spent BIG on VVM, why not allocate a little extra money to salary dump an OF in a trade to get a better 2nd or 3rd player? That's staying on brand.

This is what they should be doing. Their low payroll is a blessing. Take on the dumpster fires (take D'Arnaud too, who cares!), and get the better guys (assuming Mets are offering the best guys, which is highly debatable).

This is how the franchise won also - Mike Hampton. That move was brilliant.