2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

You're completely missing the point.

I see the point differently, that's all.

[lou]

I see the point differently, that's all.

What rug was that? The Marlins paid $5M plus and a number of players for just another prospect with a 50 scouting grade - the Marlins now have 16 such prospects, almost all acquired for much less than VV.

And all of us reject your alternative facts.

I mean, of course you have something negative to say about one of the best things they've done on a scouting and talent acquisition level in years. Also, at any given time, there is probably only around (and being very generous as Fangraphs will say its half of this), 150-200 FV50+ prospects in baseball, so the fact they got one with just IFA money (plus basically Barraclough) where each team should only have 4-6 on average is a pretty solid move. But:

Brinson, Monte, Diaz - Yelich. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Alcantara - Ozuna. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Neidert - Gordon. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Guzman, Devers - Stanton. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Scott, Garret, Rogers - # 1 draft picks. The signing bonuses are a little less on a pure monetary output level ($4 range), but you're also talking 3-4 years of development and time at minimum to get them MLB ready. It's just hard to say VVM is more expensive or cheaper than this. This is a push at worst on acquisition costs.

So what you're left with is, the Marlins paid less money for their 2nd/3rd rounders (Banfield, Pompey, Miller, O. Johnson, we'll throw in Anderson here too), all of which who aren't as good prospects as VVM which makes sense based on what they all got, and got a steal with E. Cabrera, who got a $100k signing bonus according to 15 seconds on google.

So what we're left with here is, you're ridiculous as usual, and besides E. Cabrera who clearly wins best cost/benefit here (by a mile), VVM was acquired at slightly more money than what a normal mid-1st rounder would have cost. That's a great move, especially when you consider there is years of tape on him versus the risks in drafting an 18 year old kid, and getting those 18 year olds to 22 year olds costs you resources the Marlins don't have to spend with VVM.

I think I might go as far as saying, past Cabrera because he cost nothing, and Anderson with a complete hindsight bias based on how solid he was in 2017, this is the next best move they have made on a pure talent acquisition level from the 1st year MLB and under category of players.

Be happy Lee. This is a win.

[Lee Stone]

And all of us reject your alternative facts.

I mean, of course you have something negative to say about one of the best things they've done on a scouting and talent acquisition level in years. Also, at any given time, there is probably only around (and being very generous as Fangraphs will say its half of this), 150-200 FV50+ prospects in baseball, so the fact they got one with just IFA money (plus basically Barraclough) where each team should only have 4-6 on average is a pretty solid move. But:

Brinson, Monte, Diaz - Yelich. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Alcantara - Ozuna. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Neidert - Gordon. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Guzman, Devers - Stanton. Not less than VV. Way more than VV.

Scott, Garret, Rogers - # 1 draft picks. The signing bonuses are a little less on a pure monetary output level ($4 range), but you're also talking 3-4 years of development and time at minimum to get them MLB ready. It's just hard to say VVM is more expensive or cheaper than this. This is a push at worst on acquisition costs.

So what you're left with is, the Marlins paid less money for their 2nd/3rd rounders (Banfield, Pompey, Miller, O. Johnson, we'll throw in Anderson here too), all of which who aren't as good prospects as VVM which makes sense based on what they all got, and got a steal with E. Cabrera, who got a $100k signing bonus according to 15 seconds on google.

So what we're left with here is, you're ridiculous as usual, and besides E. Cabrera who clearly wins best cost/benefit here (by a mile), VVM was acquired at slightly more money than what a normal mid-1st rounder would have cost. That's a great move, especially when you consider there is years of tape on him versus the risks in drafting an 18 year old kid, and getting those 18 year olds to 22 year olds costs you resources the Marlins don't have to spend with VVM.

I think I might go as far as saying, past Cabrera because he cost nothing, and Anderson with a complete hindsight bias based on how solid he was in 2017, this is the next best move they have made on a pure talent acquisition level from the 1st year MLB and under category of players.

Be happy Lee. This is a win.

It's abstract thinking to apply monetary numbers to guys like Neidert, Guzman, and Devers when Gordon and Stanton were straight salary dumps. If you want to put on an analytical thinking cap, explain how Jordan Yamamoto comes in as the number 17 prospect. His age is right between Neidert and Alcantara (top five guys) and he has outperformed both of them. In Arizona right now (small sample) he is pitching at the level of the top pitching prospects out there. Limited to 13 appearances (after injury) in the last MiL season, he never gave up more than 2 ER in any of them. He has shown steady improvement with each advancing level.

I am very happy to have acquired Mesa. I'd like speedy, athletic guys at every position. However, I have no basis to think he will become some sort of headliner for Miami.

[emkayseven]

Do you understand the concept of projection?

Yamamoto is ranked lower because he has less of a chance of hitting a high ceiling. He’s 6’0 and throws 90 MPH. He may very well become a rotation regular, and the others could flame out, but they are ranked higher because they project higher.

[Lee Stone]

Do you understand the concept of projection?

Yamamoto is ranked lower because he has less of a chance of hitting a high ceiling. He’s 6’0 and throws 90 MPH. He may very well become a rotation regular, and the others could flame out, but they are ranked higher because they project higher.

Projection is imagined and production is real. Will Nick Neidert or Sandy Alcantara ever strike out 11 per 9? No way. That's not Yamamoto's ceiling; that's his current reality.

[fish16]

Projection is imagined and production is real. Will Nick Neidert or Sandy Alcantara ever strike out 11 per 9? No way. That's not Yamamoto's ceiling; that's his current reality.

Dude you’re just never going to get it

[Lee Stone]

Not as long as I am constrained by logic.

[lou]

Not as long as I am constrained by logic.

So why wasn't Jeremy Hermida and Yusmiero Petit all-star level players for the prime of their careers? Their A+/AA numbers were FANTASTIC.

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Why isn't Matt Wieters the best catcher ever? He hit .360/.455/.600 (rough estimate) in A+/AA in 2008 in over 500 PA. 15% walk rate and 14% K rate.

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Logan Morrison hit roughly .290/.415/.475, 18% BB, 17% BB, 13 K% in over 600 PA between AA in 2009/2010.

What happened?

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JT Realmuto hit approximately .245/.315/.350, 8% BB, 14% K, in over 850 PA between A/A+ in 2011-2012.

He's now a top 30ish overall position player in baseball.

What happened?

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Jose Ramirez hit .272/.325/.349 in 2013 in AA, in 533 PA. 3 HR

He just hit .272/.388/.555 in 2018 at the MLB level, 698 PA and 39(!) HR.

What happened Lee? Why is Jose Ramirez not his AA self?

[Lee Stone]

JT Realmuto improved at every level. Yamamoto has done the same. That's really the very point, isn't it? Some guys improve and others don't.

[lou]

JT Realmuto improved at every level. Yamamoto has done the same. That's really the very point, isn't it? Some guys improve and others don't.

And why do they improve and some don't Lee.

Is it because their skill set may translate better at higher levels?

Such as, maybe it's harder to hit 99 MPH fastballs versus 90 MPH fastballs? Is that plausible? Could that be a reason why 100% of the baseball scouting community believes Alcantara and Guzman are better than Yamamoto?

Maybe it's because, guys like Hermida can get away with walking constantly and sitting on breaking balls in AA with not so great pitchers with fringy control, and when those 99 MPH fastballs with control get to him at the MLB level, he can't hit them? Could that be it?

[fish16]

Not as long as I am constrained by logic.

Its not logic. You frame it as your opinion being different but its just that you dont know how to evaluate talent and upside aside from numbers. its like you claiming the earth is flat and then just saying that we have differing opinions when it is clear that you are just wrong rather than having a different opinion.

[Lee Stone]

The future holds the answers. If one thing is certain, relying on a speed gun (which the "scouts" do) can get you in a lot of trouble. It gets you a Kolek instead of an actual pitcher like Nola in a draft.

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And why do they improve and some don't Lee.

Is it because their skill set may translate better at higher levels?

Such as, maybe it's harder to hit 99 MPH fastballs versus 90 MPH fastballs? Is that plausible? Could that be a reason why 100% of the baseball scouting community believes Alcantara and Guzman are better than Yamamoto?

Maybe it's because, guys like Hermida can get away with walking constantly and sitting on breaking balls in AA with not so great pitchers with fringy control, and when those 99 MPH fastballs with control get to him at the MLB level, he can't hit them? Could that be it?

Obviously, Yamamoto has a better inventory of pitches than Alcantara.

[lou]

Obviously, Yamamoto has a better inventory of pitches than Alcantara.

And Yusmiero Petit had a better inventory of pitches than both of them in A+/AA

[Lee Stone]

And Yusmiero Petit had a better inventory of pitches than both of them in A+/AA

Petit, in all likelihood, was better over the last two seasons than Alcantara will ever be.

I actually think you believe that Jorge Guzman, with his 1.54 WHIP at Jupiter, is a better ML prospect than Jordan Yamamoto. Hop aboard, posters! Let's monitor that as time goes by.

[lou]

I actually think you believe that Jorge Guzman, with his 1.54 WHIP at Jupiter, is a better ML prospect than Jordan Yamamoto. Hop aboard, posters! Let's monitor that as time goes by.

Lee buddy.

100% of people (excluding you) believe that.

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http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=mia

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/miami-marlins-top-10-prospects-updated/

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1027/miami-marlins/